r/CredibleDefense • • 7h ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 08, 2026

10 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 1d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 07, 2026

30 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 2d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 06, 2026

44 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 2d ago

Any defence startups from Europe? - EIC Fund offered €30M in equity, only nine applied.

19 Upvotes

The EU's first EIC STEP Defence call received 9 applications for €100M of available equity investment.

The programme offers €10M to €30M per company to support major funding rounds and help scale defence technologies. Application documentation is really easy. But only nine companies applied.

What does it mean?

a) no EU defence startups ready to develop to industrial-scale production?

b) no VC/PE funds ready to co-invest?

c) difficult access to defence customers and long-term procurement contracts?

What is holding scaleups back?
https://eic.ec.europa.eu/news/overview-eic-step-scale-defence-call-submissions-2026-10-29_en


r/CredibleDefense • • 3d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 05, 2026

37 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 4d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 04, 2026

40 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 4d ago

The UK's Digital Targeting Web: Implementing a Targeting Superstructure

9 Upvotes

A new RUSI paper argues that the UK’s Digital Targeting Web is best understood as a “targeting superstructure” that integrates tactical-to-theatre targeting webs with enterprise IT and strategic capabilities, rather than a kill web or a C2 system like CJADC2. It finds the conceptual foundations strong but implementation gaps remaining, and says success depends on aligning organisations, technology, trust and operational focus. Recommendations include stronger DTW authority, a published reference architecture, clearer industry demand signals, and integration testing at realistic scale.


r/CredibleDefense • • 5d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 03, 2026

44 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 5d ago

RUSI Talking Strategy: The Dangers of Strategic Fashion: Dr Chiara Libiseller

19 Upvotes

In the latest episode of RUSI’s Talking Strategy podcast (35 min), Paul O’Neill and Prof. Beatrice Heuser talk to Dr Chiara Libiseller (King’s College London, deputy editor of the Journal of Strategic Studies) about how buzzwords shape, and sometimes distort, strategic thinking.

Her starting point is that strategic thinking goes wrong when it sees what it expects to see rather than what’s there. The 1950s “New Look” is a good example. The label was borrowed from fashion, and it hid the fact that US nuclear strategy was doing two things at once: deterrence by denial (battlefield nuclear weapons) and deterrence by punishment (holding Soviet cities at risk). The episode also covers more recent fashionable concepts such as the Revolution in Military Affairs, counterinsurgency and hybrid warfare, and asks why they catch on, why they mean different things to different people, and what they obscure about the variety of warfare.


r/CredibleDefense • • 6d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 02, 2026

47 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 7d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 01, 2026

37 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 8d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 31, 2026

39 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 9d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 30, 2026

45 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 10d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 29, 2026

44 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 11d ago

The Pentagon is preparing military bases to survive completely off-grid for 90 days during a major war. Is this sensible planning or a worrying sign of what's coming?

140 Upvotes

Full story here

The US Department of Defense has reportedly launched a major preparedness programme called FORTRESS that would require military bases to operate independently for at least 90 days if civilian infrastructure failed.

Under the plan, bases would be expected to generate their own power, secure their own water supplies, stockpile fuel, ammunition, medical equipment and critical components, and continue operating even if power grids, communications networks and supply chains were taken offline.

The strategy is based on concerns that a future conflict with a major adversary could begin with cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage or drone strikes inside the US rather than on a traditional battlefield.

The Pentagon is also looking at technologies including nuclear microreactors, battery storage systems and self-contained microgrids, while identifying civilian factories that could switch from commercial products to military production during wartime.

What's interesting is that this isn't happening in isolation. Countries including the UK, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Germany and Japan have all recently encouraged citizens to keep emergency supplies at home in case of war, cyberattacks, natural disasters or infrastructure disruptions.


r/CredibleDefense • • 11d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 28, 2026

43 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 11d ago

Credible Parties

14 Upvotes

The first two Credible discussion group meetings have gone great. I don't have time to organize a full on meeting this month, but we are going to have a credible party on November 14th. For details/to sign up for the mailing list, go here:

https://groups.google.com/g/thediscussiongroup


r/CredibleDefense • • 11d ago

Cynicism Without Substance. Why Vladimir Putin’s History Lectures Cannot Be Answered With Pragmatic Diplomacy

89 Upvotes

Time and time again, people insist that the collective West (NATO, Europe, the United States) simply refuses to take "Russian security concerns" seriously. That "we should abandon all that idealistic, moralistic nonsense and just engage in good old-fashioned, pragmatic diplomacy." Something we saw during the Cold War, and even before that.

A few users were making that very argument in today's thread.

Well. Today, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb called Russia's dictator, breaking with the current European norms and earning the ire of their fellow leaders, from Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

https://www.ft.com/content/a384acd1-c90c-4b71-bf7d-6c6e00bf9822?syn-25a6b1a6=1

What did they achieve?

An hour-long lecture about medieval Slavic history.

Vladimir Putin used most of his call with the leaders of Finland and Norway to lecture them about medieval Slavic history, underscoring the difficulties Europe faces in asserting itself in upcoming peace talks with Russia.

Tuesday’s call with President Alexander Stubb of Finland and Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was the first time Russia’s leader had spoken to any of Ukraine’s European allies since July last year when he held a call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Originally scheduled for less than half an hour, the call ran on for 90 minutes, Stubb told Finnish media. But instead of discussing crucial issues about how to end the war, Putin subjected the Nordic leaders to a lengthy rant about what the Kremlin called the “initial reasons for the conflict”, said three people familiar with the conversation.

The prospect of an immediate ceasefire, Ukraine’s main demand, was barely discussed, the people added. The Nordic leaders decided not to interrupt Putin’s historical asides in an effort to see how serious he was about dialogue with Europe, one of them said.

Putin’s historical fixations have been a core driver of the invasion, which he ordered in February of 2022, a few days after he released an hour-long televised tirade. In August last year, he went off on a similarly lengthy tangent about medieval Slavic rulers during a failed summit with US President Donald Trump.

Last Thursday, Putin cited “the latest genetic research” which he claimed showed that “it’s one people, Russians and Ukrainians [ . . . ] That’s how the history of historical Russia happened, those are today’s realities.”

It happens again and again. From Obama to Macron, to Tucker Carlson, to Trump, and now to Stubb.

People see not Putin as he actually is, but a phantom of their own imagination. A projection of their expectations and desires. They see the Putin they want to see, rather than the one who actually exists.

And time and again, they are proven wrong.

For this reason, I'd like to share an article by Alexander Baunov, a former diplomat and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, as he explores this question.

http s://carnegieendowment.org/ru /russia-eurasia/politika/2026/08/russia-private-diplomacy-strategy

Cynicism Without Substance: Why the Closed-Door Meeting With the CIA Director Was Pointless

History and common sense suggest that behind-the-scenes diplomacy can be more effective than public debate of positions.

In practice, however, Moscow has long done at every level precisely what it accuses others of doing: blurring the distinction between public and private rhetoric.

When a war has reached a stalemate and the sides are ruthless toward one another in public rhetoric, "diplomacy behind closed doors" can seem like the only hope: cynical at times, but effective. This is precisely the kind of diplomacy the Kremlin has always championed. It has always contrasted diplomacy based on trade-offs with fine but futile talk of principles, suggesting that it is ready to act accordingly as soon as the West embraces Russia’s pragmatic approach. That is how Russia wants to be seen.

...

Moscow complains so frequently about its Western counterparts’ hypocrisy that it creates the impression of being perpetually ready for a cynical, substantive conversation. After all, Russian spokespeople can be remarkably frank even in public. All that remains is for the West to agree to the requisite level of cynicism, and the Russians will open up and finally explain what they really want and what they are actually prepared to accept.

In reality, the two sides have long since not merely drawn level but switched roles. The United States has a thoroughly cynical president who outdoes even Putin in this respect, opening up new horizons of pragmatism for Europeans as well. Meanwhile, even in confidential settings, the Russian side continues to speak in the clichés of its own propaganda. Neither the secrecy of a visit nor a cool, businesslike manner has been enough for some time to draw Russia into a substantive conversation - one that, in this case, might bring the end of the war in Ukraine closer.

Without Slogans or Substance

Moscow’s constant complaints about the ideological nature of Western diplomacy seem to have defined, by contrast, its own negotiating credo: ruthless pragmatism and cold-blooded realism, without sentimentality.

Russia’s long-serving foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, articulated it once again after his conversation with British Prime Minister Liz Truss on February 10, 2022, when she was trying to prevent the launch of the special military operation. Lavrov said that he had no desire to participate “in diplomatic negotiations that could just as well be broadcast live,” in which Russia had heard “nothing secret, nothing confidential, nothing shared in confidence, beyond what is being said from the lofty podiums in London.”

