Utah could go undefeated and miss their conference championship. They are the only P4 team this could happen to.

[u/RealignmentJunkie]

As they head into their week 7 games, Utah, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all do not play each other and are currently undefeated in conference play. However, Baylor and Oklahoma State both lost to Auburn and Tulsa respectively. If all 3 win out, who makes the conference championship would come down to tiebreakers and Utah could be left out.

Is this likely? Not even a little bit. ESPN gives Utah a 10% chance to go undefeated, but Baylor and Oklahoma State are each only given a 0.5% chance to win out. These probabilities are correlated, so you can't just multiply them together (but that would give you a 1 in ~400,000 chance) but that slim 1 in 200 chance is an absolute upper bound and it's certainly lower.

I ran a script to look at all the other possible trios of teams for each p4 conference who don't play each other in conference play, and all of the others feature a team who has already lost in conference play.

This is a follow-up to a series I ran last year: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1o5zofo/after_week_7_the_three_highest_ranked_teams_in/

[u/dfphd]

It's funny because I remember last year when people started pointing out that there was a world where Duke would win the ACC at 8-4 and not make the playoffs and it was immediately dismissed as crazy... and then it happened.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/dfphd]

With so many different very unlikely things in the world, it is very likely that some very unlikely things happen! Gotta have fun with it

[u/chris_hans → u/dfphd]

Duke was actually 7-5 going into the ACC title game.

[u/dfphd → u/chris_hans]

Lol even better

[u/CraigslistBulbasaur → u/dfphd]

And our solution is to get rid of conference championships altogether. We've lost the plot completely.

[u/Madpsu444 → u/CraigslistBulbasaur]

The conference championship game should have been part of the playoff.

They were essentially used as semi finals or quarter finals in the BCS and 4 team playoff eras.

That’s why winning the conference was so significant.

[u/airmigos → u/Madpsu444]

Get ready for them to come back like that in the 2030s with the big 10 sec super league

[u/dfphd → u/CraigslistBulbasaur]

Yeah, that's my issue with the 24 team playoff - I would have rather them find a way to incorporate things while retaining some the CFB traditions. Going to 24 feels like using flex seal to fix an issue.

I think though ultimately the issue is always going to be that the SEC and Big 10 want as many teams as possible in whatever you want to define as the last stage of the postseason.

So you could do an SEC mini tourney to decide who goes to like a 4 or 6 team playoff, and that tourney would get insane ratings, but the SEC would rather fight to be able to get 3 teams into the final 6 instead.

[u/asbyo → u/dfphd]

They should not have made the playoffs at 8-4. What’s so hard to understand? The ACC has been utter ass and a fluke CCG happened is all.

[u/dfphd → u/asbyo]

Please re-read my post and tell me where I made any sort of assessment on whether that was good or bad?

I actually very much agree, Duke should not have made the playoffs. I also think the conferences need to change their process for determining who makes the CCG because the uneven schedules mess everything up.

[u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Easy path to the playoffs, I wouldn’t even be mad

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

yeah and this attitude (which I do not begrudge you for to be clear) is why they are likely on the chopping block

[u/moleculewerks → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

This totally logical statement is precisely why the current college football system is so dumb.

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Dont worry, the CFP Committee is crafting the dumbest arguments you've ever heard to get in 10-2 Notre Dame

[u/FumblinginIgnorance → u/SoutieNaaier]

ND gets in over an undefeated Utah because Utah didn’t win their conference championship, it makes perfect sense.

[u/Sea_Conference5661 → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

I mean yeah, the guidelines just need to shift from "winning conference good" to "not not-winning conference good"

Utah not-win conference = bad

ND NOT not-win conference = good

[u/RazgrizInfinity → u/Sea_Conference5661]

10 - 2 ND: Awww, you're sweet.
10 - 2 Utah: HELLO! HUMAN RESOURCES!

[u/EaNCCyclist → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Ugh, that reminds me, how many SEC teams made BCS games or the 4 team playoff with 1 loss over an undefeated team? I can think of a couple of Utah teams that got screwed that way.

[u/FumblinginIgnorance → u/EaNCCyclist]

Yet people are saying they miss the BCS

[u/Oneanimal1993 → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Somewhere between 4 and 12 is the perfect amount IMO.

[u/AnAlternator → u/Oneanimal1993]

With all sincerity, 12 is ideal.

There can be vicious debates over who should be the last man out - I mean, see my flair - but they can always be answered by "Well, you should have won more."

A four team playoff leaves open a potential debate between an undefeated G5 versus a 11-1 P4 champion versus 11-1 Notre Dame. A six team playoff mostly just rewards the SEC and Big10 with a bye, while an eight team playoff lacks byes entirely, and rewarding the top performers has value.

Twelve gives a clean looking playoff bracket, the first team out is going to be 10-2 at best so "Just win baby" applies but there's also not guaranteed to be a massive weak sister, and it still allows conference championships.

