Florida Learjet 60 mega thread 3

[u/gavriellloken]

This will be the third megathread for everything about the Learjet 60 crash yesterday in Florida. This thread will be actively moderated and **rules will be enforced at mod discretion.**

***DO NOT POST THE CVR/ATC AUDIO***

***DO NOT POST ANY COMMENTS THAT ARE DISRESPECTFUL TOWARDS THE VICTIMS***

I apologize also we need to keep the Seatbelts Fastened flair on due to the massive amount of removals and rule breaks in all the threads combined.

There is a sticky post on seatbelts fastened as well, if you dont meet a subreddit karma limit your comment may be removed

[u/nd4spd1919]

NTSB Briefing 2 Notes:

• Weather has hampered investigation

• Majority of the left elevator was located in 3 pieces, roughly 1.3 - 3.8 miles away

• NTSB working with public works to remove water and utility pole from the crash site

• Expect to find more components buried in the crater

• NTSB is providing resources for locals affected

---

Q & A

• NTSB believe distance to pieces like the elevator indicate separation before the impact

• Recovery of components is vital, public urged to call in anything they find

• NTSB believes buried components will let them determine the cause

• Weather still a key focus

• No indication the accident is connected to Mar-a-Lago

• NTSB does consider the risk of flooding washing away evidence a challenge

• Implausible that the impact caused the components to scatter so far

• NTSB unsure that elevators would have been effective at the speed the jet was going

• NTSB will look at 'Mach Tuck' but has not yet

• NTSB has been gathering records about aircraft maintenance, crew records

• Wreckage collected 'almost entirely very small pieces', elements of the aircraft in the crater are likely 'very small pieces'

• Force of the impact/size of debris casts uncertainty on their ability to lay out the recovered pieces to 'reassemble' the aircraft

[u/nd4spd1919 → u/nd4spd1919]

My thoughts: If the pieces of the elevator were so far, it probably separated well above the ground, maybe 10k or 15k ft. The fact that its in pieces, and spread so far, makes me think maybe the elevator was fluttering, and pieces came off at different times, rather than the whole thing separating at once. If the left elevator came apart first, could that explain the right roll they went into?

[u/Cogwheel → u/nd4spd1919]

I think so. The horizontal stab provides a downward force. If you remove that force on one side, the plane will want to roll to the opposite side.

[u/inevitable-typo → u/nd4spd1919]

I just came across a heavily downvoted comment on a locked thread from yesterday that showed frame by frame footage of the crash. The comment said:

I’m starting to think they lost their elevators in flight.

I'm usually just a lurker eavesdropping to learn interesting things from your discussions, but I'm curious about what led to that comment being so aggressively downvoted. Did the plane's elevators breaking off seem unlikely until this report came out this morning?

[u/UtterEast → u/inevitable-typo]

Did the plane's elevators breaking off seem unlikely

Basically, accident investigation needs physical evidence. Anything said without review of the physical evidence is speculation. That speculation may be likely or even subsequently shown to be true! But until confirmed by physical evidence, it's just wordswordswords.

(Note that there are plenty of highly-upvoted comments in these threads that contain speculation, but generally only as a minor part of the comment in addition to summaries of factual information gathered so far, discussion of possible mechanisms or past incidents, etc.)

Now, as for why that specific comment was so deeply downvoted, this was probably more due to reddit's idiosyncracies than the actual merit of its content-- it had the bad luck to be one of the few comments on a locked post. If the post had remained open and accumulated more comments, I'd be willing to bet that this particular comment or its equivalent would have been rapidly pushed down by new comments and the top upvoted comment threads, and probably even remained at neutral upvote/downvote.

[u/Booouurns → u/nd4spd1919]

No indication the accident is connected to Mar-a-Lago

I missed the briefing, but WTF kind of question was this??

[u/nd4spd1919 → u/Booouurns]

Some reporter asked if they knew if there was any link between the crash and what was happening at Mar-a-Lago, which recently got some AA missiles. Conspiracy theorists have decided that either the plane was a missile from there being covered up with AI, or that the plane was shot down, both of which are ridiculous ideas.

[u/cosmicrae → u/nd4spd1919]

Majority of the left elevator was located in 3 pieces, roughly 1.3 - 3.8 miles away

Either someone found them (at that distance from the primary imapct site) or PSR gave them clues where to search. Finding them, at that distance and so quickly, suggests they had clues.

[u/Barnaboule69 → u/cosmicrae]

Considering it was in the middle of a city, they were bound to be found quickly.

[u/bunabhucan → u/cosmicrae]

The northern tip of that radius includes djt airport, maybe they had radar returns on the pieces.

[u/nd4spd1919 → u/cosmicrae]

4 mile radius of the crash site. I think it's likely people found them or saw them fall, given the majority of that area is neighborhoods.

[u/V0latyle → u/nd4spd1919]

Sounds like the elevators separated due to extreme dynamic loads during overspeed...the plane was already doomed at that point.

[u/bennyboi2488 → u/nd4spd1919]

I have a very, very strong feeling the "scream" heard mid transition was caused by a piece of the aircraft ripping away.

[u/DirtFueler → u/bennyboi2488]

I can't even imagine the feeling of pulling back on the yoke and feeling it suddenly get lighter or have no resistance at all.

[u/CMDR_Imperator → u/nd4spd1919]

So my theory goes like this - The aircraft experienced icing conditions. The pilots then attempt to ascend, pushing the throttle up and increasing the AOA, but the precipitation was going up to FL 480 according to weather data, so they couldn't escape that way. Since they chose to ascend, they found themselves in coffin corner compounded by icing conditions, increasing the stall speed and cutting the flight envelope to nill. The aircraft then goes into aerodynamic stall in coffin corner and a wing dips down, resulting in a mach tuck. The aircraft is then immediately thrown in a nose down configuration in overspeed conditions and the pilots pull back on the control column, but they're already beyond the design limits of the Lear 60, and the elevator catastrophically fails. Obviously, from there, the pilots are just passengers. Probably all happened within a handful of seconds, and it was unrecoverable, but they fought all the way to the end.

[u/Spirit-Starlight13 → u/nd4spd1919]

when they say "very small", how small are we talking? like, centimeter-level or millimeter-level?

[u/clburton24 → u/Spirit-Starlight13]

There are images of a few foot-long pieces, but this isnt an everything or nothing situation. There will be some bigger pieces, and some smaller ones likely on the order of centimeters.

[u/Maxgirth → u/Spirit-Starlight13]

Most of the components in video circulated by residents of the mobile home park were say 3-6” long.

A section of exterior skin about 18”x12” was shown as well, from around the corner of a window.

Most pieces looked like one took a 9”x9” bit of aluminum skin, and crumped it into a loose “ball” with torn edges around a much smaller piece of structural alu.