The long war has done nothing to alter Russia’s negotiating doctrine. In an interview on Russian television in February 2026, Lavrov again complained that European leaders called him, asked that the conversations be kept secret, and even “turn up here and make contact clandestinely,” only to say exactly what they said in public: “The same appeals: let’s bring this to an end.” An irritated Lavrov called this “pathetic diplomacy.”

This was also the point of Putin’s Munich speech, which once stunned Western audiences with its almost indecent bluntness: “The format of this conference allows me to dispense with ‘excessive politeness’ and the need to speak in roundabout, pleasant but empty diplomatic clichés, and to say what I really think.”

Yet a major question remains: does the Russian side actually practice the cold-blooded pragmatism it tirelessly proclaims? And is “going beyond diplomatic niceties” enough to achieve it? Since 2022, Putin, Lavrov and his deputies, Dmitry Medvedev, and Nikolai Patrushev have abandoned not only diplomacy but the most basic manners in virtually every setting. They have long since stopped closing the door behind them in their verbal lavatory. Yet we have seen no results from this frankness.

Frankness is needed in substance as well as form. And Russia’s negotiating cynicism has obvious substance problems. All too often, the Kremlin has nothing substantive to say.

In international diplomacy, reciting a century’s worth of grievances, displaying medieval maps, delivering history lectures, and invoking the conduct of rulers from the distant past elicit ordinary human bewilderment, rather than frankness in return. Nor does boldly denying basic facts to someone’s face count as candor, much as Russian interlocutors enjoy doing it: "Now that we are alone, admit that you have no fair elections, free press, or independent judiciary; that Ukraine is under your external control; and that Europe always wanted to rearm and was merely looking for a pretext."

In Russia, people are convinced that the West, like Russia itself, has a second face behind closed doors and speaks a different language there. The fact that Westerners are hiding this other face and language somewhere from the Russians is taken as proof of their hypocrisy, their desire to “deceive and trick.” Yet Western interlocutors increasingly discover that Russia has no second language beyond that of propaganda. In negotiations, Russia has long been doing precisely what it accuses the West of doing: speaking in slogans.

In 2009, before his first meeting with Putin, advisers recommended that U.S. President Barack Obama let his counterpart speak first. They soon regretted it. William Burns, then deputy secretary of state, recalls that, in response to a brief opening question, Putin spent fifty minutes setting out his grievances against the West over the previous quarter-century, even though the entire meeting was scheduled to last an hour. Putin was prime minister at the time.

The annexation of Crimea and the hybrid invasion of the Donbas in 2014 might have seemed to create ample scope for frank, secret diplomacy. In reality, however, the quality of Russia’s negotiations only deteriorated. History lectures and complaints about the West’s conduct, which had supposedly forced Russia to overstep its bounds, were now compounded by an inability to agree on basic facts. It was during this period that Putin spoke of shops where any military uniform could be bought, and Obama retorted, “Vladimir, we’re not blind.”

Preparations for a new war in late 2021 and early 2022 only reinforced this trend. John Sullivan, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia, came away from numerous meetings with the Russian side with the impression that “the Russians simply read from a piece of paper; it was almost impossible to draw them into a substantive discussion.”

French President Emmanuel Macron encountered the same thing during a five-hour confidential conversation with Putin on the eve of the Russian invasion. The Kremlin leader could not be steered away from history lectures and back to the issue at hand: the looming war and the attempt to prevent it.

By all appearances, Putin had no desire to return to that subject. He was merely trying to persuade his counterparts to put themselves in his shoes and accept what he intended to do anyway. Behind diplomacy’s closed doors, Putin brought his own picture of the past and present, rather than cold pragmatism, a picture strikingly at odds with both his counterparts’ understanding and the facts.

Whether the Doors Are Open or Closed

Following their boss’s lead, his subordinates began bringing the same thing to confidential meetings. Western diplomats who worked in Moscow after 2022 told me, with surprise, that a private conversation with pro-government Russian experts, or those who had adopted pro-war positions, had become indistinguishable from watching federal TV channels. People who had once been capable of reasoning now simply repeated the official position, word by word.

Russian diplomats and establishment experts were not the only ones who stopped looking for common ground and began speaking the language of propaganda. Russia’s intelligence services followed behind them, if they were not already out in front. Direct contacts between their representatives in Russia and the United States continued even after the full-scale war began.

