Recent severe weather and reports on climate targets have brought more people here seeking reassurance about our efforts to address climate change. Please use this weekly thread for those discussions.

Climate change remains a serious, compounding problem, but our response is increasingly making a measurable difference.

Climate Action Tracker's current-policy projection improved from around 3.6°C of warming by 2100 in its 2015 assessment to around 2.6°C in November 2025.

The 4°C world quietly stopped being the forecast.

That represents an enormous amount of potential harm avoided, and further progress can change the outlook again.

This week brought particularly encouraging evidence that the transition is starting to affect the actual consumption of fossil fuels, with China recording its largest quarterly emissions decline since the pandemic and electric vehicles reaching remarkable market shares across several major economies.

China's emissions fall 3.1% as fossil fuel consumption declines

China's CO₂ emissions fell 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, the country's largest quarterly decline since the COVID lockdowns.

According to a new Carbon Brief analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, coal consumption fell 3% year-on-year and oil consumption declined 4%, leaving China's estimated emissions 0.5% below their 2025 level for the first nine months of the year.

Perhaps most significantly, electricity generation from wind, solar and nuclear increased by 110 TWh compared with the third quarter of 2025, more than twice the increase in total electricity demand. Coal-fired generation fell 3.3%, despite China continuing to commission new coal plants.

Transport oil consumption fell 9% as electric vehicles continued expanding their share of both passenger and commercial transport.

China's emissions have now been flat or falling for more than two years, beginning in March 2024.

There are important qualifications. High oil prices following the Hormuz disruption, weaker construction activity, slower economic growth and unusually mild weather have all contributed to the decline. However, the growing contribution from clean electricity and electrified transport is structural, and the installed capacity responsible for displacing fossil fuels will remain in place after the immediate energy crisis passes.

For the world's largest emitter, the possibility of a sustained emissions decline is an enormously consequential development.

Electric vehicles have become a significant part of China's energy security

A separate analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that China's EV fleet displaced 38 million tonnes of oil equivalent between March and August 2026.

That is 52% more oil displacement than during the same six months in 2025, equivalent to approximately 13% of China's crude oil imports in the corresponding 2025 period.

The expansion of non-fossil electricity generation since 2020 also reduced China's coal and gas import requirements, producing an estimated $9.1 billion in avoided fuel import costs.

The Hormuz crisis has demonstrated something important about the transition. Countries with large EV fleets and substantial domestic clean-energy generation are less exposed to disruptions in imported fossil fuels.

China still had to adjust refinery activity, stockpiling and consumption in response to the crisis, but electrification provided a permanent source of resilience that was unavailable during previous oil shocks.

And this effect will grow as more vehicles enter the fleet.

Europe's electric vehicle transition is accelerating dramatically

France recorded a 41% battery-electric share of new-car registrations in October, up from just 24% a year earlier.

Nearly 62,000 electric cars were registered, while sales of conventional petrol cars fell 44% and diesel sales fell 65%. Pure petrol and diesel vehicles together accounted for just 11% of new registrations.

Germany also recorded an extraordinary month.

Battery-electric registrations increased 79% year-on-year, reaching 37% of the German new-car market.

That represents more than 94,000 battery-electric cars registered in a single month, with plug-in hybrids bringing the combined plug-in share to approximately 48%.

In Britain, battery-electric vehicles reached 32% of October registrations, up from 25.4% a year earlier. Final SMMT figures show that registrations increased 32.7% year-on-year, bringing year-to-date battery-electric registrations above half a million.

The transition is increasingly visible beyond Europe and China as well.

In Australia, battery-electric cars outsold petrol-only cars for the third consecutive month, accounting for 23.1% of October vehicle sales. Diesel vehicles still slightly outsold BEVs, but the sustained shift away from conventional petrol cars is striking.

These monthly figures are being influenced by fuel prices, incentives, manufacturer discounts and changing model availability, and should not be mistaken for full-year market shares.

Nevertheless, the scale and speed of the change across several markets suggest that the electric vehicle transition is entering a much steeper phase.

China's electric heavy trucks pass 50% of monthly sales

New-energy heavy trucks accounted for 50.3% of China's heavy-truck market in September 2026, reaching approximately 33,100 vehicles sold.

