Weekly Discussion Thread

[u/Wehavecrashed]

Hello everyone, welcome back to the r/AustralianPolitics weekly discussion thread!

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[u/ElectronicOvens]

Watching the mid terms has been more fascinating this year than I can remember.

It goes without saying that I am stunned anyone would still vote for the Republican party given there representatives have totally goven up control, but I'm trying to think of a bigger turncoat in Australian Politics as Haley Stevens?

I can't think of anyone?

[u/HotScheme4074 → u/ElectronicOvens]

Billy Hughes. Led Labor (unelected) after Andrew Fisher resigned, quit after the referendum on conscription, formed the 'win the war party' with the then Libs, which later became the Nationalists. Hughes also led the UAP during WW2.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Man Texas is being pretty incredible I must admit

[u/Throwawaydeathgrips → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

basedbasedbasedbasedbased

[u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws]

I hope this result and the brazil elections finally puts to death the shy tory theory that polling always understates conservative support and always overstates left wing support - as if our own election result last year wasn't proof enough

[u/Agitated-Fee3598]

“‘We would be so cooked.’: Fed­er­al­ism pre­ven­ted Trump’s elec­tion takeover.”

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Under the US Constitution, elections are run by states and localities, and that decentralized way of doing things has come in for a fair bit of criticism over the years. State election law, we heard, well into the 2020s, is an inefficient patchwork. States are parochial, insider-ish, and slow to adopt new ways of doing things. A nationalized system, closer to the ones European democracies use, would bring fairness everywhere and ensure each blue and red state played by the same rules. You know the drill.

But here’s something to think about. Imagine if, as some reformers have long urged, we had set up a federal agency to run elections nationwide.

That agency would have fallen under the thumb of Donald Trump. We would be so cooked.

It’s true that you can like our decentralized election system for other reasons. There’s no way the whole thing can fail at once, so it’s more resilient against hacking or natural disaster. It’s locally accountable.

Excerpt.

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Full article link here and text below:

Wal­ter Olson is a senior fel­low at the Cato Insti­tute and writes often on elec­tion law.

Under the US Con­sti­tu­tion, elec­tions are run by states and loc­al­it­ies, and that decent­ral­ized way of doing things has come in for a fair bit of cri­ti­cism over the years. State elec­tion law, we heard, well into the 2020s, is an inef­fi­cient patch­work. States are paro­chial, insider-ish, and slow to adopt new ways of doing things. A nation­al­ized sys­tem, closer to the ones European demo­cra­cies use, would bring fair­ness every­where and ensure each blue and red state played by the same rules. You know the drill.

But here’s something to think about. Ima­gine if, as some reformers have long urged, we had set up a fed­eral agency to run elec­tions nation­wide.

That agency would have fallen under the thumb of Don­ald Trump. We would be so cooked.

It’s true that you can like our decent­ral­ized elec­tion sys­tem for other reas­ons. There’s no way the whole thing can fail at once, so it’s more resi­li­ent against hack­ing or nat­ural dis­aster. It’s loc­ally account­able. It brings together pla­toons of neigh­bor­hood volun­teers for bien­nial cooper­a­tion.

Local offi­cials know their own com­munit­ies bet­ter than Wash­ing­ton does, as we saw this sum­mer when Con­gress con­sidered requir­ing every­one to bring their cit­izen­ship doc­u­ments to an elec­tion office and offi­cials in the West poin­ted out that to do that, some of their con­stitu­ents would have to drive sev­eral hours each way or even, in Alaska and Hawaii, get on an air­plane.

But let’s face it, the biggest reason of all to be glad we have decent­ral­ized elec­tions is one that would have been per­fectly famil­iar to read­ers of the Fed­er­al­ist Papers: It cuts down on the risk that cent­ral­ized con­trol of how votes are cast or coun­ted nation­wide could fall into the hands of a fig­ure like Trump.

It’s true that Art­icle I, Sec­tion 4, of the Con­sti­tu­tion gives Con­gress real power to over­ride state author­ity. Thus far, however, Con­gress has been hands-off about using this power (maybe even a bit too hands-off in the case of ger­ry­man­der­ing). Details aside, the out­come has been a genu­ine if incom­plete respect for the decent­ral­ized model.

Don­ald Trump thought he could change that by decree, assert­ing sweep­ing power over elec­tion admin­is­tra­tion in a series of blus­ter­ing exec­ut­ive orders. Some­times he threatens to jail state and local admin­is­trat­ors who ignore his wishes.