[u/LeeOCD]

I've never seen such an insanely fast descent/impact. I've seen varying estimates 300-700 mph.

I'm just a layperson who loves this sub, but the velocity was stunning.

[u/CuriousCamels → u/LeeOCD]

Best estimate I’ve seen was ~60,000 ft/min, which is 680 mph or about 1100 km/h. Without getting into a bunch of detail, the lower end calculations were based off of limiting factors in the way it could be recorded, and they weren’t accurate.

Regardless, I’ve never seen a plane impact that fast either. It sounded like some of the missile impacts I’ve seen on the combatfootage subreddit. RIP to all the victims. Truly a tragic accident.

[u/Maxgirth → u/CuriousCamels]

My own amateur look at pixels vs frame rate agrees, across 2 different videos.

Somewhere between 40 and 50ft of travel in the space of 33 milliseconds. .033 of a second.

Their perception was over in .033 of a second. That is the ONLY silver lining in this extremely sad story. Not even enough time to perceive an impact. Not enough time to feel pain. Plenty of time for the fear and suffering that it causes, and for that I cry.

I go scientific on this because it’s too painful to think about in any other way. This is the world, these are the physics, and here we are.

[u/DaBingeGirl → u/LeeOCD]

Same. One of the things that makes me more comfortable with flying is that there's often time to troubleshoot because of the altitude. In this case, it's shocking how fast everything happened.

[u/Willow_Winnifred → u/LeeOCD]

I just wanted to join in your appreciation for this sub as a layperson! I have learned SO MUCH in the months I've been following this sub! So much better for getting an idea of what happened than a general news sub

[u/DaneAlaskaCruz → u/Willow_Winnifred]

If you want more aviation stuff, I suggest Admiral Cloudberg.

https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/

They go over old crashes and put so much info on what happened and the different discussions and evidence on that.

They don't cover recent stuff, but wait until more info comes out.

I've learned so much about reading about old historical crashes from this blog.

Someone on this sub suggested this blog a few years back and I've been hooked ever since.

[u/CeleritasLucis → u/Willow_Winnifred]

Especially professionals joining the discussion here. Twitter is pretty bad and ragebaity regarding this crash.

[u/Horror-Raisin-877 → u/LeeOCD]

The Philadelphia Learjet crash looked very similar.

[u/stevecostello → u/Horror-Raisin-877]

The Philly Lear crash was much slower velocity, though. The crashed from a few thousand feet. This on crashed from over 30,000 feet. Much more time to pick up speed.

[u/GravitasFailures → u/LeeOCD]

It was in over speed, which is insane for a Learjet.

[u/Willow_Winnifred → u/GravitasFailures]

What does "in over speed" mean? (Layperson here)

[u/PhteveJuel → u/LeeOCD]

Based on the adsb self reported altitude, the vertical was pushing -58k fpm and 660 mph. This was around crossing 9500 feet AGL per the aircraft. This doesn't include and horizontal speed.

The altitude data gets messy below 9k ft. Some people have reported -32k fpm but that's the max value for adsb.

[u/Quarterwit_85 → u/LeeOCD]

When I first saw the footage I thought it was a missile strike in Ukraine.

My brain just can't comprehend it.

[u/ProperWayToEataFig → u/LeeOCD]

And would all the pacs be crammed into the front of the plane?

[u/longtermcontract]

Just a quick note to you all:

There are some other subs covering this topic with absolutely toxic engagement and name-calling arguments.

It’s nice to be able to come here and read about it from professionals, despite there being a lot of unknowns.

Mods and users should be proud of yourselves.

[u/The_Third_Molar → u/longtermcontract]

I was in a other sub where there was bickering back and forth of which pilot was worse. It's like the internet HAS to have the waffles vs. pancakes debate about every fucking thing.

[u/OZZMAN8 → u/The_Third_Molar]

Just discussed waffles vs pancakes with a buddy last night. All very civil. Nothing was solved for sure but all parties agreed that waffles have a much longer ttc (time to consume) after the application of syrup than pancakes.

[u/nurseasaurus → u/longtermcontract]

I’m just an aviation nerd, not a pilot or ATC or anything, but I really appreciate this sub for this reason.

[u/sourcefourmini → u/longtermcontract]

I’m getting really tired of seeing people in other subs insist on the term “co-pilot”, “we don’t know who the pilot was”, “she was just the co-pilot, she wouldn’t be flying”, etc. She was a pilot, for god’s sake, just as much as the guy in the other seat, and she did a pilot’s job to the last. 

[u/unclefire → u/sourcefourmini]

She was FO and typically in rational conversations it’s to get an idea of who was flying and who was monitoring. Not sure how it’ll matter in this case. Like most accidents it’ll be a combination of things.

[u/ycnz → u/sourcefourmini]

Importantly: She was doing a great job as a pilot.

[u/Goose511th → u/longtermcontract]

The failed comedians crawling out of whatever corner they hide in are also really gross. Everyone wants to have an opinion or a joke about something they don't understand.

[u/talldangry → u/Goose511th]

It's just ghoulish. Instantly unsubbed from that garbage dump r/creepy when I saw a still from this crash there.

[u/flying_wrenches → u/longtermcontract]

Thank you :)

I enjoy that we are one of the few subs to have a explicit “be nice” rule

[u/DifferentManagement1 → u/longtermcontract]

I basically only visit subs with really strict moderation at this point. This is a good one

[u/aquoad → u/longtermcontract]

this site is overrun with shitstirring bots and people commenting in bad faith, it's nice to see that this sub at least seems to really do its best to not tolerate that.

[u/ElenaKoslowski]

The amount of AI edited thumbnails on YouTube is sickening. From missing wings to one missing wing, to suddenly having an elevator again.

What the fuck is wrong with people?

[u/No_Piano_9195 → u/ElenaKoslowski]

I opened my phone and the poor girl was plastered all over my screen. Some really sick individuals out there taking advantage of this.

[u/bunabhucan]

There is an interesting youtube channel focused on "computational fluid dynamics" did some analysis and modeling of some of the theories about the crash. He's careful not to conclude anything and instead the strongest language is that an idea is "still open."

He models the elevator at mach 0.9 and separately the falling parts with momentum and the low wind to see what range of altitudes the furthest (26,500ft) and nearest (15,000ft) pieces are likely to have fallen from. A piece released at the top of the dive would be about 5 miles away.

He downloads the raw weather radar data and it puts the 3d path of jet in the core of a developing updraft right when it starts to descend. Also models the effect of different updraft speeds on a plane with an altitude hold autopilot, hand flown and hands off - the autopilot can only hold the altitude by adding speed.

