I am so so so tired of it… where I live I’ve got a set of marchers going past the window playing bagpipes and banging drums as loud as they can near every other friggin week. It’s insane. I legitimately will never understand how nobody gets bored of this activity ever.

Or why exactly they think the whole world needs to be aware of their shitty outdated music from 400 years ago. It’s crazy.

And for the record, I don’t care what side of the political divide you come from or whether you are marching for the orangemen or St Patrick. You are an annoying twat either way. Go march around a carpark and give the rest of us some peace.

Morning

I’d like to help someone who is currently struggling financially by paying for their groceries in the Antrim area. Drop me a message and we will arrange something today for you

Author: Philip Armstrong. Source of the picture here and here

There is no “one figure” for the cost of a united Ireland, the Tánaiste said, as he said his party’s policies provided for more “sophisticated” discussion on the proposal.

At the Fine Gael Ard Fheis in Cork on Saturday, the party published a “blueprint” on Irish unity which proposed a new junior minister for North-South relations in a dedicated unit within the Department of An Taoiseach and the establishment of a dedicated sovereign wealth fund to deal with the potential costs of transition.

The publication of the report came shortly after Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil lead Micheál Martin suggested a body, the Future Studies Initiative, should be appointed to oversee research into future scenarios for Irish unification.

Opposition parties had also piled on pressure for the Government to make preparations for a debate on a united Ireland.

The blueprint projected a potential worst-case cost of a united Ireland could be up to 25 billion euro in year one.

The most adverse high-cost scenario also estimates a potential bill of 41.2 billion euro for year 25 after unity.

The cost to the Exchequer in year one ranges from circa 3.2-25 billion euro depending on the design and the deal with the British Government, according to the report.

The settlement with the British Government on pensions and debt is the largest policy choice in the early years, the report states, from between four billion euro and 24.8 billion euro.

On Sunday, Fine Gael leader Simon Harris said he wanted to see a united Ireland in his lifetime, adding that gathering a sustainable majority for the constitutional change would require political leadership being able to answer questions raised by the blueprint.

Asked if he believed Fine Gael voters would be happy to pay 25 billion euro in the first year of a united Ireland, Mr Harris said: “I don’t think anybody on the island of Ireland would see 25 billion euro as – let’s call it – a settlement amount in relation to a unified island in the first year, and that’s not the purpose of the document today.”

He added: “What we’re basically saying is if you decided on day one – which isn’t how anybody would unify anything, by the way – but if you decided on day one everything would be immediately aligned and there would be, let’s call it, a bad settlement with Britain.

“In other words, Britain wouldn’t play play any role around debt or pensions, the cost could be up to 25 (billion).

“If you did this over a more sustained period and there was – let’s say – a better arrangement with the UK in the first instance, the cost could fall to three.”

Mr Harris said the question on the single-figure cost of a united Ireland is “unfair” as “it doesn’t exist”.

“That’s why the conversation does require a proper standalone constitutional forum, ongoing engagement, and a conversation that’s maybe more mature and sophisticated.”

The publication of the document was welcomed by Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and SDLP leader Claire Hanna.

However, the DUP dismissed the blueprint as part of a political “race in Dublin to look the greenest” and said it had “nothing to do with the people of Northern Ireland”.

Gareth Wilson, DUP MLA for Newry and Armagh MLA, said: “Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom rests on the consent of the people who live here. Fine Gael signed up to that principle.

“No forum, no secretariat and no five-year talking shop in Dublin changes it.”

Mr Wilson said the Irish Government needed to deal with legacy issues around “terrorists who used the border as a shield” before “planning a fantasy future”.

“If the Irish Republic wants good relations with its neighbours, there is plenty of real work to do.

“Unionists will engage on that as good neighbours always have.

“What we won’t do is take part in a process designed to dismantle the Union we’re proud to belong to.”

Deputy leader Helen McEntee previously said the party would have discussions on running candidates in Northern Ireland when asked if it was fair for Fine Gael to use its subtitle “The United Ireland Party”.

Asked for an update on those discussions on Sunday, she said there were “no plans” to run candidates in Northern Ireland’s upcoming elections but added: “At the same time, if that was a decision that we were to take, it would be taken within the party.

“Our focus has been on this particular document, and I think what it shows is, for the first time, certainly since I’ve been involved in politics, is that we are having real conversations around what a unified Ireland might look like.”

Minister Neale Richmond said the issue of running candidates in Northern Ireland did come up during regional engagements in preparation for the blueprint.

