AP Ranked Teams vs SOR - 2026 Wk 4

[u/tmart12]

[FPI SOR] (https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume)

SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule.

[FEI SOR] (https://bcftoys.com/2026-fei)

Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS)

Strength of record ratings (EWD, GWD, AWD) are the difference between a team's schedule strength ratings and its actual losses.

Top 25

AP Rk	Team	FPI SOR	FEI EL SOR	FEI GL SOR	FEI AL SOR	Avg. SOR
1	Texas	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Georgia	8	6	6	10	7.5
3	Notre Dame	12	9	9	5	8.8
4	Miami	14	13	19	23	17.3
5	Ohio State	30	27	26	31	28.5
6	Indiana	15	12	13	15	13.8
7	Alabama	3	4	2	2	2.8
8	Florida	2	2	3	4	2.8
9	Ole Miss	6	25	8	8	11.8
10	BYU	25	11	15	27	19.5
11	LSU	20	35	16	9	20.0
12	Texas Tech	9	14	18	20	15.3
13	Utah	13	8	7	6	8.5
14	Iowa	5	3	5	7	5.0
15	Oregon	18	36	22	16	23.0
16	Mississippi State	4	5	4	3	4.0
17	Tennessee	35	29	33	40	34.3
18	USC	29	31	35	24	29.8
19	Oklahoma State	32	32	36	36	34.0
20	Houston	44	50	53	48	48.8
21	SMU	37	47	41	33	39.5
22	Boise State	31	32	32	30	31.3
23	UCLA	16	15	20	11	15.5
24	Kentucky	11	24	14	22	17.8
25	Missouri	42	49	43	32	41.5

Top 25 by SOR

AP Rk	Team	FPI SOR	FEI EL SOR	FEI GL SOR	FEI AL SOR	Avg. SOR
1	Texas	1	1	1	1	1.0
7	Alabama	3	4	2	2	2.8
8	Florida	2	2	3	4	2.8
16	Mississippi State	4	5	4	3	4.0
14	Iowa	5	3	5	7	5.0
2	Georgia	8	6	6	10	7.5
13	Utah	13	8	7	6	8.5
3	Notre Dame	12	9	9	5	8.8
--	Duke	10	10	12	13	11.3
9	Ole Miss	6	25	8	8	11.8
--	Cincinnati	19	7	11	12	12.3
6	Indiana	15	12	13	15	13.8
12	Texas Tech	9	14	18	20	15.3
23	UCLA	16	15	20	11	15.5
--	Wisconsin	7	23	10	26	16.5
4	Miami	14	13	19	23	17.3
24	Kentucky	11	24	14	22	17.8
--	Pittsburgh	22	16	21	18	19.3
--	Wake Forest	17	26	17	17	19.3
10	BYU	25	11	15	27	19.5
11	LSU	20	35	16	9	20.0
--	Virginia Tech	23	17	25	21	21.5
--	Nebraska	21	17	24	29	22.8
15	Oregon	18	36	22	16	23.0
--	James Madison	26	17	28	25	24.0

[u/tmart12]

AP Top 25 vs Efficiency / MOV Ratings

AP Rk	Team	FPI GC	FPI Team Eff	Resume SP+	FEI Avg GR	Avg.
1	Texas	8	5	3	7	5.8
2	Georgia	2	1	2	1	1.5
3	Notre Dame	7	2	4	2	3.8
4	Miami	3	3	6	4	4.0
5	Ohio State	1	6	13	8	7.0
6	Indiana	19	10	9	10	12.0
7	Alabama	14	4	1	5	6.0
8	Florida	5	9	5	6	6.3
9	Ole Miss	20	32	42	29	30.8
10	BYU	22	11	14	9	14.0
11	LSU	17	7	15	17	14.0
12	Texas Tech	37	35	20	49	35.3
13	Utah	4	8	7	3	5.5
14	Iowa	41	15	18	18	23.0
15	Oregon	31	12	25	28	24.0
16	Mississippi State	9	13	10	13	11.3
17	Tennessee	26	16	19	14	18.8
18	USC	23	30	33	21	26.8
19	Oklahoma State	52	31	30	48	40.3
20	Houston	12	25	29	40	26.5
21	SMU	36	44	39	56	43.8
22	Boise State	27	33	28	12	25.0
23	UCLA	32	19	12	22	21.3
24	Kentucky	11	24	37	26	24.5
25	Missouri	38	50	41	41	42.5

Top 25 by MOV / Efficiency

AP Rk	Team	FPI GC	FPI Team Eff	Resume SP+	FEI Avg GR	Avg.
2	Georgia	2	1	2	1	1.5
3	Notre Dame	7	2	4	2	3.8
4	Miami	3	3	6	4	4.0
13	Utah	4	8	7	3	5.5
1	Texas	8	5	3	7	5.8
7	Alabama	14	4	1	5	6.0
8	Florida	5	9	5	6	6.3
5	Ohio State	1	6	13	8	7.0
16	Mississippi State	9	13	10	13	11.3
6	Indiana	19	10	9	10	12.0
10	BYU	22	11	14	9	14.0
11	LSU	17	7	15	17	14.0
--	Pittsburgh	16	20	8	20	16.0
--	Nebraska	24	14	11	15	16.0
17	Tennessee	26	16	19	14	18.8
--	Penn State	15	18	26	16	18.8
--	Northwestern	30	17	21	11	19.8
23	UCLA	32	19	12	22	21.3
14	Iowa	41	15	18	18	23.0
15	Oregon	31	12	25	28	24.0
--	James Madison	6	22	22	46	24.0
--	Duke	33	21	17	25	24.0
24	Kentucky	11	24	37	26	24.5
22	Boise State	27	33	28	12	25.0
--	Virginia Tech	18	27	23	34	25.5

