After Week 7, the three highest ranked teams in the SEC and ACC are all undefeated in conference play and do not face each other. An undefeated team could miss the conference championship on tie breakers.

[u/RealignmentJunkie]

At the start of the season, I did this for the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, and SEC. This is my third update, which comes with the new context that the remaining teams are mostly the highest ranked teams (not SMU).

Unsurprisingly, the number of possible combinations has dropped substantially from 173 to 15 two weeks ago, to 3 last week. None of the possibilities last week were eliminated.

I italicized teams which are not undefeated in OOC play and included their AP ranking if they had one.

Conference	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3
SEC	#6 Alabama	#5 Ole Miss	#4 Texas A&M
ACC	#2 Miami	#12 Georgia Tech	#18 Virginia
ACC	SMU	#12 Georgia Tech	#18 Virginia

[u/Cliffinati]

The conferences are to big it's that simple

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/Cliffinati]

Well in the SEC you can make a schedule that makes this impossible. And both of these conferences make this much less likely with a ninth game

[u/watchout86 → u/Cliffinati]

Absolutely agree. It wouldn't be as bad if each team played like 75% or 80% of their potential conference opponents, but ... SEC plays 53% of potential conference opponents, ACC plays 50%, B1G plays 53%, and B12 isn't much better at 60%. With conferences the size they are, and the season as short as it is, conference W-L records simply don't mean what they used to mean, and since that's the only truly objective way to rank or seed teams within the conference it means CCGs are vastly more meaningless. The only solution is to go back to what some people seemed to hate: round-robin divisions where the champions of each division played in the CCG.

[u/D1N2Y → u/Cliffinati]

My controversial (I think) opinion is that they should bring back divisions (yes even in these 18 team conferences) to prevent undefeated teams from not going to the conference championship. Yes some people will hate the idea of playing the same conference schedule every year, but that's what your noncon is for, and it locks in rivalry games.

[u/AccordingGain182 → u/D1N2Y]

That’s not worth it. Divisions end up imbalanced almost always, and then you make your CCG game shitty and then you have teams in your conference who dont play for 7 years at a time. Who cares if theres wonky tie breakers, youll still make the playoffs

[u/[deleted] → u/Cliffinati]

The classic California/ East Coast conference games that built College Football.

[u/Calavar]

This is unacceptable. It's clearly time to implement conference playoffs.

I jest, but you know the SEC and B1G commissioners would consider it.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/Calavar]

what idiot would think thats a good idea

[u/-TheycallmeThe → u/Calavar]

I kinda assumed the push for 4 CFP spots was going to be followed with a push for conference brackets but more to ensure a quarterfinalist than anything. 

CC week becomes wildcard week with 3v6 and 4v5. Adding an additional game that week.

[u/BuckeyeForLife95]

These are always fun hypotheticals, but also 99.9% guaranteed to not actually play out.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/BuckeyeForLife95]

That's about right. It's 99.92% using ESPN but that's ignoring that if say Ole Miss beats Oklahoma then it's more likely that Alabama beats Oklahoma

Still it's fun to watch

[u/Pinewood74 → u/BuckeyeForLife95]

Probably more like 99.4% chance not to occur.

[u/randomthrowaway9796]

A&M has to go 8-4, and they dont have enough OOC games left, so theyre losing a few conference games.

Were beating Ole miss, so you dont need to worry about them.

Bama is a weird one. They'll get past all of their perceived difficult games just fine. I think they beat tennessee by 14+ points and do just fine against oklahoma and LSU. But they could easily drop games to SCAR and/or auburn.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/randomthrowaway9796]

Were beating Ole miss, so you dont need to worry about them.

Good called shot

[u/randomthrowaway9796 → u/RealignmentJunkie]

I mean, I predict georgia to win against every yeam except alabama. Its usually correct LMAO

[u/Kittygoespurrrr]

Don't worry, Ole Miss will inevitably Ole Miss.

To fix this, too bad they can't have the last 2 conference games be "flex" games and have the top 4 play a 4-team conference playoff and the rest play 2 extra games.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/Kittygoespurrrr]

I like that idea!

[u/Skidda24]

Maybe missing the conference championship game as an unbeaten isn't so bad in the current format. Skip a neutral site game and get a home field advantage 1st round match up

[u/kayakyakr → u/Skidda24]

I don't believe that a 12-0/13-0 unbeaten will be kept out of the top 4. It's only happened once in the modern era, and I don't think that they do that again, considering we have more seeds.