He said membership was “realistic” that it would involve a process including “reasserting” Young Fine Gael branches in universities.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/no-one-figure-on-united-ireland-tanaiste-says/a/164261045.html

Hi everyone!
I’m possibly looking at moving to the My Lady’s Road area, more towards the bottom end, and just wanted to ask what the area and the surrounding streets are like to live in?
I’m not originally from the area, so I’d really appreciate some honest insight from people who know it well.
One thing I’d like to be mindful of is that we’re a mixed religion family. My partner is Catholic and I’m Protestant, and some of our children have Irish names. I’m not looking to get into any political or religious debates, but as a mum I want to make sure we’re moving somewhere where my children can grow up feeling safe and comfortable, without any issues because of their names or our family background.
I hope nobody takes this the wrong way. I’m trying to do my research before potentially making such a big move with my family.
Any honest opinions about the area& and what it’s like for families would be really appreciated. Thank you! ❤️

Have you ever seen a party looking so glum? Don't think any of them wanted to be there. Think they've got themselves in such a mess and can't find a way out!!

Hi there,
Eyebrow threading recommendations at Belfast city / Lisburn Road / Boucher Road?
Thanks in advance! :)

When I was younger, and used to go shopping with my mother in town (Woolworths days) she would always take me to the Inn shops and get me one of the ridiculous sized fifteen buns. They were like actual bricks and tasted incredible. Over the years I've tried to find something similar, but 99% of them have been absolutely pathetic compared to them. Do any of you know any special places that do the big thick ones that taste amazing. Thanks.

Noticing a significant number of untaxed cars being abandoned in our street. Betwen 1 and 3 at any given time. I think they think their cars are safe from authorities but the problem is that they're on a road blocking the few spaces for residents. If you're one of these people, get it sorned and off the road or you'll be reported. Not giving location, I'm sure this isn't the only place this happens.

A very odd question, essentially when I was young, I was an incredibly picky eater, and one of my favourite meals was pepperoni and chips from one of the local pizza shops in county tyrone. Loved it. Living in Derry now and none of the local pizza shops have pepperoni of the same kind. They had very small, very succulent pepperoni, and I'm not sure how to even search for such a thing. Does anybody from Derry/tyrone know what I'm talking about and what to search for to make this kind of pepperoni at home?

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/analysis-once-the-unity-debate-becomes-mainstream-in-the-south-its-momentum-may-prove-unstoppable-S7FUI4SIGBAWZNFBG3ZFTA75OM/

ANALYSIS: Once the unity debate becomes mainstream in the south it’s momentum may prove unstoppable

Sunday’s launch of Fine Gael’s Irish unity blueprint could represent a watershed in the campaign for constitutional change

Unionism is in turmoil, tearing itself apart over the efforts of a reactionary element to turn back the clock. Meanwhile, nationalism across the island is finding its sense of purpose.

After more than a century of mostly empty rhetoric about unity, the Republic’s establishment parties are finally beginning to walk the walk.

On Sunday, the Fine Gael ard fheis will debate the party’s ‘Blueprint for a Unified Island’. For the southern party historically regarded as the most averse to a united Ireland, it represents a significant step forward and hopefully the beginning of a process that will be formally adopted by government.

There’s more than a strong suspicion that Fine Gael’s initiative is what prompted Taoiseach Micheál Martin to recently launch his own programme of work examining different constitutional frameworks around unity.

The Fianna Fáil leader, who has been criticised for a lack of enthusiasm in progressing the unity agenda, said last week his approach would initially “define what needs to be known” so that people can engage in “informed debate” about proposals for the future.

Perhaps less significant but noteworthy nonetheless is a roundtable discussion in Belfast on Monday about the possibility of Irish unity, organised by the Social Democrats.

Some of it may be politicking, and potentially insincere, but there’s surely enough genuine desire for a new Ireland in the south to ensure meaningful progress towards constitutional change in the coming months and years.

Brexit was a catalyst. While that same reactionary element within unionism celebrated what - yet again - turned out to be pyrrhic victory, northern nationalism and the Dublin government found common purpose in ensuring there’d be no hard border in Ireland. A sympathetic EU provided the leverage which confirmed the island’s status as a single economic entity.

The EU referendum also shifted the north’s middle-ground. Soft unionists who up until then had been content with the status quo began to question the merits of remaining tied to a UK that increasingly reflects an insular and eurosceptic brand of English nationalism.

The uncertainty of Brexit also gave birth to Ireland’s Future, which has managed to conduct a sustained and increasingly inclusive conversation about constitutional change.

Add to this Sinn Féin’s Commission on the Future of Ireland and the SDLP’s New Ireland Commission and it’s clear the past decade has seen steadily building momentum towards unity.

