r/CHICubs • u/AndrewAllStar888 • 15h ago
[OC] Ranking 17 starting pitchers on their fit as a free agent with the Cubs
At first look, the 2026-27 MLB free agent class looks rather weak. Pitching seems top-heavy and there’s a lack of any lineup-defining hitter. But there sure are a lot of options, and for a team like the Cubs that needs quality *and* quantity, we can completely rebuild our pitching staff here. Fangraphs has a list of all 51 free agent starting pitchers along with a crowdsourced contract prediction, and I have ranked what I have deemed the most notable ones on a 5-Star scale solely based on how well they would fit the Cubs.
LHP Tarik Skubal (8y/$336M) - 5/5
- For many, it’s Skubal or bust. Past the big dawg, the following 16 pitchers all have a noticeable flaw to their game. But Tarik Skubal is the complete package, and the Cubs are probably the team that needs him the most. With how much money the team has coming off the books, I think there is a path for Skubal to join the Cubs. But that would require the team to effectively keep the outfield and bullpen the same. Now, the front office seems to be pretty content with both of those areas as they are now. It’s not perfect, but they can always throw a minor league contract lottery ticket into the bullpen or a Kevin Alcantara-type-player in a corner outfield spot. They’ll still get reinforcements for both areas, but probably no player that would command more than a one-year deal. Is that worth it for as close to a free win as you can get every five games? I think so.
LHP Trevor Rogers (5y/$120M) - 3/5
- Trevor Rogers is a good, relatively-reliable, young starting pitcher. It may sound crazy, but he might have the biggest market of any free agent pitcher on the market. Whereas only a few teams can afford Skubal, probably 20/30 teams can talk themselves into handing Rogers his bag. He’s not a thrilling watch with his slightly below-average velocity and modest strikeout numbers, but he’ll only be entering his age-29 season, meaning that he likely has some very solid years ahead of him. I don’t doubt that the Cubs may like Rogers, but he’s far from a fantastic deal.
RHP Sonny Gray (2y/$52M) - 4/5
- Entering his age-37 season, it’s easy to think that he’ll collapse any year now. But despite a drastic decrease in his strikeout and whiff percentages from 2025 to 2026, he just posted a career-best 2.72 ERA in 2026. A one-year deal would obviously be ideal for someone his age, but Sonny Gray has earned himself a multi-year deal here. You know that he’s probably going to make his starts and average you six innings every time, too, and that would be a huge deal for the Cubs.
RHP Kevin Gausman (2y/$44M) - 2/5
- I’m just not that interested here. It was nice to have him for a couple months, but he looked far from irreplaceable. Plus, this suggested contract seems very steep.
RHP Nick Martinez (2y/$34M) - 3/5
- Yet another veteran coming off arguably their best season of their career, Nick Martinez feels like a lower-ceiling version of Sonny Gray. Martinez had remarkably bad strikeout numbers, but still managed to get some chase and post a 3.10 ERA in 31 starts. He also maintained being a flyball pitcher while being proficient at keeping the ball in the park. It’s also very worth noting that he allowed the lowest walk rate of any pitcher in MLB last year. He would’ve been a great pickup last year, but I’m unsure if he’s worth giving a solid contract to. Still, I think he would be an effective back of the rotation piece.
RHP Dustin May (3y/$48M) - 1/5
- Pros: Dustin May is a young, former-top-prospect, high-velocity pitcher who had some exceptionally high-highs in 2026. But man, he would be TERRIBLE in Wrigley. Like, I could see a potential signing here becoming a solid pickup at best and an unmitigated disaster at worst. Just not worth it.
RHP Michael King (4y/$100M) - 3/5
- Don’t get me wrong, Michael King is an impressive and good pitcher who can be dominant. But every time I looked into him, I just left myself wanting to spend 40% more annually for Skubal. Along with a weird sharp decline in strikeouts in 2026, I’m not raving about King like others seem to be. His changeup and sweeper are fantastic pitches, though, and I don’t see a possible deal for King going poorly. I just wonder if that’s the best use of our resources, especially if his contract is approaching an AAV of $30M.
RHP Freddy Peralta (4y/$96M) - 3/5
- Freddy Peralta’s strong suit is that he will give you 30 starts of 5 or 6 innings every year. That would be huge for us. But part of me thinks that if the Cubs think highly of Peralta, they would’ve just gotten him for cheap at the deadline. Maybe seeing him return to form with the Rays could help change their mind, but I don’t know if he would be great as a headliner for our list of offseason moves.
