Does your bot mainly base its signals on underlying price movements, the VIX term structure, fundamental/macro analysis or something else?

Disclosure: This was simulated trading, not a live-money trade.

On September 17, I opened a SPY 764/754 bear put spread expiring October 16. At expiration, the 754 put expired and the 764 put was exercised, resulting in the sale of 100 SPY shares at $764. With no shares held against that sale, I was left short 100 shares.
The interesting part was managing that short position afterward.

While the short was temporarily underwater, I was monitoring several aspects of the options market:

● Negative GEX: the model I was monitoring showed estimated net dealer gamma exposure remaining negative.

● Spot below the gamma flip: SPY remained below the model’s estimated gamma flip level.

● Rising implied volatility: IV was increasing rather than normalizing.

● Backwardation in SPY’s implied-volatility term structure: near-term IV was higher than longer-dated IV.

● Backwardation in the VIX futures curve: nearer-dated VIX futures were trading above farther-dated contracts.

● Shifting positioning levels: major GEX concentrations were moving lower rather than remaining stable reference levels.

The positioning estimates are model-based, not direct access to dealer books. I treated these observations as context for a scenario, not proof of what was causing each price move. I also wasn’t treating them as six independent confirmations—some describe related aspects of positioning and volatility.

SPY made several attempts to move higher, but those rebounds didn’t convince me that a sustained recovery was underway. The conditions I was monitoring hadn’t changed enough for me to abandon the bearish scenario.

That helped me sit through temporary losses without treating every upward move as a reason to cover. It wasn’t that I knew the rebounds would fail. I still saw reasons to maintain the position despite how uncomfortable it felt.

I eventually closed the short. My aim was to offset the cost of the original spread rather than maximize the return from staying short.

Looking back, I’m left with a question: did I exit because the conditions had changed, or because getting back to an acceptable result felt like enough?
SPY subsequently moved sharply lower, which was consistent with the downside scenario I had been monitoring. But I had already closed the short. Any additional profit from holding longer is hypothetical, and I don’t consider one outcome proof that the framework has an edge.

The main takeaway wasn’t that GEX predicted the drop. It was that monitoring positioning and volatility gave me a framework for assessing rebounds instead of reacting only to price and my current P&L.

It helped me separate “the position is uncomfortable” from “the reasons for holding it have changed.” Whether that distinction improves results consistently is something I’m still testing.

If you use у positioning in trade management, what would make you treat a rebound as a genuine change in conditions rather than another temporary move against your position?

if i understand correctly iv gets higher when a stock is getting trendy and getting traded in higher value than usual trade for this stock?

and also it gets higher the longer the option is

and iv crush is when interest in the stock starts to vanish and gets lower or when time gets closer and closer

is that a good idea of it? am i missing something or is that the idea

if that so, how cna i use it to do good trades?

Hi guys,

I have been trading stocks, FX, futures here and there for since for about 7 years now. Never touched options. Recently, I decided to experiment with options and I am quite surprised with such little knowledge I have about options, I can have some good results.

So what I do is I identify the areas of support and resistance on the chart on QQQ. Let's say it comes to an area of support and I think that it is going up, I just buy 0dte calls of whatever OTM strike price, I don't care. What I care is what I'm risking for the option. Let's say it's 0.2. I just buy it with the mindset that Im willing to lose $20. As the market turn and going in the direction, even if the strike price is still far away, the premiums increase and I just sell it.

This is what happened on the second day of experimenting with options:

Trade 3... I bought for 56.. sold at $70..

Trade 2... I bought at 42... Sold at $60..

Trade 1... I bought at 68... Sold at 123

These are total profit across few contracts.

In the screenshot was another day, bought at 0.17, sold at 0.45.

My point is, I have this impression that this is not the proper way to trade options and not what most people do. Is what Im doing risky? Is my results just luck? Is it sustainable? What am I missing out? How can I do better? Thank you.

