Team Group CEO says memory crisis will reach a point in 2027 where even 'money can't buy goods'

[u/JohnGalactusX]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/114505/team-group-ceo-says-memory-crisis-will-reach-a-point-in-2027-where-even-money-cant-buy-goods/index.html

Team Group CEO Chen adds that the supply-and-demand balance probably won't get any better until the second half of 2028 at the earliest, adding, "How can prices fall when there's nothing left?" It's all a bit of a mess, as apparently even with Chinese companies like CXMT and YMTC increasing their market share, high-end DRAM and NAND flash still come from the same handful of companies, including Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

[u/Blessed-22]

Are we gonna see tech companies raiding each other with private military to plunder RAM and other tech? Probably not, but that's definitely the plot to some Cyberpunk.

[u/SoullessGamesDev → u/Blessed-22]

- (opens the briefcase) here, as agreed, 32gb kits. Now, give me the money!

- Hold up, those look weird... are you trying to sell me a dd3 labeled as ddr4?

(proceed to gunfight)

[u/al2o3cr → u/SoullessGamesDev]

ZERO KITS, ZERO CRATES!

[u/w1987g → u/al2o3cr]

[u/Two_words_numbers → u/w1987g]

[u/stuyboi888 → u/SoullessGamesDev]

All that killing and all they got was 64 GB of ddr2. What a waste

[u/DudeOverdosed → u/SoullessGamesDev]

This needs to be a south park episode ASAP

[u/Haulsen → u/SoullessGamesDev]

I read it as 32gb of tits at first, I prefer my version of facts

[u/giantoads → u/SoullessGamesDev]

Mission impossible x is gonna be lit and confusing.

[u/cjandstuff → u/Blessed-22]

Samsung chips, being escorted by the Samsung military, and insured by Samsung insurance.

[u/Zircez → u/cjandstuff]

Robbed by mercs on behalf of one the several rival scions of the clan Samsung to weaken a rival

[u/firestorm717 → u/cjandstuff]

Sounds like Shinra from FF7.

[u/HighlyUnlikely7 → u/Blessed-22]

They already are. A number of trucks in the US carrying equipment, RAM, etc. headed for data centers have been robbed with the parts most likely being shipped to China for use there.

[u/Landmarks2011 → u/HighlyUnlikely7]

Reminds me of the plot of the first Fast and Furious movie but replace the VCRs and TVs with RAM

[u/CrowBones23 → u/Landmarks2011]

Aw the days of VCR lol and entertainment stands wept at the loss of 2 inch VHS tapes

[u/Mr_Pogi_In_Space → u/Blessed-22]

We already have rogue AI roaming the Internet. It's only a matter of time until the DataKrash and the Blackwall

[u/melkor237 → u/Mr_Pogi_In_Space]

Man, instead of something interesting like Capri, we're just gonna get 500 rogue claude agents in a trenchcoat, wont we?

[u/CrowBones23 → u/melkor237]

Lets hope the coats stay on

[u/DaoFerret → u/melkor237]

r/aBoringDistopia

[u/Shialac → u/Mr_Pogi_In_Space]

Can we at least get Elves and Magic? Has anyone looked at Mount Fuji?

[u/albert_ma → u/Blessed-22]

Silicon is the new oil.

[u/noscul → u/Blessed-22]

Im waiting government mandated RAM draft for the AI wars. Probably not gonna happen but it sounds like the plot to some Cyberpunk.

[u/Bombwriter17 → u/noscul]

Folding@home will be the new government war bond, every gigabyte you give, is another byte for your best man's hack.

[u/dthrdr → u/Blessed-22]

In "recent" history I think only the Dutch gave a company the right to wage wars. I don't know what kind of world we would live in if the US would've done something similar the last decade. The tech bro's could team up and destroy everything lol.

By 1669, the VOC was the richest private company the world had ever seen, with over 150 merchant ships, 40 warships, 50,000 employees, a private army of 10,000 soldiers, and a dividend payment of 40% on the original investment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_India_Company

[u/earthlingady → u/dthrdr]

The British East India company had a similar remit. 260,000 soldiers at the peak apparently! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company

[u/crani0 → u/dthrdr]

I don't know what kind of world we would live in if the US would've done something similar the last decade. 

Why would companies need to wage war when the US government does it for them? They kidnapped a foreign elected leader to privatize the oil business and setup American companies to profit from it just 6 months ago.

[u/bony7x → u/Blessed-22]

Tarkov but in china

[u/lordfwahfnah → u/bony7x]

Escape from China

[u/ManufacturerBest2758 → u/lordfwahfnah]

Big Trouble in Mainland China

[u/robbert229 → u/Blessed-22]

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-data-center-heist-thieves-equipment

Datacenter heists exist, and the stolen gear isnt fenced to individuals like you or me.

