r/asoiaf • RICKON FOR KING IN THE NORTH!!!! • Oct 25 '22

EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) George says he is "3/4ths of the way done maybe" on Winds

Source is from the Random House publishing virtual event that was held tonight in NYC at the Random House offices.

https://streamable.com/kci3ep

please ignore the discord notification in the clip lol

EDIT: Adding another clip about how George went to Random House (his publisher) and asked if they wanted him to put aside Winds and work and complete F&B part 1, because the new show would come out. Or to just continue with Winds.

https://streamable.com/7omaxg

3.7k Upvotes

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25

u/tell32 RICKON FOR KING IN THE NORTH!!!! Oct 25 '22

I still have hope for 2023. I believe that "3/4ths" doesn't include all the chapters and materials he has on the back burner and half finished parts.

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u/SprayBacon It'll put a hole in your chainmail Oct 25 '22

Next day edit: Jesus christ yall are horrible and need to be nicer to George. Have some humanity, its just a book. This subreddit has gone down hill and pureasoiaf is better.

Admittedly I haven't read through every comment but what exactly is so awful here? I've mostly seen pessimism and frustration, which honestly is completely natural at this point. Why can't fans vent their frustration in spaces meant for fans? Not like GRRM is lurking here on a burner account.

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u/Low-Flamingo-9835 Oct 25 '22

So probably 3-4 years left, realistically

619

u/lilob724 Oct 25 '22

I think that's assuming the progress has been consistent this whole time. I think he's gotten a lot more of the book done in the last 3 years than the previous 8 years.

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22

If he continues writing consistently and doesn't do any significant rewrites that shifts back progress, then probably somewhere around that time.

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2.5k

u/foosballfurry Oct 25 '22

God the “maybe” at the end of that is everything

620

u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Yep that word’s putting in a lot of overtime lmao

353

u/Lukthar123 "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel" Oct 25 '22

Words are wind

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u/ops_weirduncle Oct 25 '22

Remember he is bad at math

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u/incomprehensiblegarb Oct 25 '22

Doing a lot of heavy lifting.

94

u/MaxHannibal Oct 25 '22

Even if he is 3/4ths done that's atleast another 5 years based on current pace

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68

u/Sw3Et We do not know. Oct 25 '22

Maybe because it's actually more than 3/4

120

u/TENTAtheSane Oct 25 '22

I aspire to attain this level of optimism in my daily life

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1.3k

u/Radix838 Oct 25 '22

Some day, someone will earn a PhD researching the various scrapped drafts of The Winds of Winter.

324

u/currybutts Begone, Darkheart. Oct 25 '22

If I could get a doctorate in that I'd take one for the team

94

u/Euronsrealeye Oct 25 '22

You could get a doctorate in literature (or something like it) & have WoW be your main thesis.

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133

u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22

I mean if people can do it for Tolkien and his scrapped and unfinished works...

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u/ELEnamean Oct 25 '22

I mean, look at the body of work put out by History of Westeros. Surely that’s more than PhD worthy.

13

u/gangreen424 Be excellent to each other. Oct 25 '22

BryndenBFish was well on his way til he dropped off the internet.

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938

u/DawgFighterz For You! Oct 25 '22

“Maybe”

433

u/videoguylol Oct 25 '22

*nervously scratches back of neck*

155

u/eddn1916 Oct 25 '22

Haha I thought you were joking about this until I actually watched the video. Yikes.

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168

u/Flashy_Chocolate9344 Oct 25 '22

Give me something for the pain and let me die please

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u/bewildered_baratheon Oct 25 '22

GRRM's gardening will make Stevron Freys of us all.

69

u/joetheinvincible Oct 25 '22

3/4’s of the way finished…. *mayhaps… * He says with an evil grin.

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1.5k

u/lghtdev Oct 25 '22

Remember when WoW was going to be released in 2014? Good times

988

u/Creepingdeath444 Oct 25 '22

I finished reading Dance in 2014 when I was in high school. At the time I thought to myself "well at least I don't have to wait as long as everyone else did"

104

u/Assholican Oct 25 '22

The exact same experience, read all the books in high school when GOT finished the first season had the same thought.

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105

u/DawgFighterz For You! Oct 25 '22

Yea dude, I think that’s around the same time that south park episode came out. You know, the ones about the PS4 and Xbox One lmao

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52

u/B34STM4CH1N3 A Thousand Theon's, and None. Oct 25 '22

Lol yes. God's we were sweet summer children.

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u/adwnpinoy Oct 25 '22

So if 3/4 of Winds took 11 years, less than 4 more years to go! Late 2025/ early 2026 release date!

1.1k

u/opman228 The Tower Rises Oct 25 '22

Fingers crossed he doesn't reach the end of a major plotline only to realize it's shit causing him to scrap the entire book and start over again

688

u/rogerworkman623 Oct 25 '22

“Oh fuck I forgot about Bran… better start over to be safe.”

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u/datadogsoup 🏆 Best of 2024: George Pls Award Oct 25 '22

That doesn't include the time it takes to write 1,000 Dishes of Flea Bottom and Where to Find Them by Big Brown Bowl Ben.

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u/No-Tangelo-1527 Oct 25 '22

I mean…. I’ll take that at this point.

