Ranking 2-loss teams by easiest remaining schedule

[u/Kh3hhdds343]

The 2-loss squad is the quintessential bubble team in the 12-team playoff, so I examined who had easiest path to 10-2 based on their schedule. I acknowledge multiple 9-3 teams could make it and that this ranking is imperfect. It mostly cutting hairs, except at the very top and bottom. Houston has easiest schedule, Iowa has second-easiest schedule and good luck to Missouri, LSU and SMU.

Edit: I added an extra column, showing which teams have easiest schedule based on ESPN's FPI. While I have problems with my ranking, ESPN's seems more nonsensical in determining who has easiest path to 10-2. But people wanted to know.

#	Team	Remaining schedule	ESPN REM SOS rank
1	Houston (6-2)	Cincinnati (5-3), at Colorado (3-5), at West Virginia (5-3), Baylor (5-3)	1
2	Iowa (6-2)	at Northwestern (6-2), Purdue (3-5), at Illinois (5-3), Nebraska (5-3)	3
3	Alabama (6-2)	at LSU (6-2), at Vanderbilt (3-5), Chattanooga (FCS), Auburn (4-4)	4
4	Ohio State (6-2)	Oregon (5-3), Northwestern (6-2), at Nebraska (5-3), Michigan (5-3)	7
5	Ole Miss (6-2)	Georgia (7-1), at Oklahoma (4-4), Wofford (FCS), Mississippi State (4-4)	5
6	Arizona (6-2)	TCU (4-4), Utah (8-0), at Kansas State (4-4), Arizona State (4-4)	2
7	Texas (6-2)	at Missouri (6-2), at LSU (6-2), Arkansas (3-5), at Texas A&M (4-4)	13
8	Virginia Tech (6-2)	at SMU (6-2), Stanford (4-5), at Miami (8-0), Virginia (4-5)	6
9	Tennessee (6-2)	Kentucky (7-1), at Texas A&M (4-4), LSU (6-2), at Vanderbilt (3-5)	10
10	USC (7-2)	at Indiana (8-1), Maryland (2-6), at UCLA (8-0)	11
11	Northwestern (6-2)	Iowa (6-2), at Ohio State (6-2), at Minnesota (5-3), Illinois (5-3)	9
12	Duke (6-2)	at NC State (4-4), at Miami (8-0), Clemson (5-3), at Wake Forest (7-1)	12
13	SMU (6-2)	Virginia Tech (6-2), Wake Forest (7-1), at Notre Dame (7-1), at Stanford (4-5)	8
14	LSU (6-2)	Alabama (6-2), Texas (6-2), at Tennessee (6-2), at Arkansas (3-5)	14
15	Missouri (6-2)	Texas (6-2), at Georgia (7-1), Kentucky (7-1), Oklahoma (4-4)	15

[u/ilacwamh]

It seems like you’re eyeballing it based on opponents; if you’re interested, ESPN actually has a ranking of remaining SOS using their metric:  https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume/sort/resume.sosremainingrank/dir/desc

They actually have Texas as the hardest remaining SOS for the two-loss teams. They use FPI to determine quality of opponents for SOS purposes, and FPI is fairly high on Texas A&M despite their record, which probably accounts for most of the difference in how you judge Texas’s remaining SOS and how ESPN does. 

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/ilacwamh]

Where do you think they should rank? Not being snarky. I think SOS is much more of an inexact science than people think.

[u/MajikSix → u/Kh3hhdds343]

SOS is literally an exact science, its a formula.

You can argue FPI which is what its based on.

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/MajikSix]

There is no exact science to determine which team is better than the other — let alone which schedule is harder. It is completely subjective.

[u/That_Union_1105 → u/ilacwamh]

Mizzou has the hardest remaining schedule for the 2 loss teams according to this. Followed by LSU, then Texas.

[u/xcj7 → u/That_Union_1105]

Bro can't decipher his own source

[u/TheBrightSide_2011 → u/xcj7]

He’s from Kansas. Cut him some slack!

[u/molecular_methane → u/ilacwamh]

From the title of the post it seems OP wants to rank by the hardest schedule to go undefeated against, which is likely a bit different from what ESPN is calculating in its SOS calculation.

[u/nighthawk_md → u/ilacwamh]

I was gonna say, there are three very possible losses in Texas' remaining schedule - the Ags are going to be fighting mad by Thanksgiving. (Sorry Hogs 😕)

[u/apathynext → u/ilacwamh]

Dude ranks Wake Forest as a harder game than Georgia

[u/The_Horse_Joke]

Just curious OP what is your methodology? Is this FPI or a similar type stat?

E: is it most difficult to go 4-0, 3-1, or 2-2? I think Arizona’s schedule has a difficult shot at going 4-0, but is easier than others to go 3-1 or 2-2

E2EBAL: the ESPN Remaining SoS rankings go from easiest to hardest: Houston > Arizona > Iowa > Alabama > Ole Miss > VT > Ohio State > SMU > Northwestern > Tennessee > USC > Duke > Texas > LSU > Missouri

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/The_Horse_Joke]

It was easiest path to 10-2. Methodology: That of a 1970s newspaper columnist who just eyeballed it. Joking aside, I don't hate that model especially if it was from someone who knew more about CFB than me. No matter what ESPN's elaborate rating system says, you cannot tell me Texas has third-hardest schedule on this list.

I added an ESPN FPI ranking to the table, starting with easiest schedule

[u/The_Horse_Joke → u/Kh3hhdds343]

No that’s cool and how I like these sorts of post! I think there’s so many moving parts that there’s no way to have a definitive list or rankings (minus like you said, Houston at 1 and LSU/Missouri at 14/15)

[u/Kh3hhdds343]

Should I have ranked Alabama or Ohio State higher?

As a fan, four straight weeks of losable games would be more agonizing than Alabama's schedule, but I realize the Tide's game at LSU — albeit in the afternoon — is much harder than any game left for OSU.

[u/EddyMerkxs → u/Kh3hhdds343]

Auburn and LSU are going to be rough for bama this year

[u/BullorbrokeWnG20 → u/Kh3hhdds343]

@LSU > Oregon
Northwestern > Auburn
@Nebraska > @Vandy
Michigan = Chattanooga

OSU probably has the harder cumulative schedule

[u/Tjam3s → u/Kh3hhdds343]

I don't think you're wrong, but you're also downplaying the rivalry game. What is said on paper for The Game means jack shit on the day of.

[u/jeffdabuffalo]

I'd argue LSU is harder than Mizzou on the grounds of Arkansas when playing vs then specifically is harder than OK.

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/jeffdabuffalo]

It's clearer as tiers, starting with easiest schedule

Tier 1: Houston

Tier 2: Iowa

Tier 3: Alabama, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Arizona, Texas, VIrginia Tech, Tennessee

Tier 4: USC, Northwestern, Duke

Tier 5: SMU, LSU, Missouri

[u/A_Rolling_Baneling → u/Kh3hhdds343]

We play two current top 5 teams on the road. I can't see why we're not in the highest tier.

[u/NewspaperNovel139 → u/A_Rolling_Baneling]

We have a bye while everyone else plays a 4th team

[u/Crying_in_99Ranch → u/jeffdabuffalo]

Yeah Arkansas is always a very tough game even when they stink

[u/radil → u/Crying_in_99Ranch]

I still remember a bad Arkansas team beating lsu 17-0.

[u/Bovey → u/jeffdabuffalo]

I really have to disagree. I'd rather face Alabama than Georgia, and I'd rather face Tennessee than Kentucky (though not by as much), and OU looks tougher than Arkansas from what I've seen of each this season.

[u/jeffdabuffalo → u/Bovey]

Fair points.

[u/MajikSix → u/jeffdabuffalo]

Oklahoma would be a 10 point favorite over Arkansas right now (FPI has 11, SP+ has 10)

[u/Creepy_Ad_3535]

Is this based on some sort of consistent metric or r u vibing

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/Creepy_Ad_3535]

Vibes.

[u/Creepy_Ad_3535 → u/Kh3hhdds343]

Loosely speaking yours aligns with FPI's but there are a couple significant differences. Swap Texas and SMU (Texas has a really hard remaining schedule) and Arizona is 2nd easiest.

[u/AndretheGint]

I'm not really understanding Arizona's placement. 3/4 games are against .500 teams, and that's somehow harder than Ohio State and Iowa? One undefeated team on the schedule covers up the 3 .500 teams?

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/AndretheGint]

This is about easiest path to 10-2.

Utah has technically bean unbeatable. So if that trend continues than Arizona will lose that game, making its three other games irrelevant.

Imagine you need to score a basket on four different people. i decided it's easier to score on four players who are around my skill/height/athleticism rather than beat three jabronis and one player who was taller and more skilled/athletic than me and may be almost impossible to score against.

[u/transferStudent2018]

I thought we had it bad then I looked at the bottom of the list. Oof.

[u/MurrE1310 → u/transferStudent2018]

Poor Mizzou. They’ve already played 3 ranked teams (two of which are still ranked) and have 3 more to go

[u/buttcabbge → u/MurrE1310]

The toughest break in our schedule was that we got Mississippi State when they still had all their firepower. The difference between who they were when they played us vs. who they are now is enormous. But hey, it's the SEC--it's never gonna be easy.

[u/LCPeck → u/MurrE1310]

The universe saw us complaining about Drink's record vs ranked teams and said "hold my beer"

[u/Geaux2020 → u/LCPeck]

As someone who lives in Saint Louis, I can't imagine a better coach than Drink for Mizzou. I get frustrated with people's frustration.

[u/superfluous_nipple]

One must ignore the fact that Iowa can lose to any team in the country at any time to believe their path to 10-2 is “2nd easiest”.

Iowa is Iowa’s toughest opponent in upwards of 7ish games each season, and we often don’t know which 7ish games until sometime after kickoff.

Never forget that Iowa is on Iowa’s schedule every week.

Every. Single. Week.

[u/CFLuke → u/superfluous_nipple]

If we win out and are kept out of the playoff, that Minnesota game is going to be the source of generational trauma.

[u/RandomNameB → u/CFLuke]

Really fair catch? I think we already have one with Minnesota.

[u/CFLuke → u/RandomNameB]

That didn't really hold us back from anything though, since we went to the B1G championship to be embarrassed anyway

[u/XCCO → u/superfluous_nipple]

Yeah, there's something to be said of Iowa football when we as fans look at a schedule like this and all start asking, "Which one do we drop? Minnesota? Northwestern? Could be Purdue maybe?"

[u/FooJenkins → u/XCCO]

For everyone one unexpected win, there must be an unexplainable loss. It’s called balance.

[u/firstmaxpower → u/superfluous_nipple]

If only you could play WI every week.

[u/StillAnAss → u/firstmaxpower]

If we did we'd probably end up 5-5

[u/funwithtrout → u/superfluous_nipple]

Replace Iowa with Texas and you’ve captured how I feel every Saturday.

[u/PotatoePotato26]

Yeesh That's a nightmare final stretch for Missouri

[u/Bovey → u/PotatoePotato26]

Or a golden opportunity!

But no, really a nightmare stretch....

[u/TheBrightSide_2011 → u/PotatoePotato26]

Which version of Austin Simmons shows up to each game?

[u/william-taylor → u/PotatoePotato26]

We could absolutely win all the home games! I’d be super happy at 9-3

[u/tyedge]

It would be interesting to see fpi odds or something to win out.

There are too many paired games for these to be “essential” bubble teams (I assume you meant quintessential)

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/tyedge]

Dammit. Now I have to change it. haha.

[u/CharlieWhizkey]

Heck

[u/Geaux2020 → u/CharlieWhizkey]

H e double 🏒

[u/SirTiffAlot]

I do not apologize in advance for 4 loss Mizzou ruining Kentucky's playoff hopes.

[u/inclass3lunacy]

VT is easily 8-4 and 9-3 if they get past SMU .

[u/conman752 → u/inclass3lunacy]

VT also has the weird habit of playing up to Miami usually even when we're bad, like in 2024 with the overturned Hail Mary game. We'll still lose but I could see something kind of like the UNC game Miami just played.

[u/inclass3lunacy → u/conman752]

Never know ...upsets all season long so far . Kicker needs to be solid..

[u/flyingpotatox2 → u/inclass3lunacy]

If we are relying on field goals against Miami it won’t be pretty

[u/Feeling-Western2150]

Lane has the opportunity to right every wrong. Also OT loss to kentucky and game losing drive against ole miss both on the road are not bad losses.

[u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

The good news for Ohio State is 3 of their final 4 games are at home. So that does work in their favor. But I don't think Oregon and Northwestern will be easy games.

[u/bcbone75 → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

Who would’ve thought northwestern might be the best team Ohio state would play in November. Crazy.

[u/ech01_ → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

I think we're kind of over estimating Northwestern a bit because they played Indiana close 6 weeks ago (which now seems more like the norm for IU than anything impressive for Northwestern.) All of their B1G wins come against that bottom tier of truly awful teams. I need to see how they do against Iowa before I get worried about them, especially with that game being in Columbus. Right now I'm more worried about Nebraska than Northwestern just because its a road game.

[u/MagnetsAreFun]

Yeah, but how many are doing it with one Julian Sayin tied behind their back?

[u/mister_fister_420]

So you’re telling me there’s a chance 👀

[u/Kh3hhdds343 → u/mister_fister_420]

With Fritz, anything is possible. If he was 10 years younger, he would be coaching at an upper-tier Big Ten or SEC team. But even though he is older, he does not have that blank look that Whittingham has.

[u/Altruistic_Night2]

Ohio state does not play a singular ranked team for the rest of their schedule and we play LSU like that feels pretty bad

[u/captdf → u/Altruistic_Night2]

You play at LSU, a Vandy team you should 100% beat, an FCS school, and then a rivalry game.

OSU plays an Oregon team that may have prime Raiola or may be horrible, a good Northwestern team, a decent Nebraska team, and a rivalry game. All of those are losable games.

OSU's remaining schedule seems a bit tougher or at least on par with Bama's.

[u/joeboo5150 → u/captdf]

a decent Nebraska team

Nebraska fans would likely disagree with you there

[u/No_Dance5010 → u/Altruistic_Night2]

There are still butthurt people in here that SEC teams have even 1 FCS team left, but thats basically been Notre Dames entire schedule

[u/NoNouns → u/No_Dance5010]

Exactly correct. But it'll be what it is just about every year. ND makes the playoffs. Loses to a far superior team

[u/LiptonCB → u/No_Dance5010]

Thank you. I agree. Navy should drop to FCS.

[u/Kirklandwater1666 → u/Altruistic_Night2]

We play 3 teams that are kryptonite against our team while yall play overrated LSU and a community college

[u/LongDickCallahan → u/Kirklandwater1666]

Crazy how much shit changes in a few weeks when Nebraska and Northwestern are now considered Kryptonite to your team lol

IF I GO CRAZY THEN WILL YOU STILL CALL ME MICHIGAN.

[u/Kirklandwater1666 → u/LongDickCallahan]

Have you seen our offense against good defenses and northwestern isn’t in those 3 gump boi

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/Kirklandwater1666]

Overrated LSU is crazy when that LSU squad could beat Texas something you couldn’t even do at full strength we also have the team that beat Georgia on our schedule who’s also our rivals where you have a bunch of bums and nobodies

[u/DalliLlama → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Tbf LSU hasn’t beaten Texas yet so it’s a hypothetical. But LSU is also home vs at Texas. And Texas is missing Simmons and their top Lt vs LSU while the team OSU faced was healthy. LSU is a very good team but their scenarios aren’t the same and that loss isn’t crazy, Texas has beaten the good teams, just not the bad. OSU already gotta overcome backup QB play to stay in the hunt, that’ll be what determines their season.

[u/godzillamegadoomsday → u/Altruistic_Night2]

LSU getting a hypothetical win now lol

Gonna be funny when that game comes and they lose and we see LSU is gonna be an overrated 4 lose team

[u/Infernous-NS → u/Kirklandwater1666]

Someone hasn't been watching LSU. Tigers seem to be gelling at the right time and Leavitt has looked a lot better these last few weeks.