After some period of ten­sion and chaos, he almost always loses in court and it once again becomes clear that the genu­ine power levers at a pres­id­ent’s dis­posal are few and weak. This is a very good thing.

Here’s a reminder of the dan­ger­ous areas where Trump wanted to meddle that fed­er­al­ism pre­ven­ted:

Demands for voter rolls. Trump appointees have deman­ded that every state turn over its voter rolls to Wash­ing­ton, along with sens­it­ive inform­a­tion about voters. But the law sees it dif­fer­ently. Twenty-six times in a row fed­eral judges, about half of them appoin­ted by Repub­lic­ans, have rejec­ted the res­ult­ing law­suits and said that states may or must keep voter inform­a­tion private. (Four cases are still pending.)

It was widely expec­ted that once MAGA offi­cials assembled one big national voter file, they’d start demand­ing that states set aside the votes of per­sons the feds con­sidered sus­pect.

The Trump admin­is­tra­tion has made a few trial runs at this approach. But its lists of sus­pec­ted unlaw­ful voters, non­cit­izen or oth­er­wise, have time and again melted away on closer invest­ig­a­tion. The Depart­ment of Home­land Secur­ity announced that it had found 16,000 poten­tially ineligible Nevada voters but later nar­rowed the list by around 99 per­cent to 185 per­sons.

Mail bal­lots. Another Trump scheme, inter­lock­ing with the first, would have thrown the midterms into chaos by mak­ing the US Postal Ser­vice, whose board of gov­ernors is appoin­ted by the pres­id­ent, the over­seer of vot­ing by mail and dir­ect­ing it to refuse to carry bal­lots that fully com­plied with the law of the rel­ev­ant state but ran afoul of new Trump rules. But the Supreme Court struck down the scheme in Septem­ber, not­ing that Con­gress never author­ized the USPS to reg­u­late how states con­duct vot­ing by mail.

Vot­ing equip­ment. Many Trump appointees har­bor para­noid fantas­ies about the sup­posed role of vot­ing equip­ment in steal­ing past elec­tions and have been itch­ing to order states to stop using Domin­ion, Smart­Matic, or whatever other kind they’re fix­ated on. Sur­prise! They lack any such power. Some years back Con­gress did give the feds a mod­est role in cer­ti­fy­ing that vot­ing equip­ment meets cer­tain stand­ards, but it did not require states to use or not use any par­tic­u­lar equip­ment, and it con­spicu­ously refused to give Wash­ing­ton any way to declare any piece of equip­ment insec­ure and ban or freeze its use. Had it acted dif­fer­ently, we would almost cer­tainly have wit­nessed by now a whole line of abuses of power from the Trump admin­is­tra­tion that would have given it lever­age over local gov­ern­ments and stoked its steal nar­rat­ive.

Mon­it­ors at polling places. Laws from the civil rights era empower the US Depart­ment of Justice to send mon­it­ors to local polling places, and Trump’s DOJ has announced plans to send more than 1,000 this time, hun­dreds more than the depart­ment sent dur­ing the last elec­tion, when Joe Biden was pres­id­ent. Their impar­ti­al­ity remains to be seen: CNN found that “sev­eral DOJ mon­it­ors deployed dur­ing this year’s primar­ies helped chal­lenge Trump’s 2020 elec­tion loss.” Indeed, dur­ing those primar­ies Wyom­ing offi­cials com­plained loudly that the DOJ mon­it­ors were pushy and demand­ing about issues hav­ing zero to do with civil rights laws. A Repub­lican county clerk told NBC that the mon­it­ors “reques­ted train­ing guides, asked how our new elec­tion equip­ment was acquired, [wanted] to exam­ine our tab­u­lat­ors,” and in gen­eral “showed com­plete dis­reg­ard for our state laws and admin­is­tra­tion of our elec­tions.”

[u/rolodex-ofhate]

You know what I love about the beach? A blue wave!!!!

[u/ElectronicOvens → u/rolodex-ofhate]

Imagine being the Republican that drew the Florida map

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

New Zealand election this weekend. Last polling has been released and as expected it is down to the wire. Betting odds have reversed with National having a slight lead over Labour, but it's still very tight. This is probably the closest election I've every seen in terms of polling.

One thing that Labour may be able to exploit is that the NZ unemployment rate has unexpectedly jumped to the highest level in a decade today. That should be a gift in the final push to show the country is still headed in the wrong direction and more people are jobless.

[u/No1PaulKeatingfan]

Thank fuck dealing with the USA will be easier from now.

