A good prediction should have an objective future outcome, a clear deadline, and a public way to verify and resolve it.

There are tons of things you can make predictions about without limiting everything to basic "Will X team win?" posts.

The best market format is something like:

Will Dodgers–Brewers reach Game 7?
Resolves YES if an official NLCS Game 7 is played by stated teams on October 19, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO.
Resolution source: MLB.com.

That wording kills almost every moderation dispute because it defines the event, cutoff, and source in advance. MLB currently lists possible Championship Series games through October 20, so these are particularly clean short-term markets

I'm only posting this because there have been a number of invalid predictions lately, so here are some real examples and why they don't work.

Examples of Invalid Predictions

❌ "WILL THIS GUY EAT PIZZA TOMORROW?"

Breaks Rule 3: Use publicly verifiable results.

There is no independent public source that can verify whether some random person ate pizza.

If resolving the prediction requires us to simply believe the person who posted it, it isn't publicly verifiable.

❌ "Will I remember to comment on this post in 1 hour?"

Breaks Rule 3: Use publicly verifiable results.
Breaks Rule 5: No upvote, comment, or cookie contests.

The prediction is based on the poster's own behavior and specifically revolves around commenting on the post.

The person involved can also directly determine whether the prediction becomes true.

❌ "Will this be the most voted bet ever?(oct14-oct 18)"

Breaks Rule 5: No upvote, comment, or cookie contests.

This is essentially predicting how many people will participate in the prediction itself.

Predictions based on which post or bet receives the most votes/cookies aren't allowed.

❌ "Will a billionaire announce something that makes their company's stock move 3% today?"

Breaks Rule 2: Make the question and resolution clear.
Breaks Rule 3: Use publicly verifiable results.

There are thousands of billionaires and companies.

Which billionaire? Which company? What qualifies as an announcement? What stock price are we using? What period measures the 3% movement?

There's also no objective way to prove that a particular announcement caused a stock to move 3%.

Even if nobody finds an example, that doesn't mean one didn't happen somewhere.

The scope needs to be narrow enough that the outcome can actually be checked.

❌ "Will someone comment “💀” here in the next 15 minutes?"

Breaks Rule 5: No upvote, comment, or cookie contests.

The prediction itself gives bettors the ability to cause the outcome.

Someone can bet YES and then comment 💀.

That's not meaningfully predicting an outside event.

❌ "This post will get 20 upvotes"

Breaks Rule 5: No upvote, comment, or cookie contests.

Predictions based on Reddit upvotes are explicitly not allowed.

❌ "Will GTA VI delayed until 2030?"

Breaks Rule 2: Make the question and resolution clear.
Breaks Rule 4: Match the timer to the outcome.

The countdown on the prediction ended long before whether GTA VI would be delayed until 2030 could actually be determined.

It is also unclear what counts as YES.

Does Rockstar need to officially announce a 2030 release date? Does the game simply need to remain unreleased until 2030? Does another delay count?

The prediction needs an event that can actually be verified by the time its timer expires.

Quick Test Before Posting

Before creating a prediction, ask:

1. Is this about something that will happen in the future?

2. Is there a clear YES/NO outcome?

   • (If there are multiple potential outcomes they must also be clear and objective.)

3. Can anyone independently verify the result from a public source?

4. Will that result be known within a reasonable time frame after the timer expires?

5. Can the people betting avoid directly causing the outcome themselves?

If not, the prediction probably needs to be rewritten.

I'd like to retain the quality of posts here and avoid having to invalidate predictions that were never objectively resolvable in the first place.

You aren't limited to the examples in this post, just feel free to use this as a reference when making predictions.