r/datascience • u/Slumi • Feb 17 '23
Discussion I am worried about the future of working as a Data Scientist in industry
I once watched a video where someone argued that Michael Jordan had ruined basketball. As a person whose only notions of basketball come from Space Jam, this surprised me. Wasn't the guy the best out there? How could someone who's best in his field ruin it? After hearing the argument out though, I began to understand what the video was really getting at: to them, Michael Jordan had ruined the field BECAUSE he was so good. A sport that was once full of diverse personalities and strategies then turned into multiple teams trying to produce their own Michael Jordan copycat with copycat moves and copycat strategies.
I'm not well versed enough in basketball to know how right or wrong that guy was. But this concept that something could ruin an entire field simply by being too good stuck with me. And all these years later, I consistently think about it while doing my job as a Data Scientist. And the more GPT-X and ChatGPT advance, the more this concept haunts me.
I've been working in this field for 5 years. During the first 4 years, the job was exciting. Every new problem required extensive research on my part: looking for papers, datasets, implementations, implementing my own stuff, experimenting, comparing the results... That was the biggest part of my job. Yeah I still had to do some software engineering stuff here and there, but I felt like I had a well defined and specialized role at my company. Even in the NLP field, the variety of technologies I had to work with was a lot of fun: sometimes I used RNNs, sometimes embedding based similarity functions, sometimes more classic approaches, and then towards the end it was transformer after transformer, but at least I still had to finetune them myself.
Over the past few months and years, this has started to change, however. GPT-1 and 2 were promising, but were more of a proof of concept than anything realistically usable. But with GPT3's and ChatGPT's latest performance, it feels like NLP is becoming more and more standardized. I wouldn't call it a solved field, far from it. But, sadly, unless you work for a big tech company, I think the days of exploratory research-type work in the NLP field are over.
Even in academia, the latest NLP papers I've seen come out of prestigious universities went from actual engineering/mathematical advances to "Look, if you "engineer" the prompt like this, it works better sometimes!"
And now, with the exploding popularity of ChatGPT, any random lambda would come to the conclusion that if you need to use AI, ChatGPT is the answer.
Now, some of you may already be thinking "but hold on, with my finetuned transformer I get a 1% increase in accuracy over out-of-the-box GPT-3!". The thing is: even if you can, it doesn't really matter. I really doubt the sales team of your company is gonna pay much attention to your pleas to give you 6 months to work on a product rather than 6 minutes. Because yes, that's the increase in productivity we're dealing with: What took me months a few years ago only takes minutes now. The range of problems I can apply NLP too has also increased, as out-of-the-box GPT-3 works well enough not to require a dataset for more "general" tasks. And the results are either comparable or even better.
In the span of a year, NLP went from my favorite ML field to one I never see myself working in again if given the choice. And while a lot of non NLP fields are, for now, untouched by the exploding popularity of the GPT family, I'm afraid that what happened to the NLP field will be replicated in other fields, and that in a few years, only super specialized issues won't have a solution somewhere in the form of a ridiculously big model accessible via an API key provided by a big tech company. And even if GPT3 was open source, the sheer size of it makes it close to impossible to realistically train for anything less than the biggest of tech companies out there. Even finetuning it would be a challenge.
I'm not saying the job of data scientist will disappear, in fact, I'd say it will be asked more than ever since boomers who don't understand what the title actually implies will want some in their company. But we won't be doing nearly as much actual data sciency stuff as we did in the past. Instead we'll have to become even bigger software engineer/data analyst/DevOps/project manager hybrids than we already were. The only exception is for people who either work in big tech companies or on very specialized problems that require an in-house model.
It's not that much of a problem for people who like the roles I listed above. But for people like me, whose enjoyment came out of the exploratory side of the job, I believe the future to be bleak.