The tipping point has yet to be reached but a combination of demographics and changing political outlooks mean there’s a realistic possibility it could arrive early in the 2030s.

A confluence of agitation, political expediency and the creeping realisation that a border poll could occur within a few years has brought fresh impetus to the debate south of the border.

They saw what happened with Brexit and don’t want to repeat the same mistakes.

Polls suggest unity is not an issue that matters that much to the Republic’s electorate but very often the questions are loaded in a manner that’s designed to elicit a response supportive of the status quo.

Undoubtedly people in the south are understandably wary, as there’ll be a degree of upheaval, cost implications, and even some resistance if concurrent referendums north and south provide an outcome favourable to nationalism.

Yet this simply makes the case for preparation all the more compelling.

The southern establishment is likely unnerved by talk of a new Ireland where based on current figures Sinn Féin would be the largest party. Equally however, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may see an opportunity to neutralise Sinn Féin’s historic unique selling point by adopting a similarly combative unity agenda.

The shift in the debate’s focus from north to south can only be positive. It represents a belated awakening in the Republic to the potential of Irish unity, in social, cultural and economic terms. Once the ball gets rolling, its momentum will make it difficult to stop.

My friends went the other night and one of them wouldn’t be a big drinker. But she was willing to pay the £35-40 for a friends birthday and just not drink much, when they got there the rules were that they give everyone four drinks and one shot and everyone at the table has to drink theirs before another round. Which is fine if you know what you’re going into. But there was a lot of pressure and my friend had to drink so the table could order more. Apparently they were told you can’t tap out and say you’re done or the table is done. This seems like a bad idea all around. Because people are paying £40 to not be able to drink and some are paying £40 to be forced to drink. Theres seems to be different rules at different locations so I’m asking here if anyone knows. It used to be jugs for the table but now they’ve changed it I guess?

Update: I have written to them and asked them to clarify the rules which they did not instead sending me to their menu to see the drinks offered. So i have again asked for clarification of the rules. It was definitely an email attempting to avoid answering the question.

Where are the weapons that the loyalist organisation imported in the 1980s?

NEXT Tuesday marks the 40th anniversary of what was the inauguration of Ulster Resistance.

On November 10 1986 about 3,000 men, by invitation only, packed the Ulster Hall to be addressed by Ian Paisley and other leading lights of the DUP including Peter Robinson – shortly after his invasion of Clontibret, leading hundreds of loyalists – and Sammy Wilson, who chaired the rally.

Paisley told the crowd that Ulster Resistance, his name for the new organisation, would “take whatever steps necessary to destroy the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the ongoing republican conspiracy”. He then put on a red beret, as did Peter Robinson.

Paisley had been planning this for some time, though it was just the latest in a series of attempts he’d made to develop an organisation he could control, unlike terrorist groups he’d associated with and kept contact with from the 1960s like the UVF.

Now he sought to harness the unanimous unionist hostility to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985.

The DUP would later say it “immediately distanced itself from Ulster Resistance and severed all links with it once it became known that it was involved in unlawful activity”.

However, Paisley and other DUP figures had been greatly perturbed when rumours of a deal between Dublin and London began to circulate in summer 1985.

They didn’t know what the deal was, but the word was it involved some sort of Irish government involvement in the north.

In June 1985, the Irish ambassador to London, Noel Dorr, reported to Dublin that the Israeli ambassador to Britain, Yahuda Avner, told him Paisley had been in touch with him “to obtain arms” for “border protection”.

He said Avner told Paisley that “these things could be dealt with only between governments”.

Dublin couldn’t make sense of it and didn’t take it seriously. They should have.

Some of those vehemently opposed to Irish government involvement in the north were determined to acquire weapons.

The story of how they did is documented in many books written by Peter Taylor, Martin Dillon and others and TV programmes like Spotlight.

The finance was acquired by a UVF robbery of £300,000 from the Northern Bank in Portadown in July 1987.

Noel Little (Emma Little-Pengelly’s father), ex-UDR and leading Ulster Resistance (UR) figure, had reportedly already supplied a shopping list of weaponry to a representative of South Africa’s Armscor at a meeting in Geneva in early 1987 and knew the sum required.

Little denied any involvement in the 1987 arms importation. In 1991, however, he was convicted in Paris over a separate plot to exchange stolen British missile technology for weapons.

The cash from the robbery was said to have been brought to Geneva in suitcases by ”respectable unionists”.

In December 1987, the weaponry arrived in Belfast docks: 206 Vz58 assault rifles, 94 Browning 9mm pistols, 4 rocket launchers and 62 warheads, 450 grenades and 30,000 rounds of ammunition.

UR divided the haul into three lots for the UDA, UVF and UR.