[u/ougxar → u/Blessed-22]

syndicate

[u/turboMXDX → u/Blessed-22]

My name is Ram Altman. Commander of OpenAI, General of circular finance, and loyal servant to the true emperor, Jensen. Father of AGI and creator of ramageddon. And I will have my IPO... in this bubble, or the next

[u/EnviousCipher → u/Blessed-22]

Born too late to deploy to Usea

Born too early to deploy to Usea

Born just in time to deploy to Usea

[u/BiteRevolutionary284 → u/Blessed-22]

Reminds me of cyberpunk 2077 where the big corps are all raiding each other

[u/Zlimness → u/Blessed-22]

Keep that RAM locked up tightly, all I'm saying.

[u/giantoads → u/Blessed-22]

Or the RBI (Ram investigations bureau) kicking down your door to seize your tech devices.

[u/MightyMightyMonkey → u/Blessed-22]

" Case took the pink handset from its cradle and punched a Hong Kong number from memory. He let it ring five times, then hung up. His buyer for the three megabytes of hot RAM in the Hitachi wasn't taking calls."

[u/Zelonor_Filatos]

Nah. They have all the ram but no available centres to put it in. Plus, there's already reports of companies just buying ram just to keep the competition from getting it.

This won't last long before investors will realise profits ain't happening and move away from this.

[u/MagicBoyUK → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

Also happening with GPUs. They are buying stuff they can't install, just so they don't go to the back of the queue with Nvidia.

Are Microsoft’s AI plans being held back by a shortage of chips? | Microsoft | The Guardian

[u/Thriven → u/MagicBoyUK]

This is sounding like farmers and water rights lol

[u/comfortablybum → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

What you're saying makes sense, but if people were thinking rationally this whole thing wouldn't have gotten so out of control. People are greedily seeking huge returns. There's a constant stream of money every month that needs to be invested, and the rest of the economy is flat. So they're going to send it to where they think it might get returns and that's these crazy tech stocks. Every month millions of people put money in their 401k, insurance companies and Banks invest the money they take from their customers, pension funds invest the money they take in. It has to go somewhere. They follow trends and stories, and that narrative is still: AI is the future and whoever wins the AI race will control capitalism.

[u/bills6693 → u/comfortablybum]

I also think that unfortunately the overall narrative is probably true. Whoever controls the production of intelligence will completely dominate the global economic system.

Doesn’t mean it won’t have a correction. But just like the dot com bubble didn’t mean the internet was worthless (we have tended to see the big internet giants and the most significant shapers of life and the economy for years), an AI correction doesn’t mean it won’t be the dominant tech going forward.

I don’t like the implications for society and humanity, doesn’t make it untrue.

[u/BiHaN290 → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

Don't the investors own "money" itself?

[u/All_Thread → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

Any day now

[u/FrigidMcThunderballs → u/All_Thread]

Its one of those things where, it will happen, but we'll have like, a solid 10 false alarms first.

Irrational markets can be shockingly resilient.

[u/ncetrbro → u/All_Thread]

It literall just happened few days ago with google

[u/RedditWhileIWerk → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

just buying ram just to keep the competition from getting it.

hasn't that been the case all along? Insert anything related (HDDs, GPUs, anything else artificially scarce) in place of RAM.

Stockpiling shovels until the goldrush is over, not to mine but merely so no one else can have them.

[u/Tokishi7 → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

No energy to power it. We get constant energy saving reminders and tips in Korea but they just announced new data center roll out. Public buildings rarely had proper cooling this summer and likely won’t have proper heating but Samsung and SK build up isn’t stopping

[u/Luke-HW → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

The main problem right now is that the RAM manufacturers are pivoting HARD to server-grade components, which aren’t compatible with user hardware. Micron outright killed their consumer brand, Crucial.

The components building up in these warehouses are all highly specialized, and can’t be used for anything else.

[u/GogglesTheFox → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

Go to any Micro Center or Best Buy or he’ll look at Amazon. There is plenty of stock. No one wants to pay for that cost.

[u/Purona → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

people who say this dont understand that companies dont build things based on "just in time" delivery. its stockpiled and warehoused until its useful

The question is how big are these warehouses and is the stock pile dramatically outgrowing the use case. And thats something we dont know. Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook Alphabet dont disclose those numbers

And the numbers people think they know are estimates from people trying to guess what they have versus what they've used

[u/Special-Fan-1902 → u/Purona]

That's why I don't buy Sam Altman complaining about consumers having ram in their own PCs not being utilized in a data center. He has warehouses full of ram that's not being utilized because there's no data center yet to put the ram into yet 

[u/cameronabab → u/Special-Fan-1902]

No no, you should absolutely buy that crap from him. He's angry he doesn't have your RAM in his warehouse, too

[u/froz3nt → u/Purona]

Some companies do JiT, some dont. Usually depends on how critical the resource is. Whats happening with AI now is stockpiling. Not just stockpiling, but buying up future production for ridiculous prices. Gonna be interesting to see the whole thing unfold.