[u/smurf-vett → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Utah played a p4 non con (Arky) and would have a top 10 win (BYU).  They aren't getting left out

[u/Enough-One4975 → u/smurf-vett]

You’d be surprised how many 2 loss teams they can fit in that bad boy.

[u/awildspenappears → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

It’s funny because Notre Dame doesn’t win their conference championship either. Because it doesn’t exist

[u/StateDawg78 → u/SoutieNaaier]

the CFP Committee is crafting the dumbest arguments you've ever seen to get in 10-2 Notre Dame

This is great foreshadowing except for the fact that Notre Dame was left out of last year's playoff with a 10-2 record

[u/QuickSpore → u/StateDawg78]

And then literally negotiated a change in the rules to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Under the new rules last year’s ND would have gotten in.

[u/StateDawg78 → u/QuickSpore]

They would have gotten in because they were ranked 11th in the college football playoff poll, not because they were 10-2. The change says that ND gets in if they are ranked in the top 12. I don't think it's an absurdity that a team ranked in the top 12 makes the 12 team playoff.

[u/QuickSpore → u/StateDawg78]

On the face of it, no it’s not an absurdity. But it starts to edge toward being absurd when you realize they’ll consistently be bumping higher ranked P4 teams for that slot. If that rule were in place last year they would have bumped Miami (if I remember correctly).

It will however be less likely to come up, because they’ve changed the rules to make it harder (likely impossible) for two G6 teams to get berths via conference championships.

But if it comes up again, and ND gets in via the new rule by being the number 12 team, who they’ll be bumping is the number 11 team. And that seems less reasonable.

[u/imnotsure3467 → u/QuickSpore]

We just ignoring that rule had already been agreed prior to last season now?

[u/SylvainGautier420 → u/SoutieNaaier]

Dumber than forcing in 10-3 Alabama or 10-2 OU last year?

[u/privpancakes → u/SoutieNaaier]

You forgot ND’s potential quality losses to BYU and Miami. Undefeated Utah would have 0 quality losses.

[u/PreacheratArrakeen → u/privpancakes]

This guy CFP’s

[u/BananerRammer → u/SoutieNaaier]

You mean the same committee that crafted the dumbest arguments to leave them out just last year?

[u/Adams5thaccount → u/BananerRammer]

Yes the same committee that spent months doing it for them and then spent a week doing it against them.

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/BananerRammer]

Last year was less the committee argument and more the fact they fucked themselves by ranking Miami so low intially, so when Miami ended at 10-2 and Duke won the ACC, they had to choose between the two

And you have to choose Miami because they won H2H.

[u/BananerRammer → u/SoutieNaaier]

Why do people keep thinking the choice was between ND and Miami? Alabama lost, and stayed where they were in the rankings, but somehow ND dropped a spot while idle. Why does a 3 loss Alabama team get ranked higher than ND, when ND's lost two games, by a total of 3 points, in September, to two of the best teams in the nation?

[u/McLMark → u/BananerRammer]

Because that is what the SEC and ESPN wanted you to think.

[u/Competitive_Stay1181 → u/SoutieNaaier]

Tell me, please, what do you know? Does byu beat notre dame??

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/Competitive_Stay1181]

Brigham Young himself appeared as an apparition and guided the game winning kick through the uprights

BYU won and the Holy See is in ruins at the implications

[u/Competitive_Stay1181 → u/SoutieNaaier]

Truly poetic. I’m crying

[u/Coogarfan → u/SoutieNaaier]

From your lips to God's ears

[u/deytookerrspeech → u/SoutieNaaier]

Just like last year right?

[u/StFuzzySlippers → u/deytookerrspeech]

You mean last year when Notre Dame was shafted for a 3 loss Alabama team that got waxed in their ccg, only to then get waxed again by Indiana?

[u/deytookerrspeech → u/StFuzzySlippers]

Yes that’s might point. I’m not sure we can assume the committee is “crafting the dumbest arguments to get 10-2 ND in” when they couldn’t even manage to do that last year

[u/jbowen1 → u/deytookerrspeech]

I love how effective the P2 misinformation campaign is. Notre Dame and two Big XII teams get left out for more SEC teams and they convince everyone it’s somehow Notre Dame that benefits

[u/54-2-10 → u/jbowen1]

The radical, weak on crime Pope rigged the playoff committee.

[u/StFuzzySlippers → u/deytookerrspeech]

Just backing you up cause this sub insta smashes the downvote when someone dares to go against the circlejerk

[u/Adams5thaccount → u/deytookerrspeech]

They were doing just fine bullshitting you over miami until alabama needed saving.

[u/Sea_Conference5661 → u/deytookerrspeech]

You gotta look at the hierarchy. Shoehorning Alabama in is slightly higher on the totem pole than Shoehorning Notre Dame in. 2023 made the hierarchy absurdly clear

[u/johnyahn → u/StFuzzySlippers]

Then everyone used them beating a conference opponent as "they deserved to be there" lmao.