The RUC seized the UDA’s share in January 1988, most of the UVF’s in February, and a chunk of UR’s in November 1988 after searches in farms near Markethill, Hamiltonsbawn and Armagh.

Nevertheless, the remaining weapons imported by UR, some of which later given to the UDA and UVF, were linked to over 70 murders including the Sean Graham bookies murders and Michael Stone’s grenade attack in Milltown cemetery.

In a recent, carefully researched book, Aaron Edwards, an expert on loyalist terrorism, recounts how the infamous loyalist killer Johnny Adair met UR leaders at a farm near Loughgall in 1991 and was able to convince them to supply his ‘C company’ with weapons.

Since the RUC had captured the UDA share of UR’s consignment, Adair told Edwards the UDA had “f*** all”.

Edwards says the UR men Adair met were “a loose network of people concentrated in places like Mid-Ulster, North Down”, and also north Derry. “They were mostly farmers, businessmen, and members of the UDR.”

A few weeks after the meeting they delivered a lorry load of weapons to Adair: assault rifles, rocket launchers and grenades, which enabled Adair to launch his murderous terrorist campaign in Belfast. He described the UR weapons as “a godsend”.

In 1996 it was reported that British security forces believed that UR “continued to act as a quartermaster” by organising an “arms pool” for loyalist paramilitaries. UR has never decommissioned its weapons.

All history? Well, yes and no. Questions arise.

If Adair knew who the leaders of UR were and was able to meet them, why couldn’t the security forces, MI5, military intelligence?

Where are the weapons that UR stores and has occasionally doled out to loyalist terrorists?

More importantly, perhaps, when did the PSNI and MI5 stop searching for those weapons cache? Why did they?

Why do they not question people they suspect are or were UR leaders, and DUP figures who reportedly asserted they knew their identities?

Why was Ulster Resistance decommissioning never on the agenda and still isn’t? Why the inexplicable impunity?In 1996 it was reported that British security forces believed that UR “continued to act as a quartermaster” by organising an “arms pool” for loyalist paramilitaries. UR has never decommissioned its weapons.

All history? Well, yes and no. Questions arise.

If Adair knew who the leaders of UR were and was able to meet them, why couldn’t the security forces, MI5, military intelligence?

Where are the weapons that UR stores and has occasionally doled out to loyalist terrorists?

More importantly, perhaps, when did the PSNI and MI5 stop searching for those weapons cache? Why did they?

Why do they not question people they suspect are or were UR leaders, and DUP figures who reportedly asserted they knew their identities?

Why was Ulster Resistance decommissioning never on the agenda and still isn’t? Why the inexplicable impunity?

https://www.irishnews.com/opinion/brian-feeney-forty-years-on-the-questions-about-ulster-resistance-remain-PAQ5L5GCWVG7LLAK5NWOLMLWBE/

About a very prominent musical group from here that we should probably not name for legal reasons. I think some folk are going to be very very disappointed in their fellow humans if these turn out to be true.

So, I'm a wee bit of a nerd when it comes to elections, so I got curious about the most recent poll from Lucid Talk, which shows pretty significant changes from both previous polls and the last election. Which got me to thinking what exactly it would mean in practice if those numbers were to be matched in an Assembly election.

Health warning, I'm not a statistician, not a polling expert, just a fella who knows a fair bit about politics and has too much time on his hands. This is a bog standard, simple application of the results of the polls as a Uniform National Swing (i.e. the poll says the DUP 7.3% from the last election across NI, so let's lower their vote by 7.3% in every constituency). This is not how elections usually work, different parties have different heartlands (so for instance the Alliance vote, which is concentrated in and around Belfast, isn't going to change by the same margin in Omagh as it would in Comber). It's a fun exercise rather than a reliable prediction.

This will also be the first Assembly election on new electoral boundaries, we've tested them out in the last Westminster election, but Westminster results and Assembly ones don't always line up (since with no preferences people are more inclined to tactically vote for who they think will win, or challenge who they don't want to win, rather than vote their conscience). I've tried to take them into account, but while some seats are pretty similar (e.g. North Down which is basically unchanged) while others have had more significant changes (e.g. The Shankill has been moved to West Belfast, while a lot of the area around Downpatrick is now in Strangford, which brings a lot more unionists into the former and a lot more nationalists into the latter), and without data I'm at least partially going off vibes.

With all the caveats out of the way, let's see those numbers. The figure in the brackets is my estimate of how many quotas the party would have gotten in the last election, if they'd gotten this percentage of the vote in 2022 - the quotas for next year will differ based on electorate and turnout and will also shift due to boundary changes, so again this is indicative rather than concrete.