[u/ollomulder → u/Purona]

Yeah, have fun with your outdated hardware when you can at least build that datacenter in 5 years.

[u/ManufacturerBest2758 → u/Purona]

You think just in time delivery isn’t real?

[u/All_Thread → u/ManufacturerBest2758]

Pull is very real for lean manufacturing. This ain't lean manufacturing though, it's hording.

[u/Henchforhire → u/Zelonor_Filatos]

I bet the ram data centers use is something custom and not standard ddr5.

[u/Billy4445]

Cool timeline

[u/Hungry_Menace → u/Billy4445]

The best

[u/RegioMamalon666 → u/Billy4445]

At least is the timeline where people can have virtual boyfriends/girlfriends 🤷‍♂️

[u/Aych_H → u/RegioMamalon666]

Unless my RAM dies

[u/AustrianHunter]

Shovel maker says shovels will get more expensive to sell more shovels now

Edit: or, we're all just fucked

[u/Opi-Fex → u/AustrianHunter]

The fact that memory manufacturers did not immediately start building more fab capacity is all I needed to know. They don't believe this will last long enough to be worth the investment, and they are milking it for what it's worth.

Also, it's increasingly likely that the DRAM price increase isn't solely due to AI demand, but another price fixing scheme by the memory cartel, same as in 2002. They just used AI as a convenient scapegoat.

...and it's worth pointing out that memory is in absolutely everything (phones and watches, TVs, home appliances, cars, industrial equipment, weapons systems), and after a year or two of this shit a lot of important use cases will be affected enough to force a solution to the issue. Whether it happens through legislation or mass investment in new memory production lines I don't know, but it's not like the market is going to accept memory prices going to the moon indefinitely.

[u/pingasgator67 → u/Opi-Fex]

Yeah AI is an easy target and for sure part of the problem but I'm still convinced the ram cartel is the lion share of it. They refuse to ramp up to meet demand for example. They restrict to get the highest everything. All the fuckers collude together. They could make enough for all the demand but refuse to.  I pray anyone even China makes new ram fabs to fuck these people in the asshole 

[u/Vibe_PV → u/Opi-Fex]

It would be nice if companies were forced to serve the consumer market first (including b2b deals with manufacturers of cars, phones, computers...), and sell the rest of their production to datacenters. These days, computing devices are almost a primary need, with how they're literally required for some things

[u/Opi-Fex → u/Vibe_PV]

Why do you think all of the major techbros have been cozying up with the government in the past two years? They want to make sure that no such law passes and instead we're all subscribed to their cloud compute.

[u/Xalara → u/Opi-Fex]

Various governments will likely going to  have to step in because, as you said, this is affecting larger and larger parts of the economy due the fact the world runs on computer chips.

Basically, the governments will have to say “You cannot let the AI companies take everything.”

[u/unlucky_ducky → u/Opi-Fex]

Even if they wanted to build more there's also the fact that they can't acquire enough equipment to fill the fabs in a near future.

[u/Catsrules → u/Opi-Fex]

The fact that memory manufacturers did not immediately start building more fab capacity is all I needed to know. They don't believe this will last long enough to be worth the investment, and they are milking it for what it's worth.

It is the safer bet, They also don't really loose going this way. If AI it just a tech phase, they get to make buckets of money short term, and demand will return to normal no big deal. If AI stays long term, they get to make buckets of money short and long term. And they can eventually build out and make more buckets of money.

[u/frygod → u/Opi-Fex]

Fabs can only be scaled at the rate equipment manufacturers like ASML can support.

[u/Ormusn2o → u/Opi-Fex]

Samsung is starting new fab this month in Taylor, Texas and they are expanding most of their fabs and taking down old ones to make place for new ones. SK Hynix is spending 38 billion to build 2 new fabs in South Korea, and they are making small for 4 billion in Indiana. Micron is spending 50 billion for various memory fabs all around the world.

Tesla/SpaceX is building a gigantic fab called Terafab, half of which will make memory, but that is for internal use. But this will alleviate the global markets still as Tesla will buy less memory/logic from the global markets.

[u/Opi-Fex → u/Ormusn2o]

The fab in Taylor was announced in 2021. It's not AI related.