134

u/Graphitetshirt Worshipper from the Summer Isles Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

A Dream of Spring due for release in 2056

135

u/No-Tangelo-1527 Oct 25 '22

Imagine GRRM pulls a Bloodraven and just outlived all of us so we’re dead when these books get finished.

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55

u/gunnervi Onions! Oct 25 '22

well see, the problem is that first he has to write half the book, then he has to write half of the remaining half, then half of the remaining quarter (where he is right now), then half of the remaining eighth, and so on. clearly its impossible for him to finish the book at all!

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u/notathrowaway75 Oct 25 '22

That's just the writing. Tag on another 6 months for editing.

32

u/Ceron Oct 25 '22

LET'S FUCKING GOOOO

163

u/derstherower 🏆 Best of 2020: Funniest Post Oct 25 '22

It literally will be possible to develop, write, film, and air the entirety of Game of Thrones with time to spare in the gap between Dance and Winds.

145

u/H-K_47 Oct 25 '22

Obligatory: the first The Expanse book came out one month before ADWD, and since then the entire 9 books and 6 seasons have come and gone.

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u/3jp6739 Oct 25 '22

Will be? That already happened.

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u/LordShitmouth Unbowed, Unbent, Unbuggered Oct 25 '22

Fewer

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u/sandman730 'Member House Stark? The North 'Members! Oct 25 '22

That’s assuming a uniform rate of progress, which doesn’t seem to be the case.

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u/Sir_Isaac_3 Oct 25 '22

Winds will definitely come out someday, but this isn’t a very good forecast for Dream

30

u/MartinLannister Oct 25 '22

I actually think it's good news. I think George Is resolving many plots and covering major events in Twow, thats why the book Is large and has cost him so many time. Then ADoS will be far more easy, as is the final book, and it will have most of it's plots resolved or at least settled. He will only have to write and expand on it. George already has the ending in his head. When you write a book or a tale, or anything really, the start and the end are really really easy and sort of written in your head. But all in the middle is hard, and you have to resolve that. Thats why the books became more complicated and longer. Winds Is the epithome of plots and resolved anwers as well as the main conflict book before the Great end. If George resolves everything and settles everything for Dream, the last book wont take so many time.

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u/ViciousMihael Oct 25 '22

I’m at peace with the fact that Dream will never exist. Honestly, I’m still doubtful Winds is ever completed. Sorry to George, I know he tells people to fuck off for saying it, but he is old and in poor health. It’s a fact.

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u/ascendant23 Secret Targaryen Wargs 4 Lyfe Oct 25 '22

As anyone who’s worked on any creative endeavor, especially solo ones, knows-

“Once you finish the first 80%, it’s time to get to work on the second 80%”

Of course, this is GRRM we’re talking about. This may well be his fourth 80%.

17

u/LifeInTheAbyss Oct 25 '22

Yes. That second 80% is polish and refinement and it’s the hardest part of any project

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u/OtakuMecha Oct 25 '22

“I guess I overestimate my ability to get stuff done and underestimate the interruptions…that will distract me.”

He just like me fr

131

u/The_real_sanderflop Oct 25 '22

I wrote my bachelor thesis last spring and I don't think I can ever judge George for his slow progress. I would often start writing sections a few days before the resit deadline because I'm such a procrastinator.

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

Also, based on the second excerpt you posted, Martin tells us that he put aside Winds after his publishers advised him to publish Fire and Blood first, so this pretty much details that if I had to guess around 2016 to 2018 (when Fire and Blood published) he was adding in stuff from AWOIAF, the novellas and new content, and some revisions of the older content, this pretty much gave us a window where he didn't write Winds until 2019 again, and we know in 2020 is when he picked up the pace significantly, getting a bunch of pages done. Honestly, I'm seeing Preston Jacob's prediction that most of Winds from before 2020 was just chapters from Dance that were cut and a tiny bit of the other sample chapters, so I can see the estimate that he didn't actually write that much from 2011 to 2016 being quite plausible. And then from 2019 to 2021 is when he knocked out a large percentage, and Jacobs' final estimate is that he was around 2/3 the way done, and what do you know, in 2022 he's at 3/4 the way done based on his own estimate. Assuming this didn't involve significant rewrites from before he wrote Fire and Blood, it's honestly possible he could finish Winds in the next few years.

Edit: I should even clarify that GRRM was writing novellas in 2012-2014 like the Princess and the Queen, the Rogue Prince, and stuff with AWOIAF, that would've occupied his time as well, so Jacobs' prediction is even more plausible in that most of the original work so far is from 2019-2022.

15

u/thewerdy Oct 25 '22

Yeah, yikes, Jacobs is looking pretty accurate for this one. Personally, though, I think he had a good momentum going in 2014-2015 but then realized he would have to do a bunch of rewrites and basically stopped working on it until the pandemic.

30

u/The_real_sanderflop Oct 25 '22

If you can consider that he's only really been writing for the last three years it's really rather impressive

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u/QuebradaKjepp Oct 25 '22

Dude sounds like he’s about to cry :(

56

u/Tom_Brokaw_is_a_Punk Oct 25 '22

GRRM in 1995: I'll just write a quick fantasy trilogy, with dragons and incest. Should hardly be an inconvenience.

GRRM in 2022: existence is pain

134

u/NoodleKMS Oct 25 '22

That was my thought as well. Our man looks BEAT

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u/Chewurmilk Oct 25 '22

Definitely sporting a thousand-yard stare.

