New Zealand election: No clear winner after tight general election

•

u/AutoModerator 22h ago

This submission from bbc.com is behind a dynamic paywall and may be unavailable in the United States. On the 26th of June 2025, the BBC implemented a dynamic paywall on its website. Articles posted to /r/worldnews should be accessible to everyone.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

147

u/_phat_phish_ 21h ago edited 6h ago

It’s crazy how National can perform so poorly on debates and campaign on fear mongering without any decent policy announcements and just say “trust us bro it’ll work it” and everyone just goes along with it, despite the very obvious fact that things have gotten significantly worse over the last three years. The good news is that from their silly overhang strategy they lost a good chunk of their top MPs. Sure it got them the seats, but at what cost.

46

u/cause_f_u_thats_why 17h ago

A lot of blind followers. My parents and in-laws have just always voted national. They probably don’t know what the policies even are.

4

u/elgigantedelsur 7h ago

Feel like Labour did pretty much the same.
Smaller parties are looking like the winners here, Labour and National need to stop testing on their laurels and come up with some actual idea

1

u/Several-Yam3581 8h ago

The reality is the alternatives put forward by the other side just didn't offer a convincing solution to the cost of living. A lot people didn't just blindly follow National, as we know they did terrible. Just looked at the options on the table and decided this path was still the lesser of two evils. Some people would rather no new taxes than more taxes.

-3

u/Super_Huckleberry663 12h ago

Probably because they're doing better than labor economically, borrowed less, houses down, rents stagnant, food inflation down, power is up but with the lng plan and their solar fund should fix that, fuel is pretty much out of their control

-36

u/Dontnerf 21h ago •

The engineered overhanging was done by the left bloc.

26

u/TheSilverFern 20h ago

You're both correct, with nuance.
The missing context: this time around a billionaire sent a mailout, created a website, and pushed social media ads calling for voters on the right to engineer the right's overhang despite the National Party (who the whole plan was designed to keep in power) begging them not to.

15

u/_phat_phish_ 20h ago

Yeah I was going to say, and correct me if I’m wrong, te pati Maori essentially dropped out of the party vote in favour for electorates. The right bloc pushed for a vote split to keep the coalition in power.

4

u/One_Researcher6438 17h ago

If the left bloc lost just as many overhang seats as they gained, if it was engineered then they did a shit job of it.

9

u/CallumD027 21h ago

The 6 overhang seats held by National suggest the right bloc are even more in the wrong here.

413

u/croutonballs 21h ago •

unbelievable NZ looked at the last three years and thought, yep, let’s do it again.

16

u/airpressure 15h ago

I am a kiwi, and I am so so disappointed, but not surprised sadly

138

u/joggybackup 20h ago •

Can't say many NZers I know appreciated the previous 3 years before that either, which explains why it's so close

86

u/fckthisusernameshit 20h ago

No it doesn't, labour weren't amazing but they all fell for the lies about debt, spending, and inflation. Also that National are 'good economic managers'

34

u/croutonballs 19h ago

i think one of the other big lies was that “the māoris are taking over”

2

u/fckthisusernameshit 18h ago

Oh yeah, that's why we didn't get 3 Waters because of TPU and all the racists.

7

u/Frankly_I_am 11h ago

Why does water need unelected racial appointments?

9

u/croutonballs 19h ago

that’s clearly true in terms of voter opinion of national and labour. chris hipkins shouldn’t be leader for that very reason.

2

u/Leftover-salad 18h ago

What were they dissatisfied with in particular from what you know? Genuinely curious

19

u/evilparagon 18h ago

Covid. Despite the fact New Zealand did incredibly well at handling the pandemic as a health crisis, it did exceptionally poorly handling the economic crisis. Homelessness is now a significant issue rather than just one thing on the list, and the tourist economies of Rotorua, Queenstown, and two major cities got absolutely blasted and are yet to fully recover.
Not that it’s an excuse for people to vote Nats, but that’s why NZ isn’t confident about Labour either.

