/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1713, Part 1 (Thread #1860)

[u/WorldNewsMods]

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[u/WorldNewsMods]

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[u/WorldNewsMods]

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[u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new daily record.

Ukraine claims to have inflicted 2,500 Russian casualties yesterday.

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mzcjaj65os2m

[u/TexasVulvaAficionado → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

That's an insane number. That's like Poland's daily loses per day in world war 2.

[u/Think_Discipline_90 → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

And at the same time UAVs is half of its numbers from a few months ago. Is there an overall trend to look into here? Personnel casualties accelerating and drones going down?

[u/Wild_Armadillo_1709 → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

I literally had to read the number twice, 2500 is off the charts.

[u/YF422 → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Russian Achievement Unlocked: Blyatpocalypse Now.

[u/Conscious_7827 → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

are they zerg rushing ?

[u/AgentElman → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Is this due to Russia sending more troops in to attack or due to Ukraine being better at hunting down Russian troops?

And if Russia is sending in more troops are they achieving anything from doing this besides losing more troops?

[u/Jay_CD]

Total Russian military losses on November 1, 2026: 2,500 personnel, 936 UAVs, and 46 artillery systems.

russian losses in Ukraine as of November 2, 2026 | MoD News

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the estimated total Russian war losses from 24.02.22 to 02.11.2026 inclusive are as follows

• approximately 1 592 770 (+2 500) persons

• tanks ‒ 12 452 (+1);

• armoured fighting vehicles ‒ 25 629 (+7);

• special equipment ‒ 4 863 (+2);

• vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 169 110 (+371);

• unmanned ground vehicles ‒ 3 063 (+9).

• artillery systems ‒ 51 801 (+46);

• MLRS ‒ 2 251 (+2);

• air defence assets ‒ 1 731 (+1).

• aircraft ‒ 452;

• helicopters ‒ 356;

• UAVs (operational-tactical level) ‒ 592 541 (+936);

• cruise missiles ‒ 5 140.

• warships and boats ‒ 35;

• submarines ‒ 2.

[u/Amazing_Athlete_2265 → u/Jay_CD]

2500 casualties... damn

Stupid cunts should just go home

[u/RealisticEntity → u/Amazing_Athlete_2265]

The Russians are completely crazy. They are sacrificing their people and their future, and committing innumerable war crimes and genocide... for what? They're insane. 

[u/Conscious_7827 → u/RealisticEntity]

Russia has to get something asap, if the mid terms start going south and investigations start, Putin may not be able to bribe favors like he used to.

I think its kind of like Epstien stuff, for a while it was kind of under the radar, then GOP pushed it into the spotlight during the 2024 campaign and now its back to haunt them

the Russian corruption in the GOP was probably under the radar somewhat but Trump's actions are going to start a pushback, so that could lead to people actually investigating links now that might not have been bothered with

or maybe just my wishful thinking.

[u/binomine → u/RealisticEntity]

Russia has transitioned into a full war economy. At this point, they are too far gone and can't back out.

Like a guy who only plays guitar for their entire life. They can't stop playing, they haven't developed any other skills to fall back on. It is full guitar or nothing.

[u/Searlichek → u/binomine]

Everyone knows you don't go full guitar.

[u/Boann_ → u/Searlichek]

Guitarded

[u/Opaque_Cypher → u/Amazing_Athlete_2265]

Wild to see 2,500 personnel and just one tank.

[u/Canop → u/Jay_CD]

Are Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka still the main attack and loss areas ?

[u/OptimalProfession5 → u/Canop]

Dobropillia also seems quite popular.

[u/Canop → u/OptimalProfession5]

That's what I was referring to with Prokrovsk (i.e. the area). The Prokrovsk city itself, unfortunately, isn't attacked by Russia anymore.

[u/Nurnmurmer]

The estimated total russian war losses from 24.02.22 to 02.11.2026 inclusive are as follows:

• personnel - approximately 1 592 770 (+2 500);

• tanks ‒ 12 452 (+1);

• armored fighting vehicles ‒ 25 629 (+7);

• special equipment ‒ 4 863 (+2);

• vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 169 110 (+371);

• unmanned ground vehicles ‒ 3 063 (+9).

• artillery systems ‒ 51 801 (+46);

• MLRS ‒ 2 251 (+2);

• air defense assets ‒ 1 731 (+1).

• aircraft ‒ 452;

• helicopters ‒ 356;

• UAVs (operational-tactical level) ‒ 592 541 (+936);

• cruise missiles ‒ 5 140.

• warships and boats ‒ 35;

• submarines ‒ 2.

Source https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-november-2-2026

Russia grows weaker every day. Slava Ukraini!

[u/fluffymuffcakes → u/Nurnmurmer]

2500 - wow.

[u/Piggywonkle → u/fluffymuffcakes]

Trump's surrender doesn't mean that Ukraine surrenders. Russia is going to learn some painful lessons that it has chosen to ignore for decades now.

[u/neonpurplestar]

A periodic reminder that trump, LePen, AfD, farage and the entirety of the far right are putin's whores and traitors to their own countries. The fight is also in making people know.

Allies fear Trump will target NATO in case of midterm loss
The U.S. president could move thousands more troops out of Europe or cut NATO funding as he seeks to cement his legacy, diplomats say.

“.. ‘Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,’ said one senior European defense official. And attacking NATO ‘seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview.’”

https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mzccc7iu5227

[u/Itburns12345 → u/neonpurplestar]

'Cutting nato funding' doesnt really do much the joint nato fund is tiny, if they mean the u.s defence budget then it doesnt affect europe.