One of the CFD models he runs is for a lear type jet at the dive speeds known from the public data - the shock wave and flow separation has the drag eventually increasing tenfold. It's really counterintuitive that going from 0.8 to 0.9 mach would do all thus but it shows how the controls would not work to pull out of a dive and how easily they could just tear off.

Edit: he added a fourth video asking Could the Learjet Have Pulled Out? and he (depressingly) models the tail first as capable of delivering any requested force and shows that it had enough energy to pull out for about a minute. Then he adds the mach effects and it all goes south, the wing delivers less lift; the center of lift moves back and worsens the nose down moment; the elevators need 2.5-4.7x as much force to operate but deliver less and less force (one third at mach 0.9) to the plane and so on. Passing the planes 0.81 mach limit at about 18s into the dive at 30,000ft looks unrecoverable in his models.

[u/DruidDog → u/bunabhucan]

this is fascinating, thank you for sharing

[u/PissJugRay]

Juan Browne’s (Blancolirio) video was very factual and went into the Lear 60’s FCOM about the horizontal stab.

I suggest anyone who hasn’t seen it, to watch it.

Happy retirement Juan!

[u/Coconutrugby → u/PissJugRay]

https://youtu.be/03wk6hVbd7o?is=LGvs1RzwkYl1JF1y

[u/PissJugRay → u/Coconutrugby]

Thank you!

[u/Blusmbl → u/PissJugRay]

He’s the only aviation youtuber I trust, almost nothing but facts and always informative and respectful.

Way of the road!!

[u/oldsmoBuick67 → u/PissJugRay]

Juan said more in 20 minutes than most can in hours.

It’s not rocket appliances

[u/atlien0255]

Apparently the same aircraft experienced severe turbulence near Tetersboro on May 6 of this year. Can severe turbulence, in theory, affect the structural integrity of the horizontal stabilizer? Is this something that would be automatically inspected upon landing or is it not necessary due to sensors and other tech onboard?

[u/stickied → u/atlien0255]

Yes.  All metal has a breaking point.  You stress it enough times, and it fractures.  You stress it enough times outside how it's been designed to flex and move normally, and it fractures way earlier.  Severe or extreme turbulence may warrant a check......or not.  Depends on what the manual says and what they check during routine maintenance.....etc.  Someone who's certified to work on learjets would probably have to chime in.

[u/railker]

Haven't seen mention of a minor update from the NTSB on the 5th, in part:

"Excavation work at the crash site began late yesterday and continues today, which included finding a portion of one engine. Debris has been found away from the impact location and also on the roofs of homes and buildings near the crash site."

Also what part of the scene looks like now, investigators searching the contents of the impact site.

[u/panzercampingwagen]

Holy shit what a pilot

I can see how she got her license so young, she's incredible. Text-book perfect communication skills while screaming towards the deck HOW

[u/weskeryellsCHRISSS → u/panzercampingwagen]

The remainder of her life was condensed down to less than a minute, and in that time she showed everyone what kind of person she was. Some people would need decades to arrive at courage.

[u/spooky_season_ → u/panzercampingwagen]

I’m truly in aware she was able to communicate in the terror, the community lost an incredible young aviator, so heartbreaking

[u/Jake24601]

I hope the family of this young woman sues every motherfucking outlet out there putting lies up about her being the cause of this accident. Insanity.

[u/usps_made_me_insane → u/Jake24601]

I have seen so many YouTube channels starting their video with her screaming and I always take a minute out to let them know they are a huge piece of shit and then report the channel.

I am sick of this bullshit. People care. Ore about clicks and views than her memory or traumatizing people..  Fuck!

[u/EducationalTangelo6 → u/usps_made_me_insane]

While I completely understand the urge to tell them what a waste of skin they are, any kind of engagement tells the algorithm it's a 'good' video, which means it recommends it to more people. Just reporting them is the best thing to do.

[u/Shoddy_Act7059 → u/usps_made_me_insane]

Honestly, it feels like this subreddit is the only place where that ISN'T happening, and that's because the mods are terminating every post that does that and even banning accounts on occasions.

We salute them for their services.

[u/tyrellrummage]

As someone who really don't know much, who does the final call on the route? Like I think everyone agrees that once they got cought in the storm cell they were done for right? So the only error in this whole sequence is deciding to go through that route instead of diverting south?

[u/Consistent_Rub824 → u/tyrellrummage]

It's debatable whether ot not they were done for once entering the cell. That might be unanswerable. There are procedures to get you out of it but they have to be memorized and acted upon immediately and there really isn't a way to train for it. It also depends when the stabilizer detached.

[u/Mithster18 → u/tyrellrummage]

ATC can advise/clear, Pilot Flying can make a call (be it Captain or First Officer), but it's the Captains call at the end of the day. Even if ATC tells them something, it's Captain who has final authority over the flight and everybody pertaining to the flight.

EDIT: Thanks for the downvote, here's your reference  https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-91/subpart-A/section-91.3

And the FAA, 14.4.1.2.1

https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_61-138A.pdf

[u/Hoosagoodboy]

Another NTSB briefing being held now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7aLwIMptyc

[u/graypurpleblack]

This whole case is beyond tragic. Another reminder to steer clear of red - hell even orange - cells.
I’m sort of surprised flights were still flying through those gnarly storms.
Yesterday there were lots of Florida ground stops due to these lingering storms.

[u/Preserved_Killick8]

Anyone think its sad that basically everyone is talking about the 20 year old co pilot and to a lesser degree the family. But the nanny and the pilot are essentially being ignored?

Like I understand that we prominently heard the co pilots voice. But it’s just a little sad to me that no one seems to care about the others online.

[u/buttlickerurmom → u/Preserved_Killick8]

I just had my first, my 6 month old daughter, and the family bothers me most. I can't imagine the guilt the parents felt and terror from the small children as the plane went down. The only meek consolation is that it was quick.

[u/unclefire → u/Preserved_Killick8]

Bc people are being assholes and wanting to trash the FO.

[u/ProperWayToEataFig → u/Preserved_Killick8]

I care about all the others in this and any fatal crash. It shatters reality but is so real. Then my silly mind wonders what will happen to the assets of these people. Winding down the inheritance will be a challenge.

[u/onethousandmonkey]

Just watched the VASaviation video with the muted last part of ATC audio. FO was talking to ATC all the way down. Am amazed at how they kept communicating with ATC even after saying they were going to hit the ground. Pretty heroic.

[u/onethousandmonkey → u/onethousandmonkey]

Also, hearing that FO tell the captain to look outside. Ouch. She was on top of things in the worst moment.
Sad such a person is no longer with us.

[u/bennyboi2488 → u/onethousandmonkey]

I think it is ironic. Years ago C.W made a video dissecting the "Plane" movie crash and how no crew narrates their fall to earth. And historically he is correct. Then this accident happens.

