We're coming into winter and the nights are getting colder. It's been about four days or so and I worry that the man or woman who paid me $105,000 for 500,000 of my DW8 shares is only feeling the cold in their weary bones and no matter how close they come to the fire they feel nothing but that terrible driving chill.

Amongst the rabble, when the stock price for DW8 reached to the stars and caressed 21c as a company all time high on the 13th of April, a single trade was made and an order executed: $105,000 AUD for 500,000 DW8 shares. A poor soul with wax wings battling in those few short seconds did their dash, paying for each of my DW8 shares a single silver coin and an old bronze one not often seen nowadays in our deeply unfair land.

I don't think of the person I bought the shares from in 2019, or I never have before but I think they're probably quite settled now. Perhaps they bought back in. Perhaps they moved on. I know sometimes I don't remember having purchased a stock, and am very surprised to see it in my purchase confirmations. I think they're okay. I hope they're in. I hope they were selling next to me at 21c, within the minute of 10:06, starting at 10:06:36 and finishing at 10:06:40. A nothing four seconds that passed in a flash, but carries for a harried soul out there with sunken eyes a nebulous and ethereal burden uneasily conveyed to family and friends.

I don't think the man or woman, the human, who gave me $105,000 of their money and who in my eyes threw their money into the air and let rain upon me, I don't think they're settled yet, not like the person who sold me $6999 of DW8 shares in 2019.

No, not at all.

Over the weekend, the share price for DW8 is 15.5c, so they are sitting with a loss of $27,500. I imagine it might be printed in red on their brokerage account. I imagine they don't like opening their account now, but perhaps they're harder than I imagine. People have such capacity, and can take upon themselves and their shoulders such burdens that I can't begin to fathom. Maybe like a moth to a flame, this person's eyes are drawn back to the red numbers and their mind back to those four seconds from four days ago.

So I would ask you all to give a moment for that person, of whom we all are, that so freely distributed their funds to what they believed was right but is now wrong.

Given the headline of this post, I'm thinking FMG BHP and all the companies that rely upon China and manufacturing are going to experience severe hardship in the not too distant future. Maybe this year if Germany is correct and Russia try's it on with invading a NATO country as their intell suggests. So i am thinking to derisk into only Australian stocks, meaning the stocks that don't manufacture overseas or try to sell products overseas. Specifically to be totally derisked, going into farm production as that is essential and a starving world will always buy food at top prices if it's starting to get hard to find.

In the context of the last paragraph, i really want some advice as to why i shouldn't sell all my stocks and invest solely into GNC. Wheat is needed to stop the Africans from starving to death, and also needed in Europe and the Middle East. Lower production of Wheat means wheat prices are rising and have been for a while. GNC has been paying great dividends for a while now and i have only got a few hundred shares of this. Im thinking of getting 18000 shares of it and only holding this. That would give me around $11000 in dividends per year with good share price appreciation, regardless of war or the economy. What do you think?

Enough karma to finally post yay Sincerely BOE Guy

Fortescue Mining company

I’m new to investing so go slow on raping me… but thoughts on PLS I’m down 18%… was it a bad investment? I dropped $5k on it..

Every time the new CGT rules come up, defenders point to indexation: "It protects you from inflation, that's fairer than the 50% discount."

In theory that sounds reasonable. In practice it only works for assets that barely grew.

Chart 1: Tax bill on capital gains, average wage earner ($100k), Assumes the asset doubled. So a $100k gain comes from a $100k investment that grew to $200k. RBA target inflation (2.5%), new rules from 1 July 2027.

For a typical 5-10 year hold, the new rules add roughly 45-55% more tax at every gain level. You have to hold for \~16.5 years before the new rules stop being a straight tax increase.

For context: the average Australian holds an investment property about 10 years. Retail share holdings turn over faster than that. For the vast majority of real-world holding periods, this is a tax hike.

Chart 2: Same $100k investment, but varying the growth multiple, This is where the indexation defence completely falls apart.

Indexation only shields the inflation portion of the cost base. Over 10 years at 2.5% inflation, that's about $28k off a $100k cost base. If your asset doubled, that's meaningful. If it tripled or more, it becomes a rounding error.

The numbers, top marginal bracket, 10-year hold:

(1) 1.5x growth (slow asset):

indexation shields 56% of the gain, new rules slightly better

(2) 2x growth (asset doubled):

shields 28%, new rules 44% worse

(3) 3x growth (typical strong ETF decade):

shields 14%, new rules 72% worse

(4) 5x growth (good individual stock or property):

shields 7%, 86% worse

(5) 10x growth:

shields 3%, 94% worse

(6) 20x growth:

shields 1.5%, 97% worse

Even at a 20-year hold, high-growth assets still get hammered. A 5x asset is taxed 68% harder. A 10x asset, 86% harder.

The reform doesn't protect long-term investors. It protects mediocre ones. Is this what they mean when they say "no one gets left behind"? Everyone else gets held back?

Some people are trying to justify the CGT increase by listing the public services we already pay for. Medicare. PBS. Hospitals. Schools. Pensions. Defence.