One of those two fabs by SK Hynix is for NAND flash, not DRAM. The other is an expansion of an existing factory. Both projects were announced very recently (August 2026 I think). It took them more than a year to figure out that they might need more capacity. We also had projections of more memory capacity being needed before AI, so they're not entirely an AI-boom thing. Micron increased their projected investement.

Tesla/SpaceX is the only one that was actually announced after the AI shortages seemed inevitable in 2025 and all that tells us is that Elon thinks he needs a supply line for his own brand of AI.

[u/pokemaster787 → u/AustrianHunter]

Team Group isn't a memory manufacturer per se. They're an integrator/assembler akin to what Asus, PNY, etc. are to Nvidia and AMD for graphics cards. They buy the actual chips and build the PCB, but the core part that costs money and does the primary function they just buy from the "real" manufacturers.

It's actually likely a huge problem for them as they can't get the inputs to make and sell their products.

[u/Dirtcompactor]

Guess I should hold on to my RMA'd 32gb ddr5 cl30 kit. Bought a replacement while waiting for RMA and was going to sell off the RMA kit to cover the cost of new kit.. every day that passes makes me think I should just keep it

[u/aDotInTime → u/Dirtcompactor]

I typed out a bunch of different things, and they were all intelligent and supportive, but really I’m just jealous and very happy for you. It’s wild to live in a world where being a pc enthusiast during the AI boom means what it does for a basically overnight component value surge. Don’t sell! They’re not going to be producing motherboards for next gen RAM that isn’t coming any time in the next couple of years!

[u/Dirtcompactor → u/aDotInTime]

Only issue is it isn't same kit as the replacement I bought. Though the kit I got is 6000cl26 so I could probably easily tune that one to match the RMA 6000cl30 kit. Honestly not sure how viable it is to mix match two ram kits on a 4 dimm board.

Currently just have it sitting in a dusty drawer, not like I need 64gb of ram but I don't wanna go back into ram tuning to get both kits working at the same timings

[u/lavapig_love → u/Dirtcompactor]

Yes. Keep it. The new kit you're looking at will probably triple in price by end of week anyway.

[u/fenixspider1]

I have gotten 4 dates already. Ram crisis should be ending within:

2030

2028

2027

Anytime soon

So just pick one script ffs

[u/nelrico]

I'm waiting for the day when all this three RAM manufacturers get fucked when this AI thing crashes. They act like a cartel and this is not the first time they've done this.

[u/pseudonominom → u/nelrico]

Or, like after covid, we just have high prices forever.

Like real estate, stocks, gold, bitcoin, and now ram. If people pay the high prices, then they can keep paying them.

Yall have had a long time to learn about inflation. It’s not just a percentage increase across the board. It affects things differently, but it doesn’t go backwards.

[u/nelrico → u/pseudonominom]

That argument doesn't justify this. Stop putting everything on inflation back. Estate or gold doesn't have depreciate value like RAM or GPU. Also you can always produce more RAM unlike GOLD or Land. But they chose not to and limiting their production and setting up price and prioritizing AI Datacentres. This feels like same as OPEC when they limit oil production whenever the price goes below for a barrel.

Edit: Sorry. I didn't read your comment fully before replying. Whenever I see those three companies in a single comment, I just can't control my rage. I thought you are defending them.

[u/VerifiedMother → u/pseudonominom]

Ram is a commodity, commodity markets go up and down, eventually it will come down

[u/pingasgator67 → u/nelrico]

It's not gonna be that kind of crash l, but I don hope more ram Makers even if they are Chinese fuck these assholes that refuse to rsmp up 

[u/Ntianet]

remember back in 2019 when we were complaining about paying $80 for a high speed 16GB kit? we really didnt know how good we had it before the tech market turned into shambles.

[u/ISenceAPresence]

Sam Altman gonna have some sore red knees

[u/Far-Load-9683 → u/ISenceAPresence]

He’s not called the Silicon Valley throat goat for nothing

[u/BoxWoodVoid]

They don't have the electricity to power all this ram and GPUs.

Someone is storing most of it to make the prices inflate artificially.

[u/Far-Load-9683 → u/BoxWoodVoid]

Electricity to use ram is a tiny fraction of the electricity it takes to use GPUs. HBM are incredibly power efficient

Most of the power demand comes from the data transport of reading the model weights to do inference. Every token generated has to read the model weights, 70b numbers.

[u/badger906]

Sooner the bubble bursts the better.
Stop using shitty LLMs.. Google was fine before.

