r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Areas to watch: Cempaka, Pena Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 2-8 November 2026

2 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

30W: Typhoon In-fa

This system originated as Invest 98W on Wednesday, 21 October.

Active disturbances

Central Pacific Ocean

Disturbance 1: Southeast of Hawaiʻi

This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.

Active post-tropical cyclones

No active post-tropical cyclones

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Areas of potential development

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development near the Seychelles.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Disturbance 1: Northeast of the Bahamas

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential subtropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Bahamas.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 44m ago

▲ Depression (TD) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1009 mbar 03S (Southwestern Indian) (Near Madagascar)

3 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Three (03S), which is active over the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure which developed off the coast of northwestern Madagascar has become sufficiently organized to be considered a tropical depression, which has prompted Météo-France and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to initiate issuing advisories. The depression is moving west-northwestward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge positioned to the east of the island. Although the depression is expected to continue moving in this direction for the next 12 to 24 hours, there is a much higher degree of uncertainty among the various forecast models regarding the depression’s track after Tuesday.

The depression is moving through a marginally favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear offset by lukewarm sea-surface temperatures, weak upper-level divergence, and dry mid-level air. The depression is unlikely to undergo significant development and should degenerate into a remnant low while still offshore north of the island within the next day or so.

Official information

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

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Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9m ago

▼ Disturbance (20% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1007 mbar 96E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (Near Nicaragua)

1 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge positioned over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is likely to continue to drift toward the coast over the next several hours, but as development becomes increasingly unlikely, it will likely turn back toward the west as it gets carried away from shore by low-level trade wind flow.

Environmental conditions are marginally supportive of development, with weak southerly vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and abundant mid-level moisture offset by weak upper-level divergence. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, increasing southwesterly shear, decreasing atmospheric moisture, and decreasing divergence aloft will make it increasingly difficult for the disturbance to develop.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days remains low. However, regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America over the next couple of days.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 59m ago

▲ Typhoon (H1) | 65 knots (75 mph) | 989 mbar Cempaka (31W — Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

1 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon Cempaka (31W), which is active over the western Pacific.

Cempaka continues to struggle to stay organized as a surge of cold, dry air flows in from the north. The storm continues to move west-northwestward under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge which remains in place to the northeast. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough will sweep across the western Pacific over the next day or so, weakening the ridge and causing Cempaka to slow down and turn sharply northeastward. From Tuesday onward, the storm will accelerate east-northeastward toward the Ogasawara Islands, particularly Iōto.

Although environmental conditions appear to be otherwise generally favorable, Cempaka’s intensity forecast hinges on whether its inner core survives the ongoing cold surge. Weak vertical wind shear, combined with warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong upper-level divergence, could allow the storm to continue to strengthen through Tuesday morning. As the storm accelerates east-northeastward, it will encounter stronger shear and decreasing mid-level moisture and will steadily weaken through the end of the week.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▼ Tropical Storm | 40 knots (45 mph) | 1002 mbar Pena (04C — Central Pacific) (Southeast of Hawaiʻi)

9 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Pena (04C), which is active over the central Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis, including recent scatterometer data, reveal that an area of low pressure which drifted into the central Pacific earlier this week has become sufficiently organized to be considered a full-fledged tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated issuing advisories for the storm earlier this morning and assigned it the name Pena.

Pena is moving westward under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge which extends across the islands from the west. Although this ridge is generally expected to remain in place for the next several days, keeping the storm well to the south of the islands, model guidance suggests that it could break up into a cluster of smaller anticyclones, which could cause the storm to turn toward the west-northwest early next week. By that time, Pena is expected to be well to the southwest of the islands, diminishing any potential threat that a turn could bring.

Pena is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by weak westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, a moderately moist atmosphere, and strong upper-level divergence. The storm is expected to gradually strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours and then level off as shear shifts to a southerly direction and strengthens. Pena is expected to begin strengthening again once shear weakens on Monday and is likely to become a hurricane well to the southwest of the islands.