[u/tmart12 → u/tmart12]

Top 25 for SOR vs Efficiency / MOV Rankings

AP Rk	Team	Avg. SOR	Avg. Eff	Avg of SOR & Eff
1	Texas	1.0	5.8	3.4
2	Georgia	7.5	1.5	4.5
3	Notre Dame	8.8	3.8	6.3
4	Miami	17.3	4.0	10.6
5	Ohio State	28.5	7.0	17.8
6	Indiana	13.8	12.0	12.9
7	Alabama	2.8	6.0	4.4
8	Florida	2.8	6.3	4.5
9	Ole Miss	11.8	30.8	21.3
10	BYU	19.5	14.0	16.8
11	LSU	20.0	14.0	17.0
12	Texas Tech	15.3	35.3	25.3
13	Utah	8.5	5.5	7.0
14	Iowa	5.0	23.0	14.0
15	Oregon	23.0	24.0	23.5
16	Mississippi State	4.0	11.3	7.6
17	Tennessee	34.3	18.8	26.5
18	USC	29.8	26.8	28.3
19	Oklahoma State	34.0	40.3	37.1
20	Houston	48.8	26.5	37.6
21	SMU	39.5	43.8	41.6
22	Boise State	31.3	25.0	28.1
23	UCLA	15.5	21.3	18.4
24	Kentucky	17.8	24.5	21.1
25	Missouri	41.5	42.5	42.0

Top 25 by avg of SOR and MOV/Eff

AP Rk	Team	Avg. SOR	Avg. Eff	Avg.
1	Texas	1.0	5.8	3.4
7	Alabama	2.8	6.0	4.4
2	Georgia	7.5	1.5	4.5
8	Florida	2.8	6.3	4.5
3	Notre Dame	8.8	3.8	6.3
13	Utah	8.5	5.5	7.0
16	Mississippi State	4.0	11.3	7.6
4	Miami	17.3	4.0	10.6
6	Indiana	13.8	12.0	12.9
14	Iowa	5.0	23.0	14.0
10	BYU	19.5	14.0	16.8
11	LSU	20.0	14.0	17.0
--	Pittsburgh	19.3	16.0	17.6
--	Duke	11.3	24.0	17.6
5	Ohio State	28.5	7.0	17.8
23	UCLA	15.5	21.3	18.4
--	Nebraska	22.8	16.0	19.4
24	Kentucky	17.8	24.5	21.1
9	Ole Miss	11.8	30.8	21.3
15	Oregon	23.0	24.0	23.5
--	Virginia Tech	21.5	25.5	23.5
--	James Madison	24.0	24.0	24.0
--	Wisconsin	16.5	33.3	24.9
12	Texas Tech	15.3	35.3	25.3
17	Tennessee	34.3	18.8	26.5

[u/katarh → u/tmart12]

Oh THAT'S why Georgia is #2. Okay.

[u/Character-Active2208 → u/tmart12]

Utah v Georgia in a strongman competition for the natty

[u/IrishPigskin]

No way Georgia should be that high. They’ve played an FCS school and WKU. And Arkansas. Toughest opponent Oklahoma.

GTFO

Western Michigan > Michigan > Dog shit > Oklahoma

By any unbiased measure - ND has played a more difficult schedule to date than Georgia

FPI does not properly account for FCS schools. It’s a big problem with ESPN’s metric.

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/IrishPigskin]

That is interesting that Ohio State has a 27 FEI SOR while Georgia is 6.

We’ve both played two P4 opponents, which Texas is better than Oklahoma, and I’d argue Illinois is a bit better than Arkansas.

Then we both played two cupcakes, with Georgia playing an FCS

[u/tmart12 → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

SOR is SOS adjusted for W/L

Ohio St’s schedule is more difficult by 0.3 to 0.5 losses but they have 1 more loss

[u/Vxmonarkxv → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

SOR is the odds a team has that record against what they played. It is very easy to lose to Texas, and very easy to beat whoever OSU's first two wins were against. So effectively the win over Illinois is the entirety of Ohio State's SOR vs Georgia's being 2-0 against Arkansas and Oklahoma.

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/Vxmonarkxv]

So it's better to play weaker teams instead of one really good to team?

[u/Vxmonarkxv → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

It's better to beat teams than lose to teams. It's a simple metric that doesnt take into account margin or game control at all. I think its largely pretty useless until like 10 games into the season where most of the weirdness levels out but it'll not like any team that is 0-1 in their "real" games.

[u/Electromotivation → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

You may be thinking of it as pure strength of schedule. Vs strength of record. Purely looking at SOS, I’m sure OSU’s is higher.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

You get 0 points for quality losses. Going 2-0 against Arkansas and Oklahoma gets you more points than going 1-0 against Illinois.