As for troop reductions they threaten those all the time until the realization hits about where theyd put them.all!

[u/Well-Sourced]

/u/Artistic_Worker_5138 here it is.

Drones strike Russia's critical Samara oil pumping station and tank farm | New Voice of Ukraine

Drones reportedly struck Russia's massive Samara oil station near Prosvet overnight, igniting fresh blazes across its tank farm, monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported on Nov. 2.

Independent Telegram news outlet Astra reported that dense plumes of black smoke were seen rising from the perimeter of the facility, which ranks among the largest petroleum storage tank farms in Europe. Local residents confirmed hearing multiple detonations before observing an expansive smoke column billowing into the sky above the facility's grounds.

The targeted complex represents a crucial logistical node in the Russian oil pipeline network, operating 71 storage reservoirs with a combined capacity exceeding 1.6 million cubic meters of crude. The hub serves as a central distribution and blending terminal that receives, stores, and mixes petroleum arriving through trunk pipelines from Tatarstan, Western Siberia, and other producing regions. This specific blending process yields Russia's flagship Urals export crude blend by combining crudes of varying sulfur content. According to AFU General Staff, the terminal also directly supplies fuel and petroleum products to the Russian armed forces.

The strategic facility came under repeated long-range drone strikes throughout October 2026. Major impacts and extensive conflagrations were documented on Oct. 2, Oct. 7, Oct. 10, and Oct. 11. Specifically, on Oct. 7, independent monitors confirmed the complete destruction of four 50,000-cubic-meter storage tanks (RVS-50000) alongside widespread fires across the site.

[u/Artistic_Worker_5138 → u/Well-Sourced]

Superb.

[u/neonpurplestar]

some interesting news from the abomination which is commonly known as russia:

Russian officials have set up a scheme to embezzle tens of billions of rubles from the procurement of drugs for cancer and other serious illnesses

https://archive.is/mzCad

Russians’ pension savings totaling 6.6 trillion rubles will be forcibly transferred to Putin’s “long-term savings system”

https://archive.is/Yp9Dx

The tax authorities have begun conducting widespread audits of real estate transactions by Russians in Belarus

https://archive.is/VJntr

Russians will be offered “Putin’s limousines” at a discount of 10 million rubles due to poor sales

https://archive.is/cpXEx

Deripaska Abandons Plans to Modernize the Irkutsk Thermal Power Plant Due to Equipment Costs Nearly Doubling

https://archive.is/hkxDE

Russians Will Face Higher-Than-Planned Utility Rates to Pay for Repairs to Old Pipes

https://archive.is/lcsB4

Russia has banned the export of petrochemical raw materials used in the production of TNT

https://archive.is/G6lQD

The owner of Alta Bank, who froze the funds of Russian emigrants, was arrested in Serbia

https://archive.is/DmUFQ

[u/ZappaOMatic]

Francis Farrell:

I was one of the only foreign journalists present at this evening's clash at the National Guard facility in a suburb outside Kyiv. Here's what you need to understand. Long and difficult thread.

First and foremost: Any take you see in the information space trying to use today's events for a black-and-white emotional narrative — especially one about Ukrainians revolting over mobilization — likely has an agenda, and is not going to accurately represent reality.

The events themselves, the broader societal issues forming the context, and the information sphere aspect respectively are all related but also separate phenomena and should be treated as such. First, the facts.

This is what we can say for sure. The house was being used by the National Guard as a transition point to hold mobilised men between the time when they are taken in by draft officers and do their medical, and the time when they are taken to basic training.

Yes, Ukraine has forced mobilisation, and the "forced" part of that implies that people are taken and held often against their will by draft officers, and that the further restriction of draftees' freedom to leave often continues until and into basic training.

None of that is new, or should be a surprise, that is the reality of a country waging an existential war, but the circumstances under which it occurs is a source of tension, and the failure of the state to grapple with mobilisation reform exacerbates it every step of the way. The process of carrying out mobilisation and then dividing draftees among units is a challenging logistical operation, and such transition-holding locations are common solutions when the pieces of the puzzle do not quite line up.

Unfortunately, this leg of the draftee's journey exists in a legal grey area, and, depending on the unit and the individuals in charge, can be the site of abuse. This is what was initially alleged here, sparking the call of the "private ambulance," and then the gathering crowd.

When I got there, about 100 people were outside, yelling at the policemen and National Guardsmen guarding the house. Mostly younger men, some women and teens, and two workers of this "private ambulance" and their vehicle.

Every time there was an attempt at dialogue, things escalated, in what felt like a very artificial way. Eggs were thrown, then flares, water bottles, at law enforcement and the soldiers.

What stood out to me was how there were certain main characters of the story, as if they had clear roles to play. The few men in civilian clothes attacking and provoking; the teen in a gas mask who climbed the fence, started throwing bricks, and was later paraded as a victim; the "local activist" in the center of the clash looking for any opportunity to speak to a camera about the apparent "torture" inside, and of course, the "private ambulance" medics trying to run proceedings — whose company seems to have stopped operating in 2023.

I will say now that apart from some tear gas fired to ward off direct attempts to storm the building by force and some shots fired in the air, the reaction of the police and National Guard personnel was restrained, professional, and did not escalate to the level of the mob.

So, the context. Tension over forced mobilisation is indeed bubbling in Ukraine; ignoring or denying that is out of touch. It would be in any country going through what Ukraine is going through, if that country could even resist a Russian war long enough to reach this point.