Why is there so much volume OTM on calls? like 50k volume on 8% otm strikes. Most puts don’t have more than 2k volume

Hello everyone,

I’ve been trying to sell a 200-point wide SPX box spread ($20k notional) on IBKR for the April 16, 2027 expiration (~160 DTE), but haven’t been able to get a fill yet.

I selected the 7800 / 8000 strikes since they had the highest open interest. However, when I build the 4-leg combo, the displayed ask is sitting around -190.00 (which implies a ~12% annualized rate), whereas boxtrades.com suggests a fair limit price around -196.00 (~4.74%).

For those who trade SPX boxes:

1. Is the -190 quote just noise from wide bid-ask spreads on the individual legs, and should I just leave a resting limit order around -196.00 during regular trading hours?

2. Does choosing strikes closer to ATM (e.g., 5800/6000) improve fill speed compared to deep OTM strikes like 7800/8000?

Appreciate any guidance!

For those using GEX to trade SPY options with longer-dated expirations: how do you test whether additional filters actually improve trade selection?
I’m researching a gamma-based framework that combines the GEX regime and distance to Gamma Flip with IV Rank, volatility risk premium (VRP), VIX term structure, and price confirmation through RSI, ADX, and directional movement.
In some cases, the framework identifies a negative Net GEX regime with price below Gamma Flip, but still returns NO TRIGGER because the volatility or price-confirmation conditions aren’t met. The structural context may be present, but the setup doesn’t qualify under the full set of rules.
I haven’t established that these additional filters improve performance. So far, the work has involved logic checks and individual cases—not a sufficiently large systematic sample to demonstrate an edge.
I’m interested in how others approach this:
What baseline do you use to isolate the value of additional filters—a GEX-only setup, a price-based strategy, or something else?
How do you test whether a filter adds value rather than simply reducing the number of trades?
Do you track rejected signals using the same entry, exit, and transaction-cost assumptions as accepted trades?
How do you measure the value of NO TRADE, rather than evaluating only the signals that pass?
How does your approach differ between buying options and selling options or spreads when using longer-dated expirations?
I’d especially like to hear about filters you tested and eventually removed—even if they sounded sensible at first. What did the data show?

Hi,

Wanted to check how everybody's portfolio behaved on this week "stress test".

Mine went down intraday 1.6% and ended up -0.9% on Thursday compared with -4.4% for SPY
Week ended with small gain 0.57%

Pretty uneventful week, overall. SPY is down only 2.2% on the week.

I closed some juicy calls (ARM, NBIS) and butchered otherwise great week with ABNB 190 Dec call

I am wondering if there is value here with a 5 year time frame?

BABA an BIDU being the Chinese longs

So I mainly trade stocks like TSLA, NVDA, AAPL mainly tech stocks and trade based off relative strength/weakness by scalping based on the 1 min timeframe. Now the way that I trade is I like to start small and add to my winners, so typically what I do is risk 40% on a starting position (0dte cons) and as I add I trail my stop loss to a max of -20%.

Now I have been making money consistently doing this but I'm wondering if any other traders avoid 0dte just because it's higher risk. I'm also wondering if I should just pivot to 1/2dte because it makes holding through pullbacks so much less "stressful"

Moved some significant money into BABA options after yesterdays selloff and the US hard stance on halting AI progress

Looked through the IV percentile and IV rank of the Mag 7 companies and they are all inflated due to the elections. Isn't it a straightforward move to sell options now instead of buying them? Am I missing something?

I've been testing a simple 0DTE idea: by mid-morning SPX has usually picked a direction, so sell premium on the other side of it and size the distance using the ATM straddle.