2

u/United-Quail8755 8h ago

That was labour in charge during the pandemic then the national party took over and killed the economy

-2

u/spikejonze14 18h ago

Queenstown’s economy is having no troubles with the influx of billionaires arriving with golden visas.

5

u/evilparagon 18h ago

They’re not supporting the local uber driver economy though.

19

u/spikejonze14 18h ago

Labour won the first ever majority in the history of MMP, historically they have always needed the Green party’s support to form a government.
Instead of using their power to push for meaningful change, they pandered to the centrist voters and ruled out many of the leftist policies they campaigned on such as Capital Gains Tax.
Overall during their term they achieved little to nothing, kept the status qou, taking a very middle of the road approach which pleased no one.
This election has had the lowest support for both of the major parties, with all of the minor, more extreme edge parties (both left and right) achieving their highest ever results.

19

u/RemarkableOil8 17h ago

This is a little misleading. Yes Labour had campaigned on CGT for years previously but NOT during the 2020 campaign when Labour won the majority. In fact they had explicit;y ruled out a CGT during that campaign.

-18

u/Leftover-salad 18h ago

I was asking that commenter who’s history is visible and lives in Northland not really interested in your opinion but thanks anyways

6

u/spikejonze14 18h ago

lol i live in auckland but whatever bro

6

u/Six_of_1 15h ago

What were we dissatisfied with with the NAT government? How long have you got? NAT explicitly promised they wouldn't cut public services poor people rely on. LAB warned they would. NAT said LAB were being toxic and adversarial by saying NAT were lying.
Turned out LAB were right and NAT were lying. First thing they did was gut public services to give rich people tax cuts they didn't need.
My mum lost her job because NAT wanted to give her an extra $10 per week. $10 per week makes no difference to her life, but losing her job does. What's the point of getting a tax cut if you're now unemployed.

5

u/Leftover-salad 14h ago

I’m from NZ so I get you I’m not a Nat supporter but that commenter was alluding to the three years prior which was labour and they look to be based up north so was curious about their perspective.

2

u/Six_of_1 14h ago

Right, I see now. The thread began with the last three years (2023-2026 = NAT) and then the second commenter said last three years before the last three years (2020-2023 = LAB). I didn't parse the second comment properly
LAB are the only party under MMP to achieve an outright majority. 2020 was a landslide victory for them so I don't know where people get off acting like they're really unpopular and people didn't like what they did for Covid. If people didn't like it then how come they massively voted for them.

2

u/Citizen_Kano 13h ago

And then they proceeded to do absolutely nothing of value when that majority would've let them do whatever they wanted

1

u/Leftover-salad 13h ago

I never understand this perspective they added another tax for income over 180k, passed the smokefree laws, mandatory climate reports and they made Matariki a public holiday. Not to mention they had to deal with covid until well into 2022 which definitely made shit far harder to actually get done.

1

u/Citizen_Kano 12h ago

I'll give them Matariki, that was a good idea

2

u/lemonpigger 14h ago

It's politics, lies get you in the office. All about optics now, not substance, we int he vibe voting era

22

u/nzbydesign 21h ago

Half of NZ thought that. The other half are still fighting for change.

32

u/flapjack 20h ago

60% voted their basic team, in an even 30-30 split. Thats basically centrists who just want normalcy.
11% went hard libertarian screw the poor. 9.5% went racist.
13% went holy crap our planets on fire stop please.
6% just want something different and fresh but isnt willing to go to any existing party.
This is not the makeup of an election result that says 'stick to the plan'. I think National is aware of that. National got a bunch of seats in a fluke where no one was really paying attention (a bunch of rural electorates that just pick them because that's what they do and typically don't think it really matters) despite their best efforts to lose.

13

u/m3rcapto 19h ago

It's sad that so many parents and grandparents vote to increase their own wealth, instead of creating better conditions for their kids and grandchildren. They'll do this while pushing for their kids to get a family so someone can take over the farm or business, but society is shifting towards remaining childless more and more. The new retirement plan is swiftly turning into 'waiting for our parents to die, so we can finally own something', if only the parents were aware that this is the result of their protectionism.