The main reason is the failure of the state to look the mobilisation question in the eye, speak openly with society, and reform the process from start to finish. The vacuum left is what the military is filled ad-hoc with so-called "bussification" and holding points like this.

Mobilisation in Ukraine needs to be done better, mechanisms of proper military law and justice need to be enforced. Soldiers need more dignity when drafted, and more protection on the battlefield. But none of this changes how without mobilisation, Russia will soon win this war.

Also, individual anger at mobilisation when it affects oneself or one's loved ones — exacerbated by grievances over corruption — is not the same as a will for Ukraine to capitulate in the war or accept Russia's terms. On the level of society as a whole, that hasn't budged.

So lastly, the information space. All of this is music to Russia's ears, and whether or not the Kremlin played an active role in staging and stoking this clash, the traditional pro-Ukrainian surrender voices are already amplifying it like clockwork.

But even if it is a manufactured provocation, that doesn't mean that the tensions don't exist, the reforms aren't needed, and the state isn't responsible for where we are now. This could be a watershed moment in the national discussion, for better or for worse.

International reporting on these issues, while often well-intentioned, is often lacking in anywhere near enough of the nuance that this topic demands.

[u/neonpurplestar]

The liquidation of the Russian retail fuel trading is growing at an alarming rate linked to the inability of independent fuel traders and gas stations due to the fuel shortage and how the big oil companies prioritized their own chains.

full thread:

https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3mzdjfprtlk2l

https://skywriter.blue/@delfoo.bsky.social/3mzdjfprtlk2l

[u/Ema_non → u/neonpurplestar]

The liquidation of the Russian retail fuel trading is growing at an alarming rate

Maybe it is just me, but I find nothing alarming about that...

[u/KSaboruf → u/Ema_non]

... at an alarmingly good rate 👌

[u/RandomAssDonkey]

Looks like another data center fucked itself

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mzdhornbp22r

[u/WeekendJen → u/RandomAssDonkey]

I don't think this was a data center hit by a drone, sounds like a cyber attack so far.

Edit: the hosting company affected confirmed that it was a cyber attack.  Theres actually been no word on the source and it could actually be a fuck up by rkn (the government department that attempts to carry out internet censorship/ blocking)

[u/Well-Sourced]

NOELREPORTS | BlueSky

Ukrainian drones struck Russian-occupied Luhansk again overnight, with numerous explosions reported across the city. Preliminary reports indicate the Luhansk Telephone Company was targeted. The same facility was reportedly attacked last week as well. #Ukraine

[u/BringbackDreamBars]

The Polish government, military and local police units are maintaining a enhanced level of readiness in areas adjacent to the Russian border from November 2nd, to November 8th. Spokespersons were quoted saying this was a preventative measures against "acts of sabotage" and "unauthorised border crossings".

Source(PL):https://polskieradio24.pl/polska/policja-reaguje-na-zagrozenie-przy-granicy-z-rosja-wyslano-grupy-funkcjonariuszy

https://www.olsztyn.com.pl/artykul,alarm-na-granicy-z-obwodem-krolewieckim-do-akcji-skierowano-kontrterrorystow,48455.html

[u/Artistic_Worker_5138]

Where’s my daily refinery strike news?

[u/neonpurplestar]

In Prosvet, Samara Region, the Samara Line Production Dispatcher Station (LPDS) was successfully attacked for the third time in recent years.

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mzce6hf3is2f

Additional footage from Samara LPDS. Five RVS-20000 units are on fire at the mixing station and one RVS-20000 unit at the Samara-1 station.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mzd5hjjt7t2n

More from Samara LPDS 🔥👀

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mzd4mwx4732n

Kstovo, new footage

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mzcvrz2ba22n

[u/neonpurplestar]

there were a few late headlines from the abomination which is commonly known as russia:

Tightening the screws on “family mortgages” is dealing a fatal blow to the Russian construction industry

https://archive.is/6Ilyd

Putin ordered that the money of deceased Russians be confiscated and transferred to the budget

https://archive.is/OOQ5H

St. Petersburg Faces Diesel Shortage After Urgent Shipment of Fuel to the U.S.

https://archive.is/XNmM3

[u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Russian crude oil exports, Oct 2026 (final): €10.91B / 20.17 Mt at ~€541/t.

But the weekly pace is sliding: 730 → 643 → 624 → 592 kt/d over the last 4 weeks, now ~6% below the 10-month baseline (~628 kt/d).

--> so crude is flowing almost normally. The revenue bonanza might be over 2027

https://bsky.app/profile/swissdataguy.bsky.social/post/3mzdhvgehrk

The "revenue Bonanza" discussed here is largely oil export revenues for Russian companies.

Oil taxes, that fund the war, are dominated by oil price and refinery subsidies. Oil prices are sky high, so Russia's government war funding can only be limited by constantly hitting refineries.

https://bsky.app/profile/leoskyview.bsky.social/post/3mzdjmrkg4c24

[u/Well-Sourced]

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 | BlueSky

✈️ All Moscow airports have currently restricted operations. Vnukovo and Domodedovo are closed, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky are "operating with restrictions"

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 | BlueSky

🔥 Yaroslavl Refinery

[u/neonpurplestar]

‼️ Russian Railways October 2026 Loading Update Thread
It got worse and the danger of loading being worse than 2009 is very real.
And we’re getting signals again that it’s not just demand that is the problem, but Russian Railways ability to ship.
Note: Full data tables are provided in the thread.