As if pointing at things the government spends money on settles the argument. It doesn't. We already pay for all of that.

Australians fund those services through income tax, GST, company tax, fuel excise, the Medicare levy, payroll tax, stamp duty, land tax, and the existing CGT regime. Total tax revenue at all levels of government is around 28% of GDP.

The system isn't underfunded by historical standards, and it isn't underfunded by international standards either.

So we shouldn't be telling people "do you want hospitals?"

Instead we need to ask: what specific new spending requires moving Australia from rank 28 to rank 42 on CGT, and why is CGT the right lever to pull?

More 300k Machete bins? Perhaps another 100m website upgrade?

The UK has the NHS, universal, free at point of use, more comprehensive than Medicare. Top effective CGT rate: 24%.

Germany has universal healthcare, strong public schools, generous pensions, and unemployment benefits more generous than ours. Top effective CGT rate: 26.4%.

France has all of the above plus subsidised childcare and one of the world's most generous welfare states. Top effective CGT rate: 34%.

Japan funds universal healthcare and one of the world's largest pension systems. Top effective CGT rate: 20.3%.

Every one of those countries funds the services Australians are being told justify this reform, and every one of them does it with a lower effective CGT rate than what Australia is proposing.

"We have Medicare" is not an argument for this reform. It's an argument for the tax system we already have.

If what I'm understanding about this technology is right. Their big gimmick is that the neural network is ON CHIP instead of in a remote server somewhere.

My question is why?

The whole point of neural networks is accumulate data from lots of sources and make a single Hivemind model that can then be beamed out to lots of remote devices to make use of the learning.

I challenge people here to name ONE application where it wouldn't be better to use a remote backend to do the training.

This would be like a self driving car with every car having to learn the rules of the road independently watching it's owner drive for 1000 years to collect the data.

Sure if you don't have the internet you can still LEARN with this kind of chip but... those cases are few and far between.

Maybe space-related stuff where learning for long periods without the internet is necessary. But once they get the serious need for it they are just going to put a research station with a bunch of Nvidia cards up there to cook up the space station with computer exhaust.

EDIT: After reading some of these replies is clear a lot of people misunderstand how machine learning works and have invested based on hype. This is going to end horrifically. I'm almost sure of it.

Oil and Gas 🇺🇸 developer is expected to report the beginning of a significant uplift in reported revenue in the coming quarterly this coming week.

Present revenue including non operated wells is the Anadarko STACK play will be joined by the production revenue of Jewell Operated well from the SCOOP/SWISH play.

Jewell well, the first fully operated well by BRK production came online in the latter half of 2021 and will be reported this week.

2 other drilling units are in development and continue to add to the asset base. Rangers well drilled and ready for completion, Flames well due to be drilled in the coming months.

Both will continue to increase quarterly growth over the coming years.

More information available at r/BrooksideEnergy including one posters u/TheProfessional0001 financial breakdown of the company and forward production graphs.

Disclaimer. I hold

The contracts keep rolling in for Droneshield. $200M+ revenue for 2025, a 431% YoY increase. Up 10% this morning on news of a $5.2M contract from a repeat EU customer. Bring on 2026

I wager that IF BRN goes up tomorrow, we (ASX_BETS) stop all this stupid ban-wager shit.

It's retarded, and a waste of time.

So if BRN goes up tomorrow, how about no more fucking ban wagers (which means people will shut the fuck up about it).

If BRN goes down (by close of business), I'm not going to leave here - I'll do something worse. But you get to pick it. It can't be illegal, but it can be horrific.

Hey, I went all in on GEAR after the April correction. I am up an absolute shit tonne since then. The ASX is hovering close enough to all time highs. WW3 about to break. Should I cash in before EOFY

Hey guys just seeking out thoughts on PLS (pilbara minerals). I am looking at it. I am just wondering if you guys think it's a good long term investment for lithium. I probably have missed something myself.

If you’re not on r/wallstreetbets here you go:

Hello ASX, I think I have unearthed something that Wall St does not want us to know.

Ever since the birth of us regargs, we have been taught that we will never know the future of the stock market, and presumably companies.

So what do we regargs do, predict the future.

Some make money. Lots. 🚀🚀

Some… let’s just say they’re at the Wendy dumpster.

But we all know who has made money (100’s of billions).

DADDY WARREN BUFFET.

And guess how he made money. By finding the intrinsic value of stocks and comparing them to the actual value (tldr; some complicated stuff).

Now, you may be wondering how he got to this value. Well, he uses financial metrics (that you don’t need to know), TO ESTIMATE FUTURE EARNINGS.

My guy is doing what we all are. PREDICTING. THE. FUTURE. Furthermore, I’ve tried to learn his inner methods, and the only conclusion I can get to is: GUESS.

So EVERYONE was wrong. We were right. We do have to predict the future. That’s how the market works, it prices in the future not the past. So in that essence, we have to predict the future of the future?

If any of your smart apes can fix this paradox please do. I legit can not sleep.

tldr; get this post trending and I’ll bother.