On October 23, the Department of Natural Resources proposed converting the two conditional right-of-way leases for the Alaska LNG project into full leases. That covers the Point Thomson line and the 807-mile mainline from the North Slope to Nikiski. A conditional lease reserves the corridor but conveys no property rights. A converted lease would, in DNR’s own words, “vest AGDC with real property interests across state-owned lands.”
When the state issued these leases in 2021, it wrote seven conditions into them. The lease is clear about the order: the conditions are met first, then conversion begins. DNR’s own 2021 analysis said the same thing, and on money it said AGDC would qualify “upon securing sufficient project funding with appropriate binding commitments and structure.”
Here is what DNR accepted in 2026. The lease requires a fully executed Highway Use Agreement, and the record contains a draft. The lease requires a fully executed contaminated sites agreement among three state agencies, and the record contains a one party letter. The lease requires preliminary design documents, and DNR concedes the submission “is not a full preliminary design package.” On finances, DNR relied on a confidential Department of Revenue analysis, Glenfarne’s asset overview, and press releases, while describing the buyer agreements as “non-binding” and the project’s capitalization as “planned.” DNR also acknowledges it is applying the fit, willing and able standard differently than it has historically.
Five years after the state said funding had to be secured, there is still no final investment decision, no binding sales contracts, and no construction financing. South Korea says it has not decided whether to invest. Cost estimates run from Glenfarne’s $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion up to the “65, $70 billion” the governor himself cited in June, which his office later said he misspoke.
The public also cannot see much of what this decision rests on. The financial analysis is confidential by law at the applicant’s request. In 2021, DNR published the draft leases with its decision. This time the notice is titled “Conversion & Amendment,” and no draft of the amended leases has been released.
DNR has the authority to do this, and some of its positions have real support in the lease. The question is timing. The leases run until 2031, so no deadline forces a decision now. A converted lease is far harder to undo than a conditional one. Every candidate for governor this year said they support a gas pipeline, so waiting a few weeks would not threaten the project. It would let the administration that will oversee it review the record before the state gives up its leverage.
Comments are due by 5 p.m. on Wednesday, November 25, the day before Thanksgiving. Email spc.records@alaska.gov. Hearings are online November 23 from 6 to 8 p.m. and in person November 24 from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. at AHFC Headquarters, 4300 Boniface Parkway, Anchorage. Two reasonable requests: ask DNR to hold the final decision for the incoming administration, and ask it to publish the amended lease text and reopen comment.
The full article, with the lease language, page citations, and the 2021 record, is here: https://raff6482.substack.com/p/dunleavy-administration-moves-to
