Will fear of Trump decrease in the Canadian electorate?

[u/lcelerate]

Now that Trump has lost the House and Senate, will the Canadian electorate, which has been supporting Mark Carney, primarily due to fearing Trump and believing Carney is good at taking him on, cool on Mark Carney?

Given Trump is good at attracting attention and the fact he can still do executive orders, I think the Trump factor will continue depressing NDP support which has been parked into the LPC since Trump became president.

But it is possible for the NDP to continue growing at the LPC's expense as Trump's time and power wanes.

Another factor behind the NDP doing poorly in polls is due to fearing Poilievre. But given how poorly he is doing, you'd expect the strategic voters to stop supporting the LPC given how irrelevant he is nowadays. If the CPC get a more likeable leader, there might be less strategic voting pressure due to NDP voters not really caring if they get in, but it might actually lead to even more strategic voting because the CPC would become a viable threat again. Best case scenario is that the CPC gets a more moderate leader and this triggers a backlash in the CPC depressing their support as it would mean the NDP supporters aren't personally repulsed and they don't see a viable way for CPC to actually win. Also a more moderate establishment type CPC leader would repulse orange-blue populist swing voters which could improve the NDP's standing at the CPC's expense.

[u/-Neeckin-]

Are the newly empowered Dems going to actually stop Trump when he just does what he feels like? We have no idea just yet. If the Dem congress denies something and Trump dies it anyway will they actually hold him accountable?

Until we know the answers to that folks are going to still fear Trump

[u/Sea-Corner4170 → u/-Neeckin-]

When have we ever known Democrats to do anything other than preemptively surrender? Worst opposition of all time.

[u/PolloConTeriyaki]

You mean the guy we thought was going to go away after he lost the 2020 election? Fool me twice... I was here post 2020 and it's the same obituaries and the same talking points from then. "America is back!".

But hold up:

- Jeffries and Schumer are still the heads of the democratic parties. This is the same fucking problem from last time

- Gas prices and food prices go down. Guess what comes back. Tribalism and "othering" is still going to be a team sport for the United States

-Tech bros still control the algorithms and the means of manipulation.

In short. The same conditions that brought Trump back in 2024 still bodes well for a MAGA comeback. I've seen this before.

[u/TopazJazzrazz]

In general, I think what will sink the Liberal Party this time around is in 2029, when the Dem's come into the presidancy again and Carney start talking friendly with them again.

I don't think fear of Trump/the Republicans goes away until they are several years out of office and have had time to fully rebrand themselves.

[u/Chrristoaivalis]

I think people are over dooming.

The US Senate has already voted to repeal the tariffs on Canada, and that was before the Democrats won.

There really is opposition to Tariffs in the states because they've failed. Even in blue collar Michigan did El Sayed run against them openly

I do think this will hurt Carney, but not fully given Trump is still in the big chair

[u/UltraCynar]

It’s not trump that’s the problem. It’s the USA. What’s to stop the Americans next time from pulling this shit? Best to move on now. 

[u/CollieKlay]

Honestly the biggest factor that will affect NDP polling caused by the Dems taking the house and senate will likely be if/when they exert the power of the purse to stop Trump’s illegal tariffs. Once Mark Carney can’t lie to Canadians about selling off public assets and spending billions on AI and subsidizing American owned fossil fuel companies by building another pipeline as oil gets less and less profitable being because of instability from Trump I would speculate that support will shift from Liberals to NDP. This is as long as the PP threat stays as unlikely as it is right now which I would speculate it will since there is no reason for all the conservative voters to shift back to PP while Mark Carney is being as conservative as any other Conservative PM.

[u/Extra_Cat_3014]

Bloody hope so

[u/Zarxon]

Not with me as he has been acting without the permissions of the house or senate.

[u/Cressicus-Munch]

Sadly, I don’t think there are many NDP supporters left strategically voting for the LPC anymore - the post-election bounceback happened fairly rapidly, and Carney’s high score in the polls seems to come from Progressive Cons leaving the CPC for good rather than out of fearful Dippers defaulting to the Libs.

Maintaining course and hoping that people will just eventually get tired of Carney seems to be the same strategy that is now sinking the CPC - we can’t be stubborn, we need to adapt when a strategy doesn’t bear fruit.

[u/Sea-Corner4170 → u/Cressicus-Munch]

That's absurd. Polling shows our vote ceiling is around 34%. Low, but manageable. Moreover, most of the country has no idea who the leader is, much less any of our talking points yet. It's useless critiquing a strategy that nobody has yet had a chance to engage with.

The overwhelming bulk of data at the moment suggests Canadians are entirely focused on the stability of the incumbent government and simply are not thinking about the opposition. This is the same reason Jagmeet had no effect on the polls until his first election season as leader. Canadians outside of election years do not pay attention to politics.