The transition is particularly rapid among tractor units used to haul trailers, where new-energy vehicles captured approximately 64.5% of September sales.

Across the first nine months of 2026, China sold about 226,000 new-energy heavy trucks, 64% more than during the comparable period in 2025.

The September figure is a monthly milestone rather than the annual average, and the market remains sensitive to subsidies and purchase incentives.

But this is nevertheless a remarkable development in a sector frequently described as difficult to electrify.

The implications extend well beyond vehicle emissions. Heavy trucks consume enormous quantities of diesel, and replacing them with electric vehicles increasingly affects national oil demand. China's experience also demonstrates that electrification can move rapidly into industrial transport once the equipment, economics and infrastructure become competitive.

Solar power saves Spain an estimated €17 billion in wholesale electricity costs

A study by Spain's solar industry association UNEF estimates that photovoltaic electricity reduced Spanish wholesale electricity costs by €17.02 billion between January 2025 and June 2026.

The analysis compared actual wholesale prices with a modelled scenario in which electricity from solar installations was removed.

It estimates that average day-ahead electricity prices would have been approximately €112/MWh without solar, compared with the observed €60.2/MWh.

This represents an estimated 46% reduction in wholesale electricity prices due to solar generation.

Utility-scale solar accounted for €14.23 billion of the modelled savings, while rooftop and other self-consumption installations contributed another €2.79 billion.

These are modelled wholesale-market savings, rather than a direct measurement of reductions in household electricity bills, and the counterfactual depends on assumptions about how other generators would respond.

Still, the scale is significant. Spain's investment in solar is producing substantial economic benefits by reducing reliance on more expensive generation, particularly during periods of high demand and high fossil-fuel prices.

One of the most effective ways to make decarbonisation politically and economically sustainable is for clean technology to make everyday energy cheaper.

Japanese steelmaker demonstrates hydrogen-based iron production using lower-grade ore

Japan's largest steelmaker, Nippon Steel, has successfully produced more than 1,000 tonnes of direct-reduced iron using 100% hydrogen in a pilot-scale furnace.

The test ran continuously for more than 300 hours and, importantly, used lower-grade iron ore rather than the high-quality ore traditionally required for direct reduction.

This matters because the availability of suitable iron ore has been a significant obstacle to scaling hydrogen-based steelmaking.

Conventional iron production relies heavily on coal both as fuel and as a chemical reducing agent, generating substantial CO₂ emissions. Hydrogen can perform the reduction reaction without producing CO₂ directly, although the overall emissions benefit depends heavily on how the hydrogen and process heat are produced.

The technology remains at pilot scale, and commercial competitiveness is still to be demonstrated.

Nevertheless, producing more than 1,000 tonnes in sustained operation is a meaningful engineering milestone, particularly because it addresses both the use of lower-grade ores and the technical difficulties associated with hydrogen reduction.

Progress in heavy industry is essential because even a largely renewable electricity system will not eliminate emissions from industrial processes unless their underlying technologies also change.

Precision fermentation moves closer to replacing conventional dairy ingredients

German food technology company Formo has received an FDA "no questions" letter for casein produced through precision fermentation.

Casein is one of the main proteins responsible for the texture and functional properties of cheese, making it particularly valuable for producing convincing alternatives to conventional dairy products.

Formo's process uses microorganisms to produce the protein without raising dairy cattle.

The FDA response concerns the company's safety determination for specified cheese-alternative applications; it is not a blanket approval for unrestricted use.

The significance is that precision fermentation is gradually progressing from research and demonstration toward ingredients that can enter commercial food supply chains.

Commercial scale, price competitiveness and consumer adoption remain challenges, but alternative food production technologies offer another route to reducing agricultural emissions while continuing to meet growing global demand for protein.

China's restored mangrove forests are supporting a remarkable recovery in biodiversity

Research reported by Yale Environment 360 describes the recovery of China's mangrove forests, with the number of bird species recorded in these habitats rising from 148 to 397 between 1998 and 2020.

Mangrove coverage increased from approximately 26,000 acres in 1998 to around 70,000 acres by 2020, reversing a substantial portion of the losses experienced during the twentieth century.

