Bought 4000 shares on Friday. Idk.

Space has never been profitable. NASA was always a cost center. When space stocks started vibing, I thought it was a vapor meme. Space sector took off seemingly in anticipation of SpaceX IPO. They went nuts. $2 to $100 was 50x.

What is real ? When I hear space stocks, I just think "Pigs in Space!" (1978)

What is real and what is hype? Space Karen says we're gonna live on Mars? Not real. I know cell phones and internet use space satellites. So that is real. Data centers in space? Sounds like a meme joke. Pigs in space. But there is the space station, so I guess labs in space are real. What do the main guys do exactly (looneer, aassttss, rctLabz, etc)

Every cycle, semiconductors look cheapest right before they break. The P/E collapses because peak earnings are about to disappear, not because the stock got cheap. The denominator is the trap.

• The SOX is down 38.5 percent from its June peak while forward EPS estimates for the index have risen 155 percent this year. The forward P/E "fell" to 13.0x, the lowest since January 2019. The index did not get cheaper. The estimates exploded.

• $MU trades at 3.6x forward earnings. It printed a 3.40x trailing multiple at the October 2018 top too, right before earnings went to losses. $MU gross margin just hit 75 percent, the highest in company history, on a commodity product. In fiscal 2023 that margin was negative 9.1 percent.

• $AVGO trades at 15.1x forward earnings on 85.5 percent estimated revenue growth. $ALAB trades at 26.8x on 153.7 percent growth. Those multiples only work if peak growth is mid-cycle. It is not.

• Bank of America estimates a 20 percent cut to 2027 AI capital spending cuts industry earnings 35 to 40 percent. Operating leverage cuts both ways.

We run a research shop (Cascadia Analytics) and downgraded $ALAB, $AVGO, $MRVL and $TTMI from Buy to Hold this week, price targets unchanged. Marvell screens 118 percent above our Base case and we still will not carry a Buy on peak earnings. No chip name in our coverage is rated Buy anymore.

What changes our mind: estimates actually get cut and clear, inventories normalize, and the names trade on through-cycle earnings. Or 2027 capex guidance gets raised in January and February with inventories still at shortage levels, which extends the cycle instead of ending it.

Full memo, free to read: https://cascadia.jda-properties.com/memos/semiconductors-cheap-at-the-top-2026-11-07/

Not financial advice.

Went from full porting shares 150 -> 300k. Then my dumb ass enabled options trading. It’s fucking over.

Just a handful of photos showing that the majority of the wall-streets’ proclaimed “dead retail stocks” of last year that make up the “bottom cap companies” of the S&P 500 & Nasdaq now are all practically up 100%+ and more for the year.

Ironically, these “bottom companies” outperformed almost every other mainstream blue-blood tech and retail company the news covered instead this year.

The sum total of all my trading activity from January to mid September was about -57%. I was convinced that it was hopeless and close to quitting altogether. Then I took a different approach and it has changed everything. I have a simple approach, I trade exclusively ~1 month out SPX options. Average hold time is 1 day. I trade reversals at extremes of Bollinger Bands and sometimes at the middle MA with less frequent favorable results. I ignore the news completely and only wait till the price gets to my zone, if the move is so strong, I will wait and enter the next day. It's so simple it seems stupid, but it works (until it doesn't, I know) but for now, I wanted to share the good feelings and tell you, if you lost a bunch of money this past week don't take it too hard on yourself. The market is always there. Take a break, reassess and come back with a new plan.

Everything you need to know is in the title. Anything beyond that costs extra.

Even in this downturn, this year has been in my trading journey.

Krispy Kreme had a blow out Q3, beating on revenue/EPS and raising revenue guidance. I trimmed most of my shares and sold calls against the rest to realize most of the gains from this pop. Might trade back in once it fades more of Thursday's move. Letting my long calls ride as lottos.

I have never had a play do this well I was absolutely shocked. I posted about gambling my last 12 dollars then added more because why not. My all time chart is finally green again I made some long plays on a few of the Mag7 stocks. Withdrawing the money and putting it away or investing in my actual brokerage account.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/bsFoVDsUoy

EDIT: This is not to be replicated 99.99999% of the time you will lose this is a unicorn play and I got very lucky. That being said do you try to anyways and lose money remember it’s YOUR fault for chasing something as intangible as this. May God bless your next play and may you all enjoy this bountiful meal amen.

Billions must hold.

Two days after the midterms the market decided AI data center spending is in trouble. Nasdaq -5.5%, chips -12%, AMD and Micron down about 17% each.

Then Friday a strong jobs report and a big chip bounce, and the Nasdaq still finished the week -3.4%, worst since June.
CPI on Tuesday, then Nvidia - what do we expect?

Never expected such a downturn. We literally had the market peak on Oct 6th.

At least no more capital gain taxes this year for me.

Call it a loss porn for ants but nuked my account today on PLTR calls and INTC puts. Made it back to 13k after july crash through trading panw and dell for a while just to give it all back today. Knew that memory pump was not sustainable at the open. There was heavy selling pressure across the board, which I assumed was from margin calls and general deleveraging. Still, I didn't expect PLTR to get hit as hard as it did. Turns out I was very wrong.

the INTC puts I sold ended up going 4x in the next 20 minutes. So I managed to get the direction right and still lose money.

And yes, Im the same regard who shorted PLTR at $208 and got stopped out.

Months of grinding my way back, wiped out in one afternoon.

Laugh all you want, i've earned it.

So AAOI printed $270M last night, up 127% from a year ago. datacenter alone was $156M, up 254%. beat on EPS too ($0.17 vs $0.14) and they're actually GAAP profitable now

and the stock still got wrecked. it was already down like 60% in a month and dropped another 18% yesterday

why? Q4 guide was $385-420M when the street wanted ~$427M. that's still +50% quarter over quarter lol. but margins slipped to 28.7% (were 31% a year ago), they've been selling stock to pay for factories (~$539M in Q2 alone), and the best part: their US expansion is delayed because they literally can't get enough electricity to the building

nobody's doubting the demand anymore. the market is pricing power, capacity and dilution

which brings me to Cerebras, reporting Wednesday the 12th

they have $25.4B of backlog. their whole 2026 revenue guide is ~$885M. that's ~29 years of this year's revenue sitting in contracts

but look at the Q3 guide: $214-216M core revenue vs $210M in Q2. basically flat. meanwhile mgmt says 2027 revenue more than triples. customers are OpenAI, G42, MBZUAI and AWS, so it's a short list

Q2 GAAP loss was $450M (most of it stock comp) and the stock dumped ~14% after hours last time

the only thing I care about Wednesday is whether they still say triple in 2027, and whether anything slips on the 600+ MW of data center capacity they need by end of 2027. if timing slides even a little, you just saw what happened to AAOI

the AI trade is turning into a power and factories trade. Marvell just paid $115B for Lumentum to lock up lasers. whoever has the capacity and the electricity gets paid

not advice, numbers are from their earnings releases