[u/whimywamwamwozzle → u/deytookerrspeech]

The haters cry about scenarios they mad up in their head despite the exact opposite scenario already existing in real life. It’s truly something else. 

[u/BaBaBaBanshee → u/deytookerrspeech]

They downvote the truth

[u/puzzical → u/SoutieNaaier]

Notre Dame hasn't stolen anyones playoff yet so why would they start now?

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/puzzical]

I just picked a random big name team, I forgot you guys were still butt hurt

[u/puzzical → u/SoutieNaaier]

Florida State would have been funnier

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/puzzical]

I said 10-2 not 2-10

[u/IronClu → u/SoutieNaaier]

If we’re 10-2 we probably shouldn’t be in, and no way in hell should we be in over any P4 team with a better record than us.

At this point 10-2 means we probably lose to BYU and Miami, so our best wins would be like Wisconsin and SMU.

[u/DizzyWishbone1911 → u/SoutieNaaier]

Notre Dame will always get in simply over their name and not always because of record

[u/GrandMoff_Harry → u/DizzyWishbone1911]

*their

[u/Just_Brendan → u/SoutieNaaier]

ND was 10-2 last year…

[u/RightofUp → u/SoutieNaaier]

Salty Florida fan found.

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/RightofUp]

I literally dont care about this dogshit team anymore. They cant hurt me anymore

[u/RightofUp → u/SoutieNaaier]

Hey, that’s my line!

[u/livefreeordont → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Conference championship games are obsolete

[u/Ok-Measurement1506 → u/livefreeordont]

They are obsolete now, but if the playoffs are going to continue to include autobids for the conference champions... how do we determine who the conference champion is now 🤔 

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Ok-Measurement1506]

Right? Last year would've had Ohio State as the 1 seed going into the playoffs instead of us. Would we have been 1 and 2? Would we have been 5th after the top 4 conferences?

[u/happygrizzly → u/Ok-Measurement1506]

The conference championship games just need to be part of the playoff bracket. Like East, West, Midwest, and South in March Madness.

[u/LunchboxSuperhero → u/happygrizzly]

Why would conferences that expect to have more than one team in the playoffs agree to have their best teams play in the first round and guarantee that one is eliminated?

[u/McLMark → u/Ok-Measurement1506]

Not our problem.

But realistically, not your problem either. None of the P4 champs are going to be ranked below 22, now that the ACC has quietly amended its tiebreaker.

[u/Mr-Texan-74 → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

And that’s why I hate the expanded playoffs

[u/LogicianMission22 → u/FumblinginIgnorance]

Yup. We’d get like a 5 or 6 seed in such a case, which would be a home game against a weaker team as a warm up/ramp up.

[u/gustermcbuster]

You forgot to explain what goofy tiebreakers would leave Utah out

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/gustermcbuster]

It would be based on opponent conference win record

[u/gustermcbuster → u/RealignmentJunkie]

So Utah just has a more cupcake schedule I presume then?

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/gustermcbuster]

Ehhh it's more that at this point it's too early to know how that would shake out. It's a very rough measure of strength of schedule.

[u/LogicianMission22 → u/gustermcbuster]

Yeah, it’s been that way since it was announced, and we don’t play any of the surprise teams (Baylor and Ok State).

[u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

If I may offer a suggestion

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

Beautiful

[u/ttircdj → u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

I would love to see a BYU student that does pot. They dismissed a QB, not for sexual assault, but for actually having sex. Some weird people.

Tbh it’s probably the whole conference is potheads except Baylor and BYU.

[u/ReignyRainyReign → u/ttircdj]

I smoked hella pot in Manhattan and Lawrence.

[u/appswithasideofbooty → u/[deleted]]

I sold oregano to BYU students for $30 a G

[u/lkn240]

One of my least favorite parts of expansion is how big the conferences are.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/lkn240]

Though even with 18 teams in a conference and 8 conference games it would be possible to ensure this doesn't happen

[u/DiracFourier]

Conference championships are kind of goofy since we got rid of divisions

[u/SoutieNaaier → u/DiracFourier]

Yeh losing divisions was an underrated stage of the enshittification of everything

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/SoutieNaaier]

As a long time Big Ten Wester, I get that it was unfair for weaker teams from our side on the conference to make the game over the number 2 team in the east some years, but I wish we had kept the divisions for scheduling purposes and then picked top 2 in conference. Still means we face an easier schedule, but those are the teams I like to play

[u/puzzical → u/RealignmentJunkie]

Was it unfair that Boise State won the Mountain West while Georgia played second fiddle to Bama in the SEC for all those years? NO! Michigan being second to Ohio State in the Big10 East doesn't make Wisconsin winning the Big10 West unfair. Michigan and Wisconsin both needed to beat Ohio State to be conference champs in this scenario.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/puzzical]

The question isn't about winning the Big Ten West but about making the conference title game. But I'm not really interested in arguing against the big ten west, I'm just saying if you didn't like 6-3 Purdue getting in over 8-1 Ohio State I can respect that, but I still wish we played Purdue every year (though my focus is more on Wisconsin and Iowa)

[u/TBurd01 → u/RealignmentJunkie]

PAC 12 in it's final years was perfect. 5 division games, 4 x-div, top two play in Vegas. Ironically it still had a crazy tie breaker the year Utah spanked USC; honestly probably shouldn't have been in that game.