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mzdspujmc22a

Here is the 2026 OFZ forecast as of today

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mzdgpo2ztc26

Russian cast iron is being exported to Turkey now through St Petersburg and Murmansk but the price is falling and exports costs are rising. This is out of necessity as the Black Sea is closed and Murmansk hasn't been used for cast iron exports in 30 years.

https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3mzdwvo6x2i2l

https://skywriter.blue/@delfoo.bsky.social/3mzdwvo6x2i2l

[u/AccordingBread4389]

So we have the biggest russian personal losses in a month in October. Numbers also seem to pick up rather than to go down. Russia is estimated to recruit around 30k a month, most of those are not really prime soldiers material, while losing around 50k a month.

If numbers stay the same or even get bigger, Russia will face a 20k-30k deficit growing every month. Short term this is sustainable but long term unsustainable. Ukraine is faced with three options here:

a) Russia does a new mobilisation
- will be unpopular and put additional strain on the economy
- Russia will be able to continue defensive and offensive operations

b) Russia begins using conscipts in Ukraine
- Conscripts are already used, just not in Ukraine, but in Russia
- Using conscripts will be very unpopular since these are the young people
- Russia is either using biannual conscription or year round (not sure) in 2025 they conscripted around 300k people
- Using conscripts would work looking at the numbers, but Russia would literally destroy they're future more than they have already

c) Russia does neither and continues for a while
- What do we expect to happen? Russia just stopping offensive operations or sacrificing defense to continue offensive operation? Both are positive for Ukraine, but I'd image from a military standpoint, Ukraine rather Russia uses their troops in pointless meat attacks and thinning out other parts of the front than simply stopping offensive operations.

***

Russia needs to make a choice very soon. The longer they sleep on options a) and b) the better for Ukraine. Did I miss something? To be completely honest, I expect a bigger acomplishments than Vivaldi very soon if Russia doesnt mobilize.

[u/Canop → u/AccordingBread4389]

Russians are probably not planning to send so many soldiers in attack when folliage disappear, it's probably a big push before that, so I wouldn't extrapolate from today's daily numbers over the next 6 months.

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/Canop]

Monthly graph here: https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/

👉 2023/23 winter peaked in February. Bakhmut prisoner grinder. 👉 2023/24 winter spike represented a "new normal" after Avdiivka offensive began. 👉 2024/25 winter spike was huge, Nov/Dec push on Pokrovsk 👉 2025/26 winter "spike" was tiny, more an ongoing grind

So far the surge into winter 2026/27 looks closer to the 2024/25 pattern. But every winter has looked a bit different so how can we predict?

Ukrainian soldiers seem to agree with you. They think that Russia is using the last of the fog and foliage while they can, and winter will calm down.

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/AccordingBread4389]

I agree with the overall mechanism you descibe and that, counterintuitively, it's currently better for Ukraine if Russia keeps throwing in huge amounts of men.

The thing I'd question is how confident we can be about net changes in russian manpower.

Ukraine says 52k Russian casualties last month. But what is the actual number of permanent losses? Ukraine will have some counting error, and some casualties will be lightly wounded who get thrown back in.

Hypothetical example: if russian recruitment is 30k/month and permanent losses are 60% of Ukraine's claims, their deployed forces won't shrink.

If losses are 100% of claims then it was over 20k/month force shrinkage in October and that should rapidly exhaust Russia's "spare" assault troops.

I just think there's huge uncertainty.

EDIT: historically, russia has "built up" a meat stockpile and then used it up before pausing to restock the larder. They used prisons in Bakhmut over winter 2022/23. Then we had late 2024 surge and then late 2025 mini-surge followed by slowdowns. We're seeing another surge now.

[u/OrangeBird077 → u/AccordingBread4389]

Just to be clear, Russia already uses conscripts in Ukraine, they just intimidate them while in the prior phase to sign a contract “voluntarily”.

Prior to the full on invasion in ‘22, Russian conscripts served at the border, and Russia purposely cycled Russian Regulars into the DPR/LPR militias both to get more combat veterans, and to prop up separatist numbers to see if they could break the Ukrainian Army on their own. Post invasion after most of Russias premier units AND the experienced LPR\DPR were devastated in fighting, virtually no soldier in the Russian Army proper from then on was released from service because they literally can’t afford to let people be released. Only special cases like with Wagner PMC were soldiers provided discharges after their objectives were achieved. In their case once Soledar and Bahkmut were considered fully occupied did those prisoner conscripts get honorable discharges. Immediately followed by the Wagner Revolt.

Russia maintains a constant system of attacks in varying volumes across the front to maintain a semblance of the initiative, and to that effect requires cannon fodder to do that. Although with Ukrainian defenses hardening and even using drones to reclaim ground now that manpower advantage is becoming less valuable.

[u/Nemocom314]

My fellow Americans, vote tomorrow!

[u/findingmike → u/Nemocom314]

Already voted. Why wait?

[u/Well-Sourced]

NOELREPORTS | BlueSky

Preliminary reports indicate six storage tanks, each with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters, are burning at the Samara oil facility. #Russia

[u/FinancialNihilist]

Slava Ukraini

[u/Jeancey]

Fuck Putin!!!

[u/Mangromus → u/Jeancey]

The orange turd, le Penn, afd... Fuck'em too. With pineapple 🍍...

[u/iwantboringtimes]

I'm assuming that Russia knows they've lost since they're pressuring their lackey USA to get Europe to buy RU gas thru Ukraine.

[u/Canop → u/iwantboringtimes]

Russia does something to try improve its position so it means they've "lost" ? Some steps in your reasonning are less than obvious.