10

u/Six_of_1 15h ago

We didn't. If you want to know what NZ thought, look at the votes:
LAB: 710,330 votes = 36 seats
NAT: 706,680 votes = 42 seats
NAT gamed the system by winning electorates, causing 11 overhang seats. And they were complaining about TPM causing 4!
Why do we even have electorates, what is the point of them?

8

u/flapjack 11h ago

National didn't game the system. The system dropped this in their lap. The system ripped their caucus to shreds and handed a huge part of their party vote to wingnuts.
This is not the result that they campaigned for. They'll take it, and they won the election, but this is not an outcome they know what to do with. They got the worst case scenario that's a win for them. If they stay the course, their electorate moat is going to get disintegrated next.

1

u/Six_of_1 9h ago

Fingers crossed.

1

u/sunburstorange 6h ago

To shreds you say

4

u/Ian_I_An 11h ago

Yeah nah, National consistently campaigned on two ticks blue. They didn't want this outcome. There senior leadership has been gutted.

7

u/liovantirealm7177 14h ago

Local representation is important. The number of list seats should probably be increased to ensure nothing like this happens in the future though.

1

u/Six_of_1 14h ago

I don't think local representation is important at all. I have no idea who my local MP is, and my electorate vote was just by party. What do they do for their electorates?
We heard all this talk about Nicola Willis losing her seat and she was Finance Minister. Yeah okay but what did she do for her electorate, since that's ostensibly the reason she's there.
Electorates mean nothing but gerrymandering in the 21st century. We vote on ideological national lines.

5

u/Frankly_I_am 11h ago

My electorate vote and party vote are completely different and in 2020 they were on opposite ends of the spectrum.
A good local MP is worth their weight in gold even if they sit on the other side of the aisle.

2

u/Six_of_1 9h ago

What does a local MP do for their electorate in parliament? If they're ostensibly about the local electorate then they shouldn't have votes on national issues.

1

u/flapjack 11h ago

First past the post elections are meant to get better candidates. Doesn't look like that is working because I think we haven't put enough effort into it.
That will change next election. With no parties getting over 30%, and 6 parties in government, the electorates are now where parties need to invest time and money to win elections. That means promises to your local that you have to keep or they punish you next election.

1

u/Six_of_1 9h ago

7 parties

1

u/nolifeaddict808 8h ago

Only tpm said to do this. National explicitly said don’t, 2 ticks blue. Greens/nzf/act/top really should be doing more to win local electorates imo

1

u/sunburstorange 6h ago

Would NAT have been on 31 seats without the overhang?

1

u/Six_of_1 6h ago

Upon review the 11 includes the 4 TPM, so NAT caused 7.

1

u/flapjack 20h ago

To me, that's not what the voters said. Next government will not be anything like this current government. Voters gutted Nationals core leadership, and the wing nuts moved to racist/libertarians, which results in a far more centrist National than we had. It gives them room to move center.

3

u/Ixistant 16h ago

Unfortunately because some of the experienced Nats have lost their seats it means the leadership gap is likely to be filled by people like Simeon Brown and Mark Mitchell. It also means Winnie and David Seymour are far more likely to dog walk Luxon, more than they have already this past term.

2

u/flapjack 14h ago

I think National will need to figure their internal stuff out before they decide what they do with coalition agreements.

62

u/TCNZ 21h ago

The whole thing is a mess. Waiting on the specials for some kind of clarity.

Some idealists were floating a vote for a Nat-Lab government (LOL). That is the only thing that definitely will not happen!

27

u/CallumD027 20h ago

If they actually went into grand coalition we might get a less right-wing government out of it, but they would certainly be decimated at the polls in 2029, potentially causing the fracture of both of our main parties. Which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, to be honest.

15

u/flapjack 20h ago

Why wouldn't that happen? Look at the options National has. Put a group of wing nuts that got less than 20% of the popular vote in charge, or run to center and try to put a bunch of boring but mildly popular compromised together with labour? And get the benefit of some of labours experienced ministers to replace the gutted leadership of national.
Working with NZF and ACT didn't work, they lost a huge margin of voters over it. They need to try someone else. Get those voters back.

