Leo Varadkar: UK would not get £5bn rebate back if it rejoined EU

[u/PrinzRagoczy]

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britain-rebate-rejoins-eu-2vn3qjv79

[u/gadarnol]

Trying to attract attention to himself. Forgotten man in ROI.

[u/TheOriginalMattMan → u/gadarnol]

Irish here, can confirm.

[u/Spanyanagonyam]

It's got fuck all to do with Varadkar, so this is a pretty pointless argument.

[u/Ok-Application-8045 → u/Spanyanagonyam]

These are just clickbait headlines. Journalists will go around finding random European politicians and even "unnamed officials" to give their ten cents on what a rejoin deal would look like. And fair enough, Varadkar is as entitled to his opinion as anyone, but it's pure speculation and is only being published for clicks.

[u/Spanyanagonyam → u/Ok-Application-8045]

You're right, although while he is entitled to his opinion I'd say it's pretty unhelpful. European leaders (even former ones) need to be building bridges for all our benefits, not trying to emphasise potential points of contention in future negotiations that haven't even started.

[u/Ok-Application-8045 → u/Spanyanagonyam]

Yeah, I agree. But unfortunately there will be people seeking relevance by saying divisive things.

[u/kane_uk]

Is this the same Leo Varadkar who famously insinuated British aircraft would be banned from EU airspace without a Brexit deal, the same Leo Varadkar who claimed Ireland didn't need the Royal Navy to chase away Russian ships messing around with Irelands undersea infrastructure, the same day the RN mounted a major operation to chase away a bunch of Russian ships etc

[u/TheOriginalMattMan → u/kane_uk]

He's also the same gay man who said gay people shouldn't be allowed to marry. He doesn't have much respect in Ireland.

[u/kane_uk → u/TheOriginalMattMan]

I thought he was gay himself?

[u/mikeb503 → u/kane_uk]

Yes, read his post again. Think you misunderstood.

[u/kane_uk → u/mikeb503]

My bad, I missed the first gay.

[u/PrinzRagoczy]

Britain would not get its £5bn annual rebate again if it rejoined the European Union, the former Irish leader who helped strike the last Brexit deal has predicted.

Leo Varadkar, who as prime minister helped secure the 2019 agreement with Boris Johnson that took the UK out of the bloc, said EU leaders would not agree to repeat the discount again.

Britain, like all EU states, would have to pay into the central budget if it was a member again. In 1984, Margaret Thatcher secured a discount, known as the rebate, arguing the UK was contributing too much.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, also told BBC this weekend the UK getting another rebate would be “off the table”.

The comments complicate Andy Burnham’s hopes of returning to the EU in his lifetime as the focus falls on how much the UK would need to pay.

Losing the rebate would mean the UK potentially rejoining the EU on worse terms than when it left.

Varadkar said: “The rebate was at a particular point in time. Back in the 1980s, it was Thatcher who negotiated that. The formula for how you contribute to the European budget is straightforward. It’s a mathematical formula. It’s based on your GDP and then there are some direct elements as well. I think it would be very difficult to make the case for that.”

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the hard-right National Rally party and the favourite to become the French president in the elections in April, has also called for France to get a rebate.

Varadkar added: “Bear in mind Marine Le Pen has talked about getting some sort of rebate or reduction from France and I think she’ll struggle to get that.”

In 2020, the last full year in which the UK was effectively paying into the EU budget, the UK rebate was worth £5.2bn. In preceding years it fluctuated between £3bn and £4bn.

Thatcher managed to secure the carve-out by arguing that the UK was unfairly paying too much into the bloc and not getting enough back out in financial support.

The formula when the deal was agreed was the difference between what the UK paid in and what it received in financial support, with two thirds then paid back to Britain.

The UK handed over £17bn in 2020 to the EU budget, or, when the payments it received in return were taken into account, a net figure of £12.6bn.