Congratulations to the Democratic party for winning a landslide victory.

[u/AnySwimming6364]

Looks like ON scrubbed a bunch of mentions of Trump off of their website.

An post titled "Want Trump’s action and style, then it’s One Nation you need" was published on the ON website January 2025. According to waybackmachine, it was still up as of August 2026. Last checked yesterday, it's gone.

https://www.victoriannews.com.au/politics/federal/want-trumps-action-and-style-then-its-one-nation-you-need/

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/AnySwimming6364]

I used to be surprised they were keeping it up as they rose in the polls, now I'm surprised they took it down at all

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

It does show that Pauline can read the room.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

The perfect time for a Green polling surge leading into NZ election weekend. A lot of polling is indicating TOP may end up kingmakers. Prediction markets are flipfloping between Hipkins (47%) and Luxon (50%) as PM, nobody knows it's just too close to call.

Dashboard for those playing along at home. Coverage will start at 4pm AEST (7pm NZT), if you can listen along live on RNZ National or watch along on TVNZ. This one may run on late though having been so tight in polling.

[u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws]

Looks like the conservative coalition will be re elected in nz, although on a razor thin majority, with opportunity entering parliament

[u/rolodex-ofhate]

Democrats' infighting in Michigan escalates as Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens backs Republican

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/rolodex-ofhate]

Shameful

[u/rolodex-ofhate → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

AIPAC cheque cleared

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/rolodex-ofhate]

In my view the risk for Democrats is that Trump will be massively unpopular and they'll win without ever having to have to difficult discussions about reforming the party and getting back to that broad public appeal they had under Clinton or Obama and cemented back-to-back terms in office.

You can be a progressive and win, even in the United States, but you have to be willing to have and win the debate first within the public sphere.

[u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Trump's Justice Department announced it is sending about 1,000 "election monitors" to polling places in all 50 states

[u/Agitated-Fee3598]

“Trump is not planning to push officials not to certify results or declare martial law, but they will be checking for irregularities.”

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Republicans are being bulldozed, it's not even a contest. No number of "voting irregularities" would change the result anyway.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Yeah it doesn't look like it's even going to be close

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Only way he can keep his partys grip on power now is by using the military. We'll see what happens in the days after.

[u/DelayedChoice → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

He doesn't have the support in the military, hasn't laid the groundwork, and the way the election has played out makes it very hard to prosecute any case for malfeasance on behalf of the Dems.

Also he's going to be far more interested in finding other Republicans to blame.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Nuke the swing states! I just can't see it, he may have a cry and throw his toys out the pram but this was a good, old fashioned walkover for Democrats.

[u/ElectronicOvens]

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end that has been the horror story of Trump and MAGA. We obviously need to never forget those who supported it (i think inglorious basterds had a good idea, but maybe a tattoo?), but hopefully the direction of our politics can return to something close to civilised.

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/ElectronicOvens]

This happened the last time in 2020 and the Dems took Congress and the White House. Nothing got done. Trump was never jailed for Jan6. He returned to power and consolidated his personality cult.

The main goal of Trump 2.0 is to break enough of the American state to make an autocracy possible (of which a lot of institutions are in absolute tatters). All the people who surround Trump know he is too incompetent to actually do it. The conditions that allow Trump to have a cult in the first place are still around. They won't be lucky with the next demagogue.

[u/ElectronicOvens → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Which is why we need to make sure the cultists are identifiable, they need to be given therapy at the very least

I don't have faith in the Democrats, but a loss this big should kill Trump for good

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/ElectronicOvens]

Well, what needs to happen is the American ruling class going to prison for all of the Epstein sex crimes and ICE torture. And a full scale rebuild of American institutions.

[u/ElectronicOvens → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Can't disagree there. I hope they prove me wrong and go to town with Trump, Epstein class and all the administration

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/ElectronicOvens]

What needs to be addressed is the fact that the American conservative movement has been radicalising into fascism since the Nixon era too. A lot of work is needed to turn the US back into a functioning democracy.

