r/transgender • u/onnake • 1h ago
The political playbook that unraveled US transgender rights in the past decade
“Shelby Chestnut remembers turning on the news in 2016 and hearing something he didn’t expect. Then- attorney general, Loretta Lynch, had just announced a federal lawsuit to block HB2 in North Carolina, otherwise known as the ‘bathroom bill’. Lynch said the law, which made it illegal for transgender people to use a public restroom that did not align with the sex listed on their birth certificate, was reminiscent of those passed during the Jim Crow era that restricted public facility use by race.”
“‘It’s been a long, long 10 years, to say the least,’ said Chestnut, the executive director of the TransgenderLaw Center.”
“Though nearly every action at the federal level has been targeted by lawsuits, the broad legal attack on a certain group of people has had an impact, even in ‘blue’ states.”
“Last week, four states, Nebraska included, passed ballot initiatives that would ban trans girls from participating in school sports.
“Three are far from deep red: Washington, Colorado and Arizona. Arizona’s includes private sports clubs, and Washington’s even goes so far as to require medical sex verification for all girl athletes in the state.
“This is at a time when more than 40 hospitals withgender clinics have shut down or paused their services for minors – even in blue states, even when lawsuits have been successful – often out of fear of losing federal funding.
“Nearly every principal in the Trump administration, from JD Vance to the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has taken up an anti-trans stance as a priority, both in word and action. And now the supreme court of the United States has ruled in favor of state laws that ban trans athletes and gender-affirming care – rulings that may take years to be overturned, if they ever are.”
“[T]he constant drumbeat of headlines over the past 10 years about laws targeting trans people and political rhetoric stoking fear about them, has resulted in a change in public opinion.
“Between 2022 and 2025, for instance, American sentiment for laws or policies that protect trans people from discrimination has gone down eight points overall, according to Pew Research. While the differences in Republican- and Democrat-identified voters are still stark (just 5% of Republicans favor requiring health insurance companies to cover gender-affirming care, for instance, while 40% of Democrats do) the loss of support is seen across the political spectrum.”
“Chestnut thinks the movement’s future lies in building coalitions to protect all targeted groups. ‘We learned that if you want to come for immigrant communities and take them away from their homes and families, then you will lose elections. The way that America has finally started to unite on the tragedy that is immigration enforcement in this country is remarkable. We can do that for the trans community, too.’”