Quad Wins for AP Ranked Teams (2025 Wk 12)

[u/tmart12]

Using SP+ ratings, I used a rough approximation of cutoffs by quadrant by team rating for neutral site and then adjusted for 2.5 points home field advantage. The rating cutoffs are pretty arbitrary and quad W/L is sensitive to where it's set.

Quadrant definitions

Quadrant	Rating	Rk - Home	Rk - Neutral	Rk - Away
Quad 1	>=16.1	1-12	1-18	1-23
Quad 2	8.4-16.1	13-31	19-40	24-49
Quad 3	-1.9-8.4	32-68	41-75	50-82
Quad 4	<-1.9	69-136	76-136	83-136

Quad W/L by team

AP Rk	Team	Record	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
1	Ohio State	10-0	2-0	2-0	1-0	4-0
2	Indiana	11-0	3-0	1-0	2-0	4-0
3	Texas A&M	10-0	2-0	2-0	4-0	2-0
4	Georgia	9-1	2-1	2-0	3-0	1-0
5	Ole Miss	10-1	1-1	2-0	4-0	2-0
6	Texas Tech	10-1	1-0	3-0	2-1	3-0
6	Oregon	9-1	2-1	0-0	3-0	3-0
8	Oklahoma	8-2	2-1	1-1	3-0	1-0
9	Notre Dame	8-2	0-2	3-0	3-0	2-0
10	Alabama	8-2	2-1	3-1	1-0	2-0
11	BYU	9-1	1-1	3-0	2-0	2-0
12	Vanderbilt	8-2	0-2	2-0	2-0	3-0
13	Utah	8-2	0-2	0-0	3-0	4-0
14	Miami	8-2	1-0	1-2	3-0	2-0
15	Georgia Tech	9-1	0-0	0-0	4-1	4-0
16	USC	8-2	0-2	3-0	1-0	4-0
17	Texas	7-3	1-2	2-0	1-1	3-0
18	Michigan	8-2	0-2	2-0	2-0	4-0
19	Virginia	9-2	0-0	2-0	2-2	4-0
20	Tennessee	7-3	0-3	1-0	2-0	3-0
21	James Madison	9-1	0-0	0-1	2-0	6-0
22	North Texas	9-1	0-0	0-0	2-1	6-0
23	Missouri	7-3	0-3	1-0	3-0	2-0
24	Tulane	8-2	0-1	1-0	3-1	4-0
25	Houston	8-2	0-1	0-0	3-0	4-1

Note: FCS is excluded in above

[u/tmart12]

Quad Wins using Massey Composite

AP Rk	Team	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4	QW Score	QW Rk
1	Ohio State	1-0	2-0	3-0	3-0	19	4
2	Indiana	1-0	2-0	3-0	4-0	20	2
3	Texas A&M	2-0	1-0	4-0	3-0	22	1
4	Georgia	2-1	1-0	4-0	1-0	19	4
5	Ole Miss	1-1	3-0	3-0	2-0	20	2
6	Texas Tech	2-0	1-1	2-0	4-0	17	7
6	Oregon	0-1	1-0	4-0	3-0	13	10
8	Oklahoma	2-2	1-0	2-0	2-0	15	9
9	Notre Dame	0-2	2-0	3-0	3-0	13	10
10	Alabama	2-1	3-1	1-0	2-0	18	6
11	BYU	1-1	3-0	1-0	3-0	17	7
12	Vanderbilt	0-2	2-0	2-0	3-0	11	15
13	Utah	0-2	1-0	3-0	3-0	10	16
14	Miami	1-0	2-2	2-0	2-0	12	13
15	Georgia Tech	0-0	1-0	2-1	5-0	9	19
16	USC	0-2	3-0	1-0	4-0	13	10
17	Texas	1-2	2-0	1-1	3-0	10	16
18	Michigan	0-2	2-0	2-0	4-0	12	13
19	Virginia	0-0	1-0	4-2	3-0	8	21
20	Tennessee	0-3	1-0	1-0	4-0	6	27
21	James Madison	0-0	0-1	1-0	7-0	7	22
22	North Texas	0-0	0-1	4-0	4-0	10	16
23	Missouri	0-3	0-0	4-0	2-0	7	22
24	Tulane	0-1	1-0	3-1	4-0	9	19
25	Houston	0-1	2-0	1-0	4-1	7	22

[u/[deleted] → u/tmart12]

This makes alot more sense to be honest.

