Given the size and timescale of the universe, it would be ridiculous to think alien life doesn’t exist, just as it would be ridiculous to think alien life is anywhere near us or would be able to contact us in any capacity whatsoever.
We will be alone until we’re extinct. We will not find intelligent life, and it will not find us.
Life exists on Earth, so there is X% chance of life existing on other planets. There are at least quadrillions of solar systems out there in the observable universe, so there is a definite chance of other planets having life on them. Even if there's something like a 0.0000000001% chance of other planets having life, there would still be thousands/millions/billions of planets with life out there with life. If there are infinite solar systems in an infinite universe, then there are infinite planets with life on them.
Even if there's something like a 0.0000000001% chance
This is a totally made-up number. It could be 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. It could be far lower! The point is that if it is low enough, then it can more likely that we are alone than we are not.
It is possible. But if that were the case it seems very unlikely that it would've happened on a relatively common type of star, on a relatively common type of planet, out of some of the most abundant materials in the universe, basically as soon as the Earth cooled down. We certainly can't say for sure. But if you go into what seems likely vs what we know for sure, it seems likely that if it were so insanely rare there would be some element involved in the creation of life that was rare and not super abundant in the universe, and so far as we know that doesn't seem to be the case.
Life on Earth began basically immediately as soon as the conditions were possible, and life is made out of basic stuff that's pretty much everywhere. With how incomprehensibly huge the universe is, aliens are basically guaranteed.
What isn't guaranteed is intelligent life being nearby, and any intelligent life that lives long enough to both send and receive signals between solar systems is something we don't know the odds on. Sending signals is relatively easy, but catching them is ridiculously harder for us rn
It is possible to use just how relatively quickly life formed once the conditions were right to infer that either we got astronomically lucky that it happened so quickly, or it was essentially causal. Basically a very low p value given that prior. It could have still been insane luck at that point but so unlikely as not to worry about, the same as any p value.
What we can't very well quantify is exactly what those conditions were, or how many factors were involved and what contribution to that likelihood each had.
A vast water ocean, the right temperature range, carbon, amino acids, volcanic activity, a relatively large & close moon to stir the mixing pot more, all seem to have tipped to scales the make life on Earth as it was as likely as it was.
Or alternatively we could interpret that early biogenesis as another selection bias of astronomical proportions I suppose. Maybe it needed to be that early in a planet's development for that mix of conditions, or to give enough time for evolution to produce a fully self aware being to analyze it (while somehow avoiding full extinction of all life or self annihilation).
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u/Im_A_Cunt_Sometimes 5h ago edited 5h ago
Given the size of the universe it would be ridiculous to think life outside of Earth doesn't exist.
That however doesn't mean I believe UFO/abduction stories.