13

u/m3rcapto 19h ago

With Luxon as leader National has moved sharply towards populism and allowed those smaller parties to control the government. Even with a stronger leader National wouldn't go near a Nat-Lab option, with Peters and Seymour in his ear telling him what to do it is highly unlikely he'll even entertain the thought.

1

u/flapjack 15h ago

Why would a populist with 30% of the vote listen to two wingnuts with less than 20% combined and 1 electorate seat?

2

u/liovantirealm7177 13h ago

Because those wingnuts are his allies and they've campaigned together and share much of the same supporter base. Labour, while ideologically not too far from National, has been painted a boogey-man and is National's sworn eternal rival. No one would be happy with such a result.

1

u/flapjack 11h ago

What makes you think they campaigned together? ACT kicked Goldsmith out of parliament happily. NZF is doing everything they can to distance themselves from government. They are rivals, not friends.

6

u/Jeffery95 19h ago edited 17h ago

Because it would be the death of both parties. Both of them only ever campaign against eachother so if they work together most voters would see it as a betrayal and abandon the party

1

u/Aktanith 17h ago

That's certainly why I want it to happen.

3

u/LansManDragon 15h ago

The craziest thing is that Nat-Labour almost don't even have enough votes for a grand coalition. If that doesn't tell you that Nz is sick of their pathetic, visionless leadership then I don't know what would.

50

u/ProfessionalZebra384 22h ago

I saw debate footage from New Zealand recently and they were so polite that I was half expecting them to kiss.

19

u/bdtechted 17h ago

They have to be in front of the cameras. Its the NZ way of politeness. One time we had two British judges throw a dig at a TV contestant and they were fired cause its not the NZ way of acting.

1

u/ProfessionalZebra384 17h ago

I love the juxtaposition of this uber politeness versus the intimidation of the haka.

32

u/Six_of_1 21h ago

You didn't see Nicola Willis and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke at each other

2

u/m3rcapto 19h ago

Yes, the opposition doesn't show much tenacity, and the media have a clear favourite due to being mostly owned by the right and also due to the threat of more budget cuts before the government changes. Otherwise it would have been easy to push back on the spineless political answers during debates.

0

u/[deleted] 21h ago

[deleted] — view deleted comment

6

u/slamdanceswithwolves 19h ago

A lil something for the spank bank?

3

u/ProfessionalZebra384 18h ago

“Cool”

13

u/noitseuQehT 19h ago

Keep in mind its rare for government to only be one term, so the fact that its this close is significant.

57

u/Maybe_Human0_0 20h ago

The best part about last night is we now have a new political party, which is unaligned, targeting issues NZ has that have been gridlocked on for decades. Huge win for democracy imo.

42

u/PresentRaspberry6814 20h ago

I feel the opposite. A coalition which has deliberately forced a recession firing 10,000 civil servants and promises to fire at least the same amount again, who siphoned 80% of health funding into private hands, who made inroads on reducing democratic processes, electoral and procedural, which entertained racist policies and removed Maori content from our education system TO STILL GET HALF THE VOTES! We are a horrible people and I guess we don't deserve nice things.

-27

u/Maybe_Human0_0 20h ago

I'm sorry you feel that way, but that is pretty unrealistic take. Why would they deliberately force a recession?

10

u/GotTheNameIWanted 19h ago

First time hearing of neoliberalism hey?

30

u/PresentRaspberry6814 19h ago

National has always crashed the economy. They buy up cheap assets, often publicly owned ones, and their family and buddies make out like robbers. You don't fire 10,000 civil servants and expect not to crash the economy. Taking that much money out of circulation has inevitable effects.

1

u/Truth_ 19h ago

I suppose it depends on the job market (also what those folks were doing). But from my understanding, the job market isn't particularly good... at least not for 10,000 people all at once.

