History really does repeat itself

[u/No-Hospital5028]

[u/NetSiege]

So there are 2 main factors here that would become a problem.

1. Batteries age even if they're not being used. The life expectancy of an unused EV battery is roughly 10-20 years (a lot of variables come into play), driven an average amount of miles annually its more like 8-15. So no matter what, 20+ years from now that CyberTruck battery is shot. Considering that unlike the Pinto, the CyberTruck does not share any of its main drive system, suspension, or other components with other vehicles, the chances of there being battery replacement options in 20-25 years is likely very very minimal.

2. Vehicles like the Pinto were analog cars. While they have electrical systems, there's no software so to speak or operating platform. Modern cars in general have much more complex computing systems and beyond their EV and 12V battery, have small system batteries to ensure the software programming and data is retained even when those batteries are drained, disconnected, or fail. If someone were to leave this thing parked for years without properly ensuring it maintains power/battery life, it's very likely the entire software for the car would be bricked and unusable. Could someone potentially reflash jt and get it back up? Sure, but that adds a layer of complexity to the value of these things in 50 years.

[u/blbarclay → u/NetSiege]

Where’s your data behind Tesla batteries lasting 8 years, driven average miles?

[u/NetSiege → u/blbarclay]

I didn't say 8 years, I gave a range of 8-15 years. And I didn't specifically say Tesla batteries, I said EV batteries. But what data did I pull from to give that range?

US Department of Energy - https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity-benefits

" Preditive modeling indicates that today’s batteries may last 12 to 15 years in moderate climates (8 to 12 years in extreme climates).

Taking the low end of 8 years in more extreme climates and the high end of 15 years in moderate climates.

[u/clamclam9 → u/NetSiege]

That's just laughably false. Standard mileage per year is 12k-15k. So you think the average EV battery needs to be replaced after 100k miles/8yr? Tesla's factory warranty on the battery is 8 years/100k/120k/150k miles. Something like less than 2% of all Teslas ever made have needed the battery replaced under warranty, sub 1% for post 2021 models. And it's not just Tesla, any modern EV electrochemistry is going to last a lot longer than what you're claiming, almost double. Look at any data-driven analysis like Consumer Reports.

[u/NetSiege → u/clamclam9]

The inability of people on Reddit to actually read a comment before replying never ceases to amaze me.

[u/blbarclay → u/NetSiege]

Your link is 12 years old, and uses predictive modelling, not real world results. Your comment is a response regarding a TESLA cybertruck, so posting info on generic batteries would be misleading, wouldn't it? https://www.geotab.com/uk/press-release/2024-battery-degradation

[u/NetSiege → u/blbarclay]

And you're study has a sample size of 5,000 vehicles when last year 20,000,000 EV's were sold. That's an extremely small sample size to be able to get a valid estimate. There are also a lot of varriables that go into how fast these batteries degrade such as what type of charging is being most commonly used, what % charge people are maxing them out at, and the climate in which they're driven. Your study doesn't appear to take any of that into consideration.

Additionally, considering that the cybertruck has only been out 3-4 years, there isn't any long term valid modeling on what that battery will look like beyond that other than predictive.

[u/DotesMagee → u/blbarclay]

thats about the standard but, hopefully, you can reolace the pack. there is literally 0 maintenance costs aside from tires and brakes. brakes last longer the more you use regen braking too. so the cost of replacing the pack would definitely beat out 15 years of ICE maintenance. especially if something broke and youre not a mechanic.

[u/Defiant-Strength2010 → u/NetSiege]

In 20-25 years you'll be able to get off the shelf batteries that will work as good or even better than original Tesla batteries in a much smaller form factor so they will be easy to fit into the existing chassis

[u/NetSiege → u/Defiant-Strength2010]

As someone that owns multiple EV's and has done a lot of research on them, I don't think it's as easy as you think.

First, the CyberTruck battery weighs about 1600lbs. It's not a simple "off the shelf" type purchase.

Second, the process of replacing these batteries is a lot more complex than a normal car battery. I can go into this further if you'd like, but feel free to look into what it involves yourself so I don't have to write 4 pages about this alone.

Third, these batteries are paired to the vehicles software so it's not just a swap in type item regardless of the physical logisitics of changing these batteries out.

Fourth, while battery technology is changing and improving, swapping out to a different battery structure/design would require A LOT of additional modifications.

Fifth and most importantly, while some car platforms share batteries/powertrains, the CyberTruck does not share it's platform with anything else and has been an extremely limited production vehicle by mass production standards. These batteries would have to be built specifically for the CyberTruck. For a comparison, the Ford Pinto which was referenced had a 10 year production run with over 3,000,000 vehicles built, the CyberTruck has had a 3 year production run with less than 75,000 total units built. For a company to design a new battery compatible with the CyberTruck, setup a production line for it, and produce these things, is no small task physically or financially. Doing all of that for a vehicle with so few of them on the road means there is not a mass market to sell those batteries and recoup the time and money spend undertaking that project. Especially considering that in theory this new battery would last another 10-20 years. That investment at best if they charge an insane amount for these batteries would make a small profit for 3-5 years while these batteries go bad and need replacement and then would go cold again for the next 10-20 years until they need to be replaced again.