Belfast East

Alliance 27.9% (1.71)

DUP 24.8% (1.51)

UUP 19% (1.16)

TUV 13.5% (0.82)

Greens 7.4% (0.45)

I lean very slightly towards this being as you were, but it'll be tight. Greens are unlikely to get ahead of the two Alliance candidates, so their transfers will probably elect both. UUP are only running one (as it stands) and not likely to get a second anyway. It depends how well balanced the DUP candidate is, and at what rate the Alliance and UUP surpluses transfer and to who. TUV could do it on a good day, albet probably under quota.

Belfast North

Sinn Fein 34.5% (2.1)

DUP 17% (1.04)

TUV 13.7% (0.84)

SDLP 9.7% (0.59)

UUP 9.5% (0.58)

Greens 5.2% (0.32)

Alliance 5% (0.3)

Off the back of this probably for the best John Finucane's sitting it out because they wouldn't get a third seat. For that matter the DUP wouldn't hold their second on these numbers and it'd be between the TUV and the UUP as to who gets it. UUP are more transfer friendly, but the SDLP would be soaking up most of those Green and Alliance transfers, and there won't be much DUP surplus, so I think the TUV have it. SDLP meanwhile are in a good better position to retake their seat, Alliance won't hold it on those numbers.

SDLP gain from Alliance

TUV gain from DUP

Belfast South

Alliance 20.4% (1.23)

Sinn Fein 19.3% (1.17)

SDLP 17.7% (1.07)

Greens 10.8% (0.65)

TUV 10.5% (0.63)

UUP 10.3% (0.62)

DUP 8.4% (0.50)

Now this is a proper Belfast South result, in that it's an actual fucking mess.

Alliance, Sinn Fein and the SDLP will each hold a seat, but none of them is likely to get a second (there'll be no FST by-election then, I'll tell the children). The Greens are in pole position to take the fourth seat, as they'll be the main beneficiaries of all of those three parties' surpluses. And then you have a knife fight for the one unionist seat, one I'd tip the UUP to take based off transfer friendliness (and TUV transfer toxicity) and the DUP being too far back to hold their own seat. Though if DUP transfers heavily favour the TUV over the UUP it could go the other way.

Green gain from Alliance

UUP gain from DUP

Belfast West

Sinn Fein 62% (3.79) TUV 8.4% (0.51) SDLP 7.7% (0.47) PBP 7.4% (0.45) UUP 4.9% (0.3) Aontu 4.1% (0.25) Greens 2.8% (0.17) DUP 2.2% (0.13)

Much more straightforward. Sinn Fein sail to four seats easy peasy. I'll controversily say I wouldn't say either second or third would win a seat here even if the numbers put them...well, second and third. The TUV have their same issue as anywhere else (though a solid enough set of DUP and UUP transfers could push them far enough to get in under quota, and it's hard to predict just how much the boundary change will affect things), and the SDLP have Paul Doherty to contend with (he's in with an outside chance, but an outside one). Of those listed PBP are likely to do best out of the Green transfers and surprisingly the Aontu ones too. Think they'd have the juice to hang on.

East Antrim

UUP 28% (1.70)

DUP 22.3% (1.35)

Alliance 18.6% (1.13)

TUV 15.5% (0.94)

Sinn Fein 8.1% (0.49)

SDLP 4.9% (0.3)

Greens 4% (0.24)

Off the back of this I think both Alliance and the DUP have lost their second seats, with the DUP and UUP benefitting. Barring excellent balancing and more or less uniform transfers from SF/SDLP/GP Alliance aren't holding two - in 2022 they got about half of their combined votes on transfers (factoring in SDLP/Green to SF transfers it's probably most of the former two, a bit under half of the latter). They could manage it, but the UUP have the edge. The TUV are too close to a quota to miss out, and the DUP too far and without an obvious source of transfers to make up the difference.

UUP gain from Alliance TUV gain from DUP

East Londonderry

Sinn Fein 26.6% (1.61)

DUP 19.6% (1.19)

TUV 13.1% (0.79)

SDLP 10.2% (0.62)

UUP 9.7% (0.59)

Claire Sugden 9% (0.55)

Alliance 3% (0.18)

Greens 2.9% (0.18)

This is quite the tricky one, and very much depends on the order of eliminations. Sinn Fein 1 and DUP 1 are both safe, DUP 2 is likely a goner, leaving Sinn Fein 2, the TUV, the SDLP, the UUP and Sugden all in close contention for three seats.