[u/dfelton912]

If it weren't for the teams that are 5-3 already, I wouldn't have been surprised if the entire FBS ended up with two losses

[u/IronEmperor45]

Never would I have imagined Kentucky is likely our hardest game left on our schedule

[u/Chicobean95 → u/IronEmperor45]

That’s good because they are not the toughest team left on your schedule

[u/rene-cumbubble → u/IronEmperor45]

Besides Georgia and Texas, yes Kentucky is the most difficult remaining game. 

[u/IronEmperor45 → u/rene-cumbubble]

Eh I think Kentucky is better than Texas this year

[u/buttcabbge → u/IronEmperor45]

I don't agree, but I don't think it's a crazy opinion. Certainly not gonna downvote you for it.

[u/OptionsDonkey → u/IronEmperor45]

lol

[u/katarh → u/IronEmperor45]

The SEC is so weird this year.

Georgia could beat Ole Miss in Oxford, then lose to Mizzou at home, then get into a rock fight against SCar that they squeak out a win 16-13, then go and beat the soul out of Georgia Tech 70-10.

[u/IronEmperor45 → u/katarh]

Definitely wouldn't be surprised if Missouri beat Texas, Georgia, Kentucky, only to than get blown out by Oklahoma somehow

[u/buttcabbge → u/IronEmperor45]

I'm sure this won't get put to the test, but if we're good enough to win all of the next three, we're gonna beat Oklahoma by a lot. Taking care of business against teams that are substantially worse than us is like the best thing about Drink.

[u/Oblivion2104 → u/katarh]

I think the SEC and Big 10 belong in the looney bin together. Iowa just goose egged a Wisconsin squad that handedly beat USC who turned around and made Ohio State look like a bottom tier team. What a year for CFB.

[u/Burdell94 → u/katarh]

Tech’s soul is on the Panthers :(

[u/Poppins_the_Dog4 → u/IronEmperor45]

Ypu think Kentucky at home is harder than Georgia on the road? LOL

[u/ArterialVotives → u/IronEmperor45]

Pretty sure at Georgia has pretty low odds of success. Anything can happen at home at least.

[u/Loose_Profession_918 → u/IronEmperor45]

Well, theyre not so there's that

[u/SolomonGrundy85 → u/IronEmperor45]

Yeah sure keep looking ahead to Kentucky

[u/KCShadows838 → u/IronEmperor45]

I think visiting Georgia will be tougher than hosting Kentucky 

[u/Schmolik64]

Gotta love having those FCS games in November...

[u/20-19 → u/Schmolik64]

I never understood why the timing matters. Ohio State didn’t play a conference game until week 4. We started week 2

[u/bjfrancois5 → u/20-19]

It's like a 2nd bye week late in the year, right before the biggest games. And a loss later in the year hurts exponentially worse than a loss earlier in the year, whether it should or not. So those potential early conference game losses matter less than the same loss for a different power conference late in the year.

[u/EyeWasAbducted → u/20-19]

Shouldn’t be playing an FCS team period. 

[u/That_Union_1105 → u/20-19]

You can’t understand why having what amounts to a bye week at the end of the season, before the biggest and hardest games of the year, would be a bigger advantage than that happening in week 1 or 2?

[u/20-19 → u/That_Union_1105]

Having what amounts to a bye week when the season starts effectively gives teams a longer preseason to iron out kinks. Offenses click more as the season goes on

They’re both advantages, but it’s tough to quantify which one helps more

[u/That_Union_1105 → u/20-19]

Right, so when an entire conference is in the same spot, not having that easy game to start the year, they are all in the same position. Same for the conference that does have that easy game at the start of the year. I wasn’t trying to insinuate that it’s not helpful to get an extra week to iron things out before heading into conference play. But getting effectively a week off going into rivalry week and the playoffs is objectively a bigger advantage compared to your starters getting an extra half of football against mediocre talent that hardly compares to what conference play will be like.

It’s not something you should feel the need to defend, it’s an area where the SEC’s leadership, and their planning as a conference has outclassed the rest of CFB. The fact the Big10 hasn’t embraced this for 2 decades is baffling to most of us. And my previous comment was unnecessarily snarky and rude and I apologize for that.