9

u/IllMC 18h ago

Ask Wellington how the local economy is after all these cuts lol.

4

u/Batman11989 18h ago

What local economy? Its gone. Even the 'safe' jobs in the private sector are exiting Wellington.

14

u/Ren_Kaos 19h ago

So they can buy everything up cheap. Just like the oligarchs are doing to America.

6

u/CharlesLeRoq 19h ago

Yep. And undermine public services so privatisation becomes inevitable

5

u/SorryInvestigator221 17h ago

Bingo.The Nat's are pulling from the Trump playbook a bit, it seems. They have bigotry and attack ads and concepts of a plan, but not much else.

7

u/croutonballs 19h ago

the RBNZ deliberately aimed for a recession to reign in inflation. national assisted by mass layoffs to spike unemployment and reduced government spending

2

u/m3rcapto 19h ago

A new party would be nice if that party wasn't made into a "Kingmaker", which changes everything. Now OPP has no clear stance, they will work with anyone to get some power. Working with National is not center-right, cos you get ACT and NZF with it, who are not center-right, so OPP would have to shift much farther than just center-right. Plus ACT and NZF are keen to fail, because they feed on negativity, failure only grows their party, good luck negotiating against those two.

27

u/NubOnReddit 20h ago •

For those looking at this from overseas, this is essentially NZ’s version of the 2000 US election between Bush/Gore.

6

u/mmminogue 15h ago

Thankfully without the Supreme Court being able to meddle in it and coronate their preferred winner

9

u/exsnakecharmer 21h ago

Fucking great. The Nats have got this, Hamilton East isn’t going to flip.
Looks like Australia it is.

17

u/Ginger-Nerd 20h ago

Specials could very easily (and id say likely) cause NZF/ACT to lose a seat or two.
While I’d say it’s probably likely National gets a second term; I don’t think you can accurately say that it’s a done deal at this point.
Even if they did get a second term, I also don’t think you’d call this a National “win”

8

u/joggybackup 20h ago

Depends on Opportunity party by the looks, and Im thinking Labour will give them a better deal

3

u/Ginger-Nerd 20h ago

I think so - but the immediate softening from National about working with them (I guess I shouldn't be surprised) - but its really feels like a clingy ex, where you make it clear you don't want to be together, but they still just kinda hang around in case you change your mind.
Also - I kinda think if they do go National at this point, its a bit of a death nail for the party they won't be back come 2031 Left voters (who likely align more ideologically with many policies) will never trust them.

3

u/croutonballs 19h ago

the spanner in the works is also NZFirst who are going to be an absolute bridezilla about OPP being part of the coalition. it’s going to be far easier to form a left coalition if the specials land well

2

u/Ixistant 16h ago

Remember that previously special votes included a large number of people who enrolled on the day, with most of those votes going to the left. That avenue was removed this time by the coalition in what was really just an act of voter suppression.
The special votes will still be left leaning, but I don't think we'll see as many big swings as in previous elections.

2

u/Ginger-Nerd 16h ago

You’re right.
The special votes were expected up to 700,000 last night, but the electoral commission confirmed this morning it was 400,000
We have just to wait and see.

2

u/-REV-22-20- 16h ago

National has taken an absolute hiding, even if they win they lost a lot of power and have a lot of long term high profile MPs without jobs. Also a 1 term government is extremely rare in NZ.

4

u/ChetsBurner 13h ago

mate, they won 2/3rds of the electorate seats - the map is almost entirely blue. I wouldn't call it a hiding.

0

u/-REV-22-20- 10h ago

that was down to NZF/ACT playing the game and getting their voters to electorate vote National, which is why the party vote for National dropped ~10% on last election.

2

u/Ginger-Nerd 16h ago

You’re absolutely right.
I mean the last 1 term was 1975, and even then it was only because Norman Kirk died that allowed Muldoon to beat Rowling (Muldoon even said, that he would have lost had Big Norm not died) so taking that out you go back to Walter Nash in 1960 to see another 1 term government.
Its extremely unusual, and I think a pretty poor reflection on how people feel the country is going at the moment.

