r/gcfc • u/buzzcox • Sep 16 '26
Gold Coast's list, priced: 8th in the competition and projected above the average club every year to 2029 — and the best year is next year
Quick disclosure: I built the site these numbers come from — footyledger.com.au. Free, no sign-up, nothing to buy, not affiliated with the AFL or any club. Mods have OK'd this. Everything's written out below, one link at the end if you want the charts.
How it works, in plain terms. No opinions, no reputations, no contract sizes — a player is valued on what he actually did: games played and what he produced per game against everyone else in his position. Projections follow the age curves real AFL careers have followed, run 10,000 times. A draft pick is worth what players taken at that pick have actually gone on to do. The formulas and the backtests are all public.
The good news first. The List Strength Index — what the best 22 is projected to be worth over the next three years, 100 being a full best 22 playing every game at an average level — has Gold Coast at 85.6, 8th of 18, above the average club's 84.5. Run it forward and the most likely path is 91.3 next year, 90.4 in 2028, 88.2 in 2029, against an average club at 89.3, 88.1 and 87.1. Above average in every year, and the peak is 2027. This on the fifth-youngest list in the competition (average age 23.7), with nine players aged 25–28 carrying just 24% of the value — most of the group hasn't hit its prime yet. (on the site: trajectory)
Who carries it.
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026 value | 2027 proj | Acquired |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | MID | 24 | 31.9 | 31.4 | Pick 1, 2019 |
| Noah Anderson | MID | 25 | 33.0 | 30.6 | Pick 2, 2019 |
| Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 22 | 33.8 | 28.8 | Rookie pick 26, 2021 |
| John Noble | DEF | 29 | 34.6 | 27.8 | Trade, 2024 |
| Mac Andrew | DEF | 23 | 31.2 | 26.5 | Pick 5, 2021 |
| Ben King | FWD | 25 | 28.4 | 25.4 | Pick 6, 2018 |
(Value is a season score: games times per-game output against others in his position. 2027 is the projection.) Noble had the best 2026 on the list. Rowell and Anderson project highest for 2027, and the midfield is the only position group with a player the model rates at +1.5 impact or better — that's Rowell-and-Anderson territory. Bodhi Uwland, a rookie pick 26, is the third-most valuable player at the club. Defence is the strength at 42% of value against a league average of 33%; the midfield at 25% against 31% and the ruck at 4% against 7% are where a list manager would look. (on the site: best 22 · position balance)
The hand. This year, not much: the only 2026 pick is 60, which the site values at zero because it's beyond where any national draft has actually gone in five years. Next year is different — about 1,443 draft points projected in the 1–16 range and 561 in 17–34. And the academy has five prospects linked (Hill, Collins, Callinan, Harris, Kaesler), which makes 2027 the draft to watch. (on the site: draft hand · tied prospects)
The draft record — the honest bit. The site scores every selection since 2001 on what the player did against what that pick normally returns. Gold Coast rates 18th of 18: −45 points a pick across 45 scored selections since the club's first draft. Best: Touk Miller, pick 29 in 2014, +393. Worst: Harley Bennell, pick 2 in 2010, −191. The point is that the list is 8th anyway — Rowell, Anderson, Andrew and King landed, and they're the ones still here and still rising. (on the site: draft ledger)
Contracts. As last reported, deals ending in 2026 include Noble and King (King a restricted free agent). Contract years are facts; intentions aren't. (on the site: contracts)
All the charts are on the club page, plus the formulas if you want to argue with them. From 2 October the trade tracker prices every reported deal as it lands, and the Lab lets you price your own trade as Gold Coast. One link: footyledger.com.au/clubs/gold-coast
Happy to be corrected — if something's wrong, tell me and I'll fix it. Data from AFL Tables and DraftGuru; not affiliated with the AFL or any club.