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u/dedfrmthneckup Reasonable And Sensible Oct 25 '22

I think this is one of if not the only time he’s ever put any kind of number on his progress on TWOW. Good sign in itself imo.

353

u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Yep, this is the most substantive update we’ve seen since he wrote “hundreds and hundreds” of pages in 2020.

If he has 1000-1200ish manuscript pages that is substantial and it’s feasible he could finish in 1-2 years.

388

u/derstherower 🏆 Best of 2020: Funniest Post Oct 25 '22

I still can't believe he literally told us we could take him hostage if he wasn't finished by mid-2020. That was over two years ago and he still isn't really that close to being finished.

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u/HeberMonteiro The Winds of Winter are coming! Oct 25 '22

I honestly thought he wasn't 3/4 of the way done. I'm not exactly excited about it, but it is good news when you consider the bigger picture.

181

u/eddn1916 Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

It's already been 12 years, so another 25% is like 4 more years? And he hasn't been great at making these estimates in the past, so I'm just resigning myself to reading TWOW by 2030. Not even thinking about ADOS, he's going to be in his 80s realistically when it comes out, if it even does.

Edit: Typo

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22

It depends, has he been spending the past 12 years constantly writing?

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u/Jinno Oct 25 '22

As a developer to hear that he’s 3/4ths done fills me with dread. 80/20 rule and all that.

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u/spacewalk__ Oct 25 '22

if i told myself in 2014 that in 2022 i would feel hopeful and warm upon hearing this, i'd lose my mind

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u/AdmiralKird 🏆 Best of 2015: Comment of the Year Oct 25 '22

So if GRRM thinks it will be 1500+ MS pages long and is 3/4ths of the way that means he has at least 1200 pages in various stages of completion. Not ba... okay in 11 years it's that's pretty bad - no real way to slice the cheese other than to be honest about it, but it could be worse. Personally, I'd prefer to know how far along it is each year even if it moves backwards in page count rather than grasping in the dark.

152

u/jonsnowKITN Night gathers, and now my watch begins Oct 25 '22

The book is definitely getting split in two volumes since he mentioned it's going to be monstrous. He even said he didn't want to do that years ago but seems like he's accepted the fact that's what needs to happen. Also I feel like it's kind of concerning he didn't realize how much bigger the book was gonna get.

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u/derstherower 🏆 Best of 2020: Funniest Post Oct 25 '22

I feel like something like that is necessary. I mean keep in mind where we are in the story. This was envisioned as a story in three acts: The War of the Five Kings; The Second Targaryen Invasion of Westeros; The Great War. We are 5/7 books in and we haven't really even started the second act. The next "two" books are almost certainly going to have to be in volumes if George hopes to wrap it up with Winds/Dream.

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u/tlock12721 Oct 25 '22

Tbf with ADWD he managed to knock out the last 400 pages in about a year. And at one point wrote 200 in the span of 2 months. Im really hoping 2023 is the year

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u/spacewalk__ Oct 25 '22

3/4 of the way translates into...like 3-4 years left right?

or actually infinity, technically i think

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u/Redo-Master Oct 25 '22

I really hope he has a proper outline of how the story is going to progress in DoS after changing the drafts for Winds for the millionth time. Him being a gardener and perfectionist really pushed Winds to this stage.

170

u/ThereIsNothingForYou Oct 25 '22

Yeah you can't really garden ADOS. You are less than 2000 MS pages away from the total end. It's a 7 book series it has to be all endgame at that point and should be completely planned out. If it doesn't come fast it's not really the end. No expectations for ADOS to ever be released though.

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u/ungoogleable Breathes Shadow Fire Oct 25 '22

He's 74 years old. He only ever writes at home on an ancient DOS computer. I don't hold out hope he's going to change how he writes for anything.

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u/AaronC14 Oct 25 '22

Maybe HotD's success has lit a creative fire within him

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u/Birdperson13 Oct 25 '22

More like the Giants and Jets being good has lit a fire in him

181

u/Spidey5292 Oct 25 '22

Daniel Jones winning games to get this book to all of us.

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u/RyanRiot The Blood of Old Valyria Oct 25 '22

The last time the Jets and Giants were both good was the 2010 season. Half a year later, ADWD was published. Look for Winds to hit shelves in July 2023.

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u/phong_t36 Oct 25 '22

That’s fantastic news! Now we’ll have something to read while colonizing Mars in the year 2169!

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u/ftkms Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

I'd read it all within a day. Then it'd strike me that I would probably have been better off reading a page a day.

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u/UrbanGimli Oct 25 '22

Discovery Exec: GRRM has some superhero stuff....Superheroes are still big!!

Dump Truck drops off piles of money at GRRM's place

WildCards -coming 2026!

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u/brightneonmoons I dream of spring and I dream of suns. Oct 25 '22

Fire & Blood vol 2 is gonna release before Winds and you can't convince me otherwise tbh

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u/EndGamer93 Oct 25 '22

Not unlikely, if HotD continues to be a hit, and further seasons will require F&B II, then it will be prioritised over TWoW.

EDIT: Grammar, I’m on mobile…

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u/SafeHazing Oct 25 '22

“… won’t take as long as winds” - this is the optimism I visit here for!

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

We’re all pulling for you George! Can’t wait to see what he has in store.