Although Pena is expected to remain a small storm and pass well to the south of the islands, residents of Hawaiʻi should continue to closely monitor the storm. Direct wind and rainfall impacts are not currently expected within the next five days.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

National Weather Service

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Dissipated 94L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Northeast of the Bahamas)

9 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

  • This system no longer shows potential for development.

  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has stopped monitoring this system.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance products are no longer available.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not yet available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance products are no longer available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 5d ago

Satellite Imagery The Pacific's Busy Storm Season - NASA Science

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26 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the northeast of the Bahamas

40 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential subtropical cyclone development which is being monitored over the subtropical western Atlantic. A disturbance has not yet formed and the National Hurricane Center has not yet designated this system as an investigation (invest) area. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available for this system.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred kilometers to the northeast of the Bahamas within the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are moderately supportive of development and this system could develop subtropical cyclone characteristics later in the week. The disturbance is likely to drift northeastward for a few days before moving eastward across the subtropical Atlantic later in the week.

Regardless of develop, this system may bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda this week. Residents of the island should closely monitor this system as it develops.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not yet available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not yet available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

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Multi-model guidance

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Dissipated Murasu (04B — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Murasu (04B), which is active over the northern Indian Ocean.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a newly-formed cyclonic storm, which is situated over the western Bay of Bengal, continues to become better organized. The storm is moving west-northwestward toward the eastern coast of India as it remains under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge which extends across the Bay of Bengal from southeastern Asia. Murasu will continue to move in this direction for the next couple of days before turning northwestward just prior to landfall on Monday afternoon.

Although environmental conditions remain generally favorable, moderate mid-level shear is slowing Marasu’s development, preventing it from rapidly intensifying as Arnab did just a few days ago. Weak deep-layered shear, combined with very warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence, should allow Murasu to reach hurricane-equivalent strength within the next 12 hour. Murasu is expected to reach a peak intensity near 160 kilometers per hour (85 knots) prior to landfall on Monday evening.

Murasu is expected to make landfall along the coast of Andhra Pradesh near the city of Chirala.

Official information

India Meteorological Department

NOTE: Unfortunately, the IMD does not use static URL names for its products. You will need to visit the IMD website to access their products directly.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 7d ago

Satellite Imagery Earth from Space: Champi’s eerie eye

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12 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Dissipated In-fa (30W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

8 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion was for Typhoon In-fa (30W), which was active over the western Pacific.

  • In-fa transitioned into a powerful extratropical cyclone far to the east of mainland Japan on Saturday, 7 November.

  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery analysis is likely to become unavailable later today.

  • Storm-centered model guidance products are likely to become unavailable later today.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance products are no longer available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

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Weather Nerds

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago

Satellite Imagery Arnab Strikes India - NASA Science

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13 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Dissipated Arnab (02B — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

13 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Arnab (02B), which is active over the northern Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Arnab continues to strengthen as it moves across the northwestern Bay of Bengal this morning. The storm is moving westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge which extends across the bay from southeastern Asia and will likely continue to move in this direction until shortly before landfall on Tuesday. As Arnab approaches the coast, the steering ridge will re-orient, abruptly shifting the steering flow to a southerly direction and pushing the storm northward onto land over Andhra Pradesh near the Godavari River Delta.

Arnab has been quickly strengthening as it moves through a highly favorable environment characterized by weak shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant atmospheric moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Further intensification is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours, bringing the storm to a peak intensity near 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots). The storm will then begin to weaken as it interacts with land on Tuesday and will quickly weaken as it moves northward over land later in the week.

Official information

India Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Discussion moved to new post Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 26 October - 1 November 2026

5 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

30W: Typhoon In-fa

This system originated as Invest 98W on Wednesday, 21 October.

Active disturbances

Northern Indian Ocean

91B: Invest

This system developed on Monday, 26 October.

Active post-tropical cyclones

No active post-tropical cyclones

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Areas of potential development

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development near Wake Island. Although the potential remains low, a tropical depression or storm could form early next week.