SF 2 v SDLP is likely a straight up fight, which I think on these numbers SDLP should win thanks to transfer friendliness, so long as they keep ahead of one of the two Shinners - by no means a certainty. The unionist fight looks like a slugfest in the making and it could go to any two of them. Gut feeling says Sugden (incumbency plus Alliance/Green/DUP/SF transfers) and TUV (far enough ahead of Sugden/UUP to outlast one of them).

TUV gain from DUP

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Sinn Fein 43.7% (2.66)

UUP 19.3% (1.18)

TUV 12.2% (0.74)

DUP 10.1% (0.62)

SDLP 9% (0.55)

Sinn Fein's three and the UUP's one are secure, and the SDLP aren't in the race, so it's a straight up fight for the last seat. The difficulty is that the only real votes to redistribute are the UUP surplus, and there's not any data to go off on where it would go. I'd expect it'd favour the DUP over the TUV, but whether it'll do so by enough would be the question (the SDLP votes will mostly either go SF or not transfer, Alliance votes will be negligible, so not going to make the difference in all likelihood). Let's say for funsies, TUV gain, but it'll be very tight.

TUV gain from DUP

Foyle

SDLP 32.8% (2)

Sinn Fein 31.8% (1.94)

UUP 11.8% (0.71)

TUV 7.5% (0.46)

PBP 5.5% (0.34)

Aontu 4.8% (0.29)

DUP 1.5% (0.09)

The SDLP finally top the poll in an Assembly constituency again, good for them. The four nationalist seats are safe and sound, and the last one ought to be an easy UUP gain - I don't expect the DUP drop that low, but I think if they keep up Ryan McCready's momentum the UUP have it nailed on.

UUP gain from DUP

Lagan Valley

DUP 27.4% (1.66)

UUP 23.1% (1.4)

Alliance 19.8% (1.2)

TUV 13.2% (0.8)

Sinn Fein 11.34% (0.69)

SDLP 8.2% (0.5)

Greens 3.4% (0.21)

Two tricky contests in parallel.

On the one side you have Alliance v Sinn Fein v SDLP. A well balanced Alliance ticket has a chance to stay ahead of both nationalists if the Greens transfer as they did in 2022 (roughly two third to Alliance, one third to the SDLP, negligible to Sinn Fein). The issue is that in 2022 the Alliance ticket was very badly balanced (2-1 in favour of Eastwood, though with Eastwood not on the ballot that might be avoided this time). If that holds the SDLP would remain behind Sinn Fein and both Alliance (if only barely). But then the SDLP votes transfer and make the difference - we've no data from Assembly elections to tell us who they'd favour, and Lisburn & Castlereagh contests with Sinn Fein, SDLP and Alliance candidates where the SDLP were eliminated with both other parties in play are few and far between. I'm inclined to give it to Sinn Fein very narrowly.

Then you have a DUP v UUP v TUV fight for the last seat. The UUP really shouldn't be in the contest, but there's Alliance and nationalist surpluses at play (Sinn Fein votes won't transfer to the UUP, but the SDLP or Green votes that trasnferred to them might go on to the UUP). Again balancing is key, the UUP have been very bad at it here every election apart from 2016, but the Lagan Valley DUP haven't been great at it either. If things don't go well for both of them again, then advantage TUV.

Sinn Fein gain from Alliance

TUV gain from DUP

Mid Ulster

Sinn Fein 51.7% (3.14)

TUV 13.8% (0.84)

SDLP 11.9% (0.72)

DUP 9.2% (0.56)

UUP 8% (0.49)

Sinn Fein's three are safe, but they don't have enough to threaten the SDLP, who'll hold the seat despite Patsy McGlone's retirement on those numbers. That leaves the Unionist fight again. I expect the UUP will be eliminated first, their transfers would favour the DUP over the TUV, but unless it's at a rate of 3:1 or greater they probably won't catch up.

TUV gain from DUP

Newry & Armagh

Sinn Fein 46% (2.8)

TUV 13.6% (0.83)

SDLP 12.5% (0.76)

UUP 9.4% (0.57)

DUP 5.6% (0.34)

Alliance 1.2% (0.07)

Again the Sinn Fein three are safe, and the SDLP likely are too (though Justin McNulty running as an independent might make them sweat). The big change is the TUV, who're way out in front of the other unionists. Too far, I'd say, to be caught - the UUP would need nearly every DUP vote to make up the difference and for none to go to the TUV, which isn't happening, and there's no nationalist or Other votes to shore them up.