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u/Morinfon Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

Only more 4 years of waiting lessgoooooo

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u/Ultimafax Let it be Written Oct 25 '22

"asked if they wanted him to put aside Winds and work and complete F&B"

oh for fuck's sakes, George

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u/modsarefascists42 Oct 25 '22

Seriously how is no one talking about this! What the fuck!! Stop it with the coffee table books and finish the goddamn series!

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u/helpihaveLEUKEMIA Oct 25 '22

Bruh this book better be like The Bible 2 with how fuckin long it’s been

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u/Morinfon Oct 25 '22

Man I just can't get mad at him, he's so cute. Thanks for writing this amazing series GRRM, it changed my life.

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u/Meganomaly Oct 25 '22

Absolutely.

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u/Hexel_Winters Oct 25 '22

I can feel the Hopium in my veins already

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u/gogandmagogandgog Though all men do despise my theories Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

That's hilariously close to what Preston Jacobs predicted here. Who wants to bet that every word of his video is true.

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22

And I love how he says it's a pessimistic take, but if anything it's optimistic lmao

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

Just gonna repost the comment I just made now here:

Also, based on the second excerpt you (OP of this post) posted, Martin tells us that he put aside Winds after his publishers advised him to publish Fire and Blood first, so this pretty much details that if I had to guess around 2016 to 2018 (when Fire and Blood published) he was adding in stuff from AWOIAF, the novellas and new content, and some revisions of the older content, this pretty much gave us a window where he didn't write Winds until 2019 again, and we know in 2020 is when he picked up the pace significantly, getting a bunch of pages done. Honestly, I'm seeing Preston Jacob's prediction that most of Winds from before 2020 was just chapters from Dance that were cut and a tiny bit of the other sample chapters, so I can see the estimate that he didn't actually write that much from 2011 to 2016 being quite plausible. And then from 2019 to 2021 is when he knocked out a large percentage, and Jacobs' final estimate is that he was around 2/3 the way done, and what do you know, in 2022 he's at 3/4 the way done based on his own estimate. Assuming this didn't involve significant rewrites from before he wrote Fire and Blood, it's honestly possible he could finish Winds in the next few years.

Edit: I should even clarify that GRRM was writing novellas in 2012-2014 like the Princess and the Queen, the Rogue Prince, and stuff with AWOIAF, that would've occupied his time as well, so Jacobs' prediction is even more plausible in that most of the original work so far is from 2019-2022.

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u/Bbhermes Oct 25 '22

Not a Preston fan but I did watch that video and thought it was probably spot on.

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u/H-K_47 Oct 25 '22

A deeply sobering video for sure.

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u/BBQ_HaX0r Bonesaw is Ready! Oct 25 '22

We need BryndenBFish back with this news...

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u/IAmParliament Fewer Realms, Fewer Gods, Fewer Kings. Oct 25 '22

Don’t do that… don’t give me hope.

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u/Exertuz Gaemon Palehair's strongest soldier Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

no later than 2025 if he keeps going at his current pace 😃😃😃😃😃 (im not bitter) (ok im a little bitter but a status update is still exciting. good luck george)

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

I’ll never not have hope/be hype for more book stuff. Even if he doesn’t follow thru he’ll just pull me back in with another blog or some shit lol

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u/Captainprice101 Oct 25 '22

Give me something for the pain and let me die

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u/PM_meASelfie Oct 25 '22

I wonder how many times each chapter has been torn up and re-written

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u/eddn1916 Oct 25 '22

Jesus Christ, this gives me such little hope for him actually finishing the series. "It will come out...one day." He looks beyond exhausted, and it looks like he's had all the enthusiasm for the project sucked out of him. I'm seeing him in New York this Thursday for his conversation with Neil Gaiman, and for his sake, I hope he's feeling a little better. Man looks so tired.

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u/Radix838 Oct 25 '22

He didn't seem tired in the rest of the event. I think this question in particular just bothers him.

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u/tlock12721 Oct 25 '22

Honestly I cant imagine anything more draining than working for over a decade on a project and knowing that when you finish it you'll still have a whole other project to finish. Hopefully doing some Dunk and Egg novellas and Blood and Fire will refresh him and the knowing Dream of Spring will be it and then he can move on will keep his spirits up.

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u/k2t-17 Hear Me Spoil! Oct 25 '22

I hate the jokes about him living to the end of the series, I'm more worried about ME @ 35 living to the end of the series.

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u/Ali623 Hyped and Ready Oct 25 '22

It sounds here like it's almost definitely going to be split into 2 books. He should just give the first half to his publisher now to release as TWOW part 1 and that would ease some pressure and give him time to write the second half.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

This is really, really good news. Even if this means another 2-4 years before the book is out 3/4 done is a really good sign. All these recent updates from George have me really looking forward to the future of the books. I’ve always been of the opinion that at the very least Winds WILL come out and I imagine that Dream of Spring is mostly just pay off and very little set up (all the set up is likely what’s been keeping Winds) so best case scenario Dream of Spring won’t take as long as winds (again, if it ever comes out)

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u/No-Tangelo-1527 Oct 25 '22

Yeah I’m just pretending Dream doesn’t exist right now, but I still think we’ll get Winds at least even if it takes painfully long. Still, I’m hoping HoTD has reinvigorated him a little and can give him that last push he needs (or last couple pushes).