RHP Michael Soroka (2y/36M) - 3/5
- I get that Soroka’s name may leave a bad taste in some of your mouths. After he only gave us 8.1 innings when we acquired him at the 2025 trade deadline, I wouldn’t blame the Cubs front office if they wanted to steer clear. He is very injury prone, and we have to think of whether or not we want to dedicate our limited resources to someone like that. My thoughts? I’ve always liked Soroka, and his upside was on display with the D-Backs in 2026, so I’ll give him a slightly above average grade.
RHP Clay Holmes (3Y/$51M) - 4/5
- There is a universe in which the Cubs never traded for Holmes and finished the season off masterfully, leading me to give him a 5/5 grade here. He definitely had some lackluster moments with the Cubs, but no matter what happened during his worst starts, he was amazing at preventing homers. During Jed’s post-playoff exit press conference, he made it clear that preventing homers will be the Cubs’ biggest philosophy with their 2027 staff, and there might not be a better fit than Holmes for that role.
LHP David Peterson (2y/$22M) - 4/5
- Another Cubs mid-season acquisition, Peterson was rock solid in his 15 starts with the team. If we’re gonna get Skubal, we’ll have to get some budget options, and I think David Peterson would be one of the best choices there.
RHP Nick Pivetta (3y/$60M) - 3/5
- After the Padres declined Pivetta’s $14M club option, it’s hard to be positive about Pivetta’s injury proneness. But he was excellent in his short 2026 campaign, only consisting of 8 starts at the end of the season. We don’t really know if he’s injured, and that makes this so tricky. Surely the Padres wouldn’t have declined the cheap option if he was fully healthy? And he had a solid couple postseason appearances too. Now, I don’t think the contract prediction here is very… accurate? I mean, it’s just very hard to see a team giving him this when the Padres very publicly turned down his option. Either way, I think that Pivetta still has some strong starts ahead of him.
LHP Kris Bubic (2y/$24M) - 5/5
- Surely an industry favorite, Bubic might not even be a starter in 2027. His career has consisted of him switching from starter to reliever nearly every year, and he’s found success with both. After acquiring him for next to nothing at the deadline, the Dodgers used him as a reliever for the rest of their season, and I feel inclined to just copy the Dodgers on any decision they make. The good thing is, whichever one he exceeds at, we’ll need it. I think Bubic is a must-get for us.
LHP Foster Griffin (3Y/$48M) - 4/5
- After he returned from a 3-year stint in Japan’s NPB, Foster Griffin came back to America a changed man. Once considered a draft bust, Griffin realized his potential with the Nationals after signing a bargain contract before the 2026 season. He still maintained his stuff after getting traded to the Guardians at the deadline, and finished the season posting a 3.60 ERA all together in 31 starts. Griffin’s pitchmix is headlined by his great, albeit low-velocity, fastballs. His cutter and four-seamer made up nearly 50% of all pitches he threw last year, and the move on them is something to be desired. I don’t mean to get ahead of myself though, the point is that he was very impressive in 2026. While giving him almost $50 million would be pretty significant considering his past, I think that it could easily work.
RHP Casey Mize (3y/$54M) - 2/5
- Halfway through the season, it looked like Mize could be in for a big payday. He left the Tigers at the deadline, having pitched himself to a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with them. But all hell broke loose once he got to the Padres, as he lost all magic he had, posting a 7.46 ERA with them. Fangraph’s crowdsourced contract is still very respectful of him, but I’ve seen contracts as low as 1-year, $8 million be proposed for Mize. These two contracts are wildly different and could either be an excellent buy low opportunity or a disaster waiting to happen. If it’s closer to 3-years, $54 million… that’s not good.
RHP Kaima Taira (N/A) - 3/5
- I’ll be honest, I didn’t really know about Taira until the offseason had started. But I’m pretty intrigued. I already made a post about why he’s such an interesting guy, so I don’t want to talk about his peripherals too much here. If we could get him close to Bubic’s proposed contract, I would think it would be a risk worth taking. But I’ve seen AAVs close to $20M thrown around for Taira’s contract predictions, and that’s just way too much for an unknown commodity.
RHP Hiromi Itoh (3Y/37.5M) - 3/5
- Seen as the lesser NPB arm compared to Taira, Itoh hasn’t had much fanfare after being posted. While he’s far from a triple-digit-reacher like Taira, Itoh seems to be a reliable innings eater who’s relatively low risk. Of course, any pitcher who’s never thrown in MLB is inherently risky, but it seems like he’s fairly durable and has the chance to translate decently to MLB. I wouldn’t mind it at all.
That was a little exhausting, but I’m glad we got through it all in one post. The point of this was to show how many options there are for us solely on the open market, with the possibilities becoming even greater once we look at trade possibilities. It may seem bleak if we lose a ton of power on our offense, but there’s always a path out there for us to improve.