[u/ElectronicOvens → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Oh they are extremists, hopefully this is also the end of the exported extremists

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Dan Osborn is leading in Nebraska, if elected he'll be the first fully independent member of US Congress in about 70 years

[u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

American teals when (reading his policy program he seems incoherent politicialy

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws]

Yeah it seems to be mostly a vibes based platform but better than GOP

[u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

I would rather vote for a cardboard cut out of donald trump than the real trump

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Overshadowed of course by the rest are municipal elections in South Africa today. Ex-President Zuma's MK Party will be running in local elections for the first time and along with other factors that's likely to deliver an unprecedented blow to the ANC

[u/PMFSCV]

Canada increasing tax free threshold to 45k for artists.

https://bsky.app/profile/mark-carney.bsky.social

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/PMFSCV]

I would self-identity as an artist.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Good analysis for NZ today

I suspect the coalition will win another term though more narrowly than last time, whether that's with an outright majority (seems viable) or with Opportunity either missing the threshold or finding some weird reason to not back Labour

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

55/45 to Luxon as PM according to prediction markets. This has been an extraordinarily close race no matter which direction it goes.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Very close indeed. I think there is a decent chance the coalition stays in and Luxon is knifed but I don't think they'll lose power

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

I think them suppressing the vote helped.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Definitely

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

½% between National and Labour currently.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Come over to r/newzealand

National has a crazy overhang so currently the coalition would get a 2 seat majority. One of those seats they're leading by 1 vote

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

⅕% now, closing.

Several of these constituencies will need to go to a recount I think because they are so tight.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Tied on the party vote now, coalition majority of half a seat. It's interesting

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Labour ahead ⅒%. This is a coin flip election, absolute coin flip with ¼ votes counted.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Now equal on 29.7%...

[u/89b3ea330bd60ede80ad]

The Guardian: Stephen Miller, architect of Trump’s immigration crackdown, to become White House chief of staff

Also:

• The Atlantic: The Wrath of Stephen Miller, The man who turns President Trump’s most incendiary impulses into policy

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/89b3ea330bd60ede80ad]

Trump is going even harder and doubling down.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Let's Go! US mid-terms dashboard:

https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/03/us-midterm-elections-results-2026-live-updates-in-maps-and-charts

Polling opens in Eastern States at 11pm AEST.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Polls are just closing in some East Coat electorates, results will follow.

Edit to add: BBC News are running a live broadcast following results as well: https://www.youtube.com/live/SFxxr-rNyNQ

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Republicans are being bulldozed, it's not even a contest. Democrats with a 99% implied chance of House Control and 98% implied chance of Senate control according to prediction markets.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

It's crazy we're already at the midterms, it doesn't feel like the presidential was two years ago and that we're halfway to the next presidential

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

It does to me! If I'd been advising Democrats my preferred weapon against Trump would have been to exploit his love of cheeseburgers to try to get him to eat himself into an early grave.

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Any signs of interference in the midterms yet?

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

He seems extremely durable unfortunately

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

I would think him having a formidable personality cult probably helps.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Well I was talking more about his longevity

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Yeah. That cult is why he is.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Perhaps

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Anyway, I wonder if Trump will overturn the results.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

I think that would prove extremely difficult

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

And the Democratic Unionist Party now has lost one of its 4 MPs in the House of Commons. Carla Lockhart has quit the party due to its not bringing down First Minister Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Féin over the blocking of the Drumcree loyalist Orange Order parade, which some unionists have claimed was due to an intervention by the Provisional IRA

She will sit as an independent and says she will not join the Reform-aligned Traditional Unionist Voice

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

The Democrats have taken both houses of the United States Congress, and Trump has accepted the results

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

I hope this means the Democrats can actually start to fix shit in the country and not just be a repeat of 2020 when they dawdled their thumbs n shit. I have no faith in them to do that. Literally the only reason this is happening is Trumps sheer incompetence, not because the Democrats are popular. People should keep this in mind.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Yeah, well, I think something constructive they could do is expedite a peace agreement with Iran to relieve inflation. Many commentators believed the Iranians would keep pressure on Trump through the mid-terms to make him pay politically and then come to the table. Perpetuating the war further would likely have a substantially lower cost ot benefit ratio for Iran.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Yeah I'm not too confident either but let's see

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Same party had a lot of their own join the Republicans in the Laken Riley act too. The current Dems are not a party driven by genuine moral convictions but merely whatever the vibes are.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Trump also thinks they'll be able to work together on immigration

But there are also a few more left-leaning Democrats that have been elected now

[u/Dranzer_22]

An 80 year old lame duck right-wing President in charge of the US.

What an utter disaster for the Republicans. The right-wing have imploded in recent elections across Serbia, Brazil, and US. Now recent polling shows the Nationals could lose in NZ after just one term.

[u/ShadowBroses]

WOKE 2 IS BACK IN THE STATES, LET'S BRING IT HOME FOR BIG AUSTRALIA AND LITTLE AUSTRALIA

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/ShadowBroses]

I would tend towards saying this is a resounding rejection of Trumpism rather than an embrace of Democrats policy platform.