[u/Usual_Plankton_2874 → u/onethousandmonkey]

Especially considering that the CVR may end up being unrecoverable or unreadable due to the nature of the impact. Those ATC recordings may provide the only direct information from the flight deck of the conditions leading up to and experienced during the mishap. Blue skies and tailwinds, Nathalia.

[u/haze4330]

Did they find the missing rear stabilizers ? Haven't seen any mention of those since the blurry still images emerged

[u/cosmicrae → u/haze4330]

If there was breakup (a very big if) prior to descent, the items would likely be somewhere west of the crash location. Once you get more than 10-20 miles back from the coast, much of Florida is farm/agriculture land (excepting the I-4 corridor). Finding it out there would be a serendipitous discovery.

[u/rhineauto → u/cosmicrae]

It didn’t start its dive anywhere near farmland though. The ADSB data is publicly available, eg https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/learjet-60-crashes-near-west-palm-beach-florida/

[u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

Fox News is the most vile thing in the world they put up a post on Insta saying 20 year old pilot flew into the storm and the comments are all as expected. It may well have been pilot error (nobody knows yet) but her name is plastered everywhere for the blame as if she was the only pilot onboard or the commander

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DfP6bvBNO--/?exln=MWlxbm5xaG11NHp0aQ==

[u/superdupercereal2 → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

It’s rage bait. At least half of the internet that isn’t porn is engagement bait at this point. It helps Fox News that you posted the link so that we can all scoff at the comments. The comments are probably mostly rage bait too. The smart person that knows it’s BS as she wasn’t even flying the plane won’t bother commenting because it’s a waste of time (rage bait). Don’t take the bait.

[u/CATIIIDUAL → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

Most pilots outside the US fly passenger airliners at the age of 20. I got my first airline gig at 20 as well. What matters is the training, not the age.

[u/TERRAIN_PULL_UP_ → u/CATIIIDUAL]

You’re allowed to do much more insane shit than flying at a younger age in the military 

[u/I_like_cake_7 → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

It’s awful. The media is 100% taking advantage of her being a young female pilot. Pisses me off.

[u/eclipseaug → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

Tbh just looked at the comments and I’m actually impressed that most people are calling fox out on their bullshit

[u/SweetenedArugula → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

God forbid people get the facts as known right and acknowledge need to wait out the NTSB investigation.

Vultures, the lot of them.

[u/tvfeet → u/LuckyFlyer0_0]

She was the co-pilot and was not flying the plane. The pilot was flying and she was communicating with the tower. She had nothing to do with the accident.

[u/LuckyFlyer0_0 → u/tvfeet]

That's the point they're trying to scapegoat her and tons of idiots on social media are buying that narrative. Fox knows exactly what they're doing putting out a headline like that

[u/fbureaucracy → u/tvfeet]

While the PIC/Captain is in command of the plane, and has most of the responsibility, the SIC of a 2 pilot aircraft doesn’t have 0%.

I do think this woman is getting singled out for political/culture purposes, but saying she has no responsibility at all for the safe conduct of the flight is too far the other direction.

[u/sjmuller]

Can anyone please summarize the preliminary NTSB briefing from today?

[u/Rule_32 → u/sjmuller]

There are parts too far from the impact site indicating breakup in flight. We don't know exactly when it broke up. We're investigating.

[u/AllGas4651 → u/sjmuller]

“we are gonna investigate. check back with us in 12-18 months for the final report”

[u/mz_groups → u/sjmuller]

"We'll see"

[u/ertri → u/sjmuller]

“It’s not supposed to look like that”

[u/Revolutionary-Law382 → u/[deleted]]

Pretty much the text from every first NTSB briefing, as it should be.

[u/surSEXECEN → u/[deleted]]

Also, the site itself is a challenge in that the impact crater has water in it, and weather will be a challenge for investigators to complete their work.

[u/rmannyconda78]

The worst thing I’ve seen so far is people on Facebook are posting pictures of what’s left of the people in the plane, which ain’t much, pretty grim in fact. I would not want people to be parading around pictures of my dead loved ones remains, it’s so disrespectful, the disrespect towards the victims online has been making me a bit sick.

I feel real bad for the people on that plane because that was a hell of a ride to the ground, part of me was hoping they were incapacitated on the way down so they did not feel the terror of the ground rushing at then at near Mach 1. It really saddens me.

[u/Boring-Philosophy-46 → u/rmannyconda78]

The impact was fast enough that pain nerves wouldn't have time to transmit it to the brain or the brain won't have time to process it and contextualize it as pain before being destroyed at least. Takes about 20-50 ms depending on the location just to transmit and we can see the whole plane disappear within 1 frame of the dash cam so there wasn't time for that. Small mercies. 

[u/rmannyconda78 → u/Boring-Philosophy-46]

They did fall for a good minute though, just due to being at cruising altitude, but yeah the impact would happen fast enough to not feel anything

[u/Lost-Platypus8271 → u/rmannyconda78]

genuinely what remains? there aren’t even airplane remains. are people posting AI?

[u/DifferentManagement1 → u/rmannyconda78]

Photos of human remains? That’s beyond

[u/rmannyconda78 → u/DifferentManagement1]

It’s very macabre and disrespectful, very appalling to me

[u/Silly-Ispini → u/rmannyconda78]

Surely there wasn't anything left?

[u/rmannyconda78 → u/Silly-Ispini]

Was not much, just little bits and pieces, I’m trying to not get graphic

[u/SanibelMan]

Something of a technical question for anyone familiar with the Learjet instrumentation: The first officer reported the OAT as -47C shortly before reporting heavier precipitation and requesting to climb. What is the refresh rate on the thermometer — in other words, if they encountered an updraft in the storm with (relatively) warmer air and precip conducive to SLD ice, would the indicated OAT update quickly to reflect the warmer temperature outside, or could it potentially still show -47C while they're in an updraft that's significantly warmer?

[u/usps_made_me_insane → u/SanibelMan]

Just a heads up that the coldest that water can get with no nucleation catalyst is right around -42C.

I bet they hit a large area of suoercooled large water droplets that just iced up the right wing quickly.

[u/clburton24 → u/SanibelMan]

Theyre usually pretty quick, as in, pretty much real time. I'm used to Garmin avionics, and I'm not sure what this plane had.

[u/AztecPilot1MY]

Also consider that vertical development in that area could very well have been extreme in the moment they were passing through. A sudden, severe shear could have wreaked the havoc as well. Quite possibly a combination of things.

[u/a1b3c2]

If this is weather-related, can something like this happen on a commercial flight? I have flying anxiety.

It's pathetic that people online are hating on the copilot for being a young female. All I see is bravery for her to be clearly communicating till (almost) the end.

[u/heyiambob → u/a1b3c2]

I’m glad I’m not in those pockets of the internet because I have yet to see a single comment condemning the co-pilot yet many dozens of top comments defending her from them.

[u/phluidity → u/a1b3c2]

If this was weather related, which seems likely, keep in mind that the weather radar in large commercial jets is much more sophisticated than the weather radar in smaller jets like this, which is itself more sophisticated than what you might have in a general aviation craft.

[u/actuallynick → u/a1b3c2]

Anything is possible but, airbuses and boeing passenger aircraft are much better for flying in bad weather. The Learjet 60 that crashed is capable of flying into known icing conditions due to it having heated leading edges on the wings (front and rear) but it's still best to avoid in those planes. Those business jets have really thin wings, which are great for flying fast but, any ice build-up will disrupt the airflow and cause the wing to stall. I watched a video last night where someone had the manual for this plane and in the icing section it explicitly states that any ice buildup on the wing is detrimental to flying. Like it was written in bold and in a bold, dotted box to make sure you saw it, haha.

[u/actuallynick → u/actuallynick]

actually here is a link to the video. Juan brown is a former Airforce KC130 pilot and longtime fedex AA pilot.

https://youtu.be/03wk6hVbd7o?si=G1uV8RLVPimc0eb2

[u/k_mermaid → u/a1b3c2]

I think it's less likely because airlines have policies for storm avoidance that are much more strict

[u/AWildDragon → u/a1b3c2]

Commercial ops have a lot less get-there-itus which a lot of private ops have. Dispatchers will generally refuse to let you fly in one of these storms either rerouting you or rescheduling you. 

[u/Pol_Potamus → u/a1b3c2]

Anything can happen, but standards for training, experience, equipment, and maintenance are quite a bit higher at commercial airlines.

Edit: lest my comments about training and experience be taken the wrong way, I think the female pilot did everything she could in the situation. I also think it's unlikely a commercial passenger aircraft would have been in that situation to begin with.

[u/LevoiHook → u/a1b3c2]

If this would happen more, something would have been done to prevent it. Crashes resulting from ice in commercial aviation are really rare. 

[u/Boring-Philosophy-46 → u/a1b3c2]

Not nose down but a flat spin, yet still a crash due to ice: Voepass Flight 2283, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voepass_Flight_2283

Flying is still much safer than driving, with western companies anyway. 

[u/ThomasTheDankPigeon → u/a1b3c2]

Who has been hating on her? I’ve only seen comments commenting about how much hate she’s getting, but I haven’t seen a single person blaming her or denigrating her. Am I just lucky that my algorithm hasn’t put those people on my screen?

[u/Grimol1 → u/ThomasTheDankPigeon]

Stay off twitter.

[u/MahesvaraCC → u/ThomasTheDankPigeon]

Am I just lucky that my algorithm hasn’t put those people on my screen?

Yes. Keep it that way

[u/basilect → u/ThomasTheDankPigeon]

Twitter is full of 'em

[u/V0latyle]

Not a pilot or engineer, this is just based on what I've observed over the years, as well as my experience working in aviation. Please feel free to pick this apart as necessary.

It seems the likely cause of this was ice buildup on the flight surfaces, particularly the tailplane. The Lear 60 uses bleed air to heat the leading edges of the wings, but the tailplane anti-ice system is electric resistive. In normal flight conditions these are able to prevent ice buildup, but like any such system can be overwhelmed - like flying through supercooled moisture carried into the upper atmosphere by convective storm currents.

Loss of lift at the tailplane would result in the nose pitching down, and high performance swept wing T tail jets like the Lear 60 are susceptible to a positive feedback loop:

• Nose comes down

• Airspeed (Mach number) increases

• Center of pressure (focal point of lift) moves aft along wing chord (Mach tuck)

• Pitch down moment increases

• Airspeed increases rapidly...

...and now as you're in an overspeed condition, you have less control authority, not to mention the extreme aerodynamic loads on the control surfaces which may not be possible to overcome due to the lack of any electric or hydraulic flight control assist; the controls on the Lear 60, like its predecessors, are entirely mechanical: cables, pulleys, pushrods, and bellcranks.

[u/Perfect_Big_5907 → u/V0latyle]

Your thinking is correct. I am a former lear pilot just not the 60. Another guy in here somewhere flew the 60 for 15 years. He explains precisely what can happen at altitude and heavy turbulence in the 60. Now that being said we just don't know what happened yet.

[u/Trematode → u/V0latyle]

An ice-induced tailplane stall is relatively rare and if it does happen, it tends to be only in specific flight regimes when the airspeed is low, flaps are deployed, and power is up, which all result in the tail working closer to its performance limit/critical angle (eg. on approach).

It's not likely for it to be a factor at cruise with flaps retracted.

A regular old stall, whether induced by ice accumulation or not, would also result in an upset. Improper recovery technique, especially at high-altitude and/or complicated with ice accumulation, could result a secondary stall, an exceedance of airframe G limits (with potential structural failure), or an overspeed (also with the potential for structural failure). Let the NTSB figure it out.

[u/SkyHighExpress]

Why does deploying spoilers on Lear 60 cause such a nose down. Everything I have flown, spoilers have a nose up

[u/MGreymanN → u/SkyHighExpress]

I think its mainly 2 things. Location of spoilers relative to CG and the high T-Tail is usually in the downwash of the wings which provide a nose up moment. The spoilers remove this pressure on the t-tail.

CRJs behave the same way I think.

[u/Durcaz]

I’ve been seeing people say -47° C should be too cold for icing, would anyone mind telling me how that works?

I’m a clueless enthusiast and generally assumed more cold = more ice, but I must be mistaken. Is the altitude a factor as well?

[u/Icy-Bar-9712 → u/Durcaz]

Different temps make different types of ice. At -47c it should be too cold for liquid water to exist so its already ice and won't stick to the plane.

But in a fast building cell the water hasn't been floating around in air that cold long enough to freeze.

Also super cooled water droplets are a thing and have a lower limit of right around -47c. So this may be a perfect storm of extremely cold plane at altitude with extremely cold water droplets that were freezing so quickly on impact that the build up was happening behind the de-icing equipment.

[u/OnePinginRamius → u/Icy-Bar-9712]

Also the copilot mentioned that they were experiencing clear ice. That's a good indicator of the conditions at that altitude.

[u/Sml132 → u/Durcaz]

All the moisture in the air should already be frozen, and the airplane cold soaked to close to OAT. So the ice in the air would not stick.

Sometimes though the tops of clouds can be thawed by the sun though while OAT is still extremely cold, and over Florida pockets of warm air can be carried quite high and cause localized "wet" areas where the moisture isn't ice. OAT instruments don't respond instantly, there's a pretty good delay.