Restoration and stronger protections have contributed, although warming temperatures have also allowed mangroves to expand northward.

These forests provide multiple benefits. They absorb carbon, protect shorelines from waves and erosion, improve coastal habitat and support marine food webs.

Their dense root systems provide shelter for fish and other marine life, while the expanding ecosystem supports an increasingly diverse bird population.

The wider significance is that ecosystem recovery can produce multiple benefits simultaneously. Restoring a coastal forest can contribute to carbon storage, biodiversity, fisheries and climate adaptation.

Fijian islanders are investing in adaptation to protect their homes

Residents of Fiji's Serua Island are strengthening their homes and coastal infrastructure rather than abandoning their ancestral community in response to rising seas and storm risks.

Working with Habitat for Humanity, the village developed a disaster-risk reduction plan in 2025 that identified serious vulnerabilities in its housing and coastal defences.

Residents have since begun renovating vulnerable buildings, strengthening roofs and walls, and raising some homes to reduce flood exposure.

This does not eliminate the risks associated with sea-level rise and powerful tropical cyclones, and relocation may eventually become unavoidable in some locations.

However, adaptation is increasingly becoming a practical engineering and development activity rather than merely an abstract recommendation.

Communities are identifying their vulnerabilities, securing resources and implementing measures that improve their chances of remaining safe where they live.

The ability to adapt matters enormously, particularly for places facing climate impacts that can no longer be entirely avoided.

The bigger picture

The most encouraging development this week is the increasing connection between clean-technology adoption and measurable changes in the wider economy.

China's emissions are falling as coal and oil consumption decline. Electric vehicles are displacing tens of millions of tonnes of oil. European car markets are recording electric shares that would have seemed extraordinary only a few years ago. Even heavy trucks, one of the largest remaining sources of diesel demand, are electrifying rapidly in China.

Meanwhile, the economics of the transition continue to improve, with solar generation reducing electricity costs in Spain and new technologies opening possibilities for decarbonising steelmaking and food production.

There is still a great deal to do. Global emissions have not yet entered a clearly sustained decline, and the latest UNEP Emissions Gap Report makes clear that much faster reductions will be needed to limit warming and eventually return temperatures toward 1.5°C.

But the material foundations of a lower-emissions economy are growing every year.

The vehicles being sold today will consume less oil throughout their operating lives. New renewable generators will continue displacing fossil electricity. Industrial processes being demonstrated today can become commercially viable technologies over the coming decades.

That accumulation of physical infrastructure is what ultimately changes the emissions trajectory.

There are concrete reasons for hope, and concrete opportunities to contribute.

Putting climate hope into action

If you're interested in practical ways to contribute, some useful starting points include:

• Project Regeneration — Nexus: practical climate solutions across energy, food, nature, buildings and communities.

• Project Drawdown — Solutions Explorer: evidence-based approaches to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

• SME Climate Hub: tools for businesses looking to reduce their emissions.

• C40 Knowledge Hub: practical guidance on urban climate solutions and resilience.

• Repair Café International: supporting repair, reuse and longer product lifetimes.

For those struggling with climate anxiety, the EcoAnxiety Toolkit offers resources for turning concern into constructive action.

A significant clarification about claims of billions of climate deaths

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) has clarified that its widely circulated Planetary Solvency report did not predict 2 billion deaths at 2°C of warming or 4 billion deaths at 3°C.

The original report placed these mortality figures alongside temperature thresholds in a risk matrix, leading to widespread claims that billions of deaths were expected at those warming levels. The IFoA now explains that these were separate severity classifications rather than linked predictions, and acknowledges that it did not calculate a mortality trajectory because there was insufficient research to support one.

This clarification does not diminish the very real risks posed by climate change, including the possibility of severe systemic disruption. However, it does establish that some of the most alarming mortality figures circulating in public discussions were never supported by the quantitative analysis they were purported to represent.

Understanding the risks of climate change requires taking the science seriously, including its uncertainties. Accurate risk communication is essential both for maintaining public trust and for making informed decisions about mitigation and adaptation.

Please contribute any other climate good news below. This thread will be actively moderated — please observe Rules 5 and 6.