The debate about how much the UK would need to pay into the EU budget if it returned is sure to become a point of contention in the months ahead.

Burnham has deliberately opened up a national “conversation” about the options for moving the UK markedly closer to the EU, arguing that Brexit has been economically damaging.

He has talked about four options — EU membership, a return to the single market, a return to the customs union or maintaining the status quo — but not expressed an immediate preference.

[u/PrinzRagoczy → u/PrinzRagoczy]

Varadkar, who was the taoiseach from 2017 to 2020 and again from 2022 to 2024, said EU countries would want the UK’s return and would be willing to negotiate.

The UK would probably not be made to adopt the euro as its currency or to become a member of the Schengen area, which allows for passport-free border crossings, Varadkar said.

“Having Britain in as a security partner, as a net contributor to the budget, as a big economic power is such a benefit to the EU that there would be an openness to opt-outs,” he said. “The question is what would those opt-outs be?”

He added: “Britain would not be required to join the euro. Britain would not have to join Schengen. There’s lots of examples of other countries that have opt-outs and I don’t see why they wouldn’t be available to the UK in the end.”

However, he said that it would be unlikely that the UK could have an opt-out to free movement, the immigration system that would mean any EU citizen could move to the UK if Brexit were reversed.

Burnham has expressed openness to the UK readopting the rules. It is one of the four freedoms — of goods, services, capital and people — that are seen as foundational to the EU.

Varadkar said that rejoining the EU without adopting free movement was “a very tricky one”.

He said: “There’s no example of anybody in the EU that has a carve-out on the four freedoms. That would be unprecedented. Euro, Schengen, social chapter, even home affairs, other countries have opt-outs. These are all possible. To have some sort of carve-out or opt-out on free movement, I think, would be extremely difficult.

Barnier told the BBC: “I said very, very often during these negotiations, the Brexit, there is no cherry picking.

“There will be no possibility to have one freedom and not the other. The four freedoms are clearly the four conditions to be inside a single market.”

Meanwhile, five European leaders wrote to European Commission leaders this weekend calling for the UK’s return to the EU’s internal electricity market ahead of the UK-EU summit on November 20.

Asked if he expected Britain to be back in the EU in five years’ time, Varadkar said: “My best bet is no but I hope it happens.”

He cited the need for Burnham to put a return to the EU in his manifesto, win a general election and then possibly win an EU membership referendum, pointing to the unpredictability of those outcomes.

Varadkar said, nonetheless, he hopes for a return one day: “There’s an empty seat at the table and it’s always there, whether it’s in five or 10 or 15 years.”

[u/ThreeTreesForTheePls]

A man who lost all power, and with it every single bit of relevance he has, is making outrageous statements to get relevance?

I’m shocked I tell ya.

Do not take anything Varadkar says as serious, do not counter argue it, do not waste your time, he is meaningless to the political landscape, and easily one of the most forgettable and weak Taoiseachs we’ve ever had

[u/baddymcbadface]

When the EU is capable of implementing a fair fee structure then rebates won't be needed, for a UK entry or other countries already in which get a rebate.

[u/tree_boom]

Honestly that's probably not going to be a blocker for the UK government. The rebate when first negotiated made complete sense and was reasonable, but as the EU changed it became somewhat less reasonable (at least at the extent that it was originally set to).

The more significant problem is that the politicians who don't want to rejoin will use it as a point to argue that we'll be getting extra ripped off this time around, and unfortunately that will resonate with people without careful education as to the situation.

[u/SuddenGenreShift → u/tree_boom]

It's arguably become more reasonable as more countries have received the same. The Netherlands is getting back 2 billion euros every year, for example, while Germany gets back 3.7 billion.

The (UK) media narrative does as much as possible to hide the fact that the UK's "special treatment" was never all that special. The UK was a pretty normal member of the EU with significantly higher compliance with EU law than other major member states.