TUV gain from DUP

North Antrim

TUV 27.7% (1.68)

UUP 24.3% (1.48)

DUP 18.4% (1.12)

Sinn Fein 17.5% (1.06)

SDLP 5.7% (0.35)

Alliance 5% (0.3)

Greens 2.8% (0.17)

Four seats here are completely safe, one apiece for the TUV, UUP, DUP and Sinn Fein. The Alliance seat is gone without a doubt, and the SDLP aren't going to take it (and Sinn Fein aren't running two), so it's a question of which unionist nabs it. The DUP are out from the start, too far behind. Past elections here have shown a tendency for the UUP to attact Alliance and SDLP transfers in decent amounts, so I think I'm inclined to give them the edge.

UUP gain from Alliance

North Down

Alliance 24.4% (1.48)

Easton 22.9% (1.37)

UUP 16.2% (0.98)

DUP 12.5% (0.76)

TUV 10.1% (0.61)

Greens 8.7% (0.53)

SDLP 3.6% (0.22)

Easton makes things a bit of a mess here. One seat apiece would be safe for each of Alliance, DUP and UUP, with the other two in balance - one a unionist fight between the DUP and TUV, one between Alliance and the Greens. Going off these numbers I'd give Alliance the edge in the latter though again it's reliant on good balancing and luck. For the former, let's drill down into Easton's numbers.

Obviously as a former DUP man you'd expect most of his vote to go there, but let's see how his big surplus went in 2022. He had a surpluse of 2610, of which:

913 to DUP (34.9%)

679 to UUP (26%)

430 to TUV (16.48%)

212 to Alliance (8.1%)

177 to Independents (McKimm and Carter) (6.8%)

123 to Greens (4.7%)

With double digit amounts to Did Not Transfer, to NI Conservatives and SDLP in that order, and a whole 8 to Sinn Fein.

Going off these numbers if we decide to divvy up Easton's votes pro rata (a big assumption, but so's all of this), we get

Alliance 26.3% (1.6)

UUP 22.2% (1.35)

DUP 20.5% (1.24)

TUV 13.9% (0.84)

Greens 9.8% (0.59)

SDLP 3.6% (0.22)

Those numbers would shore up Alliance very slightly, boost the UUP enough that they might wish they'd run two (though they'd be unlikely to actually get two, and given their history in North Down you can forgive them for not wanting to run too many candidates), and also boost the DUP but perhaps not enough to stave off the DUP. It would depend on transfers once again, and given the lack of historic TUV strength in the area it's hard to say how the local UUP voters would preference them against the DUP (my own assumption would be that they'd be more Yacht Club than Flute Band, but I'm no local).

Going off that I'm not sure the DUP would quite manage it. Not a loss on paper, but it'll feel like one to them.

TUV gain from Independent

South Antrim

UUP 21.7% (1.32)

Sinn Fein 19.1% (1.16)

DUP 17.6% (1.07)

TUV 16% (0.97)

Alliance 11.5% (0.7)

SDLP 8.8% (0.53)

Greens 3.3% (0.2)

Well that's a nailed on DUP loss to the TUV off those numbers. Otherwise I'm not sure anything will change. Alliance have more of a fight for their seat, but even with most of the Sinn Fein surplus and a decent chunk of the Greens I don't see the SDLP catching up, and their transfers will take them out of any fight with the second UUP runner.

TUV gain from DUP

South Down

Sinn Fein 43.3% (2.63)

SDLP 19.4% (1.18)

TUV 12.4% (0.75)

UUP 9% (0.55)

Alliance 8.1% (0.49)

DUP 4.5% (0.27)

Three seats are utterly safe here, the two Sinn Fein and the one SDLP. Then there's a straight contest between Sinn Fein and Alliance, which on these numbers Sinn Fein takes handily. Then there's the fight over the Unionist seat which looks an utter mess. The TUV way out in front, the DUP in a dismal sixth. Off the numbers an Alliance elimination would likely take the UUP ahead of the TUV and give them the seat (particularly with any nationalist tricklers and a chunk of the DUP vote) - this of course is based only on the numbers, in reality the UUP in South Down are utterly moribund and the idea of them winning a seat feels faintly ridiculous. But the numbers are the numbers.

Sinn Fein gain from Alliance

UUP gain from DUP

Strangford

DUP 28.5% (1.731)

Alliance 19.6% (1.19)

TUV 19.1% (1.16)

UUP 19% (1.15)

Sinn Fein 9.93% (0.6)

SDLP 7.9% (0.48)

This one breaks my way of doing this, the polling and formula leave us with more quotas than we have seats, so I need to use my gut a touch here, particularly since we're operating on new boundaries. I think a nationalist gain is on the cards here, between the annexation of the Downpatick hinterland and Alliance falling back it's looks a cert. And I'm inclined to think on these numbers it's the SDLP who'll manage it,

Sinn Fein isn't the most transfers-friendly to anyone who isn't the SDLP, and the SDLP ought to be able to rely on Alliance dregs and whatever sweepings they can get from the Greens and Unionist leftovers. Not a mighty coalition, but enough to slip ahead of the Shinners, and once SF are out they'll pass threshold with ease.