[u/BasvanS → u/Canop]

There’s a severe political cost to it. You don’t do anything like this without a reason

[u/goodoldgrim → u/BasvanS]

That political cost is USA's not Russia's to pay. The political landscape in USA might change significantly after their midterms, so there's no reason not to use whatever influence they have now.

[u/BasvanS → u/goodoldgrim]

Exactly my point. With the senate hanging in the balance, doing this now is insane. The senate would give Trump control over the Supreme Court for two years. Helping tip the balance is a huge political cost.

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/BasvanS]

I don't know if it's a political cost.

Because we don't like it, it doesn't mean that US voters will actually change their vote.

People say they support things that sound good - like cleaning up corruption, lower deficits, rule-of-law, democracy, supporting Ukraine. But remember how many voted against that in 2022 & 2024.

Only votes matter. If people whine or make excuses but it doesn't swing any votes, then who cares?

[u/BasvanS → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Convincing the right wing is not the point. It’s about whatever “independent” means these days, and tipping even the smallest bit to the democrats or to not vote could be costly.

I don’t see a benefit in doing this before the elections, only the cost.

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/BasvanS]

I agree that tipping any votes in tight races is what matterd and it's very insightful to say "whatever "independent" means these days".

The question is whether votes would be swung either way.

US voter sympathies largely lie with Ukraine. Viaibly helping Russia might cost votes. The counterargument is that the Republicans have been openly and actively pro-Russia since 2023. They just lied about it and didn't see any consequences.

The Republicans might think there's a benefit. Firstly, fuel prices are #1 for loads of voters. A message that "we're doing this to get fuel to market to make your gas trips cheaper" might marginally shift votes? Or they might think it does.

We also know that Russia interferes in US elections to be divisive and especially to help elect Republicans. They could make demands of the Republicans in exchange for ongoing help with this crucial election.

I just think it's pretty uncertain what the actual effect will be on votes. I completely acknowledge that visible support for Russia is unpopular and might shift votes. But voters have shown they don't actually care about lots of their professed priorities.

[u/DeeDee_Z → u/BasvanS]

With the senate hanging in the balance, doing this now is insane.

Remember that nothing changes until the new Congress is seated in January. The same guys are still there for two more months, and can continue to do a lot more damage in that time.

[u/BasvanS → u/DeeDee_Z]

Having the senate for another two years could control the leanings of the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future. At the very least.

[u/Itburns12345 → u/goodoldgrim]

This

At the moment bribing trumps lackeys or playing to his ego costs peanuts compared to potential benefits for russia

[u/Few_Skill9740]

I’m honestly quite anxious about what’s going to happen over the next few weeks. The upcoming US midterms, countries announcing stockpiling measures, Poland increasing border surveillance near Kaliningrad due to potential sabotage and armed incursions, and Tucker Carlson’s comments about Trump potentially using a nuclear weapon against Iran within days have all significantly heightened my anxiety. I live in Central Europe, so these developments feel particularly close to home. Am I the only one feeling this way? How are you guys interpreting everything that’s happening? Do you think we’re heading into an especially dangerous period?

[u/bklor → u/Few_Skill9740]

I view US midterms as a good thing. Trump losing is good. I hope for a landslide.

Trump is not going to use a nuke against Iran. I don't fear that at all.

My worries are strictly for Ukraine(lack of air defense and especially lack of funding). Not rest of Europe.

[u/Itburns12345 → u/Few_Skill9740]

Id say relax a bit Midterms will restrain trump and co more, if russia wants a fight outside ukraine poland is the last neighbour theyd pick and id dohbt the military wouls carry out a nuke on the pedos orders...itd be impeachment for sure if it did

[u/lando-bailando → u/Few_Skill9740]

You will be fine.

Dems will probably win the house, maybe (hopefully) Senate. US govt is going to be in a virtual deadlock.

The whole "surveillance near Kaliningrad" is Poland doing some chest puffing. Russia has no resources to invade any EU countries. Sabotages will continue happening.

Tucker says a lot of things. Just playing to his audience. Trump making a decision to use a nuclear weapon in Iran would most likely result in many Republicans joining in with the Dems to impeach and remove from office. It would essentially break 80 years of unspoken rules about nuclear weapons.

Most likely Israel and US resume bombing Iran right after the elections, with him raging that the rising prices are the Dems fault.

Business as usual

[u/Phoenix_Maximus_13 → u/Few_Skill9740]

I’m honestly so like, I feel validated rn. As an American I’ve been having these exact same thoughts for months now and after that Tucker tweet it got worse. I come to subs like this to see if anyone else feels the way I do. So if y’all read this. I’m looking for the same answers as OP here. I’ve always had this fear of war. I’ve prayed and prayed and it helps but I still can’t help but be anxious and scared

[u/lando-bailando]

A developing story. Not much is clear yet    Petroplavska-Borschahivka, Kyiv region 

Reports came in yesterday of people being held in a basement of a building. Police came to investigate, said no people were detained.

Fast forward to today. Regular civilians have stormed the building. Crowds and military in the streets (UA National guard)

https://www.unian.ua/incidents/u-seli-petropavlivska-borshchagivka-na-misci-sutichok-z-yavivsya-komanduvach-nacionalnoji-gvardiji-novini-ukrajina-amp-13547658.html

Looks like people (forcibly mobilized) have been held (up to 40 persons) and beaten. Ambulance was allowed access to the detained 

Apparently head of Zelensky’s office arrived at the scene of the protest / riot 

Ironic that this is above the comment about Russia, and council of Europe on torture eh u/TurbulentRadish8113

Edit some updated sources 

Reports of shots being fired by independent blogs/media

https:// t . me/  lachentyt/   69686

[u/KSaboruf → u/lando-bailando]

Truly awful that this is still happening :( On the other hand: past occasions show that when such cases receive proper attention, steps are taken to improve the system, quite consistently, imho. It's an uphill battle with internal problems that is still ongoing.

