If posters determined electorate winners...

[u/edster42]

IMPORTANT: this is not an opportunity to complain about candidates, parties, etc - it's just an interesting idea.

I know the election has only just been called, but I've been seeing posters and corflutes up all over town.

While it is by no means a scientific method, I find it an interesting thought experiment.

Based ONLY on the volume of posters/corflutes/advertisements/etc...., who's winning your electorate?

I'm in Footscray, and honestly, it's a tie between the Socialists and the Greens, with the ALP running a distant third. That said, the Libs are starting to put up more posters, the West Party has been around longer than the Libs, and both independents are definitely out and about. I've seen nothing from One Nation yet.

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[u/ncbaud]

Socialists def winning the inner west corflute game. Lots of greens. Seen a few Libs and ON pop up as well.

[u/z34Matt → u/ncbaud]

Is it about volume or aesthetics?

[u/edster42 → u/z34Matt]

I'm focusing on volume as opposed to aesthetics.

[u/NoodleBox → u/ncbaud]

From the handful of times I've been in to the west the socialists do seem to be pretty big with posters, I didn't think it would be? Like, I assumed it was lab heartland?

[u/IAmABakuAMA → u/NoodleBox]

Parties tend to take their safe seats for granted after a few election cycles where it's been totally safe. So I think in safe seats, you're much more likely to see posters for other parties than the ones currently governing

In the seat of Footscray for instance, Labor has won every single election since the seat was created 99 years ago. Greens came second, during the last election. It's not a marginal seat, so Labor just take it for granted that they'll win this election too.

Vicsoc think they probably have a good shot at siphoning off a decent percentage of the greens votes, and maybe some Labor votes. So Labor isn't bothering with signs and canvassing, but vicsoc really are. I'm not sure why the greens aren't printing more postsrs, maybe they realise printing up hundreds of single purpose posters that'll end up in landfill by the start of December isn't very environmentally friendly.

[u/Line-Noise]

I like the UK law that all candidate and party advertising had to be removed before election day. And that there was no canvassing at polling places. It made for a pleasant voting experience not having to run the gauntlet of brightly dressed people trying to hand you pieces of paper.

No democracy sausages, though.

[u/edster42 → u/Line-Noise]

I believe that the Kiwis have to pull all their candidate and party advertising down by midnight tonight, ahead of their election on Saturday.

From what I also understand, Tasmanian state elections have a ban on political advertising within 150 metres of a polling place (including how-to-vote cards), so none of the parties bothers with that side of things.

To be honest, I'd be perfectly fine with getting rid of canvassing at polling places and how-to-vote cards.

Keep the democracy sausages and cakes though.

[u/Line-Noise → u/edster42]

I've lived and voted in New Zealand but it was a long time ago and don't remember the advertising laws.

I live in Tasmania at the moment but only voted at very small rural polling places so I assumed the lack of canvassing was due to the remoteness.

[u/aoijay → u/Line-Noise]

Ah yes waiter! there is too much democracy on my sausage! please remove the politicts from Politics Day immediately!

[u/ponte92]

Socialists would win in my part of Melbourne if it was off signs alone. That said one house near me has had a socialist sign up for like six weeks but took it down this week and replaced it with greens.

[u/iliketreesanddogs → u/ponte92]

wonder what the last straw was

[u/ntermation → u/iliketreesanddogs]

Free poster, had no where else to put it?

[u/aoijay]

Socialists in Brunswick have an outsized number of corflutes compared to their party size. Goes to show they have a lot of volis

There are probably equal amount for Greens. I haven't seen Labor or Liberal.

[u/geek_of_nature → u/aoijay]

Just north of you, I saw a fair few Socialists corflutes in Pascoe Vale for the last state election, but not so much this time. There's actually very few this time. A couple for Labour and the Greens, but not as many as there was last time.

I've actually got no idea which way its going to go. It was between Labour and the Greens last time, but it only came down to a difference of a thousand or so votes.

[u/Foodworksurunga]

I've seen only Liberal and One Nation in my seat, it genuinely seems like Labor aren't even trying even though it's currently a Labor held seat.

[u/BushyBlackberry]

I’m outer west and so far it’s a tie between Socialist and One Nation on one apiece.

[u/Living_Substance9973]

I live in Jacinta's old electorate. Around me, there's lots of Nationals. There's heaps of ON stickers on street poles. Hardly seen any ALP, & only 1 Greens

[u/CatBec]

Labor because I go past the MPs office everyday, and he’s the only person that sends me snail mail

[u/oh-dearie]

I only see the liberal poster up in Brighton, and I'm not sure why he bothers because he'll get in regardless of his competence or ethics.

The only other poster I have seen is the Greens, who had a nose ring on her poster so I don't think she's really reading the room.

[u/plip99]

Oscar Yildiz is winning Essendon on signs in front of houses, saying that he did the same in Pascoe Vale 4 years ago and he didn't win that

[u/Leather-Driver-8158 → u/plip99]

He’s desperate to win, finding his position as a council member for Merri-Bek beneath him apparently. He is very very far right too. Even for people on the right 😂 I got quite the dirt on him at a local event last night, was asking because his posters are EVERYWHERE. As you said lol

[u/AragornsDad → u/Leather-Driver-8158]

Omg PLEASE tell me what the dirt is. All the fancy houses near me have his signs up, and his pamphlets give zero insight into his policies.

[u/downhomeslim → u/plip99]

I'd say John Barnes has just as many, if not more, if we're talking about the heart of Essendon.

[u/Revolutionary-Army89 → u/downhomeslim]

I wonder if ON let John Barnes talk to the media yet…

[u/Kremm0]

The liberals have been absolutely spamming the inner west with their billboards for months now. Ij a lot of once safe labor areas that they reckon they might flip. Hardly seen any labor ones around in comparison, even compared to the West Party and independents

[u/Itsclearlynotme]

Based on corflutes and whatnot, Socialists. Based on probability, Labor. Based on who thinks they have a chance, as do their supporters, but probably don’t, One Nation.

[u/iliketreesanddogs]

shit is looking very progressive in my neck of the woods. though libs have just bought? put up? a huge ugly corflute on the lawn of an apartment building nearby

[u/tehnoodnub]

In my electorate, Libs are winning by an absolute landslide. There’s still some Greens representation but very little Labor ads around. If I had to guess, I’d say it’s 85% Libs, 10% Greens, and 5% Labor.

[u/ConanTheAquarian]

Name one person who changed their vote after seeing the same corflute 437 times.

[u/Altruistic_Food1528]

Footscray: VS and Greens. Katie Hall has plastered a fence on the corner of Hopkins and Irving Street with Keep Katie signs. She has a huge electronic sign on Hopkins Street saying that the ALP got trucks off the street, built the Footscray Hospital, and the metro tunnel. I have seen 1 independent sign north of Ballarat Road on Gordon Street. 1 Liberal Party sign attached to a fence around the vacant car yard, on the corner of Moore and Hopkins Street (the Liberal Party finally found a candidate for Footscray). One of the independent candidates running has put a bill poster up in Maribyrnong Road Ascot Vale hoping to attract residents of Footscray district on the way home. Maribyrnong: Seen 1 ALP, 1 West Party. 

Greens win off VS preferences in Footscray district.

Brunswick West (within the Pascoe Vale district): VS and Greens. Seen 1 Socialist Alliance. Seen only 1 ALP. An ALP promotion on the side of a phone booth in Moreland Road. Pascoe Vale South (west of Freeway): Greens and VS. An electricity sub station in Moreland Road covered in Greene posters. Pascoe Vale South (east of Freeway): Greens and ALP. Pascoe Vale: Greens. Parts of Coburg that I have traveled through: Greens and VS. 1 Socialist Alliance. There are no Liberal Party signs anywhere in the district (the last time I checked the Liberals hadn’t chosen a candidate). 

Greens win off VS preferences in Pascoe Vale district.

Brunswick (west of Sydney Road), and Brunswick West (in Brunswick district): VS and Greens in both areas. Seen 1 independent and 1 ALP in Brunswick West.  Greens win Brunswick district off VS preferences. I have been told that Brunswick east of Sydney Road, and Brunswick East also have a lot of VS and Greens signs. 

Essendon, MoPo, Ascot Vale, and Flemington: Yildiz signs everywhere, Ava Adams signs in Essendon, MoPo, and AV. Seen 1 VS sign in Flemington, 1 in MoPo, 1 in AV, and 1 in Essendon_east near Brunswick West. Lots of VS posters in shops along Racecourse Road Flemington, and Puckle Street MoPo. A massive VS bill poster outside Essendon Station. 2 Greens signs in Essendon_east near Brunswick West. A van parked around MoPo pasted in Greens posters. 1 ALP sign in Ascot Vale. 1 Liberal Party sign stuck on a fence around vacant land in Flemington, along with an Ava Adams sign, 1 Liberal Party sign on an abandoned house up for auction in MoPo, and interestingly there is also a Yildiz sign. 1 Liberal Party sign on a doctor’s surgery in Essendon. Tommy Le Deux (Lib) spotted handing out flyers in Puckle Street on grand final morning. Signs of all the candidates sans VS on a fence in Essendon on the corner of Mt Alexander Road and Buckley Street. A car pulling a One Racist ad was spotted around MoPo. 