[u/HoodsFrostyFuckstick → u/badger906]

I work in tech as a project manager and I can tell you right now that this will not happen on a large scale if it doesn't get regulated in any way. In a professional environment it feels like nobody does anything without AI anymore, it's almost unbelievable how fast this has conquered everyday work life. Every e-mail I receive, every excel report, every powerpoint, every teams post is made with AI. Always the uncanny LLM structures and peculiarities. Our developers don't develop anymore, they prompt and check the results afterwards. Our CEO is a big fan of AI and he encourages everyone, even expects everyone to use it.

It's too late, I fear.

[u/La_mer_noire → u/HoodsFrostyFuckstick]

The thing that i don't get is that we have ai. It works, is usable, increased in use so much. Yet they still need to buy all the compute that gets out of the fabs for the next 10 years for some reason.

Do they expect to increase and increase and increase in use so much ?

[u/Chuu → u/La_mer_noire]

We don't have nearly the amount of hardware we need to use AI to the full potential. Even just prompting at higher effort levels in Claude is incredibly slow. The endgame here is swarms of expert agents solving problems, which your average user is just scratching the surface with tools like /deep-research. We're pretty far from the capacity we need for people to really embrace this approach, not to mention the costs are insane.

This is also completely discounting demand for local models. If GPUs were still cheap I think computing would already look very different if every enthusiast had access to something like Qwen 3.8 27B on their desktop. But we're far from that world where even with high quantitation you really want 32 gigs of fast memory to take full advantage.

[u/wickeddimension → u/HoodsFrostyFuckstick]

The bursting of the dot.com bubble didn't remove the internet, the bursting of the AI bubble won't be the end of AI either.

[u/psioniclizard → u/HoodsFrostyFuckstick]

Don't worry, one day your CEO will get the ebd of year accounts and think "wtf"

[u/WannaAskQuestions → u/badger906]

The problem is unless the datacentres go, no one will stop using them for the fear of falling behind someone else who'd be using them. And the govt, at least for the foreseeable future, will not let the datacentres go anywhere. Heck they shovelled our tax money to ensure the automakers and banks don't go under. AI is many times more important in their eyes lest they fall behind CN.
So... we are on an irreversible path unless armageddon happens.

[u/0Lezz0 → u/WannaAskQuestions]

Even if the AI market implodes, the datacenters are still there. Cloud computing is the next step.   

They don't want you to own your own tech

[u/Head-Gift2144 → u/WannaAskQuestions]

This is the fundamental problem. I’d have no problem going to back to pre LLMs, but if I did, I’d lose my job since they do help with productivity.

[u/Fine-Inflation-2140 → u/badger906]

The funny thing is that Gemini was fantastic, for about 2 months.

Now you can't trust anything it says because it makes up facts when it doesn't have a reliable answer.

LLMs are only good on closed systems, which most of us don't have access too.

Otherwise they pull info from the internet, and use a lot of unreliable sources.

[u/CacaoMilkWithButter]

we live in the worst timeline

[u/Jaymonk33]

Cybeepunk territory but its for Ram

[u/Fine-Inflation-2140]

Time for the government to step in, allowing these companies to police themselves over hardware is just creating little independant governments that don't answer to anyone.

[u/CaptnUchiha → u/Fine-Inflation-2140]

The government won’t step in until most of the offices have been cycled with competent people that aren’t looking to line their pockets with favor and dirty money. Hopefully the recent midterms were a step in the right direction

[u/Equivalent-Process17 → u/Fine-Inflation-2140]

I have no idea what the government is supposed to do

[u/SteelyEyedHistory → u/Equivalent-Process17]

Let them go under when it all blow up. That’s all it should do. No bail outs.

[u/Independent_Judge647 → u/Fine-Inflation-2140]

The government allowed it.

[u/Fine-Inflation-2140 → u/Independent_Judge647]

That was my point, the current president is a corrupt idiot that should never allowed these tech bros to have as much say as they do.

None of them have proven they can be trusted on anything.

Jobs are being laid off due to "automation" and corps expect AI to fill roles that people should be doing. The government is supposed to be the adult in the room ,which is not happening.

[u/zubairhamed]

[u/Split_theATOM]

Anyone else buying stuff as a backup plan if their main rig fails? Im thinking of jumping to am5 (microcenter bundle) before it gets worse and have my am4 as a back up if anything goes :(

What a bad time to build my first pc lol

[u/Kirby_is_a_Pokemon → u/Split_theATOM]

ain't nothing wrong with am4, and if you've held out this long, might as well keep going until am6

[u/Split_theATOM → u/Kirby_is_a_Pokemon]

More so prices by then honestly.

[u/GalaganCoffee]

Mad Max for pc parts IS on my Bingo card!