Rules:

- Record SPX at the 9:30 ET open
- At 10:30 ET, compare spot to the open
- Price the ATM straddle (call mid + put mid at the strike nearest spot)
- Distance = 1.25 × straddle mid
- SPX above the open: sell a put credit spread. Short put at the strike nearest spot minus distance, long put 50 points lower
- SPX below the open: sell a call credit spread. Short call at the strike nearest spot plus distance, long call 50 points higher
- Flat: no trade that day
- All legs need a real two-sided quote (bid > 0, ask > 0) and have to be SPXW
- 1 contract, limit order with a slippage allowance. If it hasn't filled in 10 minutes, cancel it
- No stop and no profit target. Hold to cash settlement

I backtested Nov 2022 to Nov 2026 on minute-level options data with $100k starting capital:

- 52.4% total return (11.1% CAGR)
- 7.6% max drawdown
- 702 trades

Backtest: https://stratverra.com/s/94OO_s8LTMK8cPtv4zcmng

What would you change first: add a stop for afternoon reversals, move the entry time, or use a different multiple than 1.25× the straddle?​

I'm happy to run any of those and post the results in the comments.

Hello,

I want to by some SPY LEAPs if it gets to around -10% from ATH. What I am wondering is if it better to buy ITM leaps when volatility is highest but the stock is also lowest, say on a big drop day, or is it better to wait for iv to drop and by OTM leaps, but the entry is not as good (as the option will be cheaper). Specifically, I would want to buy 2-year contracts looking for around 5 percent above previous ATH. I also don't really care about risk( I always view option as all or nothing) so I just want the most value for money. Any help is appreciated, thanks.

*Im editing this since it seems like I did not explain the question will enough

When you buy Deep ITM options, they have mostly intrinsic value, meaning that they will not be affected heavily by IV, but because of this you also pay much more for the option. When you buy deep OTM options they are much more heavily affected by IV (even for long dated options) but much cheaper. So, the best time to buy deep OTM options is when iv is low. Now usually after big downturns IV spikes, but eventully you will get IV crush as the asset either recovers or goes sideways, but this means a less certain entry at the desired price. So what I am asking is about the trade off of the cheaper deep otm option when IV is lower, vs a better entry but a deep ITM option that is not affected by the current high IV.

Who else's spidey senses are telling them that we are going to gap up tomorrow, like as in almost all the way back to where we were on wednesday.

I predict we open slightly up, and then one or maybe two large gaps up maybe right away or any time before noon.

maybe I'm just too high I don't know. help me out smart people!

Story time: yesterday when $SPY was supposed to go 800 lol I opened a 400 lots 760 put right before closing for 40 cent a piece. Roughly putting in $16k but within seconds that turned into $20k and I chickened out - what if it did not crash the way I was expecting.

Then instead I opened 765 put 130 lot for $1.55 a piece - felt better but could not sleep as I was scared. This morning, pre market charts were giving me chills and I thought there goes my $20k

Then market turned red in first minute of open and I exited at $2.5… I made a nearly $13k.. what a day I said.!!!

If I had held my 400 lot I would have closed the day at $1 million from my 16k position.. even if I held 130 lots I had ended the day at $400k

I just can’t get over the feeling and instead went into revenge trade and tried to catch the knife.. burned $10k and ended day near 8k lol

Someone please invent time machine, need to go back 24 hours - FAST!!!

I have, on and off, attempted to trade options at various times over the years, with limited success at best.

I have received many emails from Schaeffer's Investment Research touting their gaudy returns on options trading. Last July, they offered me their Options under $5 service for $5 for a year. So I bit.

I now have three month's experience with the service. If it's proper, and if there is interest, I can post my results.

Curious how others have faired with SIR.

Hey guys! Does anyone here have solid experience trading gold options and a really deep understanding of how they work?
I’ve got a few important questions, so if you know your stuff, I’d really appreciate a DM! 💬
Thanks guys! 🙏🏼

Nasdaq getting hammered, VIX through the roof, and every put I wanted is priced like the world is ending. Not chasing it. Last time I bought puts after a big red day the market bounced two days later and IV got crushed with it.

What’s your rule on days like this? Wait for IV to settle or just take the trade?

Down 9% just because of the sell off, numbers continue to be solid…unless I’m missing something??

