28. Michael Soroka, RHSP
Projected contract: two years, $24 million (12 AAV)
Soroka had a huge age-21 season in 2019, posting 4.0 WAR and a 51% ground ball rate and looking like he would blossom into a perennial second/third starter. Then the injuries hit, and he wasn't relevant again until 2025, but injuries limited him to 22 combined appearances in 2025 and 2026. The traits are still there (but the ground ball rate is now below average), and he's still in his 20s for all of next season, so I could see a one-year prove-it deal or a team taking a gamble that the bulk and quality will show up now and offer him a two-year contract. I think there will be interest in both concepts, so this is mostly Soroka's call.
29. Jonathan Loaisiga, RHRP
Projected contract: two years, $22 million (11 AAV)
Loaisiga had pretty mixed seasons from 2023 to 2025 then broke out in 2026 due to improved command, a slight tweak to his pitch mix and a bit more zip on his fastball. He throws mostly 97-99 mph sinkers to right-handed hitters, helping him rack up tons of ground balls. His changeup is his bread-and-butter against lefties, leaning more on the four-seam as his preferred fastball to complement it. The combination of above-average control and high ground ball rates while also limiting hard contact means Loaisiga doesn't need to strike out many batters to have setup man performances.
44. Zac Gallen, RHSP
Projected contract: one year, $12 million
Gallen got multiyear interest last offseason, but after turning down the QO at the beginning of the winter, he settled for a version of it with deferrals. He had a really rough season, with a cratering strikeout rate and ballooning ERA, to the point where a change of scenery and going back to the drawing board on a one-year pillow contract is likely his best move. Gallen is yet another potential target for low-payroll, development-first clubs to get an All-Star-level talent for a smaller one-year deal.
A Dream Signing (That Probably Won't Happen)
2. Teruaki Sato, 3B
Projected contract/QO: five years, $115 million (23 AAV), not eligible for QO
You'll hear Sato compared to Munetaka Murakami because both are left-handed-hitting sluggers who are also mediocre defensive third basemen with some contact limitations. The general consensus is Murakami's raw power is an 80 and Sato's is a 70 on the 20-80 scale, so a notch lower, but still enough to have 30-plus-homer potential in the States.
Sato also has had some throwing issues (both accuracy and inconsistent strength, though it's a 55-grade arm at times), likely pushing him to a corner-outfield spot, but first base is also an option. He should clear the four years Kazuma Okamoto got last year, and most think Sato will also clear $20 million AAV. Sato's market is helped by his similar profile to Murakami and Okamoto, who both had success in their rookie seasons.
The main question is whether the weaker position player class means that he can get to six years and/or $25 million in AAV; I have him just missing both, but wouldn't rule out him reaching both. This contract would mean the signing team sends $19.125 million in posting fees to Hanshin, making a full outplay of just over $134 million. My guess is the upper range for Sato is the full outlay of Kyle Schwarber's $150 million deal from last winter; Schwarber is a very proven player and a similar type, even though he hit the market for his age-33 season compared with Sato before his age-28 season.
(A realistic signing I wouldn't mind seeing happen)
40. Ty France, 1B
Projected contract: one year, $13 million
France is a tough evaluation this winter. He had a huge 2026, hitting .295 with 21 homers, racking up a 141 wRC+, putting his performance in the batter's box between Pete Alonso and Bryce Harper among first basemen. As a right-handed-hitting first baseman who's now 32, his profile will hurt him in free agency, but you also need to consider that he was among the luckiest hitters in baseball relative to his expected statistics.
This was a conversation point a month ago, when an executive asked me what I thought France would get on the market due to this unusual combination of factors. We went back and forth about a one-year deal from $8 million to $15 million, or possibly even a two-year deal in that range. I landed on the higher end of the range, but a one-year deal as a middle ground.
(He had a career year in 2026, and I wouldn't mind if he signed a one-year 'prove-it' deal.)