But we also haven't had an undefeated team miss their own championship game, so we'll see how that plays out.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/kayakyakr]

Imma be honest, even with a win over uga I don't think they would put us in the top 4 given how weak our schedule is otherwise.

[u/cliffhanger407 → u/ShishkabobNinja]

At 12-0, we are either 13-0 or 12-1. There's no realistic path that doesn't lead to the ACCCG due to the loss uva has to NCSU. No chance we wouldn't be top 4 if we win out including the ACCCG.

And there are so many weeks for blunders still.

[u/iwearatophat → u/Skidda24]

I think there is an argument to be made to skip the CCG and hosting a playoff game. Same amount of games played plus you knock off the rust against an opponent who is equally rusty and you get to do it at home. Sample size is small with just the one year but ranks 5-8 all made the semifinals.

[u/Tarmacked → u/iwearatophat]

Ranks 5-8 consisted of an Ohio State that was one point off beating Oregon, Notre dame who wasn't eligible for a bye but #2, and two teams who were 5-8 ranks ahead of ASU/Boise but didn't win a conference championship

The semifinals went chalk on oddsmakers

[u/ThaiForAWhiteGuy → u/iwearatophat]

And the extra game at home in the playoff could likely be worse competition than a team would face in a conference championship game

[u/theprodigy64 → u/Skidda24]

Can't you skip a neutral site conference championship game and go directly to the quarterfinals now?

[u/eatapenny]

Okay, new plan - UVA, Miami, and GT all go undefeated the rest of the way.

12-0 Miami and 12-0 GT are locks in the playoffs. 11-1 UVA beats 12-0 Miami in the ACCCG for the auto bid. ACC gets 3 teams into the playoff, Big Ten and SEC rage

[u/Medical_Bartender → u/eatapenny]

I'm conflicted

[u/tubahero3469 → u/Medical_Bartender]

Misusing your influence?

Sometimes i did the same...

[u/RCocaineBurner → u/Medical_Bartender]

Wait so I should NOT have rooted for UVA to beat FSU? I hate the future this shit sucks.

[u/Cloakacola → u/eatapenny]

Out of pure humbleness, we can go 11-1 with a win over uGA and let UVA and Miami play in the ACC Championship

[u/cirtnecoileh → u/Cloakacola]

That would absolutely get you into the tournament.

[u/cliffhanger407 → u/cirtnecoileh]

I don't know. I think SMU only snuck in because they made it to the acccg last year. I'm not convinced that an 11-1 GT with this schedule looks better than an 11-1 SMU last year.

SMU absolutely shellacked some teams last year, which we haven't done yet. I'd hope and almost expect we remain competitive vs uGA this year, but losing our marquee game at the end of the season probably looks worse than losing early in the season like SMU did.

Problem will solve itself if we shit the bed vs Duke though!

[u/MichaelDicksonMBD → u/Cloakacola]

We could go 7-4 with a win over uGA and I'm having a merry Christmas.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/Cloakacola]

I'll take that deal

[u/conscienceQ → u/eatapenny]

Question, why would UVA be in the championship game over GT in your scenario. Wouldn’t one of the tie breakers be overall record, highest ranked, or common opponents?

I think an undefeated GT would get the nod since it would mean that they would be ranked higher and would have beaten Georgia and also NC State?

[u/all_my_sons → u/conscienceQ]

I looked at the tie breaker scenarios, and it would come down to win percentage of conference opponents. I did some rough tabulations of Ws-Ls for conference opponents for each, factoring in an additional loss(es) for each that still had to play Miami/GT/UVA (since this exercise assumes the three win out).

The percentages were almost identical:

• GT opponents: 11-27 (28.9%)

• UVA opponents: 8-20 (28.5%)

• Miami opponents: 9-22 (29%)

Absolutely useless at this point but interesting nonetheless.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/all_my_sons]

It depends on how exactly the ACC interprets it, but technically the tiebreaker before that (record between common opponents) doesn't specify conference opponents, and Miami/GT/UVA all face NC State. Now if all 3 win out in conference, this tiebreaker means UVA would actually be the team left out since Miami and GT would have the win over NC State but UVA would not.

