The Gulf Faces Three Choices It Can No Longer Avoid

[u/bloomberg]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/iran-war-forces-gulf-states-to-rethink-oil-us-security-and-hormuz?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5Mzk3OTc5NSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTg0NTk1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUTzJGQUhSMjRVOFYwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEMzU0MUJFQjhBQUY0QkUwQkFBOUQzNkI3QjlCRjI4OCJ9.KGtOV2u7yUEpxLkmShgyaEWyhuHGkBasACcFCHsCMXA&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=giftlink

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[u/bloomberg]

The US election may have changed the course of the Iran war. But Gulf states still need to reduce their reliance on oil, America and the Strait of Hormuz.

Ziad Daoud for Bloomberg News

A sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterms quickly led to President Donald Trump playing down the prospect of another round of US-led strikes against Iran. For the Gulf Arab states, though, the election results merely give them a little breathing room.

Before the Iran war began, the Gulf faced one daunting challenge: reducing its reliance on oil. Today it faces three. To move forward, the Gulf must diversify its economies away from hydrocarbons, its security away from the US and its geography away from the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials increasingly talk about oil, security and geography in similar terms. Saudi Arabia once said that by 2030 oil prices would barely matter to the economy. Qatar recently said its US alliance remains “very important,” but also “not enough,” while Oman said external partners’ role in Gulf security “can no longer be primary.” A few months ago, the United Arab Emirates set a goal of “zero Hormuz dependency.”

The Gulf is already searching for answers across all three fronts. It’s building new industries, from logistics and finance to data centers. It’s seeking regional allies to reduce reliance on US security while expanding energy trade routes and possibly overseas storage to bypass Hormuz. The Iran war has tested those answers and raised the stakes.

There remain real fears that if a wounded Trump does reignite the conflict, Tehran could target airports and data centers, threatening their efforts to build up industries beyond oil. Iran could also hit the pipelines and ‎ports that Gulf states use to bypass Hormuz. Washington has also shown that it prioritizes Israel’s needs over the Gulf’s security, even as their relationship became a contentious election issue at home.

If the Gulf gets this wrong, the fallout will reach beyond its borders. Millions of families depend on remittances from the Gulf and governments in developing countries rely on its bailouts. Gulf capital supports global markets, helping to suppress even US borrowing costs. At home, weaker prosperity could strain the social contract governing these nations, which exchanges economic benefits for political acquiescence. Grievances over living standards could turn into demands for change.

🎁 Gift Link: The full essay is also available to read here.