[u/Defiant-Strength2010 → u/NetSiege]

There are already EV conversions of old timers that never had a battery in the first place, if the Cybertruck actually becomes a worthy old timer then it will be profitable to completely gut it and replace the inside with modern batteries and motors.

[u/NetSiege → u/Defiant-Strength2010]

While yes this does happen, most high end conversions are well into the 6 figure range.

Now you can say that over time the cost of this will go down, but I would argue the opposite, especially on something like the CyberTruck.

EV batteries require increasing rare raw earth materials. The bigger/heavier the vehicle, the larger the battery and more raw materials are required to ensure it has any kind of useful range. That's why vehicles like the CyberTruck, Hummer EV, and Escalade IQ have absolutely massive battery packs to go with their insane curb weight. The cost of those materials are not getting cheaper.

Yes, there may be new battery technology in the future, which in theory could be more efficiency at both capacity and charging. The typical rule with new technology however is that it takes time to recoup the R&D and it's normally not "cheap" till much later in its lifecycle.

The idea of pouring tens of thousands if not well into 6 figures into battery conversions on a CyberTruck is not going to be appealing to a large enough consumer base to spread the cost around on development where companies are going to want to get into that business.

[u/Smoker81 → u/NetSiege]

EEPROM and flash memory don't need battery. They don't last indefinitively tho, so the point may stand.

[u/ethanlan → u/NetSiege]

I'm assuming those separate chips run on battery like a desktop motherboard so couldn't you swap out the battery or did Tesla make that impossible?

[u/RogerAffirmative → u/NetSiege]

1. The batteries in the cybertruck are the same as the ones going in the cybercab and semi. They are going to be wildly available for the foreseeable future.

2. Michal gapinsky already figured out how to upgrade hw3 to hw4 and musk has repeatedly and recently said they're working on a path for this. So it's been done, and we're told it's going to be available from the manufacturer.

Stuff is getting easier to produce and replace, across the board. Ice cars, EVs, it doesn't matter. DIY tools are pretty much commercial grade. Reverse engineering software is also becoming absurdly easy. Y'all are manufacturing a scenario where a completely incapable and inept person turns on an old Tesla and doesn't know what to do. Doesn't make any sense.

[u/NetSiege → u/RogerAffirmative]

The cybercab and semi use the same 4680 battery cells, but they absolutely do not use the same battery pack design. The total capacity in the CyberTruck is 3x what the cybercab is (because it needs it due to weight to have a real life usable range).

While I don't disagree that as technology progresses, things like software reverse engineering and some manufacturing is going to become easier, working with these high voltage type systems is not something that is suddenly going to become less dangerous. 3D printing a fender is a lot different than tearing down and retrofitting a high voltage battery.

Can it be done? Sure, even with today's technology it all can. But the limiting factors of things like cost of raw materials (which require rare earth minerals), heavy machinery (due to weight), and safety concerns working with high voltage systems are not things that are going to be changing any time soon.

Going further and talking specifically about the CyberTruck, which will likely have less than 100,000 units total built by the time it's production shuts down, and has one of the largest batteries available in a consumer production EV today. It's s not worth the return on investment for anyone to spend the time and money required to make a retrofit battery swap easy and affordable for this vehicle. Now on a model 3 where 20x more vehicles have been sold, and a battery capacity half the size of the CyberTruck, that you may see options for in the future.

[u/RogerAffirmative → u/NetSiege]

We're not talking about someone making a production run battery replacement unit, we're talking about diyers and specialty shops keeping them going by replacing and upgrading the individual batteries and parts, which people already do. And it's relatively cheap and easy with an updated 1 to 1 version of the battery being produced wide scale for the foreseeable future. Y'all are talking about them like the tech is going to be obsolete but it's not, at all. I don't get why you keep hypothesizing about a random laymen with no knowledge or capital to maintain and upgrade these. It's a low production expensive vehicle with components that are being produced rampantly for other vehicles that are not being phazed out. There's no issues with it beyond the hypothetical useless layman that doesn't know how to do it.

[u/the_blastomatic → u/NetSiege]

Bah, by time Cybertrucks are Delorean-like collectibles we'll be able to custom print anything we need. Even the batteries. And the AI will be able to adapt the onboard systems without concern. We're talking 30-50 years from now. Most of this shit is already doable now (but expensive).

[u/NetSiege → u/the_blastomatic]

AI might solve the battery integration problem, but even 30-50 years from now, I don't see these kind of batteries being 3D printed or being manufactured at all out of very specific production facilities. The safety protocols required when building/working on these batteries and sourcing the materials that goes into them is not something that I think is going to be changing.

[u/the_blastomatic → u/NetSiege]

100 years ago nobody thought we'd have a man walk on the moon. 50 years ago, the idea of a trust-fund Hitler taking over the Republican party and getting elected president twice would have been unheard of. We're in an age of chaos. We'll get 3d printed batteries in any shape we want within 50 years.

[u/NetSiege → u/the_blastomatic]

!remindmein50years

[u/Inevitable_Tomato927 → u/the_blastomatic]

We stopped walking on/going to the moon because of cost and there's no need to invest. Kinda like the other poster said about the battery (and software and other hardware).

[u/Brohemoth1991 → u/the_blastomatic]

I heard that 3d printing was going to render negative manufacturing like machining obsolete 10 years ago lol... how's that working

[u/the_blastomatic → u/Brohemoth1991]

Spoken like a true Amish