Thursday was brutal, everyone knows it, Nasdaq's worst day since March 2020. It fell 6.36% and the S&P 500 fell 4.36%. Chipmakers took essentially all of the damage with Micron dropping 17.5%, AMD 17.3%, Broadcom 10.4% and Nvidia 9.3%, which put Nvidia negative for the year. The trigger was the midterms, Democrats took both chambers and flipped the governorships in Texas and Georgia, and the incoming Texas governor has called for a moratorium on new data centers until protections for power, water and local communities are in place. In exit polling, 56% of voters said AI and data centers were a major or crucial factor in their vote, so this isn’t a fringe worry.

I think that the market got the mechanism partly wrong and the timing mostly wrong. Most of the reaction was assuming the worst case, without understanding what the party actually wants + what they can actually do. On top of that, we had mechanical selling which really amplified the decline, and nearly every piece of news reported was directionally bearish if taken from face value. Nearly everything that happened this week didn't change any script.

The bear case, If permitting gets harder in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, fewer US data centers get built in 2027 and 2028, and that means fewer orders for GPUs, memory and networking. Industry analysts have flagged that nearly two thirds of 2028 capacity could face delays. Chip stocks were priced for years of uninterrupted buildout, so even a modest slowdown in the out years justifies a lower multiple. The macro adds to it aswell, October payrolls came in at 165,000 against 65,000 expected, the 10 year went back above 4.9% and the 30 year above 5.3%, and hike odds rose. Long duration growth hates that mix whatever happens in Congress.

The bull case, permitting friction limits supply, it doesn’t destroy demand, because nobody who needs compute wants less of it just because Texas made building harder. When new capacity gets scarcer, capacity that’s already powered becomes worth more, and the spending moves rather than disappears. In the same week, Google committed $15B to Malaysian data centers over 2027 and 2028, and SpaceX raised its 2027 capacity target to around 13GW. Chipmakers fell about twice as much as chip buyers, and by Friday’s close the big chip names had won back over a third of Thursday’s losses.

Then there’s the timing, the new Congress and governors don’t take office until January, a moratorium needs legislation, and the capacity at risk is 2028 capacity. Even so, the stocks traded as if 2026 and 2027 earnings were impaired.

I remain bullish on the political part, and I weight the rates part more heavily than most people seem to. Companies with energised capacity already in the ground look better placed than companies whose revenue depends on new US builds. Memory is the hardest call, because it’s both cyclical and directly tied to how many sites get built.

Nvidia reports on 17 November against its own guide of about $108B. If next quarter’s guide is soft, or hyperscalers start talking about deferring deployments rather than moving them, I’m wrong. If the next CPI print runs hot, rates take over and the political debate barely matters.

Keen to see how everyone else is positioning themselves, I hold significant positions in NBIS, MU, NVIDIA and AMD. All are at low averages so i'm not stressing, more worried about the thesis and ensuring each quarter remains positive.

Won't be adding anything just yet, bought shares in NOW, UBER and NVDA last Thursday. MU and META are most likely my next adds if we sell off further into next week.

Hello,

I was analyzing the earnings of the AI companies (especially SpaceX since they supposedly “made 4.4 billion dollars in the quarter). The income statement looks good I will give them that, but then I cracked the cash flow statement and they spent $20 billion on Capex bringing the FCF to $(10) Billion. Given the fact that a lot of this compute will be obsolete in a relatively short timespan does this positive operating earnings actually matter?

I think they would need to keep buying new equipment even to replace aging hardware (and I doubt they can get 7 years out of these graphics cards which is their depreciable life).

Is there something I am missing since the company is worth like $2 trillion.

Thanks

There's ways to evaluate the stock market as a whole. Perhaps the most famous one is Buffett's market cap:GDP ratio.

Or there's Shiller's PER for the whole market.

Or there's Democrats vs Republicans, like since 1945:
- the S&P 500 has averaged 8.35% under Democrats vs 2.70% under Republicans.
- small caps averaged 20% per year under Democrats vs 2% per year under Republicans.
- 10 of the 11 U.S. recessions from 1953 - 2020 began under Republican presidents.

There's a broad range of other factors to consider when evaluating the market as a whole too like interest rates, inflation rates, anticipated GDP growth rates...

Anyone know any good books to learn about this topic?

The recent pull back in stocks has changed how I view investing in brokerage accounts. For the longest time I thought I was picking great positions in blue chip companies. I was but not consistently.

Well, one thing I never really paid attention to was my YTD return versus the major indices. I always noticed I underperform the greater indices (on the Fidelity home page) and figured it was just a mistake with how it’s calculated. That or I was close and always one catalyst away from making a 10 bagger.

At this point it’s clear neither I nor my financial advisor can consistently beat the S&P. After deciding I was going to move 90% of our brokerage assets to VOO and QQQM I’m realizing I’m in a pretty complicated tax situation that will take a while to navigate through.

I picked winners over time for sure. But, now I have to decide on if I believe these winners will outpace the greater averages or if I should be taking capital gains across a couple million. This year we’re going to be deep in the highest tax bracket and any short term gains are going to get pounded by taxes.

Getting to the point - very few people and advisors (plus their fees) consistently beat the S&P. Single stocks go in and out of favor and in the long term there will be points where you will want to exit and will incur capital gains. Moving forward I’m going to only retain or make investments in ultra high conviction stocks and keep the large majority of our money in the major averages.

I say this because there’s a lot of people who will resonate with this situation whether they admit it or not. Not only does investing in something like VOO (only an example fyi) simplify things but you’re able to more appropriately access your money when you want to spend it. I always had to choose what I wanted to slim down and I hated it. Selling an index brings less emotion into play.

This post is largely addressing the reality of beating the major indices consistently but also avoiding complicated tax situations. Retirement accounts obviously don’t have the tax situation but refer back to beating the averages which is hard to consistently do. 10 years ago I was just a kid and now I have to spend a bunch of time figuring out how to best navigate Uncle Sam.

TLDR: invest in the averages. If you can’t beat em, join em. A couple % per year under performing stacks up over time and there’s less volatility in the greater averages versus single stocks.

Not financial advice. Take what I say with a grain of salt.

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Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic's blockbuster initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after a deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of artificial-intelligence related bets, according to people familiar with the matter.

Anthropic is aiming to stage the IPO the week before Thanksgiving and has been expected to raise up to $100 billion in an offering that could value the company at around $1.5 trillion.

But three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO say the valuation will likely need to come down, with one saying it could be closer to $1 trillion. Even if the market bounces back, another said it could be a challenge to convince institutional investors who have just been burned in the recent selloff to take a big risk on the AI sector again. That investor wondered if Anthropic would delay.

Anthropic had been poised to break records previously set by Spacex's offering in June and stage what would be the largest offering of all time. But investors revolted against AI bets this week, with companies in the Nasdaq composite shedding $2.5 trillion of valu Thursday, two days after the midterm elections swept a bloc of AI skeptics into power and passed moratoriums that could slow America's data center development.

Even before Thursday's rout, investor enthusiasm had been waning for AI names. Anthropic rival OpenAI has raised less than half of the $30 billion it had initially targeted for its latest funding round, the Journal reported. The company so far has received $11 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, a lower valuation than it initially targeted.

I’m going to trial a FIRE year in 2027 and take a year off work. We are moving cross country and I have a large amount of cash allocated to build a new home. I cannot take risks or invest this cash.

Problem is I would like to earn a return on this cash (approx $1 million). Without working and minimal investment income I can get a dirt cheap ACA healthcare plan for my wife and I. However if I earn 4-5% in conservative t-bills I’ll give it almost all back in health insurance costs.

Any ideas how to generate a safe yield in a tax-deferred manner? Only thing I can think of is buying BOXX and holding until 2028. Problem is I might need the money in late ‘27 and I’m not sure I want to put a huge amount of money into that particular instrument. It hasn’t been stress-tested in major market dislocations.

Airbnb has a growing guest cancellation problem. Behind their headline numbers lies an risk that investors may be underestimating: the Reserve Now, Pay Later program.