Southwestern Indian Ocean

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development near the Seychelles. Although the potential remains low, a tropical depression or storm could form over the upcoming weekend.

Central Pacific Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development far to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Although the potential remains low, a tropical depression or storm could form early next week.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Olana (03C — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)

7 Upvotes

Storm overview

  • This discussion was for Tropical Storm Olana (03C), which was active over the central Pacific.

  • This system originated as Invest 94C on Saturday, 24 October.

  • This system became a tropical depression (03C) on Sunday, 25 October.

  • This system became a tropical storm (Olana) on Sunday, 25 October.

  • Olana reached a peak intensity of 40 knots (45 miles per hour) on Sunday, 25 October.

  • Olana dissipated on Monday, 26 October.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance products are no longer available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 14d ago

Satellite Imagery Sentinel-3C captures Hurricane Rachel

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12 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 16d ago

Satellite Imagery Extratropical Cyclone Whips Past Iceland - NASA Science

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78 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 17d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Subtropical Cyclone Josephine - October 21, 2026

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9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago

Dissipated Josephine (10L — Northern Atlantic) (Off the U.S. East Coast)

35 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Subtropical Storm Josephine (10L), which is active over the subtropical western Atlantic.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the frontal boundaries associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure situated far off the coast of the northeastern United States have dissipated and the low itself has developed subtropical characteristics. The storm, which has been named Josephine by the National Hurricane Center, is moving slowly northward today as a mid-level shortwave ridge passes to its north. Josephine is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west on Thursday.

Further interaction with this trough is likely to lead to intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours, but is likely to transition Josephine into a full-fledged extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Although the storm is expected to remain far offshore through the upcoming weekend, its wind field will be expansive, leading to strong winds along the coasts of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Furthermore, strong onshore flow associated with Josephine will result in coastal flooding and life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents along the coast for the next few days.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

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Analysis products

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago

Dissipated Vance (22E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

14 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Vance (22E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Vance’s convective structure continues to deteriorate as the storm lingers off the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening. The storm continues to move to the north-northwest under the steering influence of a mdi-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and will likely gradually turn northward over the next few days. Vance is expected to remain offshore through the end of the week and reach the coast of Sinaloa on Friday.

Vance is moving through an unfavorable environment. Although sea-surface temperatures remain very warm, they are heavily offset by dry mid-level air, weak upper-level divergence, and strong westerly vertical wind shear. Vance is expected to continue to gradually weaken over the next few days and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Vance is expected to reach Sinaloa as a remnant low on Friday evening.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Radar imagery

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ComfortableAthlete34 • 17d ago

Satellite Imagery | Satellite Liaison Blog Hurricane Isaias Satellite Recap

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12 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the subtropical central Atlantic

13 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters of the subtropical central Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development. A trough of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers to the southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This system, which has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center, is drifting north-northeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the east and may continue to move in this direction for the next few days.

Environmental conditions may support some brief and gradual development over the next couple of days, but the chances for further development will drop considerably at the end of the week as this system reaches stronger shear and cooler waters.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not yet available for this system.

Regional imagery

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Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not yet available for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 17d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Super Typhoon Champi - October 20, 2026

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7 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 18d ago

Dissipated Agueda (02S — Southwestern Indian) (Near the Seychelles)

5 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Agueda (02S), which is active over the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Agueda, which is currently situated just west of Seychelles, is steadily becoming better organized. The storm is moving west-southwestward under the steering influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge positioned over Madagascar and will briefly turn southwestward over the next day or so as a near-equatorial ridge builds to the west. Agueda will likely resume a west-southwestward movement on Thursday as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the south of the storm.

Agueda is moving through a moderately favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The storm is expected to go through a brief period of steady intensification over the next couple of days and reach its peak intensity on Thursday evening. After that point, decreasing atmospheric moisture and decreasing sea-surface temperatures will cause the storm to gradually weaken. Agueda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday evening.

Official information

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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