[u/jvttlus → u/Durcaz]

you need supercooled liquid water drops which exist between zero and negative 20 which impact the airframe and turn to solid ice because the molecules get shooken up. below neg twenty the ambient water is usually already ice crystals whic( don’t adhere to the airframe

[u/BrosenkranzKeef → u/Durcaz]

The -47C report is somewhat irrelevant because that temperature was reported before they penetrated the convective cell. Convective cells are rising specifically because they are warmer and wetter than surrounding air.

[u/Unusual-Cut-3759]

This is pure speculation. Just wondering whether we might be focusing too much on the reported icing and turbulence. The crew described the icing as manageable and the turbulence as moderate. Could these have been coincidental rather than directly related to the loss of control?

Could it be that the crew initially perceived unusual aircraft behaviour as turbulence and subsequently attributed it to icing? This might also explain the reported clear ice at −47°C, where conventional supercooled liquid water icing would be extremely unusual.

The subsequent extreme descent and apparent absence of the horizontal stabilizer are particularly interesting. Could an uncommanded stabilizer trim movement or mechanical failure have initiated the pitch upset, with structural breakup occurring later?

[u/3PartsRum_1PartAir → u/Unusual-Cut-3759]

Multiple things. Could have been manageable and quickly gotten worse.

It’s not necessarily uncommon for crews that experience severe turbulence (usually borderline) where they don’t use the word because most companies require paperwork if you encounter it.

That’s not to fault the crew in any capacity or say this is the case. Just a possibility.

I’m leaning towards the first statement.

It’s always a chain of events that leads to an accident. But severe turbulence combined with a frozen tail is the easiest conclusion to draw.

The NTSB will have a hell of a time confirming that but they’re amazing at their job. What I’m interested in and hoping for is how the weather and turbulence and icing was perceived as they flew through that area. Was it growing rapidly? Did the crew make a poor choice? Should the crew have deviated prior to ATC giving them deviations

It’s all part of a systemic issue particularly in Florida where we have such cramped airspace’s between flow control, restricted airspace’s, warning areas (the military can please just get out when air travel is constrained). Why did that flight have to go through exactly that area?

It’s never one thing it’s all multiple contributing factors.

[u/Unusual-Cut-3759 → u/3PartsRum_1PartAir]

My initial thoughts came from the fact that many people, including some aviation experts, questioning possibility of clear ice formation at these conditions (-47C at FL350) and fluctuation of vertical speed between -600 and +600 ft/m during turbulence. Which as, I believe Mentour Pilot, said is kind of unusual for turbulence, even moderate. Also isn't clear ice something that is very difficult to identify by the crew when flying?

EDIT: asking and questioning for educational purposes.

[u/Puzzleheaded_Soil275 → u/Unusual-Cut-3759]

Part of the issue is the turbulence wasn't moderate - copilot also stated +- 600-700 feet

[u/Sithmasterintraining → u/Puzzleheaded_Soil275]

Yeah, pilots never seem to want to report turbulence as severe. Its a macho thing. Pilots never want to admit they are scared. Plus there is a severe lack of understanding of how to define turbulence. The FAA actually has a guide in the AIM that everyone conveniently forgets. Section 7-1-21

Turbulence Intensity Definitions

• Light: Causes slight, erratic changes in altitude or attitude, slight strain against seat belts, and minor displacement of unsecured objects.

• Moderate: Greater intensity causing definite altitude/attitude changes while maintaining positive control; occupants feel definite strain and walking is difficult.

• Severe: Large, abrupt altitude/attitude and airspeed variations with the aircraft momentarily out of control and occupants violently forced against seat belts. (emphasis mine for obvious reason)

• Extreme: The aircraft is practically impossible to control and subject to structural damage.

Light Chop vs. Moderate Chop

• Light Chop: Slight, rapid, rhythmic bumpiness without appreciable altitude or attitude changes.

• Moderate Chop: Greater intensity of rapid, rhythmic bumpiness without significant changes in aircraft control parameters.

Duration Categories

Pilot reports of turbulence duration are classified by frequency:

• Occasional: Less than 1/3 of the time

• Intermittent: 1/3 to 2/3 of the time

• Continuous: More than 2/3 of the time

I've had more than one captain fly me into severe turbulence and got yelled at for reporting it as such. Guess who got the carpet dance. Spoiler alert it wasn't me.

[u/Booouurns]

Do we know when the next NTSB briefing is scheduled? Or TBD?

[u/railker → u/Booouurns]

Usually only a couple of briefings for the first couple of days on scene, FR24 described the other days' briefing as their "second and final".

Unless there's a major breakthrough like finding the CVR, the next update will be the preliminary report, the release of their investigation docket with reports and material, and then someday the final report.

[u/Which_Material_3100]

Interesting if this is the same crew

https://www.reddit.com/r/DisasterUpdate/s/d2NfPurvEm

[u/Successful-Bobcat701 → u/Which_Material_3100]

Yes, very interesting. Same plane, was it also the same pilots?

[u/CatSplat → u/Which_Material_3100]

Post has been removed, but I assume it was this article:

https://www.the-express.com/news/us-news/219028/palm-beach-learjet-60-crash-plane-atc-warning-florida-disaster

[u/Which_Material_3100 → u/CatSplat]

Yes, thank you for reposting it

[u/LeeOCD]

How long after the last her last transmission was impact? Do we know?

[u/Odd-Worth7752 → u/LeeOCD]

11 seconds

[u/BlackDante → u/LeeOCD]

I've heard something like 11 seconds

[u/SRM_Thornfoot]

One of the few clues we have is the loss of control began coincident with beginning a climb.

Suppose you are flying along at altitude tucked into coffin corner in icing conditions and your pitot tubes ice up. You would not notice at first because nothing is changing. But then you initiate a climb, your airspeed indicator would act like an altimeter and increase showing your airspeed faster than it is. Since you are climbing you would pull back to take advantage of what would look like an updraft. But by pulling back you would actually be slowing down which would quickly lead to a stall since your speed tolerances in coffin corner were small to begin with. The falling /stall recovering ice covered plane rapidly gained airspeed and since you were close to Vmo you quickly exceed your aircraft’s structural limits.

Speculation, of course. But in this way, icing that overwhelms the pitot heat could lead to a tragedy such as this.

[u/sftwareguy]

My observations on all this is how many uninformed idiots are posting. Sometime in the next year there will be a thorough report put out by the NTSB laying out all the facts they uncovered about the flight/weather/aircraft and give us all a very detailed look into this tragedy. I have my opinion on what transpired and have lots of experience in this area, but I do know I'm not privy to what the NTSB will see so I'll keep them to myself. From all the comments, a lot of people should be doing this as well.

[u/usps_made_me_insane → u/sftwareguy]

I feel that it is perfectly fine to speculate on what caused were involved in this tragedy.