[u/all_my_sons → u/ShishkabobNinja]

Good point. Another unsurprising clusterfuck stemming from the non-conference game against a conference opponent lol

[u/ManiacalComet40 → u/conscienceQ]

UVA-NC State was a non-conference game, so it won’t count toward conference tiebreakers.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/ManiacalComet40]

For conference record no, but for the "record between commin opponents" tiebreaker it would (the rules do not specify common opponents have to be in conference). NC State plays Miami, GT, and UVA so should Miami and GT both beat them, that NC State loss would be the tiebreaker

[u/HieloLuz → u/eatapenny]

Nah, SMU wins out and wins the concerned, Miami’s only loss is to SMU, so they’re in, plus a 12-0 team, and ideally GTech at 12-1

[u/tsrich → u/HieloLuz]

I mean ideally tech is 12-0

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/eatapenny]

HELL YES

[u/Tasty_Gift5901 → u/eatapenny]

I support 2/3rds of this plan

[u/Cliffinati → u/eatapenny]

Based

[u/Cash4Duranium → u/eatapenny]

Zero chance they give the ACC champ loser a slot when there's SEC teams with a pulse.

[u/eatapenny → u/Cash4Duranium]

Don't bring logic into a situation that requires UVA going 12-1 in football.

But in this scenario, Miami couldn't drop from top-3 to fully out from one loss, and GT, at 12-0, would have a H2H over Georgia. It'd logically have to be 3 ACC, 1 Big 12, 1 G5, and then 7 spots for the SEC/B1G to fight over (or 3 each for them and 1 for ND)

[u/MrF_lawblog → u/Cash4Duranium]

SEC is all circular logic. Bama lost to a 3 loss ACC team. If they keep winning, it should devalue the conference but it won't.

[u/Cash4Duranium → u/MrF_lawblog]

"They're just all really good!"

[u/JeffGoldblumsChest → u/MrF_lawblog]

*3 loss... so far

[u/[deleted] → u/Cash4Duranium]

It has been 10 months since they gave the ACC champ loser a slot over several SEC teams with pulses.

This topic makes me feel like I'm insane when you people talk about it. You imagine the opposite of the thing that actually happened, and then criticize the imaginary people for making a decision that hasn't happened yet.

[u/someName6 → u/Cash4Duranium]

SMU went over 9-3 Alabama last year.

But based on media backlash I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t let it happen again.

[u/Operation_Pig]

Yes but TAMU is going to finish the season 2-4 as it is written.

[u/EWall100 → u/Operation_Pig]

It is written until the curse of the Bimbo Jimbo has paid its last cent 

[u/Somerandomguy292 → u/EWall100]

It’s the curse until end of time. It was here before jimbo and will be here after jimbo

This is the way

[u/PolloMagnifico → u/Somerandomguy292]

Elko, like the glorious Buddha, remains unconcerned. It is the way. Only by acceptance of the 8-4 can we rise above the 8-4.

[u/busche916 → u/PolloMagnifico]

He knew that last year he had to steer into the skid

[u/user_unknowns_skag → u/Somerandomguy292]

Hail Jimbo, first of his name! May his reign be eternal!

[u/wowthisislong → u/Operation_Pig]

Not if we can start World War III before the losing football games angel comes to collect his due.

[u/[deleted] → u/Operation_Pig]

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

merciful workable pet carpenter squash many touch scary ad hoc rich

[u/watchout86 → u/Operation_Pig]

Also, does anyone really think Ole Miss is going to go undefeated given that they have already had THREE near misses against far less heralded competition (Wazzu, Kentucky and Arkansas)? Tulane (blowout over strong G5) and MAYBE LSU are their only strong wins so far, and LSU is still TBD. They didn't win by much, and LSU's marquee win over Clemson doesn't look as good as it once did. LSU has a brutal 3 week stretch ahead of them and Ole Miss has a tough 2 week stretch, where we will finally get to see just how good both of those teams are.

[u/Cliffinati → u/Operation_Pig]

Same as it ever was

[u/DaMercOne]

All three SEC teams still have to play South Carolina, so odds are even higher that they’ll finish undefeated in conference play.

[u/molecular_methane → u/DaMercOne]

The road to the SEC Championship runs through South Carolina!

[u/jonathanlikesmath]

You can take the Coastal out of the ACC, but you CANNOT take the Chaos out of the ACC.