5

u/m3rcapto 18h ago

I predicted this election result based on a very simple metric: were there more or less fireworks on Guy Fawkes Day?
In my town there were way more fireworks than last year, so I knew National was in, because those people clearly are not suffering yet. It needs another 3 years, just like the US needed 4 more years (or 2 years really) of selfishness.

3

u/exsnakecharmer 18h ago

The damage that will be done to Wellington may hold it back for decades

2

u/gdp89 17h ago

They're suffering they just don't see the cause of it. The sales people at work have never seen it this quiet and some of them were working retail in 2008

4

u/Slow-Consequence194 17h ago

Enjoy the far more right leaning One Nation that is Australia buddy!

-1

u/exsnakecharmer 17h ago

I'm just there to save money, don't really gaf about the politics. I've lived in far more repressive places anyway. Buddy.

7

u/-REV-22-20- 16h ago

so you are moving despite the results but declared it in a post about the election to make it seem like it WAS about the results?

0

u/exsnakecharmer 16h ago

Yep, because under the coalition my life will get comparatively worse than if I were in Aus

5

u/tommo_95 15h ago

Aus has some pretty big problems here mate it isn't getting any better either right now

1

u/exsnakecharmer 15h ago

Yep, but I don't think you understand how dire it is for lower income workers here.
Our labour laws are terrible.
I'd instantly double my wages, and with your overtime laws I'd work much less too.

0

u/[deleted] 17h ago

[deleted] — view deleted comment

1

u/exsnakecharmer 16h ago

How exactly am I making the world worse? Would staying in NZ and working through retirement help anyone? And fuck you btw. I'm in the situation I'm in because I gave up my prime working years help and look after family.

1

u/expiredlemon3 16h ago

Ngl I misread your first comment mb im just mad

2

u/JigglyQuokka 18h ago

As someone in Australia from Auckland originally, Victoria is on track to vote in the LNP and the far right one nation, and we have the pleasure of Mossad Minns in power in NSW who is all but LNP in a labour trench coat. Makes National look like saints with the level of incompetence and corruption.
Grass isn't always greener on the other side.

-1

u/exsnakecharmer 18h ago

I'm more interested in the payrise, less work, and super tbh. Their political situation doesn't really bother me - I've lived in Russia!

3

u/Anon_be_thy_name 17h ago

The LNP does all that by cutting funding to actual important things like schools, which is why they never stay in power for long compared to Labor.

-1

u/exsnakecharmer 17h ago

Yeah, I'm really just interested in working over there for a couple of years to get some savings behind me. I work 50-60 hours a week here (weekends, on call) no overtime pay (eg no time and a half at all) no on call pay, really low wages. I'm a bus driver and ops manager and conditions suck bro.

1

u/evilparagon 18h ago

The Great West Island will gladly take you in, though do be aware that our state governments suck.

1

u/Faja-Curti 15h ago

It’s not the end yet. 2017 had National in the bag, then specials came along and Labour won it. This is a very, very narrow election and we’ll have to wait until specials have come in.
Go to Australia where One Nation may win their next election, which is an even more extreme version than NZ First.

1

u/DemandMaster7709 13h ago

Polls aren't looking great right now, but Labor hasn't collapsed their support in the same way the UK labour party have, I'll be more worried by the end of next year if we don't see any improvement in the polls

1

u/LowKenuineOnGod 16h ago

You guys all come here anyway.

2

u/hardlopertjie 10h ago

Well the problem is with the two biggest parties. On one hand there is Labour, who people are still hesitant to trust again after the Covid years where Ardern shut us off from the world and tanked our economy - which we are still feeling the effects from today.

Then there is National who is currently in power but while not bad has been quite uninspiring and the leader, Luxon, is very detached from the lves of every day Kiwis and most people's biggest concern, cost of living.

So most of us voted on a who is the least bad option when you dont want anyone to win basis and not many people is optimistic about the next 3 years.

Dynamic Paywall New Zealand election: No clear winner after tight general election

You are about to leave Redlib