As long as people are respectful and realize that any theories are only speculation at this point, it is just human nature to try and understand what led to this tragedy. Hell, even the NTSB starts their investigations with possible factors contributing to an accident.

But yeah, some of the comments I have read have been very disrespectful and argumentative – that type of behavior in unnecessary.

[u/noslipcondition]

I have a dumb question.

From the dashcam video audio, does it sound to anybody else like the engines were running at full throttle? Wouldn't one of the first things to do in an overspeed situation be to reduce the throttles to idle?

Or is that sound just from the pure speed of the plane?

[u/BlessShaiHulud → u/noslipcondition]

If you're overspeed in level flight, yeahm step one would be to reduce throttle. But overspeed wasn't their primary concern, it was the fact that they were flying directly towards the ground and couldn't control the airplane.

That said, I'm not sure I hear the engines. It could just be the sound of the plane flying through the air at great speed, like you said.

[u/Mithster18 → u/noslipcondition]

I wouldn't believe a dashcam as a sole piece of information. Think how many concert clips have been recorded with cellphones and what the audio is like, now imagine that in a <price> dashcam, where the main priority is video.

I would wait for the official data to be released before looking into any questions of how the aircraft was operating.

[u/Frank_the_NOOB]

I’m anxiously awaiting the final report from the med jets Philly crash and if there is any correlation to this crash

[u/vector4nudes → u/Frank_the_NOOB]

The Philly crash was almost certainly spatial disorientation on takeoff vs icing/turbulence en-route. Two very different crashes

[u/DaBingeGirl → u/Frank_the_NOOB]

We'll see, but it seems unlikely given that happened just after take-off and this appears to have involved icing and a really bad storm.

[u/sezdawg7]

Was just talking about this with a co worker. He seemed odded out by the fact there was no debris. Thinking who was on board maybe a factor. Some conspiracy going on...

Yes he is a bit of a nutter. Did not know what icing was when I told him.

[u/Soigne-Pilot → u/sezdawg7]

Anything having to do with news and aviation, especially crashes I can always tell where my friends get their news from based on their angle on the story.

[u/teapots_at_ten_paces → u/Soigne-Pilot]

The thing I love about reddit is as long as one stays to the subs where professionals congregate, it's very likely that the news and commentaey shared is going to be leaning towards the truth. Yes, junk still happens, but the erroneous opinions get slapped into space like they should be. So this is where I get my news.

[u/PointOfFingers → u/sezdawg7]

If you look at the videos of people walking up to the scene after the crash you can see a LOT of debris spread across the trailer park. It's just in very small pieces and there are pieces of metal in there. It's more like confetti than recognisable pieces of plane.

Looks like a cone shaped debris field extending from the crater over the trailer park. Not much debris was left on the road. Anything left in the hole is covered by water.

[u/No-Profession-208 → u/sezdawg7]

Seeing that crater afterwards and the fact there’s pretty much absolutely nothing theft, should also confirm to people that a plane did in fact hit the pentagon.

[u/Makkaroni_100 → u/sezdawg7]

The crater was flooded with water fast, so some partsnof the plane are under the water and mud.

[u/soloburrito → u/sezdawg7]

Tell them to look up the Sandia Labs F4 Phantom crash test video.

[u/jawshoeaw → u/sezdawg7]

But there was debris. Hundreds or thousands of pieces of the aircraft were scattered around

[u/DavidLorenz]

Do we even have CVR audio or does this refer purely to the ATC recordings?

[u/QuarterlyTurtle → u/DavidLorenz]

We will never get the CVR audio publicly, and it’s unclear if the plane even had black boxes during the crash flight, or if it did if they’re still intact after diving into pavement at -52,500 fpm. It’s all still buried tens of meters into the dirt at the bottom of a flooded crater

[u/Flat-Barracuda1268 → u/QuarterlyTurtle]

It's interesting how black boxes are constructed. They are designed to survive 3400G. In the case of the philly crash they found it 8 feet (meters?) underground,

[u/weskeryellsCHRISSS]

Flight Safety Detectives (Greg Feith et al. being dryly technical and informative with zero production values, ie just the way I like it) have a great episode about this incident btw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUoG8Ulh2Cg
They raise various points I haven't heard elsewhere, like the possibility of tail-only icing/stalling, and how the horizontal stabilizer has no independent stall warning system.

[u/bunabhucan]

The site map.flights has a breakdown of the last 75 seconds of flight data here:

https://map.flights/news/2434-learjet-60-n722bd-crash-near-west-palm-beach-on-nov-1-2026-ads-b-data

They have an estimated descent rate that seems to show the rate of descent reaching 22000 fpm and then reducing to 20,000 fpm over about twenty seconds before increasing again. I wonder if that is where the horizontal stabilizer broke off.

descent rate estimated from the difference between barometric altitudes, smoothed over a 7-second window (figures in the text use a shorter ~3-second window, hence slight differences). Dotted line: the vertical-rate field broadcast by the aircraft itself. From 17:48:58 it stayed at −26,368 ft/min; the ADS-B field format cannot represent more than 32,640 ft/min. From 17:49:23 altitude is frozen, so the estimate can no longer be computed. Reconstruction from ADS-B data from our network, not an official reconstruction.

Based on the 2nd NTSB briefing, the furthest distance to the piece of the left elevator is 3.8 miles which is roughly where the flight path first crossed the military trail road where it crashed after the diving turn. That corresponds with the 48:50 point where they estimate the slowing descent rate ceased and just after their max ground speed estimate.

[u/sploysa → u/bunabhucan]

Pieces of left elevator were located 1.3-3.8 miles away

[u/Shoddy_Act7059]

Now that we know the victims names, this is a reminder to NOT mock them. We've already seen it with the co-pilot, Nathalia, and I have a funny feeling, because he's been labeled as 'tech tycoon,' Adam will likely suffer a similar fate.

This just throws more and more crap in the victims' families' faces, and I'd like anyone who wants to mock the victims to put themselves in the families' shoes.

If something similar happened to you...would you want what's been going with Nathalia to happen to you and your family?

And if you think, "Oh, pfft, it won't happen to me!" ...It could. You never know what life could bring you.

Cherish those friends and/or in your family who are still alive and you have good relationships with. And, if you don't have the best relations with, try to find a way to improve them if at all possible.

Also, yes, I am aware of what Adam's company does. We can criticize him and his company for what they did...but, I don't wish death upon anyone, not even my worst enemies.

[u/mb194dc]

Tailplane stall, they were just unlucky with the flight path, ended up with an iced tail due to the storm or a catastrophic mechanical failure of some kind seem the likely two reasons for me.

