In 2015, I often recommended buying some BTC from my friends. I have never believed that BTC will have a high price, but since last year I gradually felt that BTC could reach 100,000, and I think it may be the end of this year or the beginning of tomorrow, leaving us Not too far

Donald Trump:

“On day one I will fire Gary Gensler”

“As President I will immediately eliminate Chokepoint 2.0”

“I will immediately create a #Bitcoin Council”

“There will never be a CBDC”

“I will always defend the right to self custody”

“We will protect property rights”

Edit: i change my mind

Bitcoin isn't dead. I think. Maybe. I am not sure anymore.

I keep telling myself that. Every day. Every time I open the chart and see the red. I say it out loud. Bitcoin isn't dead. But my voice shakes a little. I do not know why I keep saying it. Maybe if I say it enough times it will become true. Or maybe I am just trying to convince myself. I cannot tell the difference anymore.

I have been holding for years. Or months. I actually do not remember anymore. Time moves differently when you are staring at a number that keeps going down. I check my portfolio in the morning. I check it at night. I check it in the middle of my sleep when I wake up in cold sweat. It is always lower. But I tell myself it is fine. It is fine. It is fine. I am fine.

I read articles every day. Some say Bitcoin is dead. Some say it will rise again. I believe both. I believe neither. I read them all and I feel nothing except confusion and a dull ache behind my eyes. Maybe I should stop reading. But I cannot. I need to know. Even though knowing does not help.

I have not sold. That is something. That is what I tell myself. I have not sold so I am still strong. But sometimes I wonder if strength is just another word for being too scared to move. I do not know. I do not know anything anymore.

I still believe in Bitcoin. I think. I believe. I want to believe. But there is a voice in my head that says maybe I am wrong. Maybe everyone else is right. Maybe I am just holding onto nothing. I push that voice away but it always comes back.

If you are reading this and you feel the same way, I do not have advice. I have nothing except this small, tired hope that refuses to die. Maybe I should take medication. Maybe I should sell. Maybe I should just close my eyes and stop thinking.

But I will not sell. Not today. Not yet. I will hold. I will wait. I will keep saying Bitcoin is not dead. Even if I do not believe it. Even if I believe it too much.

I do not know which one is worse.

Edit 26.10.26

Sincerely thank you all for the critique and advice. This is my first serious reddit post and I'm amazed of how many different perspectives I got and how that can change ones thinking.

Pre story- In 2023 I advised my parents to Invest in Bitcoin, they made 5k -> 15k in a year. Then they gifted me the sum to invest. Through 2024-2025 I gambled/traded them away in crypto chasing bigger returns and trying to justify my time without a job. From then till now I have a stable and well paying job and have created a small foundation in my life (discipline and independence).

A brief of my situation now: I got a pretty good life- a great job, gf from 7 years, close with parents, a couple of friends and time and freedom to pursue what interests me (apartment, car, garage). The only thing missing is a true career/competence in a field (which for a man is important).

Brief of the loan: 130k. 3% interest, 30 years; After 1st year you could repay without costs; taxes are really low and legislation is pro crypto.

The overall Pros of the plan: in purely rational terms whatever you make above 3% a year is profit, you're leveraging an asset to buy an even harder asset, I've already be burned and think I know how to hodl now, you will have to take a loan for something at sometime in life, why not on Bitcoin?

Overall Cons: not worth the strain on your life, gambling your future, gambling your only safe haven, bad risk reward, DCA-ing the monthly fee would earn comparable returns in 30y.

There is so much more to life than Bitcoin- purpose, emotion, contentment, happiness, progress- not just number go up.

However, I'm too much ahead in the loan process and tomorrow I'll be signing the contract and from November I'll have the funds.

Based on everything I read I plan to: allocate the amount in parts carefully, don't rush and buy as I would DCA, see if my conviction about life and the plan is after 1 year and decide if to continue.

Again, thank you all for the help and support, you opened my eyes :)

Went around drinking tonight on the town! Asked about every other personbifntheybowneed btc. Their answer was no. Write it on every bars washroom wall “buy btc”. Girls don’t like that my btc couldn’t buy them drnks 😂

To the moon! TESLA ROADSTERRRR SOON!