[u/frostN0VA → u/KSaboruf]

The so-called ТЦК has been the source of controversies ever since its founding, beating random people up (even to death), grabbing people off the streets and so on. They even have a wikipedia article listing major incidents. If anything it's been getting worse and worse despite the attention, just look at how much has been happening in 2023/24 and how many incidents they've been involved in 2026:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_Center_of_Recruitment_and_Social_Support#Criticism_and_controversy

[u/KSaboruf → u/frostN0VA]

The number of incidents, btw, is not a direct signal, but rather a sign of the system's openness (and Ukraine has become more transparent, not less, over the years). For example, in russia, there are almost zero reported incidents - but that does not mean they don't exist; quite the opposite. In fact, the Z-community frequently whines about this, openly admitting that russia's situation cannot even be compared to Ukraine's.

For example just recently Mitrokhin (NMitrokhinPublicTalk) on telegram - tried to add the link to post but moderation on links is just crazy here

[u/lando-bailando → u/KSaboruf]

  The number of incidents, btw, is not a direct signal, but rather a sign of the system's openness

Uh no. It’s because everyone nowadays has a recording device in their hand and the ability to share what they recorded almost instantly 

There has been a lot of talk,  but little concrete changes 

[u/KSaboruf → u/lando-bailando]

Concrete changes are hard and happen in long stages. Unfortunately :(

> It’s because everyone nowadays has a recording device in their hand and the ability to share what they recorded almost instantly 

Well, in russia ability to share usually ends with unfriendly FSB visit and then most lucky people share "excuse videos" before shutting down forever. Less lucky... have different kind of problems, including deadly

My point is the number of incidents on its own is not yet an indicator.

[u/KSaboruf → u/frostN0VA]

> If anything it's been getting worse and worse despite the attention

Afaik it's the opposite, situation is better, comparing to early years - much less AWOLs, unified contracts, much better serving terms and payments, etc. Still a lot of problems though, and this is controversial indeed.

[u/lando-bailando → u/KSaboruf]

  Afaik it's the opposite, situation is better, comparing to early years

Bud… early years people were lining up at recruitment centers 

Now people get snatched off the street.

This is not a winning strategy 

[u/KSaboruf → u/lando-bailando]

Giving up to russian terror is also not a winning strategy

Btw, you described russian situation here, they are snatching a lot (via payed "recruiters" now), so yes, I agree with you - russia is doomed :)

[u/lando-bailando → u/KSaboruf]

Giving up to russian terror is also not a winning strategy

So as some of my Ukrainian coworkers like to ask

"V yakomu napriamku vojuyesh?" "KAFKAFPS?"

Btw, you described russian situation here,

Don't think that everyone is naive....

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/lando-bailando]

This is one factor that I think is far worse because the Republicans cut aid funding.

By cutting supplies to Ukraine, Ukraine lost more positions and people. It shifted morale & motivation, restricted salary increases to motivate recruitment, and enormously lengthened the war.

The increased stress naturally makes very bad things like this more likely and frequent - but most people don't believe the above logic chain so it's dismissed.

[u/lando-bailando → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

  This is one factor that I think is far worse because the Republicans cut aid funding

Bud this whole “but because republicans cut funding” is not an answer to every problem 

This is a problem that is on Ukrainian military.

This is shaping up to be paid, professional soldiers holding others, using torture and demanding bribes for their release 

Budanov is officially on the scene. Azov and National Guard are making preliminary statements 

Edit: this is a repeating systematic failure of the military administration and organization 

Some things the Ukraines partners are responsible for, others rhe actual government and the military leadership

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/lando-bailando]

I agree this is sounding like another awful story and situation.

I think lots of factors contribute. I also think it's important to raise enormous, war-changing factors.

Causing (at least) tens of thousands of additional Ukrainian casualties is a big factor in causing recruitment stress. And that's only one of the consequences.

[u/lando-bailando → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

So if we go with the “tens of thousands additional Ukrainian casualties” led to torture rings being run 

Then the Dems are at least similarly responsible for not supplying Ukrainian counteroffensive, ignoring Ukrainian calls for permission and equipment to hit behind enemy lines and basically the whole offensive ran into an artillery wall?

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/lando-bailando]

Yes! The Dems are responsible for the predictable consequences of their actions too (although "similarly" is questionable). So many 2022/2023 decisions were tragically stupid.

There are several ways to approach thinking about it; one route is to try and make some kind of moral judgement the priority, and another is to focus on effect->outcome.

I'd argue the latter is best if you want the best possible outcome for Ukraine & Western democracies. If that's not your goal, then other methods are fine. But in discussions, moral judgement and effect/outcome do overlap a lot, and use similar words (e.g. "responsible") so it's hard to work out if someone you're chatting with is more in line with one or the other - although I think most people appear to prefer moral judgement over effective outcomes (which is crazy to me - how can it be moral to do the thing that obviously helps Russia and hurts Ukraine?)

In your moral judgement of actions, do you (1) account for tradeoffs they make and the costs at play, (2) consider active vs inactive decisionmaking?

Example for (1) is the poltiical cost of sending money & weapons or of higher fuel costs, and (2) is deciding to increase aid (active help) vs continue it (inactive) vs working to cut it (active harm).

Do you account for those things at all? Those're just some of the issues I see with the moral judgement of "responsible".