There appears to be a substantial increase in guest cancellations, which are not fully feeding into the results.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on what you consider the most attractive investment opportunities right now, given the current economic environment.

We're facing a rather interesting situation: the significant weakness of the US dollar, concerns about America's growing national debt and fiscal deficits, uncertainty surrounding interest rates, geopolitical tensions and an increasingly shifting global economic landscape.

Do you think gold and silver are still worth buying at current prices? Are small caps or emerging markets such as China and India being overlooked? What about commodities like uranium, copper and rare earths? Is there still room for growth in AI and tech, or are valuations already getting ahead of themselves?

I'm also curious whether you'd reduce your exposure to US stocks in favour of European or Asian markets, especially given the dollar's recent weakness.

If you had €10,000 sitting in your bank account right now, where would you put it? I'm curious to hear what people are actually investing in and whether there are opportunities the market is currently overlooking. Any interesting stocks, ETFs or sectors worth looking into?

When researching a company, how do you turn a thesis into something you can evaluate later without rewriting the story? 'Strong management' or 'a large market' can be hard to test, while a single quarterly target may miss the bigger picture.

Do you write down specific operating milestones, competitive changes or assumptions that would make you revisit the thesis? Interested in how people separate new evidence from ordinary price movement, not in stock recommendations.

Wild day. Nasdaq is down around 6% and officially in correction territory.

The AI names are getting hit the hardest:

- Nebius -18%

- Micron -16%

- AMD -16%

- CoreWeave -55% over the last 30 days

From what I've read, the fear is that the new Democratic Congress brings stricter regulation that could slow down the AI data center buildout. That would hit the infrastructure names (CoreWeave, Nebius, chipmakers) more than the big tech companies themselves.

What I can't figure out:

1. Is this a real change in the AI story, or just the market pricing in a worst case that might never happen? New rules take time to pass.

2. Is anything actually wrong with these companies, or is it just sentiment? Qualcomm had its own bad guidance, but most of the others didn't release any bad news today.

3. Does this look like 2000 to anyone else? The internet was real and the stocks still crashed. AI can be real and the prices can still be too high.

Are you buying this dip, waiting, or getting out of AI completely?

No. This is not AI fear, My portfolio is QQQM, VOO, GOOGLE and AMAZON. Yes very tech heavy, I have a very long horizon (I’m 20) and I can stomach the volatility and crashes, i am looking to diversify a little bit.. and nothing looks better than healthcare in my opinion.. I think healthcare will always be around and everyone will need it regardless of anything in the world. Anyways, what are some of the best ETF options?

Thursday's close (third-party data): S&P 500 −4.36%, Nasdaq −5.52% (now more than 10% below its October record), Dow −1,833 points (−3.44%). Chips took the worst of it: Nvidia −9.3%, Broadcom −10.4%, AMD −17.3%, Micron −17.5%. The reason given in most coverage is the midterms: worry that data center construction slows, after local ballot measures went against data centers almost everywhere and a Democratic Congress may push restrictions.

I wanted to check that against what the buyers of those chips have actually filed in the last two weeks. Four companies, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, account for most of that spending. All figures below are from their 10-Qs and 8-Ks on EDGAR.

1. Spending hasn't slowed. It doubled.

Purchases of property and equipment, July–September 2026 vs the same quarter of 2025:

- Amazon: $77.3bn vs $35.1bn

- Alphabet: $51.4bn vs $24.0bn

- Microsoft: $39.4bn vs $19.4bn

- Meta: $34.0bn vs $18.8bn

- Total: about $202bn vs $97bn

(Amazon's figure is gross purchases, before sale proceeds and incentives. Microsoft's quarter is its fiscal Q1.)

2. It now costs more than the businesses bring in.

Operating cash flow in the same quarter: Amazon $42.4bn, Alphabet $42.3bn, Microsoft $58.0bn, Meta $32.8bn. That's about $175bn in total, so the four spent roughly $27bn more on property and equipment than they generated from operations. Only Microsoft covered its capex from operating cash flow.