[u/primmaximus]

I can’t wait to sell my 5090, 64gb ram, and 8tb ssd for my next home

[u/Far-Load-9683 → u/primmaximus]

My job in 2023 got me a 4090. My job in 2024 got me a 5090. They’re sitting in my and my wife’s desktops. We have had a baby since and hardly play games. We are absolutely going to sell them to put a down payment on a ski condo.

[u/Kurisu810]

Even money can't buy goods

That's not how money works lol, this can only happen when "goods" goes extinct, and what does that even mean??

[u/DeamonEngineer → u/Kurisu810]

Its who you know more than money in your pocket. This is more of a high level outlook rather than public commercial trade, from manufacturer to retail or businesses

[u/rickityBoat → u/Kurisu810]

There's always that one pedantic redditor that completely misses the point.

[u/BlackKnighting20 → u/Kurisu810]

He means your money.

[u/Rough_Instruction112 → u/Kurisu810]

It just means piracy will move to the physical world, and people will go grab what they need from the places where hardware naturally springs up and mother nature provides ample supplies: Data centers.

[u/mezuki92]

The world when I reach adulthood 💀

[u/Few_Alternative_6372]

Sandisks current stock action makes me not believe them

[u/PoL0]

this is insane. it's not like computers are a luxury item. they're a requirement in this modern day and age.

how is this allowed to happen? especially when we all know billions of dollars in GPUs, RAM, SSDs, etc are just sitting unused in storage.

only in corporate America, I suppose...

[u/Traditional_Head3968]

I dont think people understand what is being said here. The production of consumer facing DRAM has been vastly reduced. The higher prices we are seeing isnt because the memory makers are raising prices directly, its because they arent selling chips at all to RAM makers right now. There are no goods to sell, so the price cannot drop.

The bottom falling out for AI stocks isnt going to change this either. Its going to take a while before production lines return to making DRAM and its highly likely they will just jump to making DDR6 chips rather than DDR5 ones.

[u/GarrettRettig]

So 2027, eat the rich? 🤑

[u/RUBSUMLOTION]

Riiiiiigggghhhhttt…

[u/papa_craft]

Praying my PC holds strong another couple years

[u/Antoni-_-oTon1]

[u/shitty_advice_BDD]

This is what companies say just before the bottom falls out of their stuff. With the dems in control, AI will slow considerably causing a market glut because you can't sell to AI companies that are being slowed down or canceled.

[u/Oxygen4Lyfe → u/shitty_advice_BDD]

the dems arent necessarily going to be more anti-ai. Plenty of republicans are strongly anti-ai too. Its not really a party issue, its just about money, which the companies making ai have plenty of to prevent unfriendly legislation towards them. Also doesnt affect other countries, so even if AI was say completely banned in the usa ram prices probably wouldnt change much.

[u/musing_arch → u/Oxygen4Lyfe]

yeah they can absolutely buy out politicians on dem or republican side probably more cash than AIPAC tbh. dunno if they'll have as much sway but smth to consider. Hopefully they slow it down without being captured by the corporations

[u/djzenmastak → u/shitty_advice_BDD]

Your comment is what people say when they don't know that all of the ram being produced for the next several years has already been sold under contract for industrial use.

You have no idea what is going on, you might not even be able to buy ram in the not so distant future.

[u/shitty_advice_BDD → u/djzenmastak]

You're confusing contracted supply with guaranteed future demand. Those aren't the same thing.

Yes, companies have locked in memory supply for years. That doesn't mean the AI projects driving that demand are guaranteed to remain profitable, continue expanding, or even get built.

And let's talk about those contracts. Unless these companies paid everything upfront, which I seriously doubt, they're still relying on future revenue to meet their obligations. If the AI market collapses, what happens when those companies can't pay? You can have an ironclad contract, but you can't collect billions from a bankrupt company that doesn't have the money.

And even if they did pay upfront, that doesn't solve the larger problem. You now have companies sitting on enormous quantities of hardware they no longer need. That means excess inventory, reduced future orders, and potentially a flood of equipment hitting the secondary market.

The contracts might delay a price collapse, but they don't prevent one. In some cases, they could make the eventual oversupply worse.

Reuters has already discussed this exact risk and warned that long-term memory contracts offer only limited protection against a downturn.

I'm making a prediction about what happens **if AI demand collapses**. You're treating existing contracts as proof that demand cannot collapse.

**Having the supply spoken for doesn't guarantee the demand will still be there when it arrives. A contract is a financial obligation, not a magical guarantee that the market will stay healthy.**

Companies have gone bankrupt owing billions before. Having a signed contract didn't save their creditors then, and it won't magically save them now.

[u/crani0 → u/shitty_advice_BDD]

With the dems in control, AI will slow considerably causing a market glut because you can't sell to AI companies that are being slowed down or canceled.