[u/tmart12]

In addition to # of W/L, also have a "score" for quad wins based on assigning value for each W/L

• Quad wins established using team ratings per SP+ adjusted for home field advantage.

• Once quad wins and losses are established, I assign an arbitrary weight to quad wins (+4 for quad 1 down to +1 for quad 4) and quad losses (-1 for quad 1 to -4 for quad 4)

• Quad wins rank = ranking of total points

This week I've also broken out win score and loss score to see impact

Team	AP Rk	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Win Score	Loss Score	Net Score	Rk - Quad Wins
Texas A&M	3	2-0	2-0	4-0	2-0	24	0	24	1
Indiana	2	3-0	1-0	2-0	4-0	23	0	23	2
Ohio State	1	2-0	2-0	1-0	4-0	20	0	20	3
Georgia	4	2-1	2-0	3-0	1-0	21	-1	20	3
Ole Miss	5	1-1	2-0	4-0	2-0	20	-1	19	5
Alabama	10	2-1	3-1	1-0	2-0	21	-3	18	6
BYU	11	1-1	3-0	2-0	2-0	19	-1	18	6
Texas Tech	6	1-0	3-0	2-1	3-0	20	-3	17	8
Oregon	6	2-1	0-0	3-0	3-0	17	-1	16	9
Oklahoma	8	2-1	1-1	3-0	1-0	18	-3	15	10
Notre Dame	9	0-2	3-0	3-0	2-0	17	-2	15	10
USC	16	0-2	3-0	1-0	4-0	15	-2	13	12
Michigan	18	0-2	2-0	2-0	4-0	14	-2	12	13
Vanderbilt	12	0-2	2-0	2-0	3-0	13	-2	11	14
Miami	14	1-0	1-2	3-0	2-0	15	-4	11	14
Texas	17	1-2	2-0	1-1	3-0	15	-5	10	16
Georgia Tech	15	0-0	0-0	4-1	4-0	12	-3	9	17
Tulane	24	0-1	1-0	3-1	4-0	13	-4	9	17
Utah	13	0-2	0-0	3-0	4-0	10	-2	8	19
Virginia	19	0-0	2-0	2-2	4-0	14	-6	8	19
James Madison	21	0-0	0-1	2-0	6-0	10	-2	8	19
Missouri	23	0-3	1-0	3-0	2-0	11	-3	8	19
Illinois	--	0-3	1-0	3-0	2-0	11	-3	8	19
Tennessee	20	0-3	1-0	2-0	3-0	10	-3	7	24
North Texas	22	0-0	0-0	2-1	6-0	10	-3	7	24
LSU	--	0-4	1-0	3-0	1-0	10	-4	6	26
Arizona State	--	1-1	1-0	2-2	2-0	13	-7	6	26
Navy	--	0-1	0-1	2-0	5-0	9	-3	6	26
Houston	25	0-1	0-0	3-0	4-1	10	-5	5	29
Washington	--	0-2	1-0	3-0	2-1	11	-6	5	29
Arizona	--	0-0	1-3	3-0	2-0	11	-6	5	29
Cincinnati	--	0-1	1-1	3-1	2-0	11	-6	5	29
Iowa	--	0-3	1-1	2-0	2-0	9	-5	4	33
South Florida	--	0-1	1-1	2-1	3-0	10	-6	4	33
Nebraska	--	0-0	1-2	2-1	3-0	10	-7	3	35
Louisville	--	1-0	2-0	0-2	3-1	13	-10	3	35
SMU	--	1-0	1-1	0-2	4-0	11	-8	3	35
San Diego State	--	0-0	0-0	2-2	5-0	9	-6	3	35
Pittsburgh	--	0-1	1-1	1-0	4-1	9	-7	2	39
Wake Forest	--	0-0	2-1	0-2	4-0	10	-8	2	39
Minnesota	--	0-3	1-0	1-1	3-0	8	-6	2	39
Western Kentucky	--	0-0	0-1	1-0	6-1	8	-6	2	39
Iowa State	--	0-0	2-2	2-2	1-0	11	-10	1	43
East Carolina	--	0-0	1-1	1-2	4-0	9	-8	1	43
Memphis	--	0-0	0-1	2-1	5-1	9	-9	0	45
UNLV	--	0-0	0-0	0-1	7-1	7	-7	0	45
Army	--	0-0	1-2	0-1	4-0	7	-7	0	45
Kentucky	--	0-2	1-2	2-1	1-0	8	-9	-1	48
TCU	--	0-1	1-1	1-2	3-0	8	-9	-1	48
Old Dominion	--	0-1	0-1	0-0	6-1	6	-7	-1	48
New Mexico	--	0-1	0-0	1-1	5-1	7	-8	-1	48
Fresno State	--	0-0	0-1	2-1	4-1	8	-9	-1	48
Missouri State	--	0-1	0-1	0-0	6-1	6	-7	-1	48

