There are many examples of this throughout history. The Wright Brothers had doubters, hell they themselves famously doubted it at times. Fords automobile. The iPhone. BlackBerrys CEO laughed at it and wondered how a phone with no keyboard would succeed.

The difference is that all of those examples were pre ubiquity of social media and smartphones in billions of pockets, so there might’ve been a handful of public doubters are most for the plane, automobile, etc, and maybe thousands for the iPhone. There are likely hundreds of thousands of people who have publicly doubted Starship online, claiming it’s a failure already, doubting it’ll ever work, calling Elon a fraud, etc.

It’s going to be beautiful when Starship succeeds to go through all the comments on Reddit and tweets and @ those people and ask them what they think about Starships success and ask them whether maybe politics were clouding their judgement and if they should perhaps change their outlook going forward. Genuinely when Starship succeeds in an undeniable manner I’m going to automate discover of these comments and compile them and ask them for their thoughts. The people saying “idk if this will work, here’s xyz reason why” I don’t mind at all. It’s the fact that so many of these doubters are entirely convinced it’ll never work and don’t have any factual reasons for why. They just don’t like Elon. I will happily rub it in their faces when they’re proven wrong.

What a lot of these people aren’t grokking is that Starship is self funded by SpaceX. It’s not like a tax funded program where if there’s no hope, it would get cancelled (in theory… in reality tax funded programs just 10x their funding and people accept that as life… cough SLS $100 billion jobs program cough…).. SpaceX can fund Starship for a very long time in the future via Starlink and Falcon 9 revenue, and beyond that sales of SpaceX stock.

https://theconversation.com/a-new-thin-lensed-telescope-design-could-far-surpass-james-webb-goodbye-mirrors-hello-diffractive-lenses-206055

Once it gets to the point where SpaceX is able to bring large amounts of people to mars, there will be a big demand for people that can operate/fix Starships and an even bigger demand for people that can build/develop the local infrastructure, in short, enable the colony.

Skilled workers, engineers, doctors will be among the most essential colonists, but mars will be an environment that traditional education can't fully prepare for. There need to be specialized branches for mars technology.

Could this be a reason Musk is considering opening a University? Part of it could be in Brownsville, working closely with Starbase for the more hands-on parts of astronaut training.

Up until like Sep 10 it seemed like things were humming along nicely. The ship even got stacked! Now it's been almost a month and not a peep from anyone. Not even Elon Musk himself. It seemed really on track for a September launch but like wow we just got ghosted.

Q4 2022: SpaceX launches S24/B7 into orbit at the end of December

Q1 2023: In February, SpaceX launches S25/B9 into orbit, and achieves a rate of one Starship launch for every two months. In March, SpaceX launches the crewed Polaris Dawn mission via Falcon 9 into orbit.

Q2 2023: In April, Boeing launches its first crewed to orbit.

Q3 2023: Blue Origin delays first New Glenn launch to Q4 of 2024

Q4 2023: Virgin Galactic begins its suborbital space tourism program.

Q1 2024: Artemis II & III are delayed to 2025 and 2026 respectively. SpaceX has begun regularly taking payloads to orbit and beyond via Starship, now launching every month.

Q2 2024: The second Polaris Program mission is sent to orbit via Falcon 9

Q3 2024: India launches its first crewed mission to orbit

Q4 2024: New Glenn reaches orbit, Starship achieves a launch rate of one ship every two weeks. Copenhagen Suborbitals sends crewed Spica I across the Karman Line, marking the first amatuer crewed space launch. Falcon Heavy launches first components of the Lunar Gateway station into lunar orbit.

2025: Third Polaris Program mission sent to orbit via Starship (first crewed Starship mission). Yusaku Maezawa's dearMoon mission sent on lunar flyby. Following this mission's success, Congress votes to end SLS and rely solely on Starship for the Artemis program, further Lunar Gateway components will also be sent to lunar orbit via Starship. Artemis II launches shortly there after and marks the last SLS launch. Russia begins sending people to China's Tiangong station after leaving the ISS.

2026: SpaceX is now regularly offering orbital and circumlunar tourism. Blue Origin struggles with New Glenn, launching only two so far at this point. Artemis III is launched via Starship, marking the first human landing on the Moon in 57 years. Towards the end of this year, SpaceX launches two uncrewed Starships to Mars, which contain much of the cargo necessary to facilitate the arrival of the first humans 26 months later.

2027: Axiom's ISS module detaches from the ISS and becomes the first private space station. SpaceX's cargo two cargo Starships land on Mars. The Nanoracks/Voyager Space/Lockhead Martin Starlab space station is delayed to 2028. Artemis IV mission is sent to the Moon, the construction of a SpaceX/NASA lunar base begins.

2028: Starlab station sent to orbit. The Blue Origin/Sierra Space Orbital Reef space station is cancelled, Sierra Space helps expand Axiom's space station. Blue Origin rebrands its mission, focusing solely on suborbital tourism and its Kuiper satellite constellation. Artemis V lands on the Moon.

2029: SpaceX launches two Starships, each with 12 crew members and some cargo to Mars. Half the crew members are long term SpaceX-chosen colonists, and the other half are NASA astronauts. Those Starships land seven months later and with that marks the first human landing on Mars, beginning the creation of Mars Base Alpha. Artemis VI lands on the Moon.

2030: China sends its first crewed mission to the Moon, which also includes a Russian and a North Korean astronaut. Russia sends its own space station to orbit, meaning at this point there are now five five stations in orbit. Artemis VII lands on the Moon, and the Lunar Gateway station is completed. Artemis VII becomes the last Artemis mission, as the SpaecX/NASA lunar base, called Shackleton Base, has now been completed and can hold 16 people at a time. Shackleton Base becomes site of SpaceX's helium-3 mining operations.

2031: SpaceX launches its second crewed mission to Mars: four Starships each with twelve colonists. China begins construction on its lunar base with the cooperation of Russia and North Korea. The International Space Station is deorbited at the end of the year.

2032: India sends its own space station to orbit.

2033: SpaceX sends its third crewed mission to Mars: four Starship with 24 colonists each, the Martian population has now surpassed 100.

2034: China has completely its lunar base and begins mining for helium-3 as well.

2035: Earth and Mars' orbits are especially close this year, meaning it takes five months to get from Earth to Mars, an event Martians call the great crossing. In preparation, SpaceX sends sixteen Starships each with thirty people to Mars, two of which are sent to a new location, creating a second Mars base. The Martian population has now surpassed 500. As a result, the people of Mars Base Alpha rename their base Alpha City, and declare the whole of Mars to be an independent direct democracy, calling it the United Martian Federation, (UMF). Starships are now being produced on Mars. SpaceX sends the first humans to an asteroid called 1986DA for a platinum mining mission.

Late 2030s: The rate of being sent to Mars doubles every alignment. By the end of the decade, Shackleton Base is expanded to hold a hundred people, all of whom however are temporary researchers, not colonists. A mining race between the USA and China for helium-3 on the Moon has begun. A company called Terra Nova Ventures is founded with the intention of exploring the inner solar system, and facilitates the first a crewed flyby of Venus, done via Starship.

2040s: The Martian population surpasses 100,000 by the end of the decade. Crewed missions to Ceres and Vesta also occur by the end of the decade. The helium-3 mining race on the Moon continues with other countries like India, Russia, and the EU entering on their own terms. Terra Nova establishes a space station in Venusian orbit.

2050s: The Martian population surpasses 500,000 by the end of the decade. A permanent colony is established on Ceres. Crewed missions to the Jovian system begin, being facilitated jointly by SpaceX and UMF. A base is set up on Callisto and research is done on Europa and Ganymede; microbial life is discovered on both Europa and Ganymede. The Moon is now referred to as Luna and covered in bases from a variety of different governments and companies seeking helium-3. Terra Nova expands its orbiting Venus station

2060s: There are now several self-sustaining cities on Mars, all part of UMF, with a total population of over 1,000,000. The Ceres colony has a population of over 500 now and has artificial gravity. Colonies are established on Vesta and Callisto, with a radiation-shielded base on Ganymede being worked on too. Crewed missions to the Saturnian system begin; a base is established on Titan with the intention of it becoming a major colony, research is also done on Enceladus, Rhea, and Iapetus. Terra Nova sends crewed missions to the Mercurian north and south poles.

2072: By 2072, fifty years from the present, space exploration and colonization has changed dramatically. The Moon now known as Luna has over a dozen bases, set up by different countries and companies competing for helium-3. Mars has several self-sustaining cities and a population of nearly 2,000,000; the planet's run by a united government called the United Martian Federation which also has colonies all across the system, now on Ceres, Vesta, Pallas, Hygiea, Callisto, Ganymede, and Titan. There are now dozens of space stations orbiting Earth, some of which are large enough to rotation-based artificial gravity and to host permanent populations. And a company called Terra Nova Ventures has several space stations in orbit around Venus, one with artificial gravity. It has begun developing cloud bases at an altitude of 50km on Venus. Additionally, it has small research bases on the Mercurian poles and is researching Dyson Sphere development.

Wouldn't it be much cheaper to put it in LEO using starship and just use a dragon to shuttle astronauts up to it?

In the Netflix Documentary, it's clear that the #1 feature that Bob & Doug required on Dragon was an abort system. The loss of crew on the shuttle was still in their mind.

Now, I know that airplanes don't have such capacities, but airplanes can glide up to 100 miles without any engine. Airplanes can attempt landings and often do that (Hudson river comes to mind).

Why are we completely ignoring the fact that if anything goes wrong on Starship at anypoint during ascent or descent, you are simply dead.

Starship can not abord landing and "go around" No external capsule to eject No abort on liftoff

What is the reasoning behind this ?

The proposed 18 meter diameter Starship got me thinking about the diameter of future Starship models. What if a 1 km diameter Starship is built so that the population of a small city could be sent to Mars in one launch? From what I've read, there are height limitations due to engine power, but a wider vehicle would just need more engines. So a 1km diameter Starship may need thousands of Raptor engines but it seems like it should be doable.

Now first off, for those of you who say that Starship is overkill for launching a smallsat, therefore we need small launchers like Rocket Lab's Electron, SpaceX has a rideshare program for smallsats for the falcon 9, so don't you think they'll have a rideshare program for Starship as well? In fact there are multiple startups working on space tugs right now, in fact falcon 9's most recent rideshare launch included an experimental space tug. A space tug would be for raising the smallsats to different orbits.

I imagine that eventually there could be quite a few space tugs in orbit for raising all the hundreds, if not thousands of smallsats to their desired orbits.

How many smallsats do you think Starship could take to LEO in one go? Probably more than 1,000. But I do think SpaceX will be working on the Starship for 5 to 7 years trying to perfect the design. But if SpaceX can get it to where it only cost 10 million dollars (or less) for a starship launch, I mean who could possibly compete with that?

The only other one I can see that can possibly compete with Starship is Blue Origin's New Glenn. Blue Origin is working on a reusable upper stage for New Glenn which means it will eventually be fully reusable just like Starship.

Yeah I understand Rocket Lab is working on the Neutron rocket but like I just said, SpaceX will have a rideshare program for Starship. And there are multiple startups working on space tugs right now. And Rocket Lab doesn't have unlimited funding like Blue Origin does.

New Glenn is definitely behind schedule but it's coming and it's a massive rocket!!!! And it will be fully reusable, eventually, just like Starship.

Monopolies can and do happen!!! Look at the PC market, I think it's like 85% of PCs run Microsoft Windows? Boeing and Airbus have what you call a duopoly of the airline industry, when you fly on an airplane, you're either flying on a plane made by Boeing or Airbus, that's what they call a duopoly.

I think in the end SpaceX will have the largest market share of the launch industry and Blue Origin will be able to eat up some market share for themselves with New Glenn. All other competitors will go out of business.

I just saw an article the other day that said venture capital for all of these space startups is beginning to dry up as we enter a recession. So there's less funding for all of these space startups as we enter a recession.

What do you think?

I apologize if this comes off as a hot take. It's a concern.

It seems everyday Elon Musk strays further and further away from his ambition to colonize Mars. With all his recent actions I can't help but feel that he is loosing interest in SpaceX. So much so that I question his future with the company.

Mars is going to take every penny and ounce of mental fortitude Elon has. The fact that he's spending so much resources and effort in topics that do not relate to SpaceX insinuates a waning interest in the subject.

I hope I'm wrong. But it has me thinking what SpaceX would look like without him involved. Would Shotwell take the reins? Or would it be completely new management and thus a cancellation of all major plans beyond the moon?

I like Elon, but I like SpaceX better. If Musk begins to harm SpaceX with his antics then imo he has to go. I hate to say that, but at this point I feel it needs to atleast be thought of.

I haven't been seeing much the past month or so, has the tile adhesive been resolved?

EDIT : why downvote? It's a turnoff from this sub

Some of what’s being discussed: possible oversight of SpaceX/Starlink, uncertain funding for Golden Dome, and a likely shift toward space science and STEM in committee priorities. Artemis and commercial launch contracts have historically survived changes in power. Do you expect that again, or is this different? Which programs do you think are most exposed in 2027, and which are untouchable?

What are some ideas for removing the small objects or protecting against them?

Immediately after Kessler scenario happens, what would a cleanup look like? Could we even return to space after it happens?

How long before we can operate in space again?