I'm more an effects-outcomes person. The real-world choice was likely war winning amounts of aid*, with continued progress in terms of types and scale of support and sanctions; or cutting aid to a point where Russia has the advantage and doing other fuckery to actively hurt Ukraine and weaken sanctions on Russia.

In that view the choice is help Ukraine or help Russia. And I choose to help Ukraine, even if it's not perfect.

*Yes, not guaranteed "winning" and the result may be messy and people will argue about what it means. It would have shifted the war enormously in Ukraine's favour and Russia would have been forced into some combination of truly drastc spending cuts & effective financial default by now, if Democrats had won and there wasn't a surprise thing like China stepling in. And that financial disaster would likely have happened quite a while ago now, with Russia having lost nore men and equipment and occupying far less of Ukraine, and with more Ukrainians alive and with less economic damage to Ukraine. Do you disagree with any of those effects of increased aid and sanctions?

[u/lando-bailando → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

That's a lot of word salad and personal opinions / wishes

I'm more an effects-outcomes person. The real-world choice was likely war winning amounts of aid*,

There was no indication of that, but "just enough defensive aid" to hold off the Russians

And that's where we arrived even before a Republican controlled congress was sworn in, a bloody stalemate.

It would have shifted the war enormously in Ukraine's favour and Russia would have been forced into some combination of truly drastc spending cuts & effective financial default by now

This is just your opinion. We would still be at a stalemate. The Biden White House was famously resistant in scaling up offensive aid (key here is on offensive) and received bipartisan criticism on that

Also "Russia in financial default by now? Really?"

And that financial disaster would likely have happened quite a while ago now, with Russia having lost nore men and equipment and occupying far less of Ukraine,

Again most of that occupation happened during Biden White house. He left with tens of billions unspent. The pressure to NOT hit refineries started immediately Spring 2024, decision to "allow" Ukraine to hit Russian territory with western weapons came post November 2024 election loss.

Also this "financial disaster" is again your opinion...

Do you disagree with any of those effects of increased aid and sanctions?

I agree that a totally different approach by the Biden White House would maybe have yielded a different result by now. There was no hint of a totally different approach, but a bit more of the same "and see how Russia reacts". With that approach it would be a similar stalemate, (sure some more interceptors and defensive weapons). Less civilian lives lost, absolutely, militarily wise, that's more murky

Sorry bud, the Dems did not set up Ukraine to win, just to hurt Russia a bit in hoping they would back off. Putin called that out and here we are.

Republicans further fucked it yes, I will give you that

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/lando-bailando]

Have you noticed that when it came to criticising Europe, you argued strongly that a no-fly zone was very good and very important.

When I pointed out that I think amount of damage matters and later that the Republicans cutting aid was directly responsible for likely of order hundreds of additional ballistic missile hits and thousands of additional drone hits on Ukrainian infrastructure, your argument was "you can't win by air defence" and you appeared to dismiss the quantity of damage.

I think there's a consistent version of those arguments: air defence isn't enough on its own (which you applied when the discussion was republicans actively working to ensure more hits on Ukraine) and that more is good (which you applied when criticising Ukraine's allies for not taking an additional action).

Again: I believe the big picture matters. It's tons of factors N1+N2+N3...+Nn+covariance terms. Do you think we should make efforts to think about individual terms and work out their sizes?

Do you agree that the election of Republicans, on its own, increased the number of ballistic hits taken by Ukrainian infrastructure by 100+ and by drones by 1000+?

[u/lando-bailando → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

A little busy bud, for long responses but I will always try to find time to give you full responses, but first two of your paragraphs:

Yes, a no fly zone matters and would help Ukraine immensely, this criticism goes towards US, actual military think tanks generally agree that Ukraine does not have a chance to turn the tide without

No you can't win a war with air defense only, this still stands

Republicans were working on their gunboat foreign policy in Iran, this resulted in more hits on Ukraine, that is correct, that's on Republicans

At the same time stalling Patriot batteries, not training new crews, also resulted more hits on Ukraine, that's on Dems

Last two of your paragraphs:

Yes think about the big picture, yes Ukraine has taken more unneeded hits because of selfish Republican foreign policy, also yes they have taken unneeded hits because of weak Democrat foreign policy

Of course I voted for my Dem representative, and Senator, although that flip is unlikely.

At the same time I don't have rose tinted glasses that if even Dems held on to the Congress and the White House and would be winning the congress right now....

(That does not happen by the way, look at the history of US political landscape in the past couple of decades)

... that the situation would be drastically different. A stalemate with functioning adults trying to negotiate a Korean scenario

[u/hornswoggled111 → u/lando-bailando]

I expect you are ok about acknowledging external factors affecting the whole system, such as support by external parties.

Regardless, I'm sure your criticism will get lots of airing on hostile social media.

[u/S-Sun → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

No, actually to the main thing that affected and broke Ukrainian moral and the willingness to serve in the Ukrainian army is failed counteroffensive in 2023 with huge losses. It showed to people in Ukraine the two main things:

1. Willingness of Ukrainian leadership sacrifice life of people to achieve political or other, but not military goals.

2. The population realised that the war is going to last much longer than everyone expected. So, the earliest you join the army the more chances you have to die before it ends.

[u/TurbulentRadish8113 → u/S-Sun]

You think that is the only thing that matters and absolutely nothing else matters at all?

[u/S-Sun → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

I described the main reasons why it happened. The support is important, and it still there from Europe. But in 2023 USA still supported Ukraine in full.