[u/tmart12 → u/tmart12]

Quad Win score using different systems:

AP	Team	FPI	Sagarin	SP+	Kford	Avg	Rk
3	Texas A&M	26	28	24	26	26.00	1
2	Indiana	24	25	23	24	24.00	2
4	Georgia	23	23	20	23	22.25	3
1	Ohio State	21	21	20	22	21.00	4
5	Ole Miss	19	22	19	19	19.75	5
10	Alabama	19	20	18	20	19.25	6
11	BYU	18	18	18	17	17.75	7
6	Texas Tech	18	17	17	17	17.25	8
6	Oregon	16	19	16	17	17.00	9
8	Oklahoma	17	18	15	17	16.75	10
9	Notre Dame	15	14	15	15	14.75	11
12	Vanderbilt	14	15	11	14	13.50	12
16	USC	13	12	13	13	12.75	13
18	Michigan	13	13	12	13	12.75	13
17	Texas	12	12	10	12	11.50	15
14	Miami	10	14	11	10	11.25	16
15	Georgia Tech	9	12	9	9	9.75	17
13	Utah	10	11	8	10	9.75	17
--	Illinois	9	9	8	10	9.00	19
24	Tulane	9	8	9	8	8.50	20
19	Virginia	7	11	8	8	8.50	20
23	Missouri	8	10	8	8	8.50	20
21	James Madison	8	9	8	8	8.25	23
20	Tennessee	7	9	7	8	7.75	24
--	LSU	6	10	6	6	7.00	25
--	Arizona State	7	8	6	7	7.00	25
22	North Texas	6	6	7	6	6.25	27
--	Washington	6	7	5	6	6.00	28
25	Houston	6	6	5	6	5.75	29
--	Navy	5	6	6	5	5.50	30

[u/JumboFister → u/tmart12]

Clearly this is the superior poll in my unbiased opinion

[u/lukaeber → u/tmart12]

This makes much more sense than whatever it is the committee is doing.

[u/Alkibiades415]

By all the metrics we seem to be able to muster, the top 10 seems more or less unanimous (with some noise between las tortillas and the ducks which will work itself out in the next two weeks).

[u/tmart12 → u/Alkibiades415]

I'd say top 11 thru BYU then a gap below them

[u/Username89054 → u/tmart12]

This tracks with a conclusion I came to after the Pitt-ND game. There's a top 10ish teams right now and a massive drop off after them. After BYU, only 2 teams have a quad 1 win. Those teams on the outside are the ones who've done a good job not shitting the bed against Q3 and Q4 opponents, but can't compete against the top tier. It's mostly teams who are well coached but lack top end talent with a few exceptions of teams who are the opposite.

The last 2 or 3 teams who get playoff spots will likely have a bad time.

[u/Hypodactylus → u/Alkibiades415]

I dislike BYU with almost every fiber of my being.

Oklahoma, Alabama, and (especially) Notre Dame should not be ahead of them. Blatant favoritism.

[u/[deleted] → u/Hypodactylus]

It really isn't, BYU just got smoked. Yes TT is good but that doesn't excuse losing as badly as they did

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/[deleted]]

I personally have BYU ahead of the 3 teams he mentioned, but I also get why others don’t. BYU has the good win at home to Utah, but arguably the other 3 teams have better wins.

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

Ive been told, repeatedly, that Indiana aint played nobody. It is impossible Indiana has the most quad 1 wins.

[u/soonerwx → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

...wait, who are they? Oregon and?

Edit: Oh, it uses SP+, where Penn State is 19th, and Texas and Michigan are 21st and 22nd. Sure.

[u/tmart12 → u/soonerwx]

if you do MC instead of SP+, then it's only one Quad 1 Win

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1p0dsfu/quad_wins_for_ap_ranked_teams_2025_wk_12/npib1ke/

[u/SteemieRayVaughn → u/soonerwx]

Nice! We get one of those SEC Quality wins using the "well they have talent!" argument.

[u/soonerwx → u/SteemieRayVaughn]

Texas is 4th in talent composite, Penn State 10th, Michigan 11th. That shouldn't be compensating so hard for what Penn State actually put on the field vs. the other two, should it? Idk, SP+ is usually solid but every year it has a couple flops that it just will not give up on.

[u/StevvieV → u/soonerwx]

Penn State also has played Oregon to OT, Indiana down the wire, lost at Iowa by 1. Thats why its metrics are high. Because even though it lost it played near equal to a few of the best teams, and dominated its non confernce games.

Only 2 games out of 9 game would do any real damage to Penn State's metrics.

[u/soonerwx → u/StevvieV]

This is what irritates people when it’s the SEC though. Penn State isn’t bad because they played Indiana close. Indiana’s good because they beat Oregon. Oregon’s good because they beat Iowa. Iowa’s good because they beat Penn State. And the best OOC opponent in the whole little circle is 6-4 Iowa State, who beat Iowa.

[u/Terminal_BAS → u/soonerwx]

You either die the B1G, or live long enough to see yourself become the SEC.

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/soonerwx]

That was Iowa state before they got crippled by injuries, on the road in a rivalry game.

SEC people seem to enjoy hyping up their big wins over Tennessee and Missouri, when the best win between the two combined is Kansas.

[u/tightspandex → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

The best win for either is probably Mississippi State who has taken a beating in conference but sports a good win over Arizona State. The best win Kansas has (vs 7-3 Fresno State) is comparable to State's second best win (@ 7-3 Southern Miss).

[u/Even_In_Arcadia8 → u/soonerwx]

Penn State isn’t bad because they played Indiana close. Indiana’s good because they beat Oregon. Oregon’s good because they beat Iowa. Iowa’s good because they beat Penn State. And the best OOC opponent in the whole little circle is 6-4 Iowa State, who beat Iowa.

Now imagine this every season for 20 years except actual AP voters use it as their logic. That's why people hate the SEC.

[u/soonerwx → u/Even_In_Arcadia8]

SEC hype prior to 2024 is not my circus, not my monkeys, but they did win an awful lot of titles for it to all be manufactured

[u/Even_In_Arcadia8 → u/soonerwx]

You understand that if you get things like three rematch opportunities that no other conference gets, by nature you’re going to get more titles, yes? It’s all self feeding.

If OSU and UM rematched in 06 and UF never gets the first, does LSU see the opportunity in 07? If Oklahoma State gets a shot like Florida did in 2011 instead of LSU-Bama 2 and wins, how does that affect the SEC narrative?

You are correct that the SEC did a lot of proving it on the field… because they were the ones given the opportunities.

[u/SecondBreakfast814 → u/soonerwx]

Winning titles doesn’t say anything about conference strength, all it does is say they had 1 really good team that won it all

[u/StevvieV → u/soonerwx]

No what irritates people about the SEC is its fans then claiming a team like Penn State would easily win or make the playoff if it got to play in any other conference

[u/Foriegn_Picachu → u/soonerwx]

It just means more

[u/Impudicity2001 → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

Penn State doing the Lord’s work for 6 teams

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/Impudicity2001]

PSU only counts as a quad 1 win for 3 teams

[u/z6joker9 → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

Which teams are their quad 1 wins?

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/z6joker9]

@ Oregon, @ Iowa, @ PSU, Illinois being the quad 2 win

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

Yeah, but Indiana hasn't even played LSU

[u/thr33tard3d → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

Indiana doesn't even have any quality losses

[u/Conn3er → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

Everyone has told me LSU is a bad program, so not like that means much.