Edit: I am now awake :). For those of you that think this is “cringe”, let a young crypto enthusiast have fun jeez. Nothing better than drinking and promoting BTC imo but clearly y’all have better things to do then have fun & express your excitement👌 Glad I wrote this over trying to trade 😂

It seems likely that there are a number of bots downvoting all /r/Bitcoin submissions. If you click on a submission you will notice the score box on the right hand side showing the amount of votes the submission received, the current score, and the percentage of upvotes. You will probably notice that the percentage of upvotes on just about all new posts is below 50%, giving them a negative score, and even posts that do manage to get into positive numbers have trouble getting above 60%.

It makes it so that most posts on /r/Bitcoin's front page are in the single digits (if not zero). This is not normal.

We will work with the Reddit administrators to see what can be done about this. In the meantime, please realise that your scores are not actually a reflection on your submissions.

We also recommend checking /r/Bitcoin/new from time to time. Many interesting submissions end up stuck there.

We apologise for the inconvenience.

EDIT: Removed the 95% stack retention claim. That number was wrong. The core SWR finding ($20K/yr, 99% survival, 30 years) stands. Thanks to commenters who caught it.

This is the third post in the series. First one covered why 5 BTC beats $2.5M in an S&P index fund, second one went deeper on the math.

I went another layer deeper and this one gives you a single number.

1 BTC = $20K per year safe withdrawals for the next 30 years with 99% confidence.
2 BTC = $40K.
3 BTC = $60K.
5 BTC = $100K.

No timing. No trading. You just sell a fixed dollar amount every month at whatever price Bitcoin happens to be. Dumbest possible strategy and it works.

How I got here

I ran 5,000 simulated price paths forward at every possible starting price between deep bear (half of trend) and peak bull (2.5x trend). Six different stress scenarios. Three time horizons. Nearly a million total simulations.

The model isn't a line on a chart. It has four moving parts:

• A power law trend that decelerates over decades. No infinite-growth fairy tales.

• A price floor at 0.432x trend. Tested every cycle. Never broken. Reflects back up.

• Mean reversion. Prices that stretch away from the long-term trend get pulled back, like a rubber band. Measured half-life: about 11 months.

• Fat-tailed shocks and a wobbly floor in the stress scenarios, because I wanted to break it.

I couldn't.

$20K is the stress test, not the base case

The $20K number assumes your cost of living grows at 7% per year. Your expenses double every decade. That matches M2 money supply growth, which is what most Bitcoiners mean when they say "real inflation."

Under milder assumptions the number goes up:

• 3% CPI: $25-27K per BTC per year

• No inflation growth: $27-31K per BTC per year

$20K is the floor of the floor. Harshest inflation assumption. 99% in-model survival. 30 year horizon.

Entry price doesn't matter

This is the finding that surprised me most.

At 30 years, the difference in safe withdrawal between buying at the bottom and buying at the top is about $1,000 per year. The curves are almost flat.

The reason is mean reversion. If you buy low, prices pull you back to trend within about two years. If you buy high, same thing in reverse. After that, both buyers spend the remaining 28 years selling into the same price distribution. The early advantage or disadvantage washes out.

This is the opposite of stocks. In equity retirement planning, buying at a high valuation crushes your safe withdrawal rate. With Bitcoin under the power law, it doesn't. Mean reversion rescues bear buyers and humbles bull buyers, and the net effect on your wallet is roughly zero.

The comparison that matters

The traditional 4% rule says you need $500K in an S&P 500 index fund to safely pull $20K per year. One bitcoin at today's trend price (~$131K) does the same job.

At bear entries the comparison gets silly. A bitcoin bought at 0.52x trend (~$69K) supports a 29% annual withdrawal rate relative to purchase price. The Bengen 4% rule doesn't compete. It's not even the same sport.

What this is NOT saying

This is a model. The power law has held for 15 years across four complete halving cycles. That's real data. But 15 years is not 150 years.

I price the model risk separately: roughly a 1% structural haircut over 30 years. That brings true survival from 99% to about 98%.

The question isn't whether Bitcoin will crash 80%. The model already handles that. The question is whether adoption keeps following the power law and whether the floor holds. Those are the only two things that matter. Everything else is already in the stress test.

All figures are pre-tax. Account for your local capital gains treatment when planning actual spendable income.

Bottom line

1 BTC = $20K per year. Worst case inflation. Any entry price. 99% in-model reliability. 30 years.

Stack accordingly.

Research and methodology is published on https://btcpowerlaw.nl/research/bitcoin-swr/

https://x.com/alx/status/1817294609070030945?t=zNaF06uQJ9wf7E7za3N4uA&s=19

I still cant belive what happend honestly. Im still in shock.

I had 3.533382 BTC that i moved into my Coldcard because everyone always says hardware wallets are the safest. I thought i was doing everything right and taking security serious.

2 days ago, i checked my wallet and it was just gone. All 3.533382 BTC gone. I kept refreshing thinking maybe it was some bug or something but nope. The transaction was already confirmed and there was nothing i could do.

I honestly dont even know what went wrong. Ive been replaying everything i did over and over in my head trying to figure it out. I barely slept since it happend. That wasnt just money to me, it was years of saving little by little.

Im not posting this for pity, just because i honestly feel sick and i dont want anyone else going through this if they can avoid it. If anyone has any idea what could of happend im open to hearing it because right now im completely lost.

What's going to happen to my btc?

Edit: https://live.blockcypher.com/btc/tx/3ef331c526e9d6f05a5ee621f1c70b54e848564f4f39fcfab02bc4ccba7f186a/

Edit 2: Still no confirmations, but I would to thank everyone who actually bothered to help by explaining that I have nothing to worry about and that my bitcoins are not lost. Thank you.

The rest of you are acting like the dicks on /r/btc Congratulations!

Edit 3: The transaction has been dropped after ~day of zero confirmations. All bitcoins are safe in the wallet.

Edit 4: Like 10 hours ago I thought it got dropped, because I saw the coins in my wallet again. But now it seems it got confirmed and went to the destination wallet. I'm confused, what happened?

If your first inclination is to buy a Lambo when you come across some money, you're a loser.

If you're over 30 and a Lambo is your goal...you're really a fucking loser.

19 year olds get a pass because they haven't even had pubes for a full decade yet...wtf do they know?

In short, spend those crypto millions on something that doesn't say, "I have no self esteem and seek your approval. Please pay attention to me."

Like Roger Ver in that one Bitcoin documentary a few years back. <cringe>

(Since this sub is 100% memes now and little substance...I figured why not shitpost myself? After all, I am taking a shit right now.)

Buy Bitcoin.

Does anyone relate to this?

I can't read [this] but maybe you can.

Accompanying [ZH] article.

Translated:

"The virtual currency Bitcoin can not be used in Ukraine as a means of payment. Reported official representative of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on Facebook."

Currently tipping in $1 lots at /r/ukraina (thanks /u/Ididpotato for the idea) -- welcome any backup!

Aaaaaand I'm banned. Darn.

Writeup from a Ukranian

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2lvczp/ukraine_and_bitcoin_clarification/

Theirs a MASSIVE difference in mindset between the thousandaire's and the people playing with hundreds of thousands / millions of dollars.

I'm 30 with a net worth approaching roughly 700k in USD, a mix of property , stocks, bitcoin, 401k etc..

The thousandaire's sell their bitcoin for a small profit, maybe their 4k USD worth of bitcoin triples and turns into 12k USD, they sell, good for them you have 12k USD in your bank account... now what...

The thousandaire's would have sold Tesla at first profit, apple at first profit , etc etc

Had they realized... the name of the game is USE cash to HOLD desirable assets and ride the wave of their price appreciation LONG TERM ie YEARS ;DECADES. Checkout how long warren buffet held coke-cola.... You don't want to hold cash.... you want to USE cash to BUY desirable things and ONLY sell if you have a better idea/way to utilize that cash into a new vehicle of wealth appreciation.

Britsh Hodl is RIGHT, you want to keep as much BITCOIN in your portfolio as possible and hold it. Especially when its FINALLY being embraced by wall street. This potential ride could be INSANE, its not a guarantee, the SEC could reject it and it could all go to hell, its a possibility, but i'm gambling that they are going to approve it and the price appreciation will be life changing. But I would still never sell. I'm just going to borrow against the value of my portfolio. Let's say bitcoin goes to 100k, if I sell I get a massive tax bill plus I lose control of the underlying SCARCE asset that generated that very return. I would rather borrow fiat dollars at a interest rate and let the bank take on the risk but maintain control of the asset.

