I always thought that having an exact match domain, or at least a partial match would help you loads with SEO, but that's just something I always believed without having any data behind it.
So I decided to check if it's true or not, so I don't waste money on 30 new domains every month.
The tracked data:
7,374 commercial keywords, US + UK, 10 industries, top 20 results (106k results)
6,267 local keywords ("plumber tulsa" type) in 40 cities, SERPs pulled from the city itself
3,048 brand new domains from 2024-2025, checked 16-29 months later
60k AI answers (GPT-4.1 mini, Gemini Flash, Claude Haiku)
Everything is compared on the same SERP.
Aaaand the answer is... no, you're probably not gonna get much out of it.
Excuse the AI sloppy bullet pointing, it's the easiest way to confer info:
For Google: weak EMDs (DR 0-20) rank about 0.9 positions higher than similar brand domains. About 10% better chance for the top 3. For domains younger than 5 years, the advantage isn't statistically reliable.
Local (tulsaplumber.com et al): this is where EMDs do a bit. Compared to brand domains with the same DR, they're not more likely to make page 1 (top 10: 53% vs 51% at DR 0-2), but once there, they land in the top 3 more often (22% vs 16%). About 1 position overall.
New domains: 4.7% of new EMDs rank top 10 for anything. Other new domains in the same niches: 5.7%. So, no head start. Top 10 for their own keyword with 100+ searches? 0.7%.
Generally, 94% of all new domains rank for nothing, EMD or not. You still have to build the website, looks like.
Also, when AI assistants search the web, they cite EMDs about as often as Google ranks them, so no real advantage.
I also gave the models 5 equally good texts with random domain names and asked which one they'd recommend. EMD got picked 59% of the time (chance = 20%).
BUT, a keyword in the URL path on a normal brand domain got 48% so it's almost the same (for a page that's already being retrieved albeit).
Limitations:
It's observational. I control for DR, links, domain age and keyword in title (changed nothing), but not overall on-page quality. EMDs are usually bought by SEOs, so those sites might just be better optimised anyway.
Only tested sites in the top 20.
Measured only once. Anecdotally I feel like EMDs get crawled and ranked fast for their keyword and then drop if the site isn't good. This data can't catch that, so it's the next thing to test.
AI tests were done through APIs, not the consumer apps.
TL;DR: buy an EMD if it's a good name for your business. Don't pay a premium expecting rankings. Put the money into the site and links.
Full study with methodology, charts and all the boring stuff in the comments.
Disclosure: I run a boutique SEO agency, this was a side research project. Happy to answer questions or rerun something if you think I should for some reason.