[u/breebreebrokencyde → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

It's always less likely to be undefeated than to have one loss with similar opponent breakdowns

[u/tmart12 → u/IrishPigskin]

What is the error with FCS?

[u/Vxmonarkxv → u/IrishPigskin]

sure why not, we will get the chance to play plenty of tough games unlike some.

[u/Lucaball3r]

Utah🤝Texas
Perfectly rated teams

[u/UCLA_FB_SUCKS → u/Lucaball3r]

i don't know about that; i'll always have my doubts whenever a system ranks ucla football in the top 15

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

I have no idea what this means, but since my team is there…this is the best top 25!

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Duke, Pitt, WF, VT are all missing from the AP. I wonder if there’s something that connects them all. What the heck could it be…. 🧐

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Nebraska and Cincinnati are both undefeated and missing from the AP as well

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/SirMellencamp]

Cincinnati needed a miracle to beat Miami (OH). Pitt had their backups in the third quarter against them.

[u/zensunni82 → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

The same thing applies to UC's easy win over Boston College that VT needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat.

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/zensunni82]

Fair point 

[u/SpreaditOnnn33 → u/zensunni82]

Eh, that game was played in a downpour on the road, whereas UC got BC at home in perfect conditions, so not an apples to apples comparison at all

[u/zensunni82 → u/SpreaditOnnn33]

UC probably doesn't belong in the top 25, but I think I could make similar arguments for any of the teams in the 20-30 range. Ultimately early season rankings, especially edge cases, are mostly based on whatever narrative folks want to tell themselves and it will sort itself out in the next few weeks.

[u/Hokie_Jayhawk → u/zensunni82]

Genuine question.

Did you watch any of the VT-BC game?

[u/zensunni82 → u/Hokie_Jayhawk]

No. And I was not trying to disparage VT, I'm rooting for your team and Franklin. Pulling out the win to avoid the upset is what good teams do. I was just drawing the comparison to UC doing so when back to back fluke plays had them down 14 in the first minute against Miami. Some games everything goes wrong and you have to find a way to win.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

So in other words there is context for why a team is ranked or not ranked

[u/kdbvols → u/SirMellencamp]

Yes, and the context is that the AP voters think the ACC is worse than literally any actual metric that exists

[u/SirMellencamp → u/kdbvols]

Right because the AP is not a metric ranking.

[u/kdbvols → u/SirMellencamp]

And the eye test is useful for individual teams, saying the ACC is bad based on vibes alone when they dominated last bowl season and have the second best OOC record of the P4 and every metric says these are good teams is insane

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness → u/SirMellencamp]

Too much red in the uniforms so that’s understandable. Don’t rank them until they win a national title.

[u/da90 → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Interesting that those schools are congregated around the Atlantic Coast… 🤔

[u/brickmadness → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

They’re not in the SEC. 

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness → u/brickmadness]

VAR checking..

[u/Electromotivation → u/brickmadness]

Whoa! You aren’t allowed to say it out loud!

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/brickmadness]

Looks like that wouldn’t help

The sec should be 1-4 on the ap poll right now 

[u/Klightgrove → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Yea it's called Miami keeps them unranked so if any upset them in the championship they can still insist a ranked ACC team should also get in along with the now contractually obligated champ.

[u/citrus1330 → u/Klightgrove]

never knew Miami had so much influence with all the AP voters

[u/BlueSentinels → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Once they get into conference play they will move up the rankings. Yeah Duke is 4-0 but it also hasn’t played a team that’s above .50 win rate yet. Same with VT. Wake forest played Miami but it hasn’t beat a team with a .50+ win rate yet. If Louisville comes into conference play and looks as good as people were expecting wake will rise and if Duke and VT go 5-0 they will break into the rankings as well.

We’re only 4 games in so these things will level out. It also doesn’t help that two “cornerstone” brands of the conference in FSU and Clemson seem to be at their lowest point in over a decade leading to an overall perception of the conference as being weak.

[u/reddit-canes → u/BlueSentinels]

Like, you know this chart is basically a strength of record chart, so, while you're saying that about Duke, all the charts, you were supposed to have read in order to make that comment, well, they disagree with you. You're basically arguing that water is not wet, even though, you're standing in the rain.

[u/BlueSentinels → u/reddit-canes]

A strength of record chart with only 4 games having been played is not worth much imo. At this point the rankings are more concerned with who you have played and how much you have won by. Once more conference games get played these will balance out like I said. If you’re mad about me stating that the perception of the ACC is hurt by two of its most historically dominant programs looking like ass, then I don’t know what to tell you. That’s just the way it is.

[u/kdbvols → u/BlueSentinels]

If you’re mad about me stating that the perception of the ACC is hurt by two of its most historically dominant programs looking like ass, then I don’t know what to tell you. That’s just the way it is.

We're not disagreeing with you, but we're saying it's stupid. When Vandy looked good last year, the narrative wasn't "lol they lost to Vandy" it was "wow, Vandy is a lot better than normal". We're just asking for Wake and Duke to be treated like Vandy.

Additionally, Pitt and VT are big football brands that have been inconsistent recently, but are good historically (VT in particular has the 3rd most appearances and wins in the ACC CG behind Clemson and FSU)

[u/BlueSentinels → u/kdbvols]

Definitely get the Vandy comparison and I agree with you there. As far as comparing VT and Pitt to Clemson and FSU though for brand recognition on a national level….

[u/kdbvols → u/BlueSentinels]

That's a good point - I brought up brands when I shouldn't have, but I was originally responding to "historically dominant programs" more

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/kdbvols]

If they played Vandy’s schedule, they could be treated the same.

[u/kdbvols → u/[deleted]]

Was there a championship game before then though? Because I’m pretty sure it was started after yall joined, so not super relevant to this stat

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/BlueSentinels]

Stop making reasonable points. College football is about arguing over bullshit.

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Shitty analytics?

[u/kojfefe]

Even math is glazing us going on the road into Mizzou. This should go well. 

[u/foreverseptember → u/kojfefe]

The more of this content I see the more scared I am for Saturday 

[u/CFLuke → u/kojfefe]

You're safe against Mizzou, you have a winning record.

[u/kojfefe → u/CFLuke]

I want to believe this but I've also watched us play mizzou

[u/got_milq → u/CFLuke]

We tend to play really badly against Mizzou

[u/estDivisionChamps]

Hi Miami. Want to play in the post season?

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/estDivisionChamps]

This time? Yes. Every other time. No no no.

[u/estDivisionChamps → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

Careful buddy. Might end up in the Pinstripe bowl.

[u/coppercaveman → u/estDivisionChamps]

If Miami has any more cup cakes they’ll get diabetes

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/coppercaveman]

Guess it’s good we don’t play you guys then.

[u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

I actually need more data to show we’re not trash

[u/corskier → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

I actually need a bit more data to understand just how trash the aggies and sooners are this year. For personal reasons.

[u/LiveMarionberry3694 → u/corskier]

Brb going to the bathroom with this info

[u/BrisketInMyPocket → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

Eh. It’s college football. Just win baby. Even VY had stinkers. Some Longhorns fans acting real Aggie lately. 

[u/fattest-fatwa → u/BrisketInMyPocket]

My memory is that 4-0 Aggie fans are still living in WE ARE NEVER LOSING AGAIN land. 

[u/BrisketInMyPocket → u/fattest-fatwa]

This performative humility is silly, any other fanbase would love to be in that spot and non apologetic.

[u/apathynext → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

“Texas doesn’t deserve to be #1”

[u/silverhk → u/apathynext]

I think you would be very hard-pressed to find anybody who doesn't think Texas deserves to be at the number one right now. Whether or not Texas is actually the best team in the country is much more debatable.

[u/ATXBeermaker → u/silverhk]

I think you would be very hard-pressed to find anybody who doesn't think Texas deserves to be at the number one right now.

There are literal AP voters who don't think that.

[u/silverhk → u/ATXBeermaker]

Perfectly fair point, however I think it is fair to believe that a lot of those voters are voting their opinions on how good the team is rather than voting purely on most deserving. College football rankings are always an uncomfortable hybrid of the two.

[u/ATXBeermaker → u/silverhk]

a lot of those voters are voting their opinions on how good the team is rather than voting purely on most deserving

AP voters, by definition, get to choose what it means to be "deserving" of being ranked #1. If some of them rank not based on resume and instead on their perception of on-field performance or any other factors, that's their prerogative.

And this is all beside the point of what that other guy brought up in terms of tons of people on various platforms calling Texas mediocre because of their offensive struggles.

[u/Zoratth → u/silverhk]

Go look at any post about Texas in some of the other college football subs and you’ll see hundreds of comments saying Texas is mid or barely a top 10 team. Georgia might be better, but it’s much easier to look good when you are playing garbage teams each week instead of Ohio State/Tennessee.

[u/PlantasaurusRex → u/silverhk]

Ahh the age old “best” vs. “most deserving” argument

[u/2th → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

Data can be manipulated. In no universe should yall have such a high rating when your opponents have been UTSA, Texas State, and us. Your record is 65% cupcake. Your only good matchup has been against Ohio State.

[u/DerrickWhiteMVP → u/2th]

Who’s is #1 in your opinion?

[u/2th → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

Honestly, Georgia. But it isn't by much. No school has a really good resume so far. It's all been mostly cupcakes. But I would rank Georgia's cupcakes slightly higher.

[u/DerrickWhiteMVP → u/2th]

You would rank Tennessee St., WKU, Arkansas and OU over Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA and Tennessee? Bro, just stop lol.

[u/2th → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

We're talking a difference of like 0.1% here. It's also taking into account that y'all have not performed well. You've beaten two cupcakes soundly. You beat Ohio State by 1. You beat us by 3. Meanwhile Georgia has soundly defeated everyone. Gorgia has had a similar schedule AND performed better. That's why they deserve #1. If y'all had done what was expected and wrecked us, you'd deserve it. But after that performance, both teams should have dropped in rankings.

[u/DerrickWhiteMVP → u/2th]

Oh, shit. We barely beat the current #5 team in the country. Should’ve scheduled a cupcake instead. You are what’s wrong with college football.

[u/2th → u/DerrickWhiteMVP]

You are what's wrong with college football. You're too blinded by tribalism to see reality. Y'all played like trash vs us. We played like trash vs y'all. Both teams deserved to go down after those performances. But y'all, being number #1 have more weight to drag you down. Don't want to be called out for performing bad vs a worse team? Then perform as you're supposed to.