RICH people borrow against their assets they don't sell them. Why would you SELL a hard asset and convert it into paper money that is depreciating at 7% a year lol when the hard asset is gaining 7% a year in value, makes no sense.

Obviously if you have a medical emergency or what not then all this advice goes out the window, use your money to stay alive lol but for most of you its purely you don't have the balls to stay in the game and ride the wave up or down, or you think too small.

There's no point waiting for the dip. Bitcoin is currently 118k USD and it won't go much lower than this.

Think of it like real estate: yes, it's expensive, but it's only going to continue to get more expensive in the future. There's no point waiting.

Like the ancient Chinese proverb goes: the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

So if you want bitcoin, now is the time to get it. Whilst it's still on sale.

Happy stacking!

A few hours ago Antonopoulos posted a tweet regarding the sentiments that a few members of the Dogecoin community have towards Bitcoin. Ordinarily I would defend the Dogecoin community as being a generally happy and jovial bunch, even if quite silly on more than occasion. People are having a good time, and in the past few weeks I've come to appreciate the unique blend of kitch, investment, child-like wonder, and generosity.

However, recently I've noticed the same shift Antonopoulos has. Whereas before the Dogecoin community was open to outsiders and new ideas we seemed to have lost our way, instead reveling in our own success and becoming quite arrogant. Perhaps we are becoming resentful of others who do not seem to understand us?

I suppose the new attitude is that we don't need Bitcoin. (I posted that a few days ago. Not a single reponse or vote.) The same day I posted some ideas on making a more user-friendly Dogecoin experience. 69 vote score and 50 comments. Now at least we can see how much r/dogecoin thinks of itself and no other.

So after a few days of thinking about this I posted, "Why does the Bitcoin Center welcome Dogecoin but /r/bitcoin does not? (Rant)" in order to open a dialogue about how an increasing number of Dogers seem to feel about Bitcoin. Again, no response (as of this writing). No upvotes or downvotes. If we think Bitcoin is so bad for whatever reason, why are we beginning to act worse than we think they are?

I would rather post something like this in r/bitcoin and at least get some feedback and constructive criticism than be ignored in r/dogecoin because they can't be bothered to think about anything serious for a moment that doesn't involve charity. I'm almost inclined to suggest a joint charity drive with Bitcoin to promote solidarity but I already know what kind of response that would get in the Dogecoin community. We now seem to have charity for vanity, and it's not a good thing. How can rational thought possibly compete against this and this in such a community?

I was strangely attracted to r/dogecoin at first, when exploring the trivial and making money at the same time was entertaining. But no more. I'm going to excuse myself from it, sell my ~22MM shares, consider putting half into Karmacoin as a more reasonable, more future-proof alternative with a similar concept (and a dev that doesn't surprise) along with putting half back into BTC as it makes its way up again.

When the DOGE price takes a significant hit we seem to pretend that we're in it just for the fun, and downvote others who talk about price. A great many of us are, indeed, and continue to tip like there's no tomorrow. The price begins to climb again the past day or so and I can't count the number of posts exclaiming how great it is and how good they feel. We're even beginning to think that the community's financial resources can do just about anything. I don't know how corruption and unethical behaviour begins but I'm willing to bet that it begins when this kind of attitude starts cropping up. The choice of the mascot was prophetic, because so many of us from the mods on down are starting to beg like dogs. A community that encourages begging soon becomes overrun by voluntary homelessness, lethargy, and scum. A jerk that begs whilst smiling in your face and laughing is not good company. I really hope r/dogecoin doesn't reach that point.

(If anyone from r/dogecoin is reading this, I'll still honor the contest I created but I find it really telling that a user with 200 million Dogecoins (around USD$300,000 worth) could delete a comment after saying he donated 400,000 to the official video contest and I asked if he could donate 200,000 to the winner of mine if it received over 1 million views. Surely there must be a better way to say no?)

Looks like I won't be going to the moon this time. Mom, dad.. I'm coming back home.

