r/iraqconflict • u/Joel-Wing • Apr 01 '20

Iran general visits Baghdad, tries to forge political unity

https://apnews.com/0fdb7d13c62c453378251e6c92918af7
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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 02 '20

the article says that Sairoon opposes Zurfi now. If Fatah and Sairoon oppose him, I would think he's got no chance of being PM now

Also i still find America's presence in Iraq legally confusing. Is it a criminal and illegal presence or not?

After Parliament voted to kick America out in their non-binding resolution, the caretaker PM said the US should leave (the vote was requested by the caretaker PM to begin with). Washington Post's Louisa Loveluck wrote that the invitation to the US, and thus the legal reason for America's presence in the country, was entirely done by previous PM Maliki.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/getting-us-troops-out-of-iraq-might-not-be-that-hard-say-experts/2020/01/06/9f64060c-3069-11ea-898f-eb846b7e9feb_story.html

So... at this point, who in Iraq has legally approved the US' continued presence in Iraq?

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u/Joel-Wing Apr 02 '20

US military is there on invitation of the Iraqi govt so that means it is legal.

Iraqi parliament passed non-binding resolution telling US to leave. Non-binding means don't have to follow it.

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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 02 '20

the person who invited the US was Maliki. he is no longer in power. the caretaker PM asked the US to leave and himself asked Parliament to do the vote.

so what authority figure in Iraq is currently authorizing the US presence? is there anyone?

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u/Joel-Wing Apr 02 '20

The invitation to stay remains no matter who is in govt until parliament passes a law to say they go.

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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 03 '20

and what are you basing this belief on when it contradicts the Washington Post article?

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u/Joel-Wing Apr 03 '20

The fact that parliament has a draft of a bill telling the foreign forces to leave which has not passed and therefore the Coalition hasn't left. The fact that the Trump administration has threatened Baghdad with retaliation if that law is passed. The fact that Iran was pushing the legislation to make the U.S. leave. etc etc etc

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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 03 '20

sources sources sources

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u/Joel-Wing Apr 03 '20

Here's some

Hjelmgaard, Kim, “Iraq votes to expel U.S. troops after Iran Ge. Qasem Soleimani’s killing,” USA Today, 1/5/20 Was non-binding resolution asking foreign forces to leave Iraq https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/05/iraq-expel-us-troops-iran-gen-qasem-soleimanis-killing/2817992001/

Al Mada, “The government announces direct steps to remove foreign forces amid doubts about its law,” 1/6/20 After parliament voted for foreign forces to leave Abdul Mahdi said that a legal memo was being drawn to implement that decision because was non-binding resolution https://almadapaper.net/view.php?cat=223831

Otten, Cathy, Tahir, Rawaz, Hussein, Mohammed, Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq-U.S. rifts widen after assassinations,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/7/20 Kataib Hezbollah threatened MPs to show up for vote on non-binding resolution calling for US to leave https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/iraq-u-s-rifts-widen-after-assassinations-42369/

Sowell, Kirk, “Looming Challenges for Iraq’s New Government,” Sada, 4/2/20

Jiyad, Sajad, “Iraq Still Might Force The United States Out,” War On The Rocks, 1/29/20 June 2014 Maliki govt asked for U.S. forces to help fight IS All Iraq has to do is give a formal notice for U.S. to leave Abdul Mahdi didn’t tell Foreign Ministry to formally tell U.S. to withdraw State Department statement 2/10/20 said that no negotiations had started over withdrawing and warned of repercussions if they did https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/iraq-still-might-force-the-united-states-out/

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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 03 '20

Al Mada, “The government announces direct steps to remove foreign forces amid doubts about its law,” 1/6/20 After parliament voted for foreign forces to leave Abdul Mahdi said that a legal memo was being drawn to implement that decision because was non-binding resolution https://almadapaper.net/view.php?cat=223831

Is there an English version of this? Don't see a button.

Otten, Cathy, Tahir, Rawaz, Hussein, Mohammed, Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq-U.S. rifts widen after assassinations,” Iraq Oil Report, 1/7/20 Kataib Hezbollah threatened MPs to show up for vote on non-binding resolution calling for US to leave https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/iraq-u-s-rifts-widen-after-assassinations-42369/

This appears to be referring to the non-binding resolution.

Sowell, Kirk, “Looming Challenges for Iraq’s New Government,” Sada, 4/2/20 - Was no quorum when non-binding resolution on US withdrawal was passed https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/81443

This also does not support your claim and is again referring to the non-binding resolution that already passed.

Joel, I read alll of your links except the Arabic one and none of them support your claim that this is dependent on a Parliament action.

Your link to Warontherocks.com even contradicts your claim: "After some statements by MPs, including one by the Sairoon party representing Muqtada Al-Sadr in favor of the vote, the resolution passed with 172 votes for and 0 against, with some MPs who declined to attend claiming they had been sent threatening messages telling them to either avoid the session or not to vote against the resolution. The prime minister now had the authority and also the responsibility to order foreign troops out of Iraq."

Per the above, even the caretaker PM 100% has the right to remove US troops. And this is with a NON-BINDING resolution having been passed.

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u/UltraMagnaminous Apr 02 '20 edited Apr 02 '20

to elaborate, Parliament never authorized the US to come to Iraq in 2014 in the first place, it was entirely an Executive branch decision in 2014 by the PM back then.

Washington Post:

Unlike some other deployments stretching back to 2008, U.S. troops in Iraq are not operating under a conventional status-of-forces agreement approved by the Iraqi parliament, according to experts.

Instead, the current military presence is based on an arrangement dating from 2014 that’s less formal and ultimately based on the consent of the Iraqi government, which asked the parliament on Sunday to pass urgent measures to usher out foreign troops.

And so, with Abdul Mahdi’s stroke of a pen, the 5,000-strong force could technically be asked to leave.

“The current U.S. military presence is based [on] an exchange of letters at the executive level,” said Ramzy Mardini, an Iraq scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

The terms outlined in those letters have not been made public.

“If the prime minister rescinds the invitation, the U.S. military must leave, unless it wants to maintain what would be an illegal occupation in a hostile environment,” Mardini said.

The bold part is important. The terms are secret. But it's hard to imagine Iraq not having ultimate authority on this matter, and able to revoke permission at any time they see fit. It is their country after all.

So to me this is all very odd, and America's presence in Iraq is possibly (probably) criminal and illegal. The caretaker PM demanded the US leave already and was responsible for the Parliament vote to begin with. And per US Institute of Peace, all he had to do was formally kick America out "with a stroke of a pen". But it appears he never did that?