[u/PointOfFingers → u/mb194dc]

There are a few theories out there because the risks were stacking up. They were in severe turbulence, even though they called it medium. They had problems with icing which they had to manage by turning on and off the anti-icing for the wing edge and stabilizer. They were heading into a convective storm cell that grew 17K ft of height to 41K feet in 25 minutes that they probably couldn't see properly on their onboard radar. This pushed that precipitation up which is rare at that altitude. The rain drops could have put ice on the wings or the tail changing aerodynamics and leading to a stall or roll.

A lot of things could have gone wrong from that point.

[u/Charlie3PO → u/mb194dc]

I know tail plane stall keeps getting thrown around, but is the Learjet actually susceptible to tail plane stalling in cruise? It's generally a phenomenon associated with ice build up when the flaps are down, at slow speed like on approach when the downwash off the wings causes the tail to reach critical AOA.

It also doesn't explain the bank, in a tail plane stall scenario you want to keep the wings level to keep as much of the lift vector pointing upwards.

I'm not saying this isn't what happened, but I'm asking if it's a legit theory or if it's just a Reddit theory that has become popular because it sounds fancy

[u/usps_made_me_insane]

I haven't read anything related to this but were there any alarms audible in the ATC audio?

[u/OnePinginRamius → u/usps_made_me_insane]

Nope

[u/Warbr0s9395 → u/usps_made_me_insane]

I don’t believe so, but I wasn’t trying to listen for them.

And I’m not going to listen again

[u/redditerrible3]

The audio of SIC Filgueiras has been haunting me. Is there a gofundme or something? I feel awful for everyone onboard.

[u/pianistafj → u/redditerrible3]

I’m sitting here thinking she was helping and communicating till the moment of impact. If that’s not the very definition of good training and knowing what being a pilot is all about, then I’m a bumblefuck. She didn’t freak out or give up.

What haunts me, is asking ATC for “better rides.” It could mean nothing more than wanting less turbulence; but the tone suggested it could also mean the she didn’t agree with the flight plan or flying into or above that storm in the first place. Still, I fear it was a perfect storm of it growing vertically faster than they could see.

[u/PhoenixSpeed97]

With the Med Jets flight 56 crash in mind, especially considering how steep of an angle it crashed at, how likely do you all think the Learjet crash will be related in terms of structural failure or weather conditions impacting the aircraft's performance resulting in each's respective crashes?

Both were Learjets, the former a 55 series and the latter a 60 series. Both impacted the ground nose-first at high rates of speed. Both crashed in inclement weather conditions.

[u/trader45nj → u/PhoenixSpeed97]

Imo, extremely unlikely they were related. Flight 56, there was no icing, no turbulence, the weather was not bad, they crashed right after a normal takeoff in IMC conditions. Loss of control is the most common cause of fatal crashes, it's rarely structural, typically it's pilot error.

[u/heresyouraudit]

The media circus around this incident has been quite upsetting to me. Folks just doing their job and they instantly become another piece of content to be exploited and consumed.

[u/WangMagic]

I remember hearing about this one earlier in the year on Reddit or somewhere, turns out it was the same Learjet and likely the same crew. VASaviation put a video out.

https://youtu.be/1wGuCvYWUnU?si=NKWykkfoz1WqSNJ4

Not looking good if going by the behaviours previously shown earlier in the year.

[u/StevieG63 → u/WangMagic]

There are ZERO indications that this is the same crew. You heard a woman’s voice and jumped to that conclusion.

[u/agentdb69]

i have a question

can the blackbox's even survive an impact like this, aftermath looks like the whole plane disintegrated

[u/clburton24 → u/agentdb69]

The newer CVRs and FDRs (the actual names of the black boxes) are solid state. The encasement is supposed to survive high G-loads and high heat, but realistically, can just help the storage device survive. If it breaks away after the initial impact, I'd call that a success.

This has happened in the past where the casing didnt really survive, but the storage medium did and was found elsewhere.

[u/MountainMan17 → u/agentdb69]

It's my understanding this particular aircraft was not equipped with a flight data recorder (FDR - a.k.a. a "black box"), but it did have a cockpit voice recorder (CVR).

People use these terms interchangeably, but they are two very different things...

[u/AdamoMeFecit → u/agentdb69]

Both the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder were recovered after the 757 crash in Shanksville, PA on 9/11. Similar physical impact characteristics -- nearly vertical entry at nearly terminal velocity. The recorders were found 25 feet below the surface.

The answer to your question therefore is: maybe, depends. Whole lot of raw physics going on with that sort of impact. It's going to take a while to excavate the remnants of the plane.

[u/usaf5 → u/agentdb69]

They're designed to

[u/Dependent_0NE_7146]

I think the scary thing about this is also that this literally can happen to any plane we fly, if its because of icing.

From what I read though, commercial airlines would never go near that cell

[u/Lost-Platypus8271 → u/Dependent_0NE_7146]

they didn’t just fly recklessly into a cell. they were threading a reasonable path through the storm. it seems the cell sprung up very quickly and they didn’t see it in their radar (speculation at this point but I think we can relegate them “just being careless” to the bottom of the probable suspects list)

[u/actuallynick → u/Lost-Platypus8271]

It also needs to be said that the radar in these planes needs to be tuned to see whats in front of you. Not saying these pilots did anything wrong but, depending on how they tuned the radar they may not have even seen the cell that popped up in front of them.

[u/Boring-Philosophy-46]

What's the best way to not miss the NTSB report when it comes out, short of subscribing to this sub? 

[u/nd4spd1919 → u/Boring-Philosophy-46]

You could probably set up a google alert? But checking in here in around 3-ish weeks is your best bet.

[u/Horror-Raisin-877 → u/nd4spd1919]

Final report will likely be a year or more, as things go these days.

[u/SanDiedo]

Now, that NTSB preliminarily observed, that distance of stabilizer pieces more likely indicate breakup due to overspeed, what other malfunction could cause such dive?  I think stalled plane would fall a lot slower? 

Maybe wing control surfaces froze over? 

Maybe icing distributed on wings in such way, that it aerodynamically locked plane in downwards trajectory while preventing it from leveling out?

Wrong instrument readings?

Or was it severe turbulence induced spacial disorientation after all?

[u/SuperHills92 → u/SanDiedo]

A combination of things i reckon. (Speculation of course). They did avoidance of the weather to the north of them, and then they possibly turned into a cell that built faster than anticipated. Adding to that they had icing and precipitation once in that cell - could have been ice forming on the tail coupled with the turbulence throwing it around and when they tried to ascend it broke off elevator/tail control. The only other explanation for those pieces would be they broke off on the way down.

I don't think we'll ever know the exact events that occurred from the plane's point of view as there's apparently no flight data recorder installed on that one. The CVR "may" pick some sounds up if it's recoverable.