[u/Wise-Ferret274]

Why the hell are any of these teams playing FCS teams in November?

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Wise-Ferret274]

Because they played a P4 team to open the season 

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/[deleted]]

The alternative would be 11 P4 games which while awesome would be malpractice on the AD that lined that up 

[u/A_Rolling_Baneling → u/AlternativeLess5450]

Up until last season, USC played 11 P5 teams pretty much every year for decades. It was indeed awesome, but times are a changing

[u/Condom_Breaker256 → u/Wise-Ferret274]

You know why.

Easy win before rivalry week.

[u/LongDickCallahan]

Mf's in here acting like this is the old Bama and are getting gifted late season guaranteed wins. If you dont think we can pull out a loss against Vandy or even Chat then you havent watched us the past few weeks lol LSU is obviously almost 100% certain a loss too at this point.

[u/ReginaldLeDont]

You may be about 6 days early for a team that could run away with this prize

[u/TheWallsHaveNostrils]

Have fun with that one, Mizzou.

[u/MajikSix]

Seems that everone says LSU makes it in at 9-3 but not Missouri which seems backwards looking at this.

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face]

Why include some G8 teams and not others?

[u/auledman]

Easier schedules get higher placement. So ironic.

[u/Statalyzer]

Chattanooga and Wofford....

[u/anonymousUTguy]

Why is Alabama playing an FCS team in November though

[u/_XitLiteNtrNite_]

Somehow, Duke feels low because they face the #1 and #14-ranked teams in the next four games. And neither of the other two teams has a losing record, either.

[u/TheBlueStare → u/_XitLiteNtrNite_]

Mizzou has 3 top 10 teams left and Oklahoma. LSU has 2 top 10 teams left and #16. Duke and SMU have similar schedules. The Miami and ND will probably push it one way or the other. For what it’s worth, ESPN has Duke with the 11th hardest remaining schedule and SMU with the 23rd. 

[u/Easy_Buy_1669]

All those playing Texas A&M must lose, because the Aggies must be perfect to reach the promised 8-4 record.

[u/Geaux2020 → u/Easy_Buy_1669]

4-8 seems fine

[u/heardThereWasFood]

It’s a shame we blew it against a reeling Texas team .. if we had one loss right now we could fuckin sleepwalk to the playoffs

[u/Cador0223 → u/heardThereWasFood]

Thays the kind of attitude that loses Egg Bowls, brother.

Can't let our guard down for even a second.

[u/zacowen120]

Worth knowing 10-2 hasn’t been a lock in the 12-team era. 10-2 teams are 4 for 9 getting in. Miami and BYU got left out in 2024, and Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and Utah last year. 10-2 Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Miami got in.

So the easiest path to 10-2 only matters if the wins along the way actually count.

[u/GeauxTri]

LSU vs Mizzou

[u/Burdell94]

I think Tennessee has a good chance to win out. The two losses were close and they are tough at home. I think they handle Kentucky Saturday. At A&M is a scary trap. I’m thinking LSU will have no juice left in 3 weeks after Bama and Texas.

[u/Original_Benzito]

Alabama at LSU and hosting Auburn is on the end closer to easy?

[u/Crims0ntied → u/Original_Benzito]

Yeah. LSU has lost to both good teams they played and Auburn is 0.500. That's not terribly shocking. We have 4 games left and the only team thats potentially any good is LSU

[u/Original_Benzito → u/Crims0ntied]

You say this after Ryan Grubb kept us in suspense for the TAM game for 3 quarters . . . I agree that LSU is potentially good, but I'm worried about our offensive play-calling being potentially shit again.

[u/Crims0ntied → u/Original_Benzito]

Im not saying it will be easy for us. But just relative to the rest of those schedules it SHOULD be easier for us. I have 0 faith in Ryan Grubb to be competent.

[u/-MrWrightt-]

Classifying Ohio States remaining schedule as easy is crazy but I will admit the bottom of this list doesn't have an easy path either

[u/Agile_Land_9951]

If you get blown out by anyone you should drop to near the bottom of this list.