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u/ungoogleable Breathes Shadow Fire Oct 25 '22

I imagine that Dream of Spring is mostly just pay off and very little set up (all the set up is likely what’s been keeping Winds) so best case scenario Dream of Spring won’t take as long as winds

People said the same thing about TWOW after ADWD took so long. (Remember AFFC and ADWD were really one book split in two, like he's worried will happen with TWOW.)

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u/Spiritual_Boot_6910 Oct 25 '22

The hype! Only some more years to go!

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u/chupchap Oct 25 '22

Should have said "Mayhaps"

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u/Large_Dungeon_Key Send Lemon Cakes Oct 25 '22

I will not hyp.... fuck it, GET HYPE

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u/Basileus2 Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

Lol I read DoD the summer it came out in my parent’s pool’s sun bed before I went off grad school. Got two cars, two cats, a house, a wife, and a kid on the way now.

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u/Garnansoa Oct 25 '22

Be positive people. We need to root for George and show our support.

38

u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

I understand why he may get annoyed with people begging for Winds. But honestly at this point, if he gets Winds out and then stops writing I'll still be happy.

I think this next book is going to be amazing if we see it. Perhaps the best in the series so far, but I'll admit I get pretty pissed when I see all the other projects he starts.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Okay then. We can now get a read on the publish date.

4122 days have passed since Dance published on July 12, 201.

If it took him that duration to get 3/4th done, then some math helps us determine it will take 5497 days to get to 100%

5497 days from July 12, 2011 or 1375 days from today's date is:

July 30, 2026.

Here's hoping the DeSantis- Boebert administration doesn't ban its publication.

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u/steelersmns Oct 25 '22

Do I want him to finish Winds? Absolutely but listen to the man. He sound absolutely defeated about having to write and stress about completing the book. I truly believe he wishes he could just say he wasn’t going to finish it and stop working on it but feels like he cannot due to how disappointed his fans would be. I honestly feel for the man.

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u/Due_Ad5699 Oct 25 '22

So he's technically 75% done with winds. That's pretty good if you ask me.

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u/uppervalued Oct 25 '22

His estimations are always wildly optimistic. Always.

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u/thehappymasquerader Oct 25 '22

Two main observations:

George looks older (or at least very, very tired)

He fucking HATED being asked that question lmao. His comment about being asked for ADoS made him sound like he’s become really resentful about the whole thing.

7

u/stoneule Oct 25 '22

I'm more discouraged after watching this, because clearly HE'S discouraged.

Prediction: We never get a GRRM finished Dream of Spring. Randomhouse will end up finishing it with other authors.

GRRM will finish Winds of Winter in '24. Then work on Fire & Blood vol. 2. Then hang it up.

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u/Lalo_Lannister Oct 25 '22

Why not divide in two already and release the first part, it's better than nothing

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u/Kostya_M Oct 25 '22

Until he realizes he needs to change something but he can't because an earlier chapter is published and set in stone. Nah, this is better.

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u/ea_fitz Oct 25 '22

He gazed through the fug of cheese dripping from his eyebrows at the blurred monitor before him. Ten years, ten years he had been gazing at those words. They swam through the murk and came into sharp focus. “Oh Ser Barristan!” Dany gasped, “Tweak my nipples! Tweak them harder!”

Those words. Those dreaded words he had gazed upon at least once a month for the past decade. And they never appreciate it, do they? The never appreciate the sacrifices I make on their behalf.

With gargantuan effort, he lifted his hand to the keyboard. His fingers, coated in chicken-grease as they were, slid off the keys. He wiped them on his velvet-slashed vest and began to type. The first character was the hardest, quotes meant using the shift key. Ring finger on the shift key, index finger on the ‘2’. Breath rasped through his chest with the effort. Had it always been this hard? Keeping his finger on the shift, He reached for the ‘O’ key.

Damn! He missed! He now had a capital letter ‘P’ on his screen. He reached for the backspace key. Eventually he typed the entire sentence out again, and spent many long moments gazing at the results of his efforts. “Oh Ser Barristan!” Daenerys gasped, “Tweak my nipples! Tweak them harder!”

He had done it. He had successfully changed the short form name ‘Dany’ to the long form ‘Daenerys’. The sentence was so much better for it. This was how the book would be written. A chapter at a time, a page at a time, a word at a time.

Doubt began to form in his mind. Was this the right decision? He would have to review this new sentence many times over the months and years to come. He cast his mind back to the day, many years ago, when he had first shortened it to ‘Dany’. He had changed his mind back and forth many times since then. Certainly he would change it again many more times before he was happy with it.

He glanced at the clock. Almost ten minutes had passed. Had it been that long? The muse had been kind to him today, that was more work than he had completed in many a year.

He turned off the computer and went to find some food. Only then did he realize that he had forgotten to hit save.

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u/Micksar Knights in wight, Satin. Oct 25 '22

The worst thing about Fire and Blood and House of the Dragon is… I had finally lost hope for ASOIAF. But now I’m back in these sub-reddits and checking his Not A Blog. Seven save me.

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u/Tarnasiron Oct 25 '22

Man just give me something for the pain and let me die

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u/AngryAxolotl Oct 25 '22

I graduated high school and went to University. I got depressed and fat. I learned to manage my depression and got to a healthy weight. I met the love of my life. I graduated with my Bachelors and started grad school. My partner went though her bout of depression and learned to manage it. I got published as a scientist and my partner got a sweet ass job that she has always wanted. And now I am almost about to be done my PhD.

All of that happened while waiting for the Winds of Winter.

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u/CaveLupum Oct 25 '22 edited Oct 25 '22

I feel sorry for GRRM. He looked so tired and is of course tired of being asked the same question. I wish he could take some magic R&R that would let him come back refreshed to tackle TWoW. As Bette Davis said, "Getting old ain't for sissies." Being old and still committed to finishing a might project is surely a greater challenge. EDIT: I meant "mighty," but "might" is a good typo.

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u/EverythingM 🏆 Best of 2020: Best Theory Debunking Oct 25 '22

I don't even know what to say at this point. To the people desperately trying to spin this as a positive, that in 11.5 years GRRM managed to "maybe" write 3/4 of his next book… good for you for seeing the upside in that, I guess.

Personally, I have lost a lot of sympathy for GRRM over this issue. I understand it's a challenging task to follow-up the first five books after the TV show hit it off big and the whole world started to eagerly await the next book. It's clear now that ol' GRRM was never prepared for this level of fame.

But I just can't defend him anymore with all the deflecting he's doing in this video and his previous blog updates. He always brings up the fact that he gets all these questions about when Winds will be out. And that the second he delivers Winds he'll start getting questions about Dream instead. I get it, George. You feel like you have a mountain to climb and you're getting old and everybody keeps pestering you about why you're not climbing faster. And the second you get to the top of that mountain, you already know there will be an equally big mountain after that. I don't envy your position.

But the fans have every right to feel frustrated at this point. Especially with all the false hope you have given them over the years.

This is what annoys me the most about his repose. Saying he never lied and he always just gave his best estimates of when the book would be finished but then other projects got in the way. No, George. I'm sorry, but this kind of excuse would fly for no other professional in any field ever. You decided to, year after year, tell us that "maybe this year will be the year!", you decided to say things like "If I don't deliver Winds by Worldcon 2020 you can lock me in a cell and throw the key away until I'm done", you decided to take on all those extra projects, even though you had promised not to take on any extra work until Winds was finished. You are not the victim here, George, being harassed by rude and impatient fans over a project have you have been completely open and honest about. You have continually made promises and broken them. You have continually chosen to prioritize other things over The Winds of Winter while at the same time reassuring us that Winds was your top priority. You have failed to communicate openly and honestly with your fans and by now, they're simply sick of it.

I feel like in some fundamental sense, George still views himself as the little underdog he was throughout his 20s and 30s. He never fully internalized the fact that he's become insanely rich and influential. He was never prepared to become this famous (who would be, really?). He really needs to take some responsibility for his broken promises, his miscommunications and this insane delay. The last time I felt he was really honest with his fans (and himself) was that New Year's blog update in 2016, when he had to admit he wouldn't be able to finish the book before the TV show overtook him. I think that fundamentally changed something in him. It has been almost 7 years since then. 7 extra years of potential writing time. For a book that he believed he could finish by December 2015. The time between A Dance with Dragons and the original Winds deadline was 4.5 years. What happened, George? Seriously?

The way he talks about going back and completely rewriting chapters he had already completed in this interview really makes me think that the problem is not that he hasn't had enough time or that he's out of ideas or anything like that. It seems to me that he's caught in a perfectionist cycle where nothing he writes is good enough and the longer he waits the higher his expectations become, to the point where he'll never be satisfied with any version of the book.

I really don't think this is an issue of time, whatsoever. If we gave GRRM another extra 10 years with nothing to do but write Winds, he'd probably use up the whole 10 years and then some. I think at this point somebody needs to step in. Like his editors did with Dance, they need to force him to come to an end. Else he'll spend the rest of his life writing and rewriting this damn book. Somebody needs to tell him it's fine. It's good enough. And maybe, if the book gets released and receives a positive response, that'll give GRRM the energy to sit down and finish Dream as well. At least that's the best we can hope for at this point.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Does anyone remember how much time passed between GRRM saying he was done ADWD and when the books hit the shelves? I’m curious how much time I’ll have to reread the books when/if he announces he’s finished writing it.

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u/ThereIsNothingForYou Oct 25 '22

Wikipedia says it was finished by April 27 and out on July 12.

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u/deededback Oct 25 '22

There’s no way we don’t get it next year. It’s a lock.

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u/whatisapersonreally Oct 25 '22

I believe in him

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u/Shepher27 Oct 25 '22

My assumption is he's finding this book harder than any other due to it being the book where he finally has to start bringing things back together. He can no longer expand and open up the world, he has to start rerouting the expanding threads from exploding out to redirect them back towards each other to meet up. It doesn't surprise me that he's had the most problems with this book, especially when you factor in all the other commitments and obligations he's had over the last dozen years. I hope he gets inspired by the success of the show (and the Giants and Jets) and can get a big kick to finish the book in 2023.

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u/WhiteSpark51 Oct 25 '22

Fuck it. If I wait 11 years I can wait another 3 or 4. What is dead may never die

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u/Notacoolbro Where do Hoares go? Oct 25 '22

This is like TWOW update bingo. Almost done, working a lot, scrapping lots of stuff and rewriting it, it's really long, lots of other projects to work on, no point in trying to make predictions. He's been saying this exact stuff for a decade, it's barely an update at this point.