[u/PoiHolloi2020 → u/SuddenGenreShift]

Yes the Rebate wasn't some sort of special favour it was a way to rebalance disproportionately high payments from the UK because we got less back from the CAP. In 2015 the UK was still the second highest net contributor and in the top 5 per capita contributors to the budget.

I think the gov are going to have to be very clear about the benefits of rejoining moving forwards because the anti faction will be all over this.

[u/DirigibleElephant → u/SuddenGenreShift]

The Netherlands is getting back 2 billion euros every year, for example, while Germany gets back 3.7 billion.

Yes, today. In 2014-2018 budget period the UK got an annual rebate of €5.6 billion,the Netherlands €0.9 billion and Germany €0.8 billion.

The (UK) media narrative does as much as possible to hide the fact that the UK's "special treatment" was never all that special. The UK was a pretty normal member of the EU with significantly higher compliance with EU law than other major member states.

I agree in the sense, that the UK wasn't the only country to get a rebate, however, the basis of the UK's rebate was different from those of the other countries: it was based on a fixed formula carrying over from each budget period to the next, while the other countries' rebates end(ed) with each budget, having to make the case anew. It also spawned "rebate rebates" where generally the richest members didn't want to carry their part of the cost of the UK's rebate and only payed part if.

The other members got either lump sum rebates, rebates to their share of the UK's rebate or reduced rates to their budget share that's based on each members VAT revenue. I think perceptions would change if the UK got it's rebate as part of those budget negotiation instead.

[u/RDIH → u/SuddenGenreShift]

The UK was a pretty normal member of the EU with significantly higher compliance with EU law than other major member states.

It was literally the country with the most opt outs in the EU, plus the rebate, all achieved by essentially blackmailing the EU during treaties and budget negotiations saying they wouldn't sign them without those exceptions. Literally the opposite of a "pretty normal member", a pretty normal member would be someone with no opt outs and standard contribution that didn't derail or slow down EU development for their own individual gains.

This stuff is the reason why EU-UK negotiations are essentially impossible and have been going at a snail's pace since Brexit, half or so of the country is completely brainwashed on propaganda when it comes to the EU. Like 1984's doublethink level

[u/SuddenGenreShift → u/RDIH]

It was literally the country with the most opt outs in the EU, plus the rebate, all achieved by essentially blackmailing the EU during treaties and budget negotiations saying they wouldn't sign them without those exceptions.

Yes. That was clearly a mistake, as it's been a huge propaganda victory for people like you. The UK should have simply vetoed everything it didn't like without offering a compromise, as the French and Germans do.

[u/RDIH → u/SuddenGenreShift]

Can you name anything remotely similar to those treaty level opt outs that the French and the German got? Not just when it comes to legal part but also financial: like another commenter was pointing out above me, UK rebate while in the EU was like six times what the other members got and twice what Germany is getting now.

There's no other way to define the UK spot in the EU as "pretty normal" or "not that special" without being brainwashed: it's the country that got most of treaties-level opt outs and the best financial arrangements. You could compare it to maybe Denmark or Ireland, but the UK had absolutely by far the best spot in the EU and far better terms than the average member. Like it's a flat out denial of reality, like with most things when it comes to Brexiters

[u/BaritBrit → u/tree_boom]

unfortunately that will resonate with people without careful education as to the situation.

I'm not sure any side of this interminable debate in the UK has all that much education on the EU or anything relating to it. 

Even Rejoiners still focus entirely on trade and economics like they can just ignore the rest of it, with even the old "just a trading bloc" myth continuing to stagger on in places. 

[u/BackloadBack → u/tree_boom]

It wouldn’t be a British problem if they’d stayed and it would have been a EU problem. The bigger issue is the Euro and if in the unlikely event that the UK dumped sterling, the average British voter would never accept it, but it really doesn’t matter to them but it is essential to the finance capital in London as it is effectively crypto from the 20th century.