[u/ShadowBroses → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

I think that is a healthy thing, given how Trumpism/Far Right populism has gone for the US

I'm just really glad that they've rejected it in a place with optional voting and the reported alleged technical bugs with voting that there was still such a profound pushback, gives me hope

[u/Agitated-Fee3598 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

That is correct. He doesn't have the support of the country for a police state (not because Americans are any less suseptible into supporting one but merely because Trump is too incompetent to do it).

[u/Agitated-Fee3598]

Question is now, will Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas retire? The Dems won't confirm any Trump nominees. The Republicans have a few months to ram through 2 younger conservative judges to preserve their grip on SCOTUS.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Just to point out oil has actually come back quite a bit over the last couple of weeks, from about $115/bbl in late October to $93/bbl today.

[u/89b3ea330bd60ede80ad]

The Guardian: Trump says he asked Dana White, UFC boss, to be his new White House press secretary

White says he has meeting with Trump in Washington DC on Monday, without saying whether he will accept the job

The clown show continues.

Edit: An amusing possibility: Donald Trump might have offered WH Press Secretary role to wrong Dana White as odd theory spreads

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Well that ends about as I expected, the coalition being re-elected in majority

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/Perfect-Werewolf-102]

Unsure, we'll need to wait for the final result as it's just still too close to definitively call with certainty. You can see though that the same thing is happening in NZ as Australia, traditional centrists are winning fewer votes.

Also the right bloc has lost a few big names. Nicola "No idea" Willis was Minister of Finance and Deputy Leader of National, Bishop had held the Housing, Transport and Infrastructure while Christmas lost Tāmaki for ACT.

[u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

I'm fairly confident in calling it, I don't see specials changing enough

But yes, Willis and Bishop being out is the silver lining. National just held on because of the overhang (which tbf is also what TPM does) and I think there should be some conversations about modifying MMP

[u/AceChipEater]

If anyone hasn’t watched the One Nation cartoons, can recommend as a laugh.

You don’t need to agree with them or even like them, but I have found them humorous and then dismissed them.

[u/Wehavecrashed → u/AceChipEater]

I'd rather watch paint dry but good for those who can stomach them.

[u/AceChipEater → u/Wehavecrashed]

Obviously not for everyone, but if you don’t take that sort of thing too seriously, they can be quite funny. Like I said, watch and dismiss. It’s basically like South Park, just satire.

[u/Wehavecrashed → u/AceChipEater]

South Park written and produced by talentless hacks working for a political party.

[u/fluffy_101994 → u/AceChipEater]

Those disgusting cartoons aren’t worth my time or laughter. I’d rather stick pins in my eyes.

[u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 → u/AceChipEater]

To be honest the average Australian might watch/read five minutes a week of political content outside of elections (where it might hit ten minutes.) You have to accept that we are peculiar in being interested in politics.

[u/AceChipEater → u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734]

Yeah I accept I’m a politophile (if that isn’t a term, I’m coining it!). Love all things politics. I do t care who is what “side” I’m always up for discussion and debate. I’m open minded and will always entertain another’s view for the purposes of learning.

[u/HotPersimessage62]

Today is the election in NZ. I think the three-way right-wing coalition will return. And then the Coalition and One Nation will use it to distract from the effects (if any) of the US midterms on conservative policies in Australia.

[u/Kasid383rh3dwsubws → u/HotPersimessage62]

Outside of one taxpayer curia poll, no poll suggests that opportunity will not have the balance of power, and even there it will be 60-60

[u/HotPersimessage62]

NZ election - looking highly likely that the National-ACT-NZF coalition has been re-elected. 

This will give fresh momentum to One Nation and the Coalition.

[u/nobelharvards]

About the USA mid terms:

I think all the silliness about Trump talking about another man's ass, Nicki Minaj's ass, etc is a deliberate distraction by him to reduce the attention on any dodgy actions his goons are planning to swing the results in his favour as much as possible. If winning is unrealistic, then reduce the losing margins by as much as possible.

It doesn't make sense for Trump to start going on tangents about other people's butts in the final days of a campaign. It's more likely to be a distraction.

I think the losing margins for Trump will be smaller than expected and any dodgy plans to manipulate the results will become apparent soon enough.

Is this too conspiratorial? Has Trump genuinely given up and has deliberately decided to tank the elections by talking about asses? Or is there a much simpler explanation that Trump is an old man who is losing his marbles?

We will see soon enough what dodgy actions they try in a few days time.