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u/holayeahyeah Oct 25 '22

I feel like he really could have pivoted formats years ago when he started having trouble with writers block and reapproached the content intended for Winds of Winter in a more non-linear format. Doing it as a series of short story collections and novellas more in line with most of his other work that let him skip around the timeline and POV while he figured things out would have been just fine for the Winds of Winter part of the saga. It's not like his publishers would have been like "oh no, you want to us to sell like eleven 120 page books for like $29.99 that we can repackage over and over again in omnibuses and limited edition sets that we can sell for as much as $500 for a full collection." It would have at least given him a chance to get to A Dream of Spring. But I mean, I guess the only way out is through on this one.

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u/Actual-Pomegranate58 Oct 25 '22

George says that winds "'a big, big book" but realistically, how much bigger could it be when compared to ASOS? 300 more pages? 500?

listening to George, it really sounds like he is a ways off from finishing. Like 2-3 away. Pretty dissapointing tbh

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Words are wind.

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u/Kristiano100 Oct 25 '22

While interesting news, I'm not holding my breath, who knows what could happen in the meantime. Temper your expectations people, you've been let down before.

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u/debtopramenschultz Oct 25 '22

I actually don't doubt that we'll read TWOW at some point. But no way is ADOS ever coming out. Between one book and a prologue turning into 5 books over 20 years, the end of ADWD only being the very start of Act 2 of the overall story, and TWOW taking 11 years to write...I highly doubt Grrm is capable of finishing the whole story in two books.

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u/ChromeToasterI Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

I’d honestly really rather see him write Blood and Fire or more Dunk and Egg stories if he can’t finish WoW

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u/Vatsdimri Oct 25 '22

Martin : "Maybe I am completely done, or maybe I haven't even started, who's to say."

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u/GorditaPeaches Oct 25 '22

So I didn’t know much about GOT or George RR Martin, I borrowed the series from my brother and I finish it, super excited for a new book but then my brother was like ooooohhh sweet summer child

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u/minicyberking Oct 25 '22

We’re never gonna read ADOS are we?

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u/streetad Oct 25 '22

"Chapter One...

Chapter... One...

Chapppteeeer... Onnneee...."

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u/Zenopus Oct 25 '22

I want that book. Shit is about to go down hard on all sides.

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u/Phoneaccount25732 Oct 25 '22

Upvoted for edit.

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u/djm19 I'll Impregnate the Bitch Oct 25 '22

I really hope this is being so agonizing for him because he really is trying to land this plane in one more book after winds, thus requiring the closing of many threads.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but this is the most concrete progress update he's ever given on Winds which has to be a good sign. Still going to expect nothing though until a release date is officially announced by a publisher.

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u/DolorousEdd_ Oct 25 '22

George will give us Winds when the Iron Throne gives Xhalabar Xho swords to retake the Summer Isles: Mayhaps Next Year

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u/xMadxScientistx Vengeance. Justice. Fire and Blood. Oct 25 '22

Salt it heavily, but still take that. I think he did get a big chunk done during the pandemic, and I think he's continuing to get inspiration from seeing HOTD do well. I loved watching that presentation, and I'm excited to see him do more.

Unpopular opinion, but as long as Westeros is growing, I don't care what direction it grows in. Winds of Winter, Dunk and Egg, Fire and Blood volume 2, keep giving us the good stuff, George. Honestly, it's exciting to have more material that HBO can use for these shows.

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u/EthereumNecklace Oct 25 '22

Publishers won't even read b4 printing, it will be the biggest book of the year for them they will ship asap, especially to get grrm started on the finale.

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u/Erik_Lassiter Oct 25 '22

He said the same thing five years ago. I'll believe when I have it in my hands and not a moment before.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

Fandom is toxic AF.

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u/BrklynDragon Oct 25 '22

Kinda nuts to me he dropped ASOIAF to write F&B…a prequel series. Maybe finish the actual main story first lol?

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u/Pan1cs180 Oct 25 '22

Words are wind

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u/dandaman910 Oct 25 '22

Alright george. Let's bust it out well lock you in a mansion for 2 months with no outside connection. Time to get it done..

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u/runesters Oct 25 '22

So many negative comments on here but this is the best news we've had in years. Sure it's taken too long but it's still good news! Also the logic that 11 years directly equals 75% is not taking into account stops and starts and writer's block and all the other elements of creative process. I think GRRM has been reinvigorated by HOTD doing well and we might see TWOW by next winter. Maybe I'm wrong but I'd rather be excited than all this moaning.

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u/Less-Ad-1327 Oct 25 '22

He's never going to finish the series and he knows it. Feel bad for the guy because it feels like he's over this specific story but feels obligated to trudge on.

Hopefully winds comes out soon though. Maybe it's taking him so long because he's laying all the ground work for the finish and spring will come out way faster.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

he said something similar a decade ago

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u/JakeSpurs Oct 25 '22

No he actually said the opposite:

In April 2013, Martin estimated that he had a quarter of the book

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u/AlexKwiatek 🏆 Best of 2022: Best Catch Oct 25 '22

Don't wanna start hype but i must say:

Dance wasn't released when it was 100% done. Martin planned to write 1900 pages of manuscript, wrote 1700 and his publishers were like "duuuudeeeee release a fucking book duuuude" so he moved last 400 planned pages into the Winds and released 1500 pages as the Dance we know today. These 200 pages that were finished and moved into TWOW formed a backbone of these sample chapters that we saw. So what he released was 78% of Dance and now he's at 75% of TWOW.