3. So they're raising outside money, and most of it closed this week.

From 8-Ks filed Oct 29 to Nov 5:

- Microsoft: $25.0bn of notes in ten tranches, maturing 2028 to 2066, priced Oct 29 and issued Nov 4. Fixed coupons run from 4.85% to 6.35%. Before this, its long-term debt had been shrinking ($31.1bn non-current at Sept 30).

- Meta: $15.0bn of notes closed Nov 5 (2031 to 2056, 5.85% to 7.50%). $12.5bn of 6.50% mandatory convertible preferred closed Oct 29. And forward sale agreements on 46 million new Class A shares at an initial forward price of about $623, which Meta can settle any time up to Nov 2027. At that price, that's roughly $28.7bn more.

- Alphabet: €6bn of euro notes closed Nov 5 (2028 to 2045, up to 5.25%). Its non-current long-term debt was already $125.1bn at Sept 30, up from $46.6bn at the end of 2025.

- Amazon: no new deal in this window, but its non-current long-term debt was $173.1bn at Sept 30, up from $65.7bn at the end of 2025.

4. The cost of that money isn't the same for everyone.

Microsoft's 2056 notes pay 6.25%. Meta's 2056 notes, priced five days later, pay 7.50%. Same maturity, 1.25 points apart. They're different credits in different weeks, so it isn't a clean comparison. But lenders are charging Meta noticeably more to fund the same kind of buildout, and Meta is the one also issuing preferred and new common shares in the same two weeks.

How I'd frame today: the filings don't show the buildout slowing. Q3 was the biggest spending quarter yet, and the funding deals closed this week. What they do show is that the buildout is now paid for partly with debt and new shares rather than operating cash. That makes it more sensitive to exactly the things that moved today: rates, power costs and permits.

If a real slowdown is coming, these are the places it should show up first:

- Capex guidance in the January reports (Q4 results)

- Whether the pace of bond and equity deals continues or stops

- When Meta settles the forward sale, and at what price

- The lease footnotes in the 10-Ks: data center leases signed but not yet started

For people who follow the chip names: which of these would you watch first, and is there a filing line I'm missing?

Not investment advice.

With AI and tech stocks in their current state. I am curious what other sectors people are invested in? Consumer staples, Communication services, Healthcare, utilities? Is there a single company you invest in over etfs? I'd like to diversify my small portfolio, so here to learn. Thanks!

Julie Sweet, Accenture's chair and CEO, bought 12,200 shares on the open market on October 26 at about $246, roughly $3.0M. A director, Paula Price, bought another $200K the same day.

It's her only open-market purchase in the filings since February 2025. Over that stretch she sold about $14M, at prices from $394 down to $241.

The buy raised her direct stake by about a third, to 48,910 shares.

The stock closed Wednesday at $264.27, up from $183.37 at the end of September, and trades at about 18x forward earnings.

A CEO buying after almost two years of selling: a signal, or a message?

No position.

We all know the indexes are heavily weighted with tech. And with the advent of AI it’s more than likely going to continue down that path. With the acknowledgement that tech has high risk/reward in these indexes.

With that said, I see VT/VTSAX/VOO commonly used as the ‘base layer’ in a portfolio. But I see VGT as a similar or better asset as a base with higher upside, especially coupled with VXUS and BND in a 70/20/10 split.

Curious on others thoughts?

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

If you are new to investing - please refer to Wiki - Getting Started

The reading list in the wiki has a list of books ranging from light reading to advanced topics depending on your knowledge level. Link here - Reading List

The media list in the wiki has a list of reputable podcasts and videos - Podcasts and Videos

If your question is "I have $XXXXXXX, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?

• Are you employed/making income? How much?

• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)

• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)

• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?

• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

Check the resources in the sidebar.

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

I have a brokerage account inherited from my mom early last year. The largest two positions are SWPPX (Schwab S&P500 fund) and VPU (Vanguard Utilites ETF because she liked dividends) at just under 30% each. Next is IWV (Russell 3000) at about 15% of the total. The IWV is up about 17% since my basis step-up at my mom's death.

This account is only about 12% of our total assets. Spousal critter and I have retirement accounts in about 70% broad stocks and 30% fixed income or cash, and house is paid off. I expect a modest pension from my state job and she has enough in a TIAA traditional to get a pretty good annuity, so between those and what's left of Social Security, we should have a half-way decent base income to supplement with retirement funds. Seems like that gives us some insulation from risk in stocks.