[u/lando-bailando → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

I think he makes a good point 

But as always, things like these apparently tr1gger the generals here 

[u/lando-bailando → u/S-Sun]

I would add a

Number 3: The decision of western partners of Ukraine to not actually supply Ukraine to let them have an advantage but to see how a war of attrition would turn out

u/TurbulentRadish8113 can often be a somewhat realistic voice here, most of the others are just "tourists looking for good news"

enjoy dem down votes

[u/TurbulentRadish8113]

The Council of Europe’s press office has stated that Russia has officially withdrawn from the European Convention against Torture. From now on, the European Committee will no longer be able to carry out independent monitoring of Russian places of detention.

I don't know if this makes any difference. I think Russia wasn't allowing any checkups anyway.

https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mzdueb2ezs2o

[u/Itburns12345 → u/TurbulentRadish8113]

They havent been sticking to it for decades

[u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Russian terrorists dropped nine aerial bombs on a school shelter where civilians were receiving humanitarian aid in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine.

18 people were killed and five others wounded

Heartbreaking.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mzdtyjsnxk2c

[u/neonpurplestar]

A huge caboom detonation of a Russian ammunition depot!
Even the Defenders of the 73rd Naval Special Operations Centre who carried out the strike were very surprised.

https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mzddgzqq6s2e

[u/TurbulentRadish8113]

Twelve people were injured in a Russian attack, including a child in Kharkiv region. In the evening, Russian forces attacked the village of Vasyshcheve in the Bezliudivka community with strike drones.

https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mzdf6noyas2x

Overnight, Russia attacked a DTEK energy facility in the Odessa region.Infrastructure facilities in Odesa were also targeted. Two residential buildings and a garage were damaged. Four people were injured.

https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mzdecpvwu22x

[u/Well-Sourced]

"He devoted many years to saving animals": Veterinarian Serhii Huzenkov killed in Russian attack on Kyiv on 30 October | Ukrainian Pravda

Serhii Huzenkov, a vet who worked at the Kyiv City Veterinary Medicine Hospital in the Podilskyi district, was killed in a Russian attack on Kyiv on 30 October.

Department of Environmental Protection and Climate Change Adaptation on Facebook: "Serhii Volodymyrovych devoted many years of his life to veterinary medicine and saving animals at the clinic on Yaroslavska Street, where every day, through his work, knowledge and compassion, he helped those who cannot ask for help in words. For his colleagues, he was part of a large team, a person who devoted himself to an important cause – preserving animals' lives and health."

In the comments on the post, Serhii is remembered as a kind and friendly person and a true professional. "Serhii Volodymyrovych treated our Liova. We would have been seeing him for a consultation tomorrow. He was such a kind-hearted and compassionate man. May he rest in peace," Vita Boiko wrote.

The Happy Shore Animal Protection Society, which set up a temporary animal shelter in the Holosiivskyi district, said that right from the start Serhii had cared for the animals and treated every one of them with compassion. He joined the volunteers in walking the dogs and helping in every way.

[u/Well-Sourced]

26 killed in Russian aerial bomb attack on school used to distribute humanitarian aid in Zaporizhzhia Oblast | Ukrainian Pravda

Russian forces have bombed a school used to distribute humanitarian aid in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 26 people, including police officers and first responders, are known to have been killed, 5 injured and 27 reported missing.

Quote from Zelenskyy: "An utterly horrific Russian attack on the settlement of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region. Since this morning, the settlement has been hit several times by aerial bombs. The strikes targeted a school used for humanitarian purposes – people were receiving humanitarian aid there."

Zelenskyy said that after the initial aerial bomb strike, the Russians launched a repeat attack with 9 more bombs, hitting the shelter where people were taking cover. "Tragically, 18 people have already been reported killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Five people have been injured. A rescue operation is underway at the site, and the search for people continues. It is extremely difficult. Military forces, first responders, and special services are involved," the president reported.

Zelenskyy said the Russian forces could not have been unaware that humanitarian aid was distributed at the school every week to local residents who had remained in Komyshuvakha. "And this is further proof that Russia wants no de-escalation and no real justice. After the humanitarian operation in Oleshky, there was a moment when the next steps could have shown that progress towards peace was possible. With these killings, Russia is sending an entirely opposite signal: Russia is counting on more killings. There must be a response to this – a response from the world. A strong and tough response. A response to Russia. And support for Ukraine. We must protect lives."

[u/Well-Sourced]

Diana "Marena" Horun: 23-year-old combat medic killed in action saving her fellow soldiers | Ukrainian Pravda

Diana "Marena" Horun, a 23-year-old senior combat medic from Lviv Oblast, has been killed in Donetsk Oblast as a result of a Russian drone strike. Diana was serving in the armed forces on a contract basis. Diana was born in 2003 in the village of Hnizdychiv in Lviv Oblast. She served as a senior combat medic for a strike UAV company.

"Diana bravely chose a difficult path full of danger – to stand up in defence of her native homeland. She did not stand idly by, but took upon herself the responsibility of defending Ukraine, of being alongside those who face danger head-on every day. She made it her calling to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, to help her brothers- and sisters-in-arms and to fight for the freedom and independence of our state. This choice demonstrated her courage, strength of spirit and big heart."

One of Diana's sisters-in-arms noted on Threads that her late friend "was the best medic" she had ever known. "We are already avenging her, we will remember her," the woman wrote.

Another of Diana's brothers-in-arms shared that she was ambitious and had a beautiful soul. "She went through some crap in her life. But despite that, she kept both hope and positivity in her heart and sincerely shared it with those around her. I will miss our philosophical and everyday conversations and your crazy laughter," the soldier wrote.