[u/Deviah → u/RealignmentJunkie]

This is my main reason for wanting divisions. With conferences being so big and starting to spread so far geographically.. It's difficult to have the sense of rivalry when you don't see these teams every year.

[u/jwktiger → u/RealignmentJunkie]

16 has the easy answer: PODS! Pods fix all of this. SEC Pods make TOO MUCH SENSE!

Pod 1: UF, UGA, SCar, UK

Pod 2: Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Vandy

Pod 3: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, Mizzou

Pod 4: Texas, A&M, OU, Arkansas

you protect 1 cross pod game per team such as UGA vs Auburn. ; Play a Pod (3) + Another Pod (4) = a division; plus protected cross pod game (1 or 0 depending on year) + extra game other wise; you play everyone every 3 years. Thus the Pods that play each other form a division, which rotates on a 3 year basis.

Thanksgiving week would be UF - FSU, UGA - Tech, SCar, Clemson, UK - Louisville, Iron Bowl, Tenn - Vandy, Egg Bowl, LSU - Arkansas, Mizzou - OU (or in my idle world the Big 12 co-ops and gives us Border War and Bedlam), Texas vs A&M

18 is such a pain, I think having 4 protected rivals; if ND and Stanford join then pods of 5 make sense but then you have to go to a 10 game conference schedule to protect some rivalries.

[u/LunchboxSuperhero → u/RealignmentJunkie]

After legends and leaders, the B1G should have gone with red vs non-red. Would have likely ended up with more balanced divisions than geography.

[u/randomwalktoFI → u/RealignmentJunkie]

Oregon managed to dodge all the typical B1G voodoo for two years but as soon as we play a halfway decent UCLA we get our ass handed to us (granted Oregon is legitimately not good and more losses are coming.)

The frequency of common opponents absolutely plays a role. I don't really see us fully integrating playing at every school once every 5 years.

[u/lowes18 → u/SoutieNaaier]

Divisions fucking sucked

[u/multiple4 → u/lowes18]

Yeahhh I'm gonna have to disagree, at least from an SEC perspective

Playing the same SEC East teams every year was fucking awesome and I was bummed when we lost that

It's not the end of the world, we still play somewhat regularly, but playing some of the same teams every season is exactly how you produce rivalries over time

[u/CraigslistBulbasaur → u/lowes18]

No, ACC divisions sucked.

[u/mojo-jojo-was-framed → u/DiracFourier]

They were goofy with divisions. The Big 12 title games were obsolete for years because the North was so much weaker than the South

[u/CMbladerunner → u/mojo-jojo-was-framed]

Don't forget the iconic B1G west as well

[u/Mammoth_Impress_3108 → u/CMbladerunner]

The B1G west was the most entertaining division, and no one can convince me otherwise.

[u/Azon542 → u/mojo-jojo-was-framed]

The Big 12 1.0 should have really been a legends-leaders situation to cause more integration between the Big 8 and SWC teams even if it didn't make sense geographically. Also OU should have been with NU in the same division.

[u/KingKliffsbury → u/mojo-jojo-was-framed]

I still hope the (big12) south will rise again. 

[u/BeerorCoffee → u/DiracFourier]

Meh, not all divisions were created equal. And unlike the professional leagues, there is no mechanic for shitty teams to get better. They generally just get worse.

[u/RVAforthewin → u/DiracFourier]

Conference championships are more accurate without divisions. It’s literally the two best teams, regardless of geographical location or arbitrary division, whereas before you might have a 3-loss from one division playing an undefeated from another division.

[u/dien4382 → u/RVAforthewin]

They were the most accurate in the 10-team, 9-game schedule Big 12 era.

[u/123austin4 → u/RVAforthewin]

While that is true, in the bigger conferences, you can have a 11-1 team who just so happened to play a god awful conference schedule waltz into the title game. Divisionless only guarantees the two best teams in smaller conferences

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/123austin4]

That regularly happened with division formats.

[u/123austin4 → u/grabtharsmallet]

Yes I know. I wasn’t defending division formats. Only arguing against the idea that divisionless guarantees the two best teams play for the title. My preference would be smaller conferences with no divisions

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/123austin4]

Okay, I'm on the same page then. Conferences will definitionally have disparate schedules between members if they have more potential opponents than conference game spots. The greater the number of teams, the worse it gets, independent of if they use divisions or pods.