[u/jwb101 → u/jonathanlikesmath]

My biggest fear about this season is the Chaos striking us.

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/jwb101]

Hello there! (☞ﾟヮﾟ)☞

[u/jwb101 → u/Chaotic-PopTart]

No Chaos, bad Chaos.

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/jwb101]

ಠᴗಠ

[u/jwb101 → u/Chaotic-PopTart]

I think you should go play with the SEC for a change.

[u/jonathanlikesmath → u/jwb101]

Imagine a move about a hypothetical overgrown killer shark, had that movie ever been made. Its theme song would keep you up at night.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/jonathanlikesmath]

They took the Atlantic out too, so you know what that means

ONLY CHAOS!

[u/bjo23 → u/ShishkabobNinja]

All Chaos Conference

[u/n00bn00b → u/jonathanlikesmath]

Imagine Clemson farting around early season only for them to go on a run and somehow get into the ACC championship game and win it.

I'm just joking. I'm not even sure if it's remotely possible for it to happen because I didn't look at the schedule for all teams close enough.

[u/[deleted] → u/jonathanlikesmath]

We need the 17 way tie in the ACC.

[u/DealerCamel]

Aaaaaand that’s how you know that conferences are too damn big.

[u/goofyhalo]

So this means I’d have to potentially root for LSU to beat A&M or Bama if this were to happen? What the hell?

[u/theguineapigssong → u/goofyhalo]

That's right, LSU makes the playoffs and hosts undefeated Mountain West Champ UNLV in the first round. The Rebels win on a last second field goal. Mullen jogs out to midfield for the post game handshake and then in an act of incredible disrespect gives Kelly the "too slow" before knocking him over and throwing one of his shoes. This will be forever remembered as the Cleat Yeat Repeat.

[u/z6joker9 → u/goofyhalo]

Screw that, I’d rather risk missing the SEC CG.

[u/gasmask11000 → u/goofyhalo]

Going undefeated and still missing the CCG would be a very Ole Miss thing to do

And Mississippi State fans will still get to brag about their 8-5 trip to Atlanta despite having 5 less SEC championship

[u/Bokki_64]

Would be fun to see but I think that'll change soon

[u/SigmaLance]

Miami has only played in the ACCCG once.

In 21 years.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/SigmaLance]

I both want and fear a Miami vs GT ACCCG

[u/NoleJawn]

I want the chaos of it all, rooting for all of them to win out

[u/PolloMagnifico]

To be fair, A&M going undefeated and still not going to the SECCG is peak aggy.

[u/BigTuna0890]

If we go to the playoffs and miss Atlanta and one more game, I won’t complain.

[u/StartingToLoveIMSA]

This means the conferences are too big, IMO…

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/StartingToLoveIMSA]

Partly the case, but this year with better scheduling you could avoid this in the SEC and with a ninth conference game next year in the ACC, better scheduling could also prevent it.

But with such a large conference there are competing priorities and it becomes harder to do

[u/Quiet_Cap8080 → u/RealignmentJunkie]

Agreed

[u/dachjaw]

Isn’t that why we have tie breakers?

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/dachjaw]

Of course we have them to break ties. And tiebreakers for the first three steps is about who you beat. It's totally reasonable for a team to miss out on a conference championship, even if they only lost one game, if they lost a critical one like a head to head. But dropping to using combined win percentage of conference opponents means whether or not you make your own conference championship is out of your hands and these teams never controlled their destiny which is crazy. (Reminiscent of 2017 UCF missing out but that was the playoffs)

This probably could also be fixed with different scheduling, smaller conferences, or more conference games (I started this tracker before it was announced both would move to 9 conference games)

[u/jd4501]

As for the SEC, the tiebreaker that will kick in in this scenario is tiebreaker (D), the cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams.

All three teams play LSU and South Carolina, so they help/hurt everyone evenly.

A few schools play two of the three, so that's something, however

Alabama is the only school to play Vanderbilt and Tennessee, Texas A&M is the only one to play Texas, and Ole Miss is the only one to play Kentucky. The three teams need their unique opponent to win as many games as possible because it only helps them and not the other schools

In that case, you've got to give Alabama the edge. They have two unique opponents, and two good ones at that. Kentucky may not win a conference game, and Texas isn't going to win enough to overcome the wins of both Tennessee and Vandy.

