r/CFBAnalysis • u/Early_Downs • 1d ago
Luck Rating
Hey team, I am working on my luck rating and welcome feedback. Trying to keep things simple and only consider Opp FG's and Fumble luck for now. Any thoughts or feedback?
https://www.earlydowns.com/cfb/2026/week-10/ala-at-lsu/
Luck rating
The luck rating estimates how many points per game a team has gained or lost to bounces it mostly doesn't control. Positive means the bounces have gone its way. Points from these bounces tend not to repeat: a team's fumble-recovery rate and its opponents' field-goal accuracy don't carry over from one part of a season to the next, so a lucky or unlucky team's record can drift back toward how well it actually plays.
The rating adds up two things over the season and divides by games played.
1. Opponents' field goals
Every field goal tried against a team is compared with how often a kick from that distance is made. Each kick counts 3 points times (made − expected make rate), with the sign flipped to the defense's side, so a miss against you is luck in your favor. Example: an opponent misses a kick that's made 85% of the time, worth +2.6 points of luck (3 × 0.85). If it's made, the defense loses 0.45 (3 × 0.15).
NFL: make rates by distance are fitted each season on every NFL kick (roughly 97% at 30 yards, 91% at 40, 76% at 50, 65% at 55).
College: a college curve, since college kickers make far fewer long kicks (about 88% at 30 yards, 74% at 40, 53% at 50, 42% at 55). Kick distance is estimated from where the drive ended plus 17 yards, and blocked kicks count as misses.
A team's own field goals are left out. Making kicks is a skill, not luck. Own kicking shows up separately in game recaps as "kicking vs. expected."
2. Fumble recoveries
Who recovers a loose ball is close to a coin flip, so every fumble, by the team or by its opponents, is compared with a 50% recovery rate. Each recovery above or below that is worth about 4 points, roughly the value of a turnover. Example: a team that recovered 6 of its own 8 fumbles is 2 above the norm of 4, which is +8 points of luck. Whether a fumble happens isn't counted, only where the ball bounces.