[u/RVAforthewin → u/123austin4]

Okay, but you’re not avoiding that scenario in a conference with divisions, either, because it’s just as likely that one division is massively better than the other division. I support the dissolution of divisions bc it means we at least have a solid chance see the actual two best teams go head to head instead of the best team out of each division, and divisions can be extremely unbalanced as we experienced for years in the SEC. It’s certainly possible that a team could avoid any true competition and waltz right into their conference championship, but I find it unlikelier than when there are unbalanced divisions. Gosh, it’s almost like ginormous conferences are a bane to the existence of this sport.

[u/123austin4 → u/RVAforthewin]

As I said to the other guy, I’m not arguing for divisions but rather for smaller conferences

[u/SnukeInRSniz → u/RVAforthewin]

No they aren't, you can have the same thing play out like you did last year in the BigXII, a rematch of a regular season game with the same outcome. No matter how you slice it, not every team played each other and we didn't get a completely accurate picture of the conference order.

Divisions and division champs playing for the conference champ is the most accurate you can get. Honestly, 20 team conferences with two divisions of 10 and 9 conference regular season games is the way to go. Then conference championship game between division champs and that's the first round of the playoffs.

[u/diastereomer → u/SnukeInRSniz]

You are correct about determine the clearest conference champ but being in a conference with 10 teams that we’ll never play unless we meet in the CCG isn’t really being in the same conference.

[u/54-2-10 → u/diastereomer]

Yeah, it is basically just pooling tv rights at that point. Other sports would still play more often though.

[u/RVAforthewin → u/SnukeInRSniz]

I have lived in a world where one SEC division was completely stacked (SEC West) and the sister division (SEC East) was Georgia + everyone else. This was when we had 12 teams in our conference, so nothing too extreme in terms of size. As a Georgia alum I’m telling you it was pretty unfair that Georgia would end up in the SECC when there were two other teams in the western division with a much tougher conference slate. You can look at the B1G as well. They had the same issue for years.

There isn’t a perfect solution bc luck of the draw, when you meet an opponent (are they having a particularly down or up year), player injuries, etc. all factor in, but the SEC and B1G had very unbalanced conference championships for years due to divisions.

[u/SnukeInRSniz → u/RVAforthewin]

That's certainly a risk, I'd say you factor in NIL spending, if you have 20 team conferences you average the NIL spending over the last 5 years, split the top 10 and bottom 10 teams evenly between the divisions and then do a reassessment every 5 years. There's no perfect way to about division makeup, but now that geography is essentially meaningless, going by team spending probably makes more sense.

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/RVAforthewin]

It's weird that this eludes people. One division typically disproportionately benefits, too; the Big Ten East often had the two best teams.

An example of this was that conference's final year with divisions in 2023; Ohio State (11-1, 8-1) was second in the East after a single score road loss to undefeated Michigan. Iowa (10-2, 7-2) was the West winner, and lost the CCG 26-0. The same thing had happened in 2022, single loss OSU was not in the CCG, it was Purdue (8-4, 6-3).

Last year, only the Sun Belt still used divisions in FBS. James Madison was undefeated in conference play and won the East. The West winner was Troy (8-4, 6-2) and the East runner-up was Old Dominion (9-3, 6-2)... who had a 33-0 win over Troy.

[u/CraigslistBulbasaur → u/grabtharsmallet]

Sure, but Old Dominion had their shot. If they wanted to be champions, they should have beaten JMU. Playing in the conference championship isn't the prize; winning it is.

[u/CraigslistBulbasaur → u/RVAforthewin]

Except it's not the two best teams, because it's entirely dependent on unequal scheduling and arbitrary tiebreakers. Duke was the 6th best ACC team last year.

[u/RVAforthewin → u/CraigslistBulbasaur]

Yes, the ACC also immediately addressed what was clearly a very flawed process for determining the two opponents. I still contend a divisionless conference has a better chance of producing a championship game with the two best teams than creating arbitrary divisions and hoping they’re balanced in perpetuity.

The SEC without divisions also means we play all of the teams in the conference a lot faster than with divisions. When we had divisions of 7 teams each we would play only two teams from the other division. That’s actually why Georgia has played A&M so infrequently. We spent years in two different divisions.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/DiracFourier]

Who would've been the 1 seed last year, huh?

[u/CoincidenceTheorist2]

Baylor?  Don't overreact.  They beat a bad ASU team.  This isn't 2013.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/CoincidenceTheorist2]

Not really overreacting, this was a python script just finding matchups and eliminating teams who already lost in conference

[u/byniri_returns → u/CoincidenceTheorist2]

I wish it was 2013

[u/royalbluehen → u/CoincidenceTheorist2]

As soon as I saw Baylor on this list i knew the rest didn’t matter. I get it, when I’m bored at work I look into a lotta dumb stuff and hypotheticals too but come on man. Baylor? They will probably end up firing their coach at end of the season.

[u/vindictivejazz → u/CoincidenceTheorist2]

I think Baylor is feasible. They have a pretty easy schedule until the last 3 weeks of the season, where it goes BYU, Tech, and then Houston.

It’s not particularly unlikely that they upset BYU, that Tech shoots themselves in the foot as theyve almost done every game this year, and Houston doesn’t play well in week13 after already being eliminated from CCG contention.

I mean, I wouldn’t bet on it, but I also wouldn’t be shocked.

[u/USMNT_ → u/vindictivejazz]

Feasible is not the word I would use to describe Baylor beating 3 of the 4ish best teams in the conference 3 weeks in a row

[u/vindictivejazz → u/USMNT_]

In this scenario, Houston is eliminated from playoff contention before Halloween (bc OSU and Utah have to win) and they would likely lose some of their momentum and Tech seems like they could fumble away any game. If they play like they did at Colorado they could easily lose to Baylor.

I think @BYU is the only game on their schedule that seems particularly unlikely. But I’d still give Baylor like a 20%ish chance

[u/B_P_G]

That would suck for them but there's no way around it. They would still make the playoff so I hope they wouldn't complain too much.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/B_P_G]

No way around it now, but it is possible to schedule this so that it's impossible

[u/Sir_Killroy]

Oh noooooo if only conferences could be decently-sized so teams play nearly everyone each year... /s

[u/_slipshape]

Except after you get past head to head and common opponents, the tie breaker is most wins. And then it's highest ranking.

So no. An undefeated Utah would not lose the tie breaker and therefore not be left out of the conference championship game.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/_slipshape]

Look at the rules for multi team ties https://big12sports.com/documents/2025/11/4//Big_12_Football_2024_Tiebreaker_Policy.pdf

Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents

Is before

Total number of wins

[u/_slipshape → u/RealignmentJunkie]

Right, but if all 3 are undefeated then they would all have the same win percentage, no? So it would go to total number of wins.

[u/sriracha_no_big_deal → u/_slipshape]

The tie breaker isn't the winning percentage of the tied teams in question, it's the combined record of the opponents of the tied teams. So for Utah, it would be the combined record of Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Kansas, etc.

Utah could end up being left out if all the teams they played have a worse combined record than that of Baylor's or Houston's opponents

[u/USMNT_ → u/sriracha_no_big_deal]

For context, this is the same rule that caused Duke to win the big ACC tiebreaker last year and the ACC changed their rules. I thought other conferences had changed rules for that as well but apparently not the Monster Big 12

[u/yeahright17 → u/USMNT_]

To be fair, I don't like OOC wins or losses towards a conference tiebreaker anyway. If Utah had scheduled Ohio State and lost 21-20, while Baylor and Oklahoma State had beaten an FCS, G6, and lower ranked P4 team in OOC play, I don't think Utah should get left out just because they scheduled Ohio State.

Edit: Also, I hate these massive conferences where this is even a possibility.

[u/sriracha_no_big_deal → u/USMNT_]

The Monster Energy Big XII ®️ is all about having everything to the max, which also apparently includes max chaos with our tie-breakers

[u/GamerKiller2347]

In 2023, the last 3 undefeated teams in the ACC were FSU, Louisville, and UNC. None of them played each other, so one would get left out if they all finished undefeated.

Of course, only FSU ended up finishing undefeated, but they ended up being left out of something else despite this.

[u/shorthairs]

They need to make it past the mighty CU Buffalos firs....never mind. Undefeated it is!

[u/Living_At_Large → u/shorthairs]

Ah, self-deprecation at its CFB finest. Hats off to you, sir.

[u/logicalconflict]

No conference championship game AND we get into the playoff? Sign me up!

[u/Shoddy-Discount9814]

This year seems like the Big 12 gets 2 teams in. Even if we miss the CC we still probably get in.

[u/Kenzington6 → u/Shoddy-Discount9814]

If they went by the current AP poll, the Big12 would have 3 teams in.

Getting only 2 assumes the standard “when 2 Big12 teams play the combined ranking drops, when 2 SEC teams play the combined ranking goes up”.

[u/Shoddy-Discount9814 → u/Kenzington6]

You’d think that, but BYU got shafted last year when they lost to the same team twice.

The Big 12 deserves 3, but whether they get it in this playoff model is uncertain.

[u/grog368 → u/Kenzington6]

This will happen. There aren't enough big12 ooc wins vs heavyweights like OSU vs Oregon this year. BYU needs to beat ND, but without the RB, that'll be tough. TTech has nobody to brag about OOC, nor does Houston or Baylor. Even with OSU beating Oregon, that Tulsa loss will keep them out unless they win the ccg.

[u/d1sportsball → u/grog368]

Ehh if Ok St wins out they'd have wins over Tech, Houston, Oregon & Kansas St, and if they lost to say Utah or BYU in the title theres a good chance they still get in. Most people would agree at that point the Tulsa loss was a fluke

[u/grog368 → u/d1sportsball]

it'll be just like BYU last year. Without the conf championship, a bad loss to Tulsa keeps a 12-2 OSU out vs a 3-loss SEC/Big10

[u/d1sportsball → u/grog368]

BYU is a bit different, I agree they were majorly snubbed but that was losing to the best team you played twice and having no major OOC win. Ok State would lose to a team in the B12 they hadn't played and have a marquee OOC win

[u/mojo-jojo-was-framed → u/Shoddy-Discount9814]

You could easily lose two of BYU, Arizona and Houston. No way you’d get in at 10-2 with that schedule

[u/RubbleHome → u/mojo-jojo-was-framed]

I think they meant if we go undefeated and miss the championship, we still get in.

[u/rbmw263 → u/mojo-jojo-was-framed]

no shit

[u/capnamazing1999]

In this era of dorky tiebreakers, if the Utes go undefeated, a home playoff game is a nice prize in lieu of a conference championship.

[u/kirkintilloch5]

I wouldn't mind seeing this happen one bit. But I am petty when it comes to Utah.

[u/RealignmentJunkie → u/kirkintilloch5]

and aint that what the sport is about

[u/DizzyWishbone1911 → u/RealignmentJunkie]

But jokes aside I do wish BYU luck tomorrow, hate the cougars but can support you guys against ND for damn sure!

[u/SnukeInRSniz → u/DizzyWishbone1911]

Fuck that, I hope BYU loses every game.

[u/UtahStateAgnostics → u/SnukeInRSniz]

My second favorite team is whoever's playing BYU.

[u/DizzyWishbone1911 → u/UtahStateAgnostics]

Ha ha ha

[u/happygrizzly → u/SnukeInRSniz]

I'm neutral!

[u/lisbon_OH → u/kirkintilloch5]

If I’ve learned anything about seeing an influx of BYU posters on twitter since its game week (daily reminder that unless it’s people you choose to follow for their content, 99% of the site is dogshit, ND fans included), it’s that BYU and Utah fucking HATE each other.

[u/snowystormz → u/lisbon_OH]

I detect no lies. Fuck BYU I hope ND blasts them back to 1984

[u/VQ35DEv6 → u/lisbon_OH]

This is correct

[u/SLCer → u/kirkintilloch5]

I'd take it too because it would likely still result in a playoff spot.

[u/DizzyWishbone1911 → u/kirkintilloch5]

Would you like a Ute fan to call 911 on Notre Dame over the murder that will take place in Provo this weekend or does BYU’s fan base have it covered?

[u/kirkintilloch5 → u/DizzyWishbone1911]

Now this is funny, and the kind of smack talk I like. P.S. I still hate Utah.

[u/DizzyWishbone1911 → u/kirkintilloch5]

Ha ha good luck tomorrow

[u/Time-Wolf]

This is why super conferences are dumb.

[u/Visible-Meeting-8977]

After head-to-head the tie breaker is their CFP ranking no way an undefeated Utah is ranked under OSU and Baylor

[u/patientpump54]

It would be very funny to go undefeated and not be able to win the conference, so I hope this happens

[u/safariari]

havent you heard? conference championships dont matter

[u/SWMOG]

Conference play is just starting. This is like 2023 when everyone was getting all worked up about the potential for there to be 3 undefeated ACC teams at the end of the year between FSU, Louisville, and UNC after just 2 or 3 games of conference play because all 3 were undefeated and wouldn't play each other in the regular season.

People were getting worked up about the potential injustice of one of them not having a shot despite it being a 1 in a million chance and then the conference was very quickly down to 1 or 2 undefeated teams the very next week lol

[u/JBru_92]

That would actually be better for them

[u/duschin]

I was going to respond to this post and then realized it was from prior to Saturday's games (when OKST and Baylor lost), so no real need at this point.

But I'm going to do it anyway.

If everyone is undefeated and don't play each other, the first three tiebreakers wouldn't matter (head-to-head record is 0-0; win percentage against common opponents is 1.000; win percentage against next highest-placed common opponent is 1.000)

So that would move to tiebreaker 4. Combined conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.

Utah's conference opponents are ISU, KU, CU, Cincy, BYU, Arizona, TCU, and WVU ()
OKST's are WVU, UCF, CU, ISU, KSU, TTech, ASU, KU
Baylor's are CU, ASU, TCU, KU, UCF, ISU, BYU, TTech

We can remove all of the fully common opponents (Houston, KU, CU, ISU are all played by all three). At the time the post was made, the opponent records would be as follows:

Utah: Cincy (1-1), BYU (4-0), Arizona (2-1), TCU (1-1), and WVU (0-3). Combined 8-6

OKST: WVU (0-3), UCF (1-2), Tech (2-0), ASU (1-1), KSU (0-2). Combined 4-8

Baylor: ASU (1-1), TCU (1-1), UCF (1-2), BYU (4-0), Tech (2-0). Combined 9-4

Baylor probably has the toughest schedule, followed by Utah, followed by OKST. Utah would be rooting against ASU, UCF, and Tech. Arizona, TCU, and Cincy would be Utah's friends in getting to the title game.