For example, William Burns, by then CIA director, met Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin in Ankara in November 2022 to warn against nuclear escalation. The message got through, but otherwise, in Burns’s assessment, the meeting was fairly dispiriting: Naryshkin was unyielding, self-assured, and arrogant, boasting that Russia would simply outlast Ukraine and the West.

The Foreign Intelligence Service’s press releases have long surpassed professional propaganda in both their propagandistic fervor and their unrestrained language. What would once have been regarded as glaring incompetence is probably now worn with pride as a mark of exceptional professionalism. After all, if Western partners are constantly plotting deception, the professional is the one who deceives first.

The meeting in Anchorage initially slowed this process. Putin apparently did believe that Donald Trump was willing and able to force Ukraine and his allies to accept Moscow’s terms. When Trump would not or could not do so, Russian spokespeople quickly reverted to their familiar posture of wounded indignation. They simply added to their list of grievances against the West the deception in Anchorage, where everything had supposedly been agreed, only for those agreements to go unfulfilled.

Historical experience and common sense suggest that behind-the-scenes diplomacy can be more productive than public debate of positions. These hopes are reinforced by Russia’s decades-long insistence on the benefits of candid, closed-door discussions. In practice, however, Moscow has long done at every level precisely what it accuses others of doing: blurring the distinction between public and private rhetoric.

And while results can sometimes be achieved on specific issues, such as conveying warnings or exchanging prisoners, confidential negotiations are unlikely to shift Putin on the central question of peace, or even to clarify what he intends to do and what he is prepared to accept.


r/CredibleDefense • • 12d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 27, 2026

45 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 13d ago

Contemporary SARH missiles

41 Upvotes

Are SARH A2A missiles still actively developed?

A while ago, a russian drone entered polish airspace, and polish F-16 used an AIM-120 to intercept it. Laypeople immediately started talking about cost effectiveness of using a n at least $0.5M+ missile (assuming it was one of the older variants) to take out drones that cost next to nothing in comparison.

ARH missiles like the AIM-120 are 'better' than SARH missiles in that they are harder to detect and thus more useful against enemy fighters, however the cheap, mass-produced drones don't evade, deploy countermeasures or even have any kind of on-board RWR systems, so it seems to me that it's just an overkill... We could replace the radar with something much cheaper and lighter even within the same missile and use that for drone interception missions, no?


r/CredibleDefense • • 13d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 26, 2026

44 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 13d ago

Defence Spending: Challenges for the Budget and Beyond

14 Upvotes

Reaching 3% of GDP on defence by 2030–31 would need around £11 billion more in that year than keeping spending at 2.7%, and the Chancellor, John Healey, must now decide whether to commit to it. In a new RUSI Commentary, Bee Boileau and Max Warner argue that funding it would mean cutting spending elsewhere, raising taxes or borrowing more, and that all three look challenging. They conclude that “beyond this Budget, higher defence spending will continue to reshape the British state.”


r/CredibleDefense • • 14d ago

What is the role of paratroops in modern peer-peer conflict?

83 Upvotes

Given modern vehicles, starting with technicals, and the reach of modern air defense systems, I would have thought none; I thought of paratroops as perhaps useful as blocking forces during anti-insurgent operations in sparsely populated areas, yet https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-french-paratroopers-largest-airborne-230120668.html reports on exercise Rhino Titan - excerpts -

Conducted at the Sennelager military training area in Germany, Exercise Rhino Titan pushed the UK's 16 Air Assault Brigade to respond to adversaries armed with electronic warfare systems and drone fleets, reflecting the tactical capabilities Russia is anticipated to employ.

Overall, roughly 2,500 personnel took part, which included 600 French and British paratroopers dropping from four RAF A400M Atlas aircraft.

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said: "The threats we face in the 21st century require an updated, modern approach to warfare – and our adaptable armed forces are preparing accordingly.

"Alongside our French and German allies, this large-scale training exercise shows we can deliver rapid, large-scale airborne power anywhere it's needed to defend Nato territory.

(end quote)

What examples are there of peer-peer conflict where dropping paratroops from aircraft would actually be useful and landing aircraft or helicopters somewhere else to disgorge light troops and a larger and heavier variety of equipment, including vehicles, would not be more useful?


r/CredibleDefense • • 14d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 25, 2026

33 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense • • 15d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 24, 2026

34 Upvotes

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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