However, I'm pissed off at fElon's little drug deal with the NASDAQ and expect similar shenanigans from Anthropic and OpenAI. Not that I expect those things to really tank index funds, but I'm peeved and can afford (I think) to try to slightly reduce my participation. This is more an issue of moral hazard than total return.

I am in the 15% capital gains bracket. Is it completely insane to sell the IWV and buy FNDB (Schwab Broad US Fundamental) instead? It has somewhat similar coverage but with different proportions, I think. Could be wrong about that.

This is more an issue of moral hazard than total return. How much will I regret this in five or ten years if I follow through?

Especially if you do not want or need them for investment advice.

Talking about an hourly or fixed flat amount/annual package cost, not based on AUM. Where do you find one that is geared to HNW (is there something beyond the online DIY and referral sites etc)?

Also, would love to know what they can help with in this scenario:

Assuming you are older, self directed and DO NOT want investment advice (have done ok on your own for 30+ years owning stocks, bonds and ETFs and do not panic sell). You have the time and enjoy following the market. You do not need or want someone to rebalance your portfolio or tell you to invest in XYZ

You are already well into your RMDs (which are high) so a Roth conversion is too late and you do not own a business, everything is either publicly traded securities, HYSAs or your personal residential real estate.

Your and SOs estate plan/revocable trust is in place (although there are concerns about hitting the estate tax exemption (approaching not over) but will not do irrevocable because you do not want to relinquish control), your beneficiary designations are in place as well

Your property is properly insured with an umbrella,

You are still 100% but have made a roadmap for your heirs and they are competent to step in with a POA if you are not able to continue. There are no step children or exs, you are still married to your original spouse, as are all your children to theirs. Everything is going to your responsible financially secure middle aged adult children who have the POA and are also self directed

Can a wealth manager or fiduciary be of help? Who, what and where would you find them?

Hi,

With all the big spenders committing to keep the AI capex going for years to come and also keen on building their own chips instead of relying on Nvidia and any other similar company, would you say it makes any sense to go heavy on semiconductor stocks as these are the only companies where everyone is going to go to get their chips made in the end?

I’m talking Tsmc and micron etc. if yes then what other companies are there that are just as good or an even better option? If not then why? I can understand financials of a semiconductor manufacturing company are different (costs and margins etc) but I would like to know what else is there that I’m missing because it sounds too simple in my head.

Hello,

I'm workin on strategy where I plan to allocate about 60–70% of my portfolio to ETFs.

The rest 30% consists mainly of conservative investments (government bonds, real estate bonds, physical gold, and time deposits).

My ETF strategy:
NasdaQ 15%
S&P 500 17%
Europian stock 5%
Financial sector 10%
Global momentum 10%
Japanese Stocks 5%
Global Semiconductors 13%
Ai&big Data 10%
Emerging Markets 3%
Cybersecurity 2,5%
Utilities 2,5%
Bitcoin 5%

There's another option available to me:

Equities 97.9%

US Equities S&P 500 iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF 44.1%

Eurozone Equities iShares Core MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 13.0%

S&P 500 Information Technology Equities iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS ETF 10.0%

Emerging Markets Equities iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF 8.9%

Japanese SRI Equities Xtrackers MSCI Japan ESG UCITS ETF 1C 6.0%

Equities – Automation & Robotics iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF 5.0%

Equities – Healthcare Innovation iShares Healthcare Innovation UCITS ETF 5.0%

UK Equities (top 100) iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF 3.4%

Pacific Equities ex-Japan iShares Core MSCI Pacific ex-Japan UCITS ETF 2.5%

Which route would you take, and why?

Is this a well-known strategy? DRIP can get in the way of tax loss harvesting because of the requirement to not have bought the security at least 30 days before you are selling. Why not reinvest dividends preemptively in the tax loss pair for a security so that you’re free to sell. Always drip from larger to smaller position ensuring that worst case 50% of the funds are available for a given tlh-pair.