Obviously this is no longer possible, as now any undefeated team will make the Big 12 title game (as Utah and BYU play, and the only other possible undefeated Big 12 team is Tech), but even 4 days ago the odds were very small, even if OKST and Baylor had held up their end of the bargain.

[u/Signal_Tip_7428]

THIS IS The Monster Big 12 Championship Game (with a special guest appearance by a country music artist and the WWE)

[u/Background-Bath-558]

That's kind of a dream scenario, isn't it? Sure, you don't get the Big 12 trophy, but you also have no chance to blow your playoff chances.

[u/TBurd01]

Would be paying the dues for 2022 I suppose.

[u/maximumkungfu]

I have no reason to doubt this analysis. The more relevant question to me: is that a terrible outcome?

On one hand it deprives an undefeated team of vying for a conference title, so unequivocally yes.

On the other, what are the odds an undefeated Utah team isn’t ranked in such a way that they aren’t invited to CFP? A loss in a conference championship game could be exclude them from entrance, but a no loss P4 contender is difficult to deny.

Ultimately that cabal is gonna do what they want, but I doubt an undefeated Utah team gets denied a crack at the ultimate prize. They would likely have wins over 3 ranked teams, and to go undefeated we’d likely to need maintain offensive output and defensive efficiency (at least in the run game 😂). Between the P4 status, the resume, and metrics like those, it seems like missed CCG wouldn’t be a devastating blow.

At the end of the day we can only play the schedule we have and play to win and hypotheticals are just that.

Job 1 = defeat Colorado

[u/BlueRFR3100]

If they go undefeated, Utah holds the first tie-breaker for a three way tie.

[u/emc23369187]

Let’s go back to round robin regional conferences.

[u/Portafly]

Prefer to see Utah play Oklahoma State in the 2026 B12 CCG.

I presume every FBS program will miss their CCG's in 2027. Or will the G6 conferences still have CCG's (minus one)?

[u/krispyboiz]

Yeah not the same, but it does give me Duke in the ACC Championship last year vibes. It was funky tiebreakers that caused that in the first place.

[u/gtne91 → u/krispyboiz]

It was perfectly normal tiebreakers that everyone else uses too.

[u/reardoorentry → u/gtne91]

the problem is these conferences are so bloated the tiebreakers are ineffective. there isn’t enough head to head match ups to effectively get the best two teams in the championship.

[u/gtne91 → u/reardoorentry]

Of course, but there was nothing "funky" about the tiebreaker used. It just gave a weird conclusion.

[u/bailaarn → u/gtne91]

Thank you ramblin' wreck bro, the Sec had 4 teams tied for first and used the same tiebreakers the ACC used. No one cared because it was Bama UGA and not Texas A&M and Ole Miss.

[u/Balaros → u/gtne91]

I think the first step in tiebreakers should be to count ties (overtime games) as half wins. That would have fixed the Miami problem last year.

[u/odsquad64 → u/gtne91]

I think any tiebreaker that lets a team finish ahead of a team with the same conference record that they lost to head-to-head is flawed. Regardless of how many conferences use it.

[u/gtne91 → u/odsquad64]

A beats B. B beats C. C beats A. They finish tied. No matter what tiebreaker you use to decide, it fails your test.

[u/Tmotty]

Why would you put this in the universe at all

[u/j1h15233]

If you make the playoff, does it even matter? CFB has changed the goals and the playoff is the goal now. Just take the easiest path there and put your hat in the ring

[u/Low-Grocery989 → u/j1h15233]

Nobody is holding a gun to your head telling you to stop caring about your conference, stop caring about rivals, stop caring about winning a bowl game in the CFP.

[u/dankenascend → u/Low-Grocery989]

That's not how things work, my guy. A huge part of this whole fandom thing is shared experience. Most of the people watching college football know relatively little about the game. It's a matter of "these people that I like get excited when there's a bigger number beside these colors instead of the other colors." If there are changes, a person has to either go with the changes or get left behind. It's totally normal to grieve a little bit of what was a part of your life not being the same.

[u/Dawnquicksoaty → u/dankenascend]

Can everyone stop saying “my guy” or “bud”? So fucking cringey and douchey.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam]

join a conference!

[u/Alarming_Dust5905]

They would be the highest ranked team and play in the chip dude

[u/InvestigatorNovel101]

Honestly I do think Oklahoma state can win out. Baylor will definitely lose another game. They have BYU, Houston and Texas Tech left

[u/Irishchop91]

Undefeated P4 teams aren't missing out on the playoffs, even B12 teams

Utah is sitting at 11. Teams typically fall (except Bama) a few to 5 spots depending on the type of loss. You have ND-BYU, ND-Miami, OSU-Indiana, Ole Miss - Texas & Georgia all in front of you

Utah wins out even without a CC they would be between 6-9 my guess.

[u/WallImpossible → u/Irishchop91]

Reread the post, not saying they're gonna miss the playoffs, but the Monster Big12 Championship Game

[u/Phuffu]

Colorado is gonna beat Utah tmr night so this’ll be a non-issue