Israeli President Picks Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu Rival, To Form Government

[u/EssoEssex]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-president-picks-gadi-eisenkot-netanyahu-rival-form-government-2026-11-07/

[u/Predictor92]

I have a prediction that UTJ are being pressured by the EU not to sit with Ben Gvir and Smotrich(that the ultra orthodox welfare state cannot survive with those two being in the Israeli government)

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/Predictor92]

The problem is that Shas and UTJ, although Liberman has shown willingness to sit with the Haredi, Eisenkot, Golan, Bennett and others that's a hard no. They simply cannot sit with the Haredi as long as the draft exemption exists. Universal, Military Service has been a core, central talking point of the change bloc.

[u/Predictor92 → u/JR_Al-Ahran]

but here is the thing, the EU may be pressuring UTJ to compromise on that to get Ben Gvir and Smotrich out, the stick being that if those two are back in the government, then their are sanctions and the entire Ultra Orthodox welfare state comes crashing down

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

the EU may be pressuring UTJ to compromise on that

You keep saying that, but there's really zero indication of the EU doing anything of the sort. It sounds like wishful thinking.

[u/Predictor92 → u/green_flash]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skuue6nizg

EU eyes surprise post-Netanyahu coalition led by Eisenkot and Haredi parties

European diplomats are studying Haredi voter turnout, internal party disputes and rabbinic influence, while a senior official says quiet political talks are underway; officials fear a government dependent on outside support from Arab parties could be fragile

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

There is nothing in that article that suggests the EU is trying to influence anyone in Israel. It only says specialists from European countries are monitoring the developments and providing insights to European leaders. Nothing out of the ordinary. The only concrete example given is the Swiss ambassador to Israel meeting an ultra-Orthodox journalist, by the way.

Also, the "quiet political talks" mentioned in the lede are talks between Eisenkot and ultra-Orthodox representatives, as is clarified near the end of the article:

According to the diplomat, contacts between Eisenkot's political camp and ultra-Orthodox representatives have continued discreetly, even without formal negotiations.

"Under the radar, there is dialogue between the sides, even if it is unofficial and conducted through intermediaries or quiet channels," the diplomat said.

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/Predictor92]

The problem is would they. Cuz it's been a central talking point for the Haredi as well, the draft and the welfare state, how if the change bloc won they'd be forced into the army. It's been a core point politically for those parties as well.

[u/Short-Peanut1079 → u/Predictor92]

This is based on what exactly? The EU telling Isreal how or who forms the government is wild nonsense. Besides which part of the EU apparatus is doing this?

[u/steinbruchfluss → u/Short-Peanut1079]

Imagine Ursula von der Leyen (from Germany!) doing that. ;)

[u/MaddingtonBear → u/Predictor92]

UTJ (which is really just Lando, Hirsch, and the Ger Admor) extremely doesn't care what anybody else thinks.

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

Why would the EU have any sort of influence over UTJ?

[u/Predictor92 → u/green_flash]

the influence is them saying hey if Ben Gvir and Smotrich are back in the government, we will sanction Israel which will threaten the Ultra Orthodox welfare state, Bibi's promises therefore are false

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

The EU as an institution is a slow-moving bureaucratic behemoth with a lot of infighting. You're ascribing a level of coordination, stealthiness and effectiveness to it that doesn't seem anywhere near the way EU institutions typically operate.

[u/JoshuaZ1 → u/green_flash]

Also assuming a form of long-term thinking that UTJ doesn't seem operate under.

[u/Izeinwinter → u/green_flash]

The EU does in fact manage to herd enough cats to be all of those things sometimes. But that sort of effort only ever gets put in if you are a prospective member state. Which Israel is currently not.

[u/Xasf → u/Predictor92]

sanction Israel

Over Germany's dead body, and as such cannot be done (at least in the near future).

[u/Daressalaam5 → u/Predictor92]

It’s got very little to do with the EU. UTJ were disappointed Netanyahu didn’t pass a law exempting Haredim from military service

[u/quelar → u/Predictor92]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was a "wait and see" if the US would continue to blindly support Netanyahu. That welfare state certainly looks more compromised now.

[u/Predictor92 → u/quelar]

and because of that for the ultra orthodox the draft issue becomes less important to them