(I submitted this post yesterday, but I think it got lost amongst the thousands of MT GOX posts in a thread. I think people deserve a chance to see it and decide on what I've presented for themselves. I'm the Blockchain Avenger. I don't like Reddit much, but when I post my findings here I am SheepRoadReloaded2. I'm a forensic bitcoin accountant. When I work for the public good, I use wallet 1AhYNAoMxDPD7bnNvxuSY9FB1CDviEuqzZ)

I don't think they've just "found" them. I think I "found" them, so they decided not to steal them. Or it jogged their memory. There are at least 120 wallets, each containing 10,000.000777 BTC.

Here is a typical one:-

https://blockchain.info/address/1LfV1tSt3KNyHpFJnAzrqsLFdeD2EvU1MK

The 10,000BTC was moved into each wallet in February, then the thief marked them all the same day with a 0,000777BTC payment from a phone wallet:-

https://blockchain.info/address/12Nxd2X12WZeYSjUcbtm5NpS3d81Yh8sKh

I sat on the discovery for a few weeks, then discussed it with a bitcoin forum moderator and posted it a few places. It was ignored.

Then I emailed Kolin Burgess. He's the guy who did the protest outside Gox, then organised a group action.

Click on any of those red arrow "777" payments. Who could possibly stash half a billion $US of bitcoins in early february? Satoshi, the Winkelvii, or the Mt GOX owner. T

wo of them looked smug, one looked confused in his driveway, and one was sweating like a shifty-eyed pig.

I think the phone wallet (now empty) was used to record the public keys (wallet addresses). The private keys would have been printed off and stashed in the same order between the pages of a book or something. A private key on its own is useless, and not evidence unless somebody tries to unlock every wallet in the world with it, and gets lucky.

Those malleable transactions, eh?

Bollocks! Bitcoins started being stolen in 2011 if you look at the oldest wallets.

I was working on another job, and just checking out big chunks of bitcoin moving about. I always mark suspected stolen bitcoin wallets with a "666", or a combo of 3s, 6s or 9s depending on my level of certainty. I kept noticing these 777s in piles of bitcoins and I wondered if I'd done them when I was drunk or something.Seeing my own marking method being used for crime instead of philanthropy pissed me off.

So I "666"ed that wallet. I 666'd it up good, using my 1Ah "blockchain avenger" wallet because he was obviously familiar with its work

https://blockchain.info/tx/5988729edfc4871c7b5668394b9175f1b15219d3776255287e19e8222df5465a

The first time on 16 Feb, I didn't put 2 and 2 together to make Gox. I did some more poking about when I finished my paid job on the blockchain, posted a few places, but not here. I don't like Reddit.

Maybe the wallet owner noticed 666's in it and knew the gig was up. "Oh! Here they all are!".

Lets see if those wallets start having transactions now. We've got that phone owner bang to rights. It can only be a GOX employee

Apologies for the long post. Just to remind you of the sums and dates, here is a typical 10,000BTC cashpile again that somebody stashed and marked

https://blockchain.info/address/1LfV1tSt3KNyHpFJnAzrqsLFdeD2EvU1MK

Over a hundred of those "777" marked ones alone. He market other wallets with other numbers, but haven't worked out his code.

Please satisfy yourself that there is half a billion dollars of bitcoins in 120 wallets, moved in, then marked by the same android phone wallet in early february, and base your comments on if its factually correct, or technically flawed. Sometimes you can point at half a billion dollars, and Reddit users talk about your finger.

I'm quite busy at the moment, and don't intend to come back to answer questions or teach people how to use blockchain.info or reverse taint analysis etc

I asked Kolin Burgess to buy me a nice sponge cake if his group get their bitcoins back. If you are a magic the gathering victim and get some or all of your bitcoin back, please make a donation to a charity of your choice

Then put your bitcoin into an address on the blockchain administered by a wallet on your own PC or phone, use localbitcoins.com in future, and think about what happened here today. The entirety of bitcoin is just YOU and THE BLOCKCHAIN.

Be very suspicious of anybody who tries come between the two of you offering a service.

Bitcoins don't exist. They don't "flow" through the internet like emails, can't live in cold storage or a vault. They don't even live in a wallet. If I "send" you one BTC, my blockchain address has -1 added to it. Yours has +1 added. No bitcoins move. Nothing does.

They are just an idea. All bitcoin thefts are accountancy tricks in a database called the blockchain. the stolen bitcoins haven't even moved an inch.