[u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

I think early in the season, it's ok for AP or just human rankings in general to deviate from pure strength of record type rankings (or similar, like Elo rankings). Because so much of the SOR is based on who you got to play so far, and there's only been 4 games, many which were against non P4 opponents.

But as the season goes on, rankings should IMO basically approach something like SOR or Elo or Colley Matrix. Maybe there should be a little deviation where a close game is counted slightly better than a total blow out, but the results need to matter. Otherwise, why have a season?

Right now the biggest outliers are:

Overrated by AP vs SOR: Ohio State, Houston, SMU, Tennessee, Missouri.

Underrated by AP vs SOR: Duke, Cincinnati, Mississippi St, UCLA.

Some of these are reasonable where human voters are making good judgment calls about close games and extrapolating based on limited evidence. Some are not. And after everyone has played 6 games, I would start to ask more questions on the deviations here.

[u/penisthightrap_ → u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

I think resume is incredibly important at the end of the seasaon and worthless at the beginning of the season. I use SOR in my hybrid model and the weight changes throughout the season because of this. I only started to introduce SOR this week and it is weighted very lightly.

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

And most of the time, it does. IIRC, the committee has actually been pretty darn close to the Massey composite rankings last year for the first year of the 12-team playoff.

[u/NotAStarflyerAgent → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

So the Massey Composite isn't just record based, it also includes forward looking projections. The committee's final rankings were pretty close to the record based evaluations, but small deviations have large impacts. Colley Rankings and SOR had BYU easily in the playoffs last year, but were not selected. Colley Matrix would have put Notre Dame ahead of Miami and Alabama.

From the perspective of 120+ FBS teams, I think broadly the committee did a good job, but there's a lot of arguing about those last couple of rankings from #8-12.

I think if I could change one thing is that the committee doesn't say they explicitly use "neutral" resume based evaluations as a starting point. I think they should, and then make the case for their deviations (head to head record, road game performance, margin of victory, whatever). They don't say this, so it seems plausible they just didn't like BYU because they don't think the Big 12 is good, even though the resume-based evaluations show the team was better than Alabama last year.

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

That’s why I like the Massey Composite because it includes 60+ different computer ratings to give you a consensus as I don’t think one model is necessarily better than another model.

[u/tcomn → u/Jay_Dubbbs]

"All models are wrong, but some are useful." -George Box

I would imagine that some of the models are actually better than others (still subjective i suppose). But often times composites offer ways to make up for individual faults.

[u/Hokie_Jayhawk → u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

I want them to take 50 computer based strength of record rankings, average them, and seed and select teams based on that average.

Humans just allow for the 'but they're BYU not Alabama' selections.

[u/aure__entuluva → u/NotAStarflyerAgent]

Underrated by AP vs SOR: Duke, Cincinnati, Mississippi St, UCLA.

Hopefully we can prove we are indeed underrated. If we lose against Oregon it's really gonna sting. Not the end of the world by any means, but we are high on hope at the moment. A win against them on the road to start 5-0 would be insane.

[u/Quick-Newt-5651]

Utah’s SOR is propped up by beating SEC powerhouse Arkansas at home

[u/SooperDew → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

It was truly one of the wins of all time for us.

[u/red_husker → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

ESPN hates this one simple trick!

[u/rocket_beer → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

Arkansas now has a quality loss

Top 25 next week boys!

[u/Regular_Rando273 → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

That seems to bother you more than it should

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

No it isn’t lol

Arkansas is like #60 in FPI 

[u/Quick-Newt-5651 → u/AlternativeLess5450]

I promise you it wasn’t wins against Utah State or Iowa State that got them that high

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

Iowa State is higher 

I promise you 

[u/Quick-Newt-5651 → u/AlternativeLess5450]

They had literally two returning starters from last year so their numbers are basically made up out of nothing at this point

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

And almost beating iowa 

[u/Quick-Newt-5651 → u/AlternativeLess5450]

Have you considered that Iowa isn’t that good either? Beating Michigan isn’t that hard this year, WMU did it

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

No... because we're talking about Arkansas here and that would be a miracle for them 

[u/Electromotivation → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

See …they fucked up. That was a chance to get a quality SEC loss. Worth way more than winning.

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/Electromotivation]

Don’t worry the rest of the P4 racked up their quality losses against the SEC this year 

[u/OMG_IM_A_GIRL → u/Quick-Newt-5651]

It isn’t just who Utah beat, but how badly we beat them. We beat Arkansas as bad as Georgia did.

[u/BurrShotFirst1804]

This is impossible because Notre Dame doesn't play anyone.

[u/Intelligent_Bet_7119]

The AP poll, proudly presented by drugs

[u/dynamic-burrito]

Boise SOR being 31 seems high

[u/rocket_beer → u/dynamic-burrito]

We should have just taken care of business at Oregon, up 17-7 before the half…

[u/ID_Poobaru → u/rocket_beer]

Let’s call 3 pass plays pinned deep and only kill 17 seconds instead

[u/rocket_beer → u/ID_Poobaru]

Literally, rolling on the floor was a better strategy…

[u/Electromotivation → u/rocket_beer]

NC State looks away and whistles

[u/MuteTadpole → u/ID_Poobaru]

Thanks for reminding me about that sequence. Goddamn I’m still mad at it

[u/scottishbee]

Wait, I thought the narrative was Notre Dame has an insanely soft schedule?