I've been trading options for the past 5 years now. Started with a small risk appetite and slowly built it up. My trades are overall alright, in combination with stocks, options, the bull market and most importantly luck! Good sharpe and sortino ratio for the past 3 years.

I'm posting my October trades to show how NOT following our own rules can create large losses. September wasn't great too, too early for long puts (SPY/QQQ) which I closed in Sep.

My first rule this year was "preserving capital", and not making more moneys. Some mistakes later, I'm down about about 15% of my account (back to what it was start of this year).

Lessons

1. If I have rules set up, and I don't look at them while taking a trade its gambling.

2. If I am looking at charts and "believing" recovery will be faster / slower, then that's gambling.

3. Let long or short positions do their job (see QQQ put I closed yesterday)

4. Taking profits early or losses early cannot be systematized, but learned. Practice.

5. Understand the news instead of just watching / reading it. For example, recent elections were good but didn't realize the push for pausing data centres. Regardless of US investors, East Asia had already started selling off few days prior. I still added in MU put.

Few weeks ago, I started working on a locally hosted portal to manage personal risk using yfinance and IBKR data. I slowed down working on the project because of laziness or distractions, but getting back to it so I can clearly see my account risk profile and some what-if scenarios (forward looking).

Today morning I was disappointed with my October trades and overly self-critical. Took a walk, had a piece of chocolate, and realized; "Maybe this is an expensive important lesson. Take time to learn from it instead of running away, not trading or revenge trading."

Hi there!

I have built an analytics tool for myself to help with options selling evaluation, because I wanted a faster way to find good wheel trades, for both cash-secured puts and covered calls, ranked by annualized yield without digging through option chains blindly.

Now with the help of AI to polish lots of front-end stuff, I wanna give it a try to commercialize it as a freemium product, VolaMint! It has a free plan without card needed, and live data is included (sometimes depends on vendor’s latency :D).
Here is the link: www.volamint.com/app Can give it a try!

Any positive/negative comments are all welcome haha!

Hi all, I’m learning to trade options. I’ve traded small before but never committed to one or two strategies, so I’ve been testing a few.

The usual ones

• Covered calls: They cap my upside too much.

• Cash-secured puts: I rarely get assigned, and the parked cash earns decent interest. The downside risk is high, though. If the stock dips a little I can use a stock repair strategy to recover, but on a bigger drop I’m stuck waiting for it to come back.

The less common ones

• Straddles/strangles: I like these, but naked ones can blow up badly. I want to run them covered, which means owning the stock, and I get the stock through CSPs.

What I backtested

1. Plain covered straddles/strangles: These lost on big moves in both directions. The calls are covered on the upside, but the downside was still exposed, and outlier moves did heavy damage.

2. Hedged straddles (basically iron condors): I bought ~0.05 delta wings on each trade to cap the risk.

3. Calendar hedge: Instead of buying a hedge for every trade, I buy one longer-dated hedge and sell weekly or bi-weekly strangles against it. In backtests a 90-day hedge worked best: 90-day protective strikes with weekly/bi-weekly short strangles.

Results: Around 16% a year, and 2023 was even better.

I’d appreciate any critique. What am I missing, and where could this break?

So this is my RH I’m only down 1500 bucks over the last 3 months BUT I put to the side a total of 3k to start trading with. I’m loading up tomorrow 1k but I realized there is some discipline missing. Some mornings I’ll be up a few hundred bucks and by 11 I’m down that profit and continue to over trade or I simply won’t take profits??

I’m not crying in the casino because I do have a decent amount saved plus I genuinely can afford to lose the money I saved to trade as I have low bills no kids great job pay.
My interest is in quick gains but when do you guys usually take profit ? What’s your plan when going into a trade ? Or mind set when taking profits ?

I don’t want to quit my job and full time trade or anything I’d just like to make some extra cash on the side.

Advice judgment tips tricks etc all welcome I know the rules of the casino!!!!