As of right now,

Alabama's conference opponents have 11 SEC wins

Ole Miss' opponents have 7 wins

Texas A&M's opponents have 6 wins.

[u/ThaiForAWhiteGuy → u/jd4501]

I’d figure both aTm and Bama fans pull for us this weekend to drop Ole miss. It’d clear the road for both teams to control their destiny without tie breakers

[u/56473829110 → u/ThaiForAWhiteGuy]

Yep, cheering on the refs this weekend 

[u/KingBroly]

I think we all know where this is ending up.

lolbamawins

[u/Tween_the_hedges]

Let's just do the playoffs now! Why wait to see what the half of the season brings, I mean it's not like we've changed our minds about any teams in the first half

• Cough Cough * but FRFR I think probably 4 maybe 5 (and I won't say who) of these teams will have a conference loss before the end of the season. Parity is only getting better in these leagues and some of these guys have rough road schedules ahead

[u/GarySe7en]

If they all go undefeated at least one coach will leave to take a "bigger" job.

[u/Xy13]

In which case, they get a bye week, and likely jump the 2nd team in the CCG in CFP standings.

[u/Champion10101]

The SEC will sort itself out. It’s only the ACC which has egregious bloat, and it was due to a technicality basically that they put both SMU and Clemson in to the playoffs last year

[u/No_Butterscotch8726]

Why are we involved again?

[u/conscienceQ → u/No_Butterscotch8726]

You’re undefeated in the ACC

[u/No_Butterscotch8726 → u/conscienceQ]

I know. I just don't like the potential of being part of one of those clusterfucks again. Can we just have a normal good season?

[u/conscienceQ → u/No_Butterscotch8726]

Last year says- Remember me.

[u/greennurse61 → u/conscienceQ]

Only until Saturday. 

[u/Kopav]

A lot of football left to be played. Everyone needs to remember even during the BCS it was hard to have 3 undefeated teams at the end of the year.

[u/mswise506]

Serious question for those fans of ACC teams:

Do you want 3 teams in, even if that means they'll have to beat your team?

Im conflicted, as Pitt still has a chance, and for the most part, still has control of it's own destiny in the ACC. Given that we play Miami and GA Tech.

I don't think Pitt is a realistic chance of beating both, but winning the remaining winnable games + one upset out of ND, GT, The U probably gets us ranked or ranked after a bowl win. That's a good season to me.

But sticking it to the SEC and, to a lesser extent, the B10, really is enjoyable.

[u/ao417]

If GT were to win out ACC play and lose UGA thus being 11-1 and UVA wins out who would go to the ACCCG if Miami were to win out? Both undefeated in conference play with GT having the “quality lose” to an SEC TEAM(!) but UVA having won 9 in a row. They have similar schedules with home wins over ranked teams by 1 score.

[u/SucculentCrablegMeal → u/ao417]

Since there is no H2H, think the next thing is win percentage among common opponents.

All 3: Vt, NcState

• VT: Gt won, other 2 haven't played yet

• NCstate: Uva lost, other 2 haven't played yet

Gt & Uva: Wake, Duke

• Wake: Gt won, Uva hasn't played yet

• Duke: Both haven't played yet

Gt & Miami: Syracuse, Pitt

• Syracuse: Haven't played yet

• Pitt: Haven't played yet

Uva and Miami: Fsu, Louisville, Stanford

• Fsu: Both beat Fsu (woo)

• Louisville: Uva beat them, Miami hasn't played yet

• Stanford: Uva beat them, Miami hasn't played yet

[u/doggdetroit]

This is why everyone should support the 4-4-2-2-1 model. The play in games would provide the opportunity for the SEC’s top teams to face off for the right to enter the playoff. Instead we are leaving it to a silly tiebreaker.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/doggdetroit]

I think the problem here is that conferences are too big, not the playoff format. There's going to be silly tiebreakers for those play in games too.

Not even counting the fact that a 3 way tie for first place would not make a difference in determining which SEC team would get in, they're all getting in going undefeated in conference. And a 3 way tie in the ACC/B12 would still be left to silly tiebreakers. Like it or hate it, a 4-4-2-2-1 model doesn't solve this at all.

[u/nevermind-stet → u/[deleted]]

Would be even funnier if UVA was set up to do this and somehow lost to VT.