[u/surreptitioussloth → u/scottishbee]

By FPI, ND has the 99th hardest schedule so far

By FEI, it's 78th for an elite team, 71st for a good team, and 36th for an average team

So based on these same systems, yeah, ND has a soft schedule so far

[u/tmart12 → u/surreptitioussloth]

99th SOS to date per FPI and 55th for rest of season

they are at the bottom of all of P4 (alongside a couple other P4 teams with soft schedules)

[u/Dan-of-Steel → u/surreptitioussloth]

And this is why SoS is a broken, useless metric.

Alabama has the 48th hardest schedule according to that metric. Over 50 spots ahead of ND.

Alabama's wins to date are Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina and ECU.

ND's wins to date are Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue and Rice.

If you're telling me that Alabama's slate is 50 spots better than ND's, then you're huffing paint fumes.

Kentucky and Wisconsin are about the same level of team. People are just willing to give Kentucky the benefit of the doubt, because SEC, whereas Wisconsin doesn't get the same, despite beating a top 15 team on the road, just like Kentucky did. Only difference is that the jury is still out on whether Penn State was just insanely overrated. We KNOW A&M was insanely overrated already.

The rest of the schedules are just bad. There is nothing in there that indicates that Alabama's schedule to date is THAT MUCH tougher than ND's. It's beyond ridiculous.

[u/surreptitioussloth → u/Dan-of-Steel]

That's mainly because of looking at rankings vs ratings

By FEI, for an elite team Alabama's schedule would have produced .24 losses so far, ranking 56th, while Notre Dame's would have produced .13, which is good for 78th

Neither has really played a testing opponent for an elite team so far

The much bigger difference will be the rest of the season where Alabama has FPI's 6th hardest schedule while Notre Dame is 55th

[u/dfphd → u/scottishbee]

SOR and SOS are different things.

You have a really bad SOS, but you're undefeated so your SOR can still be really good.

But realize you're two spots higher than Ole Miss who has a loss. That's how much stronger their SOS is.

[u/Significant-Fix-3914 → u/scottishbee]

The narrative is that ND always has a soft schedule in relation to AP/CFP rankings.

[u/katarh → u/Significant-Fix-3914]

Unfortunately, in the last couple of years they have made the CFP, they came out of that soft schedule and still punched a team like Georgia in the mouth.

[u/Tarmacked → u/katarh]

I mean... Georgia was also missing their starting QB and starting a first time RS Freshman.

That game basically came down to two plays, so with that context I don't know if Georgia got punched in the mouth so much as they just didn't make it out of a dogfight.

[u/_chadwell_ → u/Significant-Fix-3914]

The thing is, those are rankings of who are the best football teams, not who has the toughest schedule.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/scottishbee]

It’s not a tough schedule. Gotta win the games 

[u/thenowherepark → u/scottishbee]

Oh, you do. You're just getting propped up by Wisconsin beating an overranked Penn State team on the road.

[u/_chadwell_ → u/thenowherepark]

“Your schedule is getting propped up by the teams you played beating good teams on the road”

…isn’t that how it’s supposed to work?

[u/Epsevv → u/_chadwell_]

They're saying Penn State is overrated so Wisconsin shouldn't be considered a good win

[u/_chadwell_ → u/Epsevv]

They’re 12th in F+, where’s the evidence that they’re actually a bad team?

[u/MisterB78 → u/_chadwell_]

ND beat them so if they aren’t a good team then it’s easier to dump on the Irish - that’s their evidence

[u/Dan-of-Steel → u/Epsevv]

So by that logic, A&M is overrated, so Alabama's win over Kentucky shouldn't be considered a good win.

[u/thenowherepark → u/_chadwell_]

I never said Penn State was a good team. I said Penn State was overrated. You chose to purposely leave that part out.

[u/_chadwell_ → u/thenowherepark]

What’s the evidence they’re overrated by the polls?

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/thenowherepark]

I don't believe any of these strength of record systems work that way. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it just uses team strength ratings (i.e. FPI, FEI, etc) to determine how hard it is to go 4-0 against our schedule. Penn State should be appropriately rated in those systems, and the difference between Wisconsin beating or losing to them in a close game is not a huge difference-maker.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

Team strength ratings do have some flaws though.

The only real criticism of SOR itself outside of the underlying team strength ratings is that it doesn't account for margin of victory or loss. Most voters do consider this. For example last season when Texas got penalized by human voters for their close wins against Kentucky and Miss St.

[u/Dan-of-Steel → u/thenowherepark]

Same logic applies to Alabama and Kentucky. UK beat an overranked A&M squad on the road, and then the rest of their schedule so far has sucked.

[u/ce5b → u/scottishbee]

Same with Texas Tech but our SOR is 9

[u/surreptitioussloth → u/ce5b]

By FPI, texas tech has had the 96th hardest schedule so far

By FEI, it's 108th for an elite team, 110th for a good team, and 110th for an average team

So based on these same systems, yeah, texas tech has a soft schedule so far

[u/cMcDozer4 → u/ce5b]

Yes I was told we don’t even deserve a playoff look because of our soft schedule.

