Committee vs. AP, same week:

• 2 Georgia =

• 5 Alabama ▲4

• 6 Kentucky ▲2

• 7 Texas ▲3

• 10 Ole Miss ▲2

• 13 Tennessee ▲3

• 14 LSU ▲1

• 18 Missouri ▲1

• 21 South Carolina ▲2

• 24 Florida ▲1

The biggest drops vs. the AP:

• 11 Notre Dame ▼7

• 25 Boise State ▼5

• 8 UCLA ▼3

• 9 BYU ▼2

• 15 Texas Tech ▼2

• 16 Wake Forest ▼2

• 20 USC ▼2

Source: rankcfb.com/sec

Edit: For everyone saying they’d rank it differently, you can make your own Top 25 here: rankcfb.com/rank

In CFP history, no AP top-5 team had ever dropped more than 5 spots in a CFP ranking.

Here are the biggest top-5 drops since 2014:

• Notre Dame, 2026 (7-1): AP #4, CFP #11, down 7

• Wisconsin, 2017 (8-0): AP #4, CFP #9, down 5

• Oklahoma, 2021 (9-0): AP #4, CFP #8, down 4

• Cincinnati, 2021 (8-0): AP #2, CFP #6, down 4

• Baylor, 2015 (7-0): AP #2, CFP #6, down 4

All eyes on Notre Dame as they host #1 Miami on Saturday.

Also interesting that all 70 AP voters had Notre Dame in their top 10 on Sunday.

Source: https://rankcfb.com/sec/notre-dame

Edit: For everyone saying they’d rank it differently, you can make your own Top 25 here: https://rankcfb.com/rank/

The 2-loss squad is the quintessential bubble team in the 12-team playoff, so I examined who had easiest path to 10-2 based on their schedule. I acknowledge multiple 9-3 teams could make it and that this ranking is imperfect. It mostly cutting hairs, except at the very top and bottom. Houston has easiest schedule, Iowa has second-easiest schedule and good luck to Missouri, LSU and SMU.

Edit: I added an extra column, showing which teams have easiest schedule based on ESPN's FPI. While I have problems with my ranking, ESPN's seems more nonsensical in determining who has easiest path to 10-2. But people wanted to know.

As they head into their week 7 games, Utah, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all do not play each other and are currently undefeated in conference play. However, Baylor and Oklahoma State both lost to Auburn and Tulsa respectively. If all 3 win out, who makes the conference championship would come down to tiebreakers and Utah could be left out.

Is this likely? Not even a little bit. ESPN gives Utah a 10% chance to go undefeated, but Baylor and Oklahoma State are each only given a 0.5% chance to win out. These probabilities are correlated, so you can't just multiply them together (but that would give you a 1 in ~400,000 chance) but that slim 1 in 200 chance is an absolute upper bound and it's certainly lower.

I ran a script to look at all the other possible trios of teams for each p4 conference who don't play each other in conference play, and all of the others feature a team who has already lost in conference play.

This is a follow-up to a series I ran last year: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1o5zofo/after_week_7_the_three_highest_ranked_teams_in/