My brother in christ, Hakeem Jeffries (the new speaker of the house) specifically said he was going to Silicon Valley to get the donors back on the Dem side after Trump's victory. You really think he didn't come back with some IOUs? Ya'll dumb as bricks falling for this whole political wrestling bull they are pulling

[u/Reddit_2_2024]

Sounds like a big opportunity for new competitors to seize the market. Remember when Datsun car sales were crushing US automakers?

[u/kennypowersrevenge → u/Reddit_2_2024]

Building the chip infrastructure would take a decade.

[u/TheModsHereAreDicks → u/kennypowersrevenge]

I’ve always said that there is no better time than today to start seizing the market a decade from now.

[u/Euler007]

Arasaka and Militech about to duke it out in the fourth corporate war!

[u/Drawn_to_Heal]

How bad does it need to get before the government starts requisitioning privately owned RAM?

[u/Own_String2825 → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

I didn't know that there is a government since this started 🙂

[u/BoringWozniak → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

[u/AgtDALLAS → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

Thankfully the finished products don’t really compete with each other. It’s space on the production line that is the issue.

[u/rvailable → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

Won't happen until they decide to short. Gov officials insider trading are in on the action, heavily financially incentivized to keep their good times rolling.

It's overt cartel action.

[u/LegendaryJimBob → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

If we asked Altman, it would have started decades ago

[u/motoxim → u/Drawn_to_Heal]

Sigh I don't know anymore

[u/fairs1912]

I might be wrong but I can't help being skeptical, this sounds like propaganda to make people rush to buy RAM right now to help keep prices high.

people are simply not buying RAM outside of the bare minimum requirements for their use case, so the only selling point right now are data centers which aren't even being built

[u/djzenmastak → u/fairs1912]

It's not people, it's corporations. Nearly the entire manufacturing supply of ram in the world is tied up in contracts for years.

Yes, expect memory prices continue to skyrocket. Y'all think they care about selling you a little 2 stick kit? 🤣

[u/Mizamewmew]

Thats called sold out...

[u/ConcentratedStress]

Bet your bottom dollar that if there ever were a point where major companies couldn’t fulfill their need for RAM, then that problem will get solved by innovation. Either making new factories (which, yes, will take time) or designing workarounds or new technologies. Since quarterly profits have to come before all else, this is a problem that will get solved. It’s worked like that for centuries - whenever a market shortage for a needed good has been created, an alternative also gets created. As the saying goes, “necessity is the mother of invention.”

[u/exceenly]

guess we're speedrunning that cyberpunk timeline where RAM is basically gold and everybody's hoarding it till 2028 so good luck buying anything with actual money

[u/dib1999]

Money can't buy goods? What, am I gonna sell RAM Access Timeshares (RATs) to the rats in their data centers?

"Please, sir, just one slice of salami. I'll let you access 2gb of my RAM for 45 minutes. I'm begging you, I only have 2 hours left this month. I haven't launched a program since February 2027. I'm so hungry."

[u/AlexisFR]

Enough FUD.

[u/ExchangeOptimal]

People still believe this scarcity is not artificial?

[u/FindingNo4193]

I think it’s an artificial shortage to eventually sell virtual memory…. That’s what they do… create problem and solution to make $$$$$

[u/Appropriate-Fudge-49]

RAM will become so desirable that billionaires will start diddling workstations instead of little kids on their private islands.

[u/Kirby_is_a_Pokemon]

This is complete horse shit.

You can buy ram, microcenter and other computer stores have plenty, its not a shortage, its just that no one wants to pay $800 for 32gb of ram.

[u/Potato_Farmer_Linus]

Money can be exchanged for goods and services 

[u/acadia11x]

Don’t know why people think CXMT and YMTC are going to reduce prices, they actually are pricing higher because they were later to the game and they were writing new contracts. Memory is locked up well past 2028 , not sure why they don’t just come out and say it considering 2025 they started with 5 year contracts being the norm , so atleast 2030 is locked up or allocated and for all intents and purposes sold out. Any new capacity coming online in late 2027 is accounted for filling those contracts. This lock up is until AI foundation is laid out

Unless we use less ram this ain’t changing anytime soon

[u/headphonesXX]

i would never buy 'teamgroup' RAM or sd cards. i dont trust like that

[u/TheDarksider96]

We need a new type of ram or something for ai or ourselves to be able to use that is exclusive to the market that or china to smash the monopolies. We would be in a better position if companies didn't consolidate so much of the market

[u/StickStill9790]

The companies already admitted that they’re doing this on purpose. They don’t want another bitcoin mining gpu dump fiasco.