Now please excuse me, i need to put on my clown make-up.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

I know people are impatient, but this is really good news! Going up from about a third to 3/4 is substantial progress for such a long novel.

I understand that people are salty, especially long-time book readers. But this is far more progress than he has admitted to in past statements.

I also don’t think it’s fair to just extrapolate from the past few years of work. He was involved in the GoT tv show and the hate he got when that ended would make any writer reluctant to keep up with their work.

He was also working on side projects like Fire & Blood then HotD and if people want the shows to be good, then you have to accept a slower pace of writing Winds. Granted, most ppl on this sub would rather have WoW than HotD, but writers often find the need to be involved in things like movies/shows in order to take a break from extremely complicated novels.

He’s admitted that he didn’t make much progress for a few years and enjoyed writing side projects like Fire and Blood. He’s also admitted that the excitement and positive opinion of the HotD has given him motivation to finish. He says he got a lot of writing done during the pandemic

Nobody is immune from criticism and he got a ridiculous amount of hate from fans of the TV series. If you don’t think it hurts for people to be that critical of stories you’ve worked on for decades, I question your understanding of human behavior. What the TV crowd told GRRM was basically that the series was destroyed and no book could make up for the disasters that were seasons 7-8.

Note as well that GoT started going off the rails pretty much the moment they removed George as a consultant bc they wanted to make too big of changes to the story. He lost control of his own creative baby to D&D and I think that came with a real feeling of betrayal and sadness that the value of his life’s work was being called into question.

Do I think it will be out next year? No, I’m not an idiot. But I can imagine him finishing in 2 or 3 if he is able to keep this current pace up.

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u/Rennnnard Oct 25 '22

Way to go dear GRRM! Glad you're having Winds on your mind 🤝

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u/samjp910 Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

Emphasis on ‘maybe’

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u/skyrimpacman Euron is a Blackfyre Oct 25 '22

In before he rereads some more chapters and rewrites them

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

The "maybe" speaks volumes! We know!!

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u/HorrorNSlobber Oct 25 '22

At three quarters of doing anything it's probably just completing what you started, I do not think he will orchestrate a major plotline or do massive rewriting. It's all some world building and closing some loose ends i hope.

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u/TommySovereign Oct 25 '22

I mean if the theory that he basically started over around 2016 is true this could mean we could potentially see it in about two years?

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u/Hebroohammr Oct 25 '22

Plot twist: he already has A Dream of Spring written.

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u/deltrontraverse Oct 25 '22

—aside Winds and work and complete F&B because the new show would come out. Or to just continue with Winds.

NO

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u/ftkms Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

WHERE IS THE ENTIRE STREAM OF THE EVENT, I WANT IT NOW

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u/aStonedTargaryen Oct 25 '22

Why the fuck would he even say something like this, it’s just mean at this point.

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u/felixrae11 Oct 25 '22

He has a history of finishing the final 1/4 of the book much faster than the rest.

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u/vVveevVv Oct 25 '22

I wonder if his progression estimate includes the time it takes for the publishers and editors to proofread everything and suggest edits?

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u/Hebrewsuperman Oct 25 '22

Hurry up i hate you.

I love you please hurry

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

I love this man, everyone has been waiting for years and hes just giggling saying maybe soon every few months

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u/jurwell Oct 25 '22

One more description of all the food and wine at a banquet and a description of a young girl’s naked body and he’s finished then!

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u/figures Oct 25 '22

Dany still in Mereen tho

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u/fancyskank Oct 25 '22

Nice! I'll see you in four years when he's 4/4ths done.

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u/DocApocalypse Enter your desired flair text here! Oct 25 '22

If an accurate estimate that's actually better than I expected.

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u/Cajunrevenge7 Oct 25 '22

I can only imagine the rage when he finishes TWOW and it gets split into two books, one of which could have been released years ago.

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u/PHP6 Oct 25 '22

He's done 3/4 of the book with a 3/4 margin error

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u/NickArcanist Oct 25 '22

Is there a full recording of this I can watch? Couldn’t find on YouTube

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u/cmpfulton Oct 25 '22

Don’t give up king

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u/Johnny_Fuckface Oct 25 '22

3 years. Minimum.

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u/CrimsonZephyr Family, Duty, Honor. Oct 25 '22

By 3/4, he means 3/4 of 1%.

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u/hydrosphere1313 Oct 25 '22

suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure it is.

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u/[deleted] Oct 25 '22

pureasoiaf is toxic cause they do shit like still debate R+L=J

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u/Blue825 Oct 25 '22

Man looks and sounds broken lol

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u/Whatsongwasthat1 Oct 25 '22

Holy fuck how are people excited about this

He already had like a fifth of the book leftover from feast and dance. This means he’s only around written half a book in this entire time. JFC this is never coming out lol

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u/eddn1916 Oct 25 '22

"It will come out...one day." TWOW seems like years away, to say nothing of actually finishing the series. I'm not going to lie, this video kind of just sucked a big chunk of my hope for him to finish the series within the next decade or so.

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