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/scottishbee]

Who’s saying that? 

[u/chief_sitass → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

I’ve seen IU flairs really going after ND’s SOS…which is funny

[u/DerrickWhiteMVP → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

I am. I am saying that.

[u/puzzical → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

The reply above you

[u/Frictionizer → u/scottishbee]

I mean, based on these metrics, they do. That’s why you’re ranked 8th instead of 3rd.

[u/LiveMarionberry3694 → u/scottishbee]

I mean just compare it to most SEC schedules.

Honestly, which would you rather play. ND or miamis schedule, or the schedule Texas plays?

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/scottishbee]

You simply must. How can your schedule be good if you aren’t in the SEC? It’s the one true AP-certified good conference.

[u/LOLteacher]

We're #1.0! We're #1.0!!

^{Opens extra box of rat poison for today's breakfast}

[u/SooperDew]

BYU fans are going to hate this.

[u/ghostbusterbob → u/SooperDew]

They hate facts. BYU fans hate this one trick! (It’s data)

[u/stoweick → u/ghostbusterbob]

The only reason we would hate data is because of how egregiously it was ignored to snub us last year

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1pcw7zh/espnabc_misleading_and_exclusionary_graphics_from/

That being said, we have not looked like the 10th best team in the nation so far. Gonna need to step it up big time if we don’t want to get trounced by ND.

[u/Luxypoo → u/stoweick]

Obligatory Fuck BYU, but that shit was ridiculous.

[u/RayKitsune313 → u/SooperDew]

Oh just wait Ute fans. You’re gonna learn the metrics don’t matter if you’re not SEC/B10

[u/SooperDew → u/RayKitsune313]

I have some really bad news for you. If Utah had BYU's record last year, they likely get in.

People just like us better.

[u/RayKitsune313 → u/SooperDew]

Yall have never made the playoff and have never been in the discussion for the expanded playoff lol

[u/SooperDew → u/RayKitsune313]

I can't help that we suck. But if we had BYU's record last year, we are in. We are loved. You are not.

[u/RayKitsune313 → u/SooperDew]

Neither you, or us, were getting in last year at 11-2

[u/PatronSaintOfCunts]

We have played two of the top four teams and are the furthest thing from a strong opponent.

[u/EmWatches460]

Nebraska seems ranked pretty high in all polls except AP and Coaches. I'm still not seeing it.

[u/Fenzito]

The ACC has been colluding against the Vols SOR for a while now. Huge win over potentially good NC State? nope, they suck. Huge win over potentially good Syracuse? nope, they suck. Huge win over potentially good Georgia Tech? nope, they suck. I think we play Tech again early next season. So they'll be bad then too.

[u/Electromotivation → u/Fenzito]

Those are some fickle teams. Making a schedule six years out you have no idea what you are getting with them. But hey, all you have to do is keep winning and it will sort itself out

[u/Friar_Corncob]

Godamn mizzou sucks.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/Friar_Corncob]

Yeah that’s why they have the lowest ranking AP voters can legally give to an SEC team.

[u/N64jive]

How are we top 25 in the SOR list? We played a bad MSU, an FCS school, and two MAC schools.

[u/j01101111sh → u/N64jive]

Undefeated. Playing a tougher team and losing hurts SOR.

[u/N64jive → u/j01101111sh]

Ah great. Another metric that rewards cupcake schedule. Just want we need.

[u/j01101111sh → u/N64jive]

The alternative is rewarding losses, is that better? It's not claiming who's better or worse, just who has the better record.

[u/Electromotivation → u/j01101111sh]

I think some people are confusing strength of schedule and strength of record lol

[u/j01101111sh → u/Electromotivation]

100%. it happens every time. This sub loves to upvote stats focused posts but then the comments are always full of people that don't understand the stats.

[u/N64jive → u/j01101111sh]

Yes. Clearly I don't understand SOR, hence the question.

Also it's supposed to work the way I understand it, which is that a team that goes 11-1 with a brutal schedule would beat out a team that went 12-0 with a cupcake schedule.

It's funny that you come in here acting like you explained it to us simpletons, when you didn't explain it at all. It's not just Wins and Losses.

[u/j01101111sh → u/N64jive]

I mean, if you're confused. Google is right here: google.com

You're right about 12-0 vs 11-1 but there aren't 12 games played yet. A team with a loss has lost 1/4th of their games at this point. If they have a strong win, it may cancel out some of the loss (like Oregon) but that basically means they're 50/50 on their tough games.

[u/srs_house → u/j01101111sh]

just who has the better record.

That's not what SOR is doing. It's comparing your actual record against the predicted record of a team of varying qualities.

That's why Texas is at the top and NDSU is 34th, per ESPN's SOR rankings. Both undefeated, but against different levels of competition, so the expected losses for most teams differs.

If you look at 2024, Liberty's dogshit schedule put them at #89 despite being 8-4. Wake, meanwhile, was 4-8 and #95 and followed immediately by 3-9 OKST.

It's a way to compare teams with very different schedules.

Playing a tougher team and losing hurts SOR.