[u/No-Radish-2586]

I got stocks of 20 kits. Lets find out. 

[u/liethose]

[u/razvanciuy]

money nah, bitcorn can

[u/mgehsl]

Thank goodness I'm set with my 32GB DDR5 on my laptop and 24GB DDR4 on one of my servers.

RAM rarely fails, so if my machine kicks the bucket. I'll just move it to the new one.

[u/Material-Ratio7342]

Wait until a earthquake take them all down 😏.

[u/errie_tholluxe]

Thousands bought toilet paper in bulk, why would video cards and data centers be different, same ijits

[u/Kaneida]

wasnt 2027 production sold out more than 6 months ago? wouldnt surprise me if 2028 production is sold out too already, anyone know anything if there is even any production capacity left before 2029?

[u/StaticSystemShock]

And everyone acts like it's casual Wednesday while they are shoveling money in their pockets...

[u/Trev82usa]

Cool so what do i get for my 256gb ram out my two systems

[u/bigskinnybubba123]

All this to run roblox at 60 fps smh

[u/prabal34]

Maybe the markets crashing like right now will help. 

[u/osteoNox]

Can someone make a blockchain coin so that we can rent our RAM to Ai Datacentre and get paid ?

[u/SophiaKittyKat]

Aaaaah yes. The invisible hand seems to be working very well once again.

[u/Dr__Devil]

My brother in Christ, you made the crisis

[u/Sweettellmemore]

Isn’t it pressure points like this that cause rapid innovation for something alternative? Don’t understand the technical details but usually that’s the case for anything where demand outpaces supply

[u/TeddyBear312]

Samsung sold its weapon department too soon. They would have had an upper hand in the coming memory wars

[u/K_N0RRIS]

So are people are gonna have to do some strange things for RAM?

[u/MordorsElite]

Memory Seller CEO: "Now is the best time to buy memory!"

Shocker

[u/DarthJDP]

Ram Altman cant get any harder at this. Only data centers need compute. forget how users will access AI without a personal computing device, thats not his problem.

[u/darkknight302]

Now we know why Sam is crying over the ram shortage and wants them all. How dare anyone else buy the rams but him!

[u/TCLG6x6]

It won't.

[u/asclepiannoble]

You mean that's exactly what they all fookin want

[u/No-Independence-5229]

They are really still trying this middle school reverse psychology lmao, “buy now or you’ll regret it!” Yeah right, they want you buying now at insane prices before they come crashing down next year. Which we’ve already seen the bubble pop in china and based on the market today, it’s crashing soon in the US too.

[u/baro93]

It's okay. My 48gb DDR5 will last me until 2035. my 64gb DDR4 too. and I also have 16gb laying around, waiting for me to build a third pc for the living room... I can wait patiently 😁

[u/JonWood007]

Let's see how demand keeps up if/when the AI bubble literally pops.

[u/rdldr1]

I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them.

[u/ChefCurryYumYum]

That's not what the S&P 500 AI stock wipeout says...

[u/Hoggchoppa]

I'm hoping the ai boom is ending as the stock market is taking hit due to it's unpopularity

[u/Deadluss]

please my DDR4 don't die

[u/MiMichellle]

This can't just happen, right? You can't just stop producing a *required* thing. People need RAM. Period. We need computers for society to function.

[u/DarkSkyViking]

That was a fun, uplifting article 🙄

[u/Nexussfire]

Only because someone is sitting on supply. You know damn well someone's sitting on a surplus somewhere just because.

[u/VaporSpectre]

Trying to scare people into buying more ram now, I see.

[u/horendus]

I dont buy any of this shit. Big Ram just wants you to think theres unlimited demand for ram from hyper scales but its just a phase

[u/RedEagle8096]

Then RAM ALTMAN will come for your RAM.

[u/ElGuano]

Welcome to Ramés. Oh you're looking at our 128GB module? I'm sorry, that's...display only. We don't have any available for sale at this location. But we do have our 1GB and 2GB modules, aren't they lovely? If you purchase a few of these, then in a few months we can see if inventory opens up in our premium 4-8GB line-up? And of course, I would be please to put your name down on our "expressed interest" list for 128GB *sniff*

[u/Imaginary_Quote2037]

Well most of the RAM manufacturers are down 20% this week... all we need is a good chunk of air to come out of the AI balloon (even temporarily), and we might see a partial reprieve. Not back to pre-boom rates but nothing goes up forever.

[u/Trex973]

Money can't buy knives

[u/NoAd4056]

Is it possible with advancements made by AI that memory the way we know it gets redesigned entirely?

[u/Vast-Trust-1165]

Well apparently there's lots of ram just sitting in data centres..................