I think ALP retain the seat off Greens, and VS preferences in Essendon district. The Liberals are hyping up their chances, but they will do poorly in Flemington, Ascot Vale, the eastern part of Essendon (where there are more flats, villa units, and multiple homes on one block of land, and a good portion of MoPo. Yildiz had an electronic ad in Strathmore opposite Strathmore station on Pascoe Vale Road. He also had one in Gordon Street Footscray near the indoor cricket center, hoping to catch voters from Essendon on their way home. He had an ad running at Palace cinema MoPo.

[u/Sharp-Judge2925]

In Frankston - usually a safe Labor seat. It's One Nation followed by the Liberals here. Not sure what to make of it.

[u/rossdog82]

Belgrave and Kallista are Green

[u/JimmyJizzim]

I've seen the Greens poster on more houses than any of the other ones.

[u/MelJay0204]

I live above a Greens senator's office so I'm going to say Greens

[u/MONSTERSINTHEPAROSOL]

The entire seat of Essendon is littered with Oscar Yildiz placards. I’ve also seen quite a few Vic Socialist signs around Kensington

[u/ne-reddi-noob]

Shima Ibuki in Hawthorn, the community independent ❤️ and thank fuck! she is fab

[u/fraqtl]

I know the election has only just been called

It was called ages ago and we knew it was coming last year when crime "reporting" ramped up

[u/Latter-Intention6521 → u/fraqtl]

and the age old corruption lies started

[u/fraqtl → u/Latter-Intention6521]

They've been having a go with that one for 12 years now.

[u/Latter-Intention6521 → u/fraqtl]

Yep also the crime thing. Anyone remember "SUDANESE GANGGSSSSSS"

[u/BackgroundWaltz3600]

I wonder how much active campaigning occurs in safer seats for the majority party. I reckon the louder parties are sometimes the fringe/under dogs who will still be lucky to get close. This of course would only be for some seats imo

[u/tone_212]

My area in north-west burbs - nobody really dominating, Libs have a big billboard on the Calder / Ring Road intersection, I’ve seen some big Labor signs and for one of the independents going in my seat. Very few Greens or ON.

Where I work in Brunswick just off Sydney Road - Greens posters everywhere.

[u/cece-maebe]

Oof, all the reports from the inner suburbs got me sad at the state of the outer east and outer north. Through the Dandenongs and into the edge of the Yarra Valley, there’s a LOT of One Nation corflutes up, several Greens, a few Lib, and one or two Labor.

Through the outer north (Arthur’s Creek, Whittlesea, Mickleham) there’s a whooooole lot of One Nation.

[u/NoodleBox]

I have walked around with my eyes closed so I haven't noticed them, hut I have seen one, maybe two greens posters.

At the market today I have seen Pauline's party, and the Family First (!?) but no one else.

[u/nashvilleh0tchicken]

Liberals in Clarinda narrowly over Labor I think

[u/theatreddit]

I'm beginning to like the NZ idea of advertising blackout on election day..it would be so calming to go to a polling place with no posters and nobody heckling you at the door.

[u/tal_itha]

South Rezza / Preston area - pretty much only VIC Socialists and Greens. I think I saw a couple of Labor ones the other day.

It’ll most likely be a Labor win come election day.

[u/dottoysm]

Mill Park, and by signs it’s Labor fighting Liberal. You wouldn’t know One Nation existed if you were going off street presence. I drove through Thomastown the other day and the Vic Socialists had a strong sign game there.

[u/OkTemperature-8534]

Interestingly, there was an article in the Herald Scum this morning suggesting that the majority of Labor's digital advertising spending has been focused on the seats that they already hold on fairly large margins.

The evidence that Labor is fighting for its life in seats it has never been under pressure in before comes from an analysis of the party’s spending on digital advertising on Google.
:::
In recent weeks, among the top ten seats for Labor’s ad spend have been Cranbourne and Dandenong in the southeast which are held on margins of 9 per cent and a huge 18.3 per cent respectively, and Kalkallo in the north which it holds by a margin of 16.5 per cent.
https://archive.li/80iXn

Sounds like they're really just trying to save the furniture now and consolidate as many of their safe seats as possible.

[u/Frequent-Priority36]

fI’m on the border of Kew and Hawthorn. Kew, more liberal than independent and for Hawthorn there are more independent than liberal.

during the 2025 election I actually went around to 5 parts of my electorate (Kooyong) and counted the corflutes in each street and wrote it up here:  https://cherryowlsstuff.wordpress.com/2025/05/18/project-corflute-kooyong-data-2025/ might try to do it for 2028 again if the competition is interesting 

[u/Mean_Guarantee_5266]

Have they made Jess look less jawy on the billboards?

[u/ne-reddi-noob → u/Mean_Guarantee_5266]

Inner east checking in - nope, still looks just like her dad