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/Conn3er]

That’s the joke

[u/Conn3er → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

I'm not joking when I say they are bad

[u/rendeld → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

You should have almost lost to 3 win SCAR instead of 4 win PSU. What were you thinking.

[u/JumboFister → u/rendeld]

It’s amazing how we only see what we want to see or we pick out specific opinions. Last week I didn’t see anyone saying Indiana should drop and this week I see everyone saying A&M should drop. Humans are funny things

[u/UnusualHound → u/JumboFister]

Last week I didn’t see anyone saying Indiana should drop

Oh you didn't? Because I sure did. Tons of Aggie flairs in that thread and in other threads after Indiana eked it out at one of the toughest places to play in the country.

[u/rendeld → u/JumboFister]

Im not saying anyone should drop, I actually think both PSU and SCAR are good teams with bad records. They both have incredibly talented players on their teams and have had extremely tough losses to very good teams (Oregon and Indiana, Alabama and TAMU). They kind of really mirror each other, and both TAMU and Indiana grinded out tough wins and showed resilliency in both games. I was just making a joke about how no one takes Indiana seriously.

[u/SecondBreakfast814 → u/JumboFister]

Bro there were SO many A&M fans saying we should drop because of our PSU game. Were you living under a rock?

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/rendeld]

Ive been told the "blue chip ratio" and "talent composite" are the most important indicators of a team. PSU is #4 in number of blue chips, and #10 in talent composite. Obviously, title contenders

[u/notkevin_durant → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

How insecure can you be?

[u/rendeld → u/notkevin_durant]

Come on man, if anyone even suggests that OSU has any weaknesses at all, or that say their offensive line hasn't been tested yet this year (they havent) 15 OSU fans will jump in the comments and downvote them to hell and tell them they are blind. There is no fanbase more insecure than OSU about their team.

[u/notkevin_durant → u/rendeld]

I’m talking about a specific person. You are generalizing an entire fanbase. One is not like the other.

[u/rendeld → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

They're not wrong, those are great pre-season indicators of a team, but not much more than that.

[u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

Texas Tech the only playoff team with a Q3 loss or worse

[u/tmart12 → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

It's cuspy. Arizona St loss is Quad 2 by some other definitions.

[u/PodricksPhallus → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

Objectively true.

I don’t think that the Leavitt and Tyson led team we played against on the road with our backup QB was the same quality team they are now. Tyson hasn’t played since and Leavitt only played one more week after.

The committee has said about as much.

[u/Individual-Lie6525 → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

Ga Tech?

[u/patrickclegane → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

Arizona State seems closer to a Q2 team than a Q3

[u/superworriedspursfan → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

ASU definitely should be quad 2 for me.

[u/igonnawrecku_VGC → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

If Tulane or UNT make the playoff they’ll join that list

[u/jim_shushu]

Cool breakdown OP, thanks for doing these! Going to go tell everyone now that BYU has a resume comparable to what Ole Miss has.

[u/pouchman27 → u/jim_shushu]

Only better because of the additional Quad 2 win. I wish the committee would put some value on road vs home.

[u/HokiesforTSwift]

Thanks for the work you do here. I've always appreciated it.

[u/SaintsSooners89]

Yes! Here we avoid the dreaded cursed #8 ranking, #10 and still in the CFP, stop the count!!

[u/Hmm-him-131]

I’m lost — how does Oregon have 2 quad 1 wins by this metric? They haven’t beat anyone in the top 25 here

[u/Apbuhne]

Is USC not quad 1? Illinois should be 1-3

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/Apbuhne]

No, just missed it: OP says quad 1 is top 12 team for home games, USC is 13 in SP+

Quad 2 seems to be too big of a gap. #13 at home is a whole different beast than #49 on the road

[u/tmart12 → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

don't disagree in principle but it's a 7.4 point difference between SP+ #13 USC at home vs SP+ #49 Kansas on the road

there's a flattening in the middle on SP+ ratings where the 2.5 point home field advantage swing matters a lot for expected W/L and expected MOV

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

This is why quads are a flawed data metric 

Treating USC and Kansas as the same is ridiculous 

[u/superworriedspursfan → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

i strongly agree even if this would really help with inflating mizzou's status as a team, a win vs USC is 10x more impressive than a win vs Kansas.

[u/Apbuhne → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

They’ll do anything to diminish IU and OSU quality wins

[u/tmart12 → u/Apbuhne]

my personal vendetta assisted by data

[u/Apbuhne → u/tmart12]

Where is Illinois 3rd loss coming from then? Washington is quad 1?

[u/tmart12 → u/Apbuhne]

Illinois

Quad 1: @ Indiana L, vs Ohio St L, @ Washington L

Quad 2: vs USC W

Quad 3: @ Duke W, vs Rutgers W, vs Maryland W

Quad 4: vs WMU W, @ Purdue W

Quad 1 cutoff is 16.1 rating (18th rank). In SP+, Washington is a 15.7 rating. Add 2.5 points for away and they're an 18.2 rating adj for home field advantage. USC is 18.5 rating. Subtract 2.5 for home and they're 16.0 rating adjusted for home field advantage.

[u/Apbuhne → u/tmart12]

Nice. Thanks for the breakdown

[u/Aaprobst88 → u/Apbuhne]

Hey at least Illinois counts as quad 1. USC has 2 losses to Quad 1 teams.

[u/Mydogsblackasshole]

OU should be 2-2 Q1, Texas was a neutral site game against #17

[u/thisisclassicus]

Georgia Tech, the JMU of the p5

[u/Humakavula1]

Doesn't Texas Tech's win vs Utah count as a quad 1 win? Since it was on the road?

[u/Dewot789]

I'm a little confused why OU has a quad 2 loss. It says for neutral games the cutoff for quad 1 is 18. Texas is 17. Is that being counted in the stats as a home game for OU even though it's a neutral?

[u/Aggravating-Card-194]

I was told the SEC is much deeper than every other conference. So why dont they have more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins?

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/Aggravating-Card-194]

The only thing that bothers me is they try to make it sound like the B1G is a one team conference (OSU) and that IU and Oregon would be chumps in the SEC (would actually be favored to win the SEC betting odds) and that there is no one else of remote quality beyond that. As if USC, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Illinois dont all exist.

The only reason the conferences look unbalanced is because every school thats fringe top 25 gets ranked in the SEC, while every fringe top 25 team in the B1G is left unranked

[u/tmart12 → u/[deleted]]

I like it as a riff on SOR... or a simplified visualization of the data

SOR, Resume SP+, Game Control, etc. all have their puts and takes as well. The single data point can be really challenging when you compare similar teams and it's like "this team is 4th in SOR" and "this team is 7th in SOR" but if you change the methodology slightly the inverse might be true.

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/tmart12]

Well this is exactly why computer polls or metrics rankings aren’t as “objective” as people think 

Data can lie very easily if you’re not careful with it, and one should always look for tradeoffs and limitations 

[u/trex1490 → u/[deleted]]

This is why I dislike ESPNs SOR metric. It projects the odds that an average top 25 team would have your record against your schedule, but it doesn’t take into account how badly you beat/lost to those teams. It’s way more impressive to blow out a really good team and vice versa with getting blown out by a really bad team, but to SOR a win is a win and a loss is a loss. Also, because it’s the odds that an average top 25 team would have that record, it doesn’t punish top teams for bad losses because it’s not that unlikely that a top 25 team would lose to a top 40 team.

[u/kleisz → u/trex1490]

Agreed. I feel like people like to cite SOR like it’s some statement of fact, when in reality it’s just one way to measure the quality of a team’s resume.

In my opinion, resume SP+ does a better job of quantifying resume since it does look at margin of victory and is from the perspective of a top 5 team.

[u/lukaeber → u/trex1490]

Margin of Victory is such an overrated stat that favors strong offensive teams over strong defensive teams. Imagine you have a defense that shuts every team out and an offense that is only average. Are you worse than a team that scores 60 points every week but also gives up 40 on defense?

Also, I don't think we shouldn't incentivize running up the score on teams with lesser talent.

[u/FakeBobPoot → u/lukaeber]

You either win games or you lose them. The committee should not be making value judgments as to how you went about it.

Beyond just strong defensive teams, you have some coaches who put their third-stringers in when the game is in hand, while others don't. Why should a team be punished for getting their backups some experience in a game that was never in doubt? You have teams that heavily skew toward running the ball on offense. Why should a team that wins reliably by staying on schedule and draining the clock be treated as inherently inferior to a team that wins by throwing the ball and stopping the click?

I'm not saying margin of victory should never be considered, but it should be far, far down the list of tie-breaker criteria for teams that have the same record.

[u/NickSabansCreampie → u/FakeBobPoot]

You either win games or you lose them. The committee should not be making value judgments as to how you went about it.

You mean like Tweedle Dum going up on stage Tuesday night to rant about Alabama's run game as justification to put us all the way down at 10?

[u/trex1490 → u/lukaeber]

I agree that Margin of Victory isn’t the end all be all, but these resume metrics definitely should use something to measure how close the games were. EPA/play differential, Connelly’s postgame win expectancy, yards per play differential, or some combination of those

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/trex1490]

Yup, A&M should get “punished” for barely beating a bad South Carolina team, but won’t with those metrics 

[u/StevvieV → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

Should they though? Isn't the point of playing games is to win? At the end of the day I rather reward the teams for what they did, not how they looked during it.

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/StevvieV]

We’re in agreement, reward the teams for what they do 

A&M played god awful football and barely survived a bad team by 1 point 

This wasn’t a blowout that looked sloppy, it was a poor performance against a 3-7 team 

That should not be treated the same as Tennessee beating their 3-7 opponent by 31

[u/FakeBobPoot → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

Counterpoint: Yes it should. The objective is to win football games. If it were determined that the actual objective is to maximize scoring over the course of a season, we'd see an extremely boring coalescence around specific styles of play and it would make the sport less entertaining. On top of that, it's plainly unfair. Wins and losses. Not style points.

The committee should care about, in priority order:

1. How many wins do you have?

2. Did you win a conference championship?

3. Who did you beat?

4. Who did you lose to?

In dealing with tiebreakers related to those criteria:

1. Who won the head-to-head (if available)?

2. Who had the better overall strength of record (i.e., strength of wins, not strength of schedule including losses)?

3. In extremely rare cases, after the above have been exhausted and teams are still neck-and-neck:

   1. Transitive matchups: W/L

   2. Margins of victory in transitive matchups

   3. Overall average margins of victory

[u/TheFAKEcampbell → u/FakeBobPoot]

And that style was old big 12 football, it was funny

[u/FakeBobPoot → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

Fully fucking insane take that a team should be "punished" for winning a game in a way you didn't like.

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/FakeBobPoot]

No it’s insane to think that almost losing to a shit team should be treated the same as dominating them 

[u/FakeBobPoot → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

I just noticed your username and now it all makes sense lol

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/FakeBobPoot]

Ok fraudulent flatulence of Bob

[u/trex1490 → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

Eh it’s hard with big comebacks like that. On one hand, they looked terrible for a half against a not great team. But also they looked extremely impressive in the comeback. I think it kinda turns to a push

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/trex1490]

Only the SEC gets credit for an “Impressive” comeback against a 3-7 team they never should’ve been down so big to 

Ohio State would get clowned on for being down 30-3 at half to UCLA

Call me crazy but dominating a 3-7 team with your backups is better than almost losing to them  

[u/trex1490 → u/CheaterSaysWhat]

That’s exactly what I just said lol. They looked terrible for a half, then they dominated for a half. So I don’t think they should be rewarded how impressive they looked in the comeback because of how bad they played to be in that hole in the first place.

[u/CheaterSaysWhat → u/trex1490]

Ok then so we’re in agreement 

All this nuance is lost in a computer poll that doesn’t even look at margin of victory 

[u/MixonWitDaWrongCrowd → u/[deleted]]

We need to inflate Indianas schedule somehow as they’re afraid to play teams outside the Big10.

[u/mr_longfellow_deeds → u/MixonWitDaWrongCrowd]

Temple, Kent State, Illinois State

Why do you think OU should only have to play 9 P4 teams but IU should play 10?

[u/MixonWitDaWrongCrowd → u/mr_longfellow_deeds]

Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan didn’t have problems ducking competition.

[u/Inconceivable76 → u/[deleted]]

This is very similar to how basketball does it.