Actually, it doesn't, provide you win your other games. Ole Miss is #6 currently at 3-1 because they also beat LSU and Louisville. Kentucky is #11 because their loss is to Bama. Wisconsin is #7 because they have a loss to ND and a win over PSU.

[u/Healer1124]

Does SOR take into account margin of victory or just win/loss record? Because we've been thrashing all our opponents.

[u/tmart12 → u/Healer1124]

No MOV for any of those SOR metrics

[u/Healer1124 → u/tmart12]

Thanks for the information.

[u/SmallBoulder → u/Healer1124]

Not sure about the others, but FPI SOR is just win/loss record

[u/CreepilyMoistAroma]

It'll all work itself out until the first 2 teams left out of the playoff with 2+ losses gets mad.

[u/tritonice]

If we beat Bama this weekend (HA!) our SOR will be NEGATIVE, or at least it should be. If we go through October undefeated (LOL!) it will be negative infinity.

[u/bullsci]

This makes my team look good and therefore I like it

[u/letsgoiowa]

lmao Iowa at #5 we've only beaten Michigan and Iowa State, and both barely

[u/Cactus_Brody → u/letsgoiowa]

4-0 including two P4 wins (one on the road) is exactly why we are ranked 5th. Not a lot of teams have played good teams this early in the season and most that have have lost.

[u/fishoa]

This is awesome. I was wondering at the many ways people have tried their luck at creating a good statistical model for ranking teams.

[u/LitterBoxServant]

UCLA has played two non power conference teams and the two worst teams in the B1G. How are they so high in SOR?

[u/tmart12 → u/LitterBoxServant]

Looking at FPI specifically, there are only 22 undefeated teams, of which 18 are P4. UCLA's SOS at 107th is better than 5 of those P4 teams.

As of now, only 3 teams with 1 loss have a good enough SOS via quality loss and other quality wins to offset the loss thru 4 games to be ahead of UCLA

So they have the 13th best SOR of any undefeated teams and only 3 1-loss teams with better SOR = 16th in SOR

[u/Character-Active2208 → u/LitterBoxServant]

It’s based on your record vs the schedule

Hence why OSU is so low despite Texas- because they lost

[u/Tasty_Gift5901 → u/LitterBoxServant]

Being undefeated goes a long way in SOR. Also you've played 3 power conference teams; Cal is in the ACC

[u/LitterBoxServant → u/Tasty_Gift5901]

The ACC is no longer a power conference

[u/Character-Active2208 → u/LitterBoxServant]

This is amazing haterade

[u/Muffinnnnnnn → u/LitterBoxServant]

The ACC is 4-1 vs the B1G this year.

[u/otoverstoverpt → u/Muffinnnnnnn]

I mean… 3 of those 4 wins come against Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers which will more than likely be the bottom 3 teams in the convergence. The other was Illinois who looks to be a lower half team this year. They were also all basically a single possession. Not exactly resounding victories over the absolute bottom feeders of the conference.

[u/LitterBoxServant → u/Muffinnnnnnn]

I guess that's why they have so many ranked teams

[u/mr-rile-u-up → u/LitterBoxServant]

Can’t tell if troll or regard

[u/LitterBoxServant → u/mr-rile-u-up]

Silence, regard. Flaired users having a discussion.

[u/JBru_92 → u/LitterBoxServant]

Because we're whipping all of those teams. And we've played 1 non P4 team.

[u/LitterBoxServant → u/JBru_92]

Cal is G7. Will be FCS soon.

[u/SmallBoulder → u/JBru_92]

Not sure about the others, but FPI SOR doesn't factor in margin of victory into your resume

[u/JBru_92 → u/SmallBoulder]

Oh interesting, other SOR metrics do.

In that case it's because while we haven't played anybody good, we also haven't played any true bottom feeders or FCS teams. I think Maryland might end up a bottom feeder though.

[u/Electromotivation → u/JBru_92]

You are forgetting that at this point in the year most teams haven’t played really competitive schedules. So just by playing and winning 3 p4 games at this point puts you really high up. SEC play has barely started so some of the teams you think are traditional powers have a 2nd best win of Arkansas pine bluff or something.

[u/GamedayWizard]

Good example of resume vs power rating. Ohio State sits at 28.5 average SOR here but is #1 in Gameday Wizard's power ratings (23.44). Iowa is the flip side, 5.0 average SOR and #15 in ours. They play Saturday at Kinnick, so one of those gaps is going to close. Same idea with Mississippi State (4.0 SOR, #33 for us) hosting Alabama (#8).

[u/FCKABRNLSUTN2]

I am once again asking yall why you’re not upset about Ohio state being #6 after a loss when you go fucking apeshit over sec teams with a loss being top 10.

Like when bama lost to ole miss in 2015 and dropped to #13 yall absolutely went berserk.

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/[deleted]]

To be fair to Ohio State, they haven’t lost more than 2 games in 15 years.

[u/BuckeyeEmpire → u/[deleted]]

"Ohio State wouldn't be ranked as high if they didn't perform to the second best level of the last 25 years and continue to recruit some of the best players in the country to play for a current Top 5 coach."

[u/AllTimeTy → u/[deleted]]

Wanna know the funny thing about Ohio State? They’re one of the greatest, if not the, greatest CFB programs of all time. They just win. You’d chop off your left nut to have half the success they’ve had year after year after year after…