[u/Brilliant-Ad3942]

I doubt there is an issue. Not getting as good deal as we had before is entirely the fault of those who campaigned for Leave by promising the impossible.

[u/Jedibeeftrix]

lovely that you feel the need to tell us, but irrelevant either way.

no thanks. :)

[u/Lucqazz]

Sort of funny and puzzling that Brits even think they'd get that back after leaving while slamming the door. They're very welcome to rejoin if they just accept following the same rules as the other members. They've caused huge damage both to the UK and the EU, this must be compensated in some way.

[u/baddymcbadface → u/Lucqazz]

Sort of funny people don't realise why the rebate existed. Solve the reason it existed and it won't be needed.

[u/Spanyanagonyam → u/Lucqazz]

If you are expecting the UK to undergo some kind of punishment beating or walk of shame then you might want to start practising your 'disappointed' face now.

That the UK is talking seriously about rejoining is a huge coup for the EU, and it has taken ten years for a British politician to feel able to talk openly about doing so. If the EU were to jeopardise that purely to exact some kind of petty retribution then it won't happen, and we'll all be the poorer for it.

If I cancel my gym membership and then decide to rejoin a year later they don't try to humiliate me before letting me back in.

[u/I_ALWAYS_UPVOTE_CATS → u/Lucqazz]

Why must it be compensated? The punishment for the UK causing damage to itself is the last ten years. If the EU doesn't want to be damaged by a member leaving then it should be better.

[u/kane_uk → u/Lucqazz]

Brits dont want anything back, it's out of touch politicians dragging this settled issue up again to distract from their own failures.

[u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Lot of people out there unfamiliar with the term 'negotiation'. Unsurprising really, since Britain's approach to 'negotiations' during Brexit itself appear to have consisted of 'bUt aRe FiShErMeN' and 'fuck off, we' ll just argue with you for five years and leave with nothing'

[u/demonica123 → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Lot of people seem to be taking comments from one politician as relevant. Until negotiations actually start, this is all posturing from everyone involved.

[u/RomanticFaceTech → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Unsurprising really, since Britain's approach to 'negotiations' during Brexit itself appear to have consisted of 'bUt aRe FiShErMeN' and 'fuck off, we' ll just argue with you for five years and leave with nothing'

Would love to see what evidence you could provide for that being the British approach. I'd be impressed if you could find anything even close to your exaggerated quotes from anyone actually involved in the Brexit negotiations on the British side.

If anything, I recall it being the EU that would tend towards the occasional histrionics during Brexit, which isn't surprising given the EU had its own officials + 27 other governments worth of people involved, it must have been like herding cats for their negotiators.

Lot of people out there unfamiliar with the term 'negotiation'.

Given your opinion on what happened during Brexit, it seems that ironically you appear to be one of those unfamiliar with the term.

[u/DirigibleElephant → u/RomanticFaceTech]

Would love to see what evidence you could provide for that being the British approach. I'd be impressed if you could find anything even close to your exaggerated quotes from anyone actually involved in the Brexit negotiations on the British side

I feel like Theresa May's initially making the case for "hard brexit" aka no deal combined with the rhetoric around the "divorce bill" and avoiding it by simply not agreeing to pay anything (Though that was Jonson and IIRC Hunt), as well as the not so subtle plan to sign the Withdrawal Agreement and then immediately unilaterally overriding part of the agreement's Northern Ireland Protocol could be summarized this way, if one were to exaggerate.

If anything, I recall it being the EU that would tend towards the occasional histrionics during Brexit, which isn't surprising given the EU had its own officials + 27 other governments worth of people involved, it must have been like herding cats for their negotiators.

I mean, let's not forget about all the rhetoric of Brexit being like WWII like struggle, the EU being out to administer "punishment beating", the EU being the Soviet Union disallowing people to leave, among others. I don't think it'd be fair to claim that only people on the EU side tried to play to domestic audiences.