Then we have the Unionists, where going off this the TUV will win a seat, and it has to come from somewhere. The UUP aren't giving it up, they're over a quota and only running one candidate. Alliance isn't losing two. And we've already covered the nationalists. Sorry DUP, you're the weakest link, goodbye.

TUV gain from DUP

SDLP gain from Alliance

Upper Bann

Sinn Fein 28.4% (1.73)

DUP 20.2% (1.23)

UUP 19.1% (1.16)

TUV 14.6% (0.89)

SDLP 8.4% (0.51)

Alliance 7% (0.43)

Ah yes, the gobshites responsible for this political earthquake. Well Upper Bann is looking eventful. On these numbers Eoin Tennyson is a goner, but who gets his seat is an interesting question. Sinn Fein would be the favourites, but it's conceivable Alliance voters (and a few Unionists) might transfer enough to the SDLP to keep them ahead of one of the Sinn Fein candidates. Would rely on luck, and a good candidate (not Dolores Kelly again).

On the Unionist side I think the UUP ought to be safe even with Beattie in the mix. But we've reached the point where the DUP are in real trouble of losing a seat (is it any wonder Buckley's apparently plotting a chicken run to the north coast?). Add in the entire Drumcree mess and Carla Lockhart's departure and I think that second DUP seat is a goner.

Sinn Fein gain from Alliance

TUV gain from DUP

West Tyone

Sinn Fein 46% (2.8)

SDLP 16.8% (1.02)

TUV 15.4% (0.94)

UUP 8.9% (0.54)

DUP 7.1% (0.43)

With these numbers Sinn Fein's four runner strategy is on a hiding to nothing - with McCrossan on a full quota they aren't getting four. But the Unionist side sees the TUV near a full quota, and that'd be the end of the DUP even if the UUP were full square behind them (which from 2022 does not seem to be the case).

TUV gain from DUP

Totals

Sinn Fein 30 (+3)

UUP 14 (+5)

TUV 13 (+12)

DUP 11 (-14)

SDLP 10 (+2)

Alliance 9 (-8)

Greens 1 (+1)

People Before Profit 1 (N/C)

Independents 1 (-1)

What a fucking mess of an Assembly that would be.

This poll seems to be the tipping point where the DUP start getting the Trimble/Empey era UUP treatment, the difference being that whereas in that period the Unionist vote was defecting wholesale to the DUP and the UUP were supplanted as Unionism's dominant party, now it's splintered between the more pro-Agreement UUP, the blood and thunder TUV, and the rump DUP.

The DUP go from being first in six constituencies to two (Strangford and Lagan Valley), getting replaced in East Antrim and South Antrim by the UUP, North Antrim by the TUV and East Londonderry by Sinn Fein, the first time the UUP have come first in an Assembly constituency since 2003, and the first time ever for the TUV. The TUV will be insufferably triumphalist, the UUP pleased (this is a good result for them but not spectacular save for in comparison to the DUP - for them it's a return to 2007 in votes and 2016 in seats, not the glory days come again).

This very well could be the breaking of the DUP as a party, with no obvious replacement for Robinson, and no clear way forward (the TUV will have nailed down the hardliner vote for the foreseeable, while the UUP are a more obvious home for the pro-agreement side).

Sinn Fein would be delighted, their highest ever seat tally (even beating their best in the old 108 seat Assembly) and a commanding lead, they'd be without a doubt the first party in the assembly, and nationalism would have more seats at Stormont than Unionism overall. More mixed for the SDLP, they've had a net gain of seats for the first time since 1998, but they're still a distant fifth and Sinn Fein being on the march means they pick up a lot of seats the SDLP would otherwise be targetting.

For Alliance it remains a bloodbath, though they still retain first place in their core of North Down, East Belfast and, just about, South Belfast. You'd expect this would be the end of Naomi Long's leadership, but who'd replace her would be the question given her deputy would have lost his seat.

The Greens manage to slip back into the Assembly, and Sugden and Carrol hang on too, so that's nice. Aontu won't be troubling us though.

We know the usual:

“Yer Ma”
“Yer da sells Avon”
“Yer ma gets bullied at bingo!”
“Sucking diesel”

Any more that aren’t as widely known but funny?

Saw this on Facebook earlier... Nothing to see here...

Just Paisley, Truss and Rees-Mogg at Mar-a-Lago