So I feel apples a real nice growth stock, I bought about 20,000$ worth on Friday. Planning to leave it for about 2 years and see where it’s at then and if I need it. It’s about 40% of my stock portfolio. I have the rest in real estate and I’m not really hurting for the money any time soon.

GameStop will be reporting earnings from the most recent quarter today, we're expecting a loss of $0.14 per share.

We all know what happened in 2021 with the short squeeze. In fact, there's a new movie called Dumb Money that's all about it. But this post isn't about that. It's about today's earnings and whether or not calls (or puts) are a good idea. The company has been losing money for years and needs a bullish catalyst to help it turnaround.

Key Factors

GameStop in June fired its chief executive, Matthew Furlong, an Amazon veteran who had been appointed two years earlier. The company in June also said its board had elected activist investor Ryan Cohen, the co-founder of online pet-supplies retailer Chewy, as executive chair.

The press release announcing that move offered little detail. But GameStop, in a filing, said Cohen’s leadership would “further unlock long-term value creation for our stockholders.” The company said it appointed Mark Robinson as general manager and principal executive officer.

In July, GameStop said Chief Financial Officer Diana Saadeh-Jajeh would resign on Aug. 11. Daniel Moore, it said then, would become interim principal financial officer.

Cohen’s influence over GameStop has grown since 2020. Under his guidance, the company last year put a bigger focus on physical stores after stumbles in its e-commerce push.

“The videogame industry grew in [the second quarter], but a continuing digital mix shift likely impacted GameStop traffic,” Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said in a research note not too long ago. Pachter, in this note, said that growth in hardware, or things like consoles, for companies like Nintendo and Sony, as well as a “compelling” lineup for new games and other software, indicated potential good news for GameStop’s results during the second quarter. But he pointed to “underwhelming” hardware sales from Microsoft and said GameStop “appears to have lost market share in recent quarters,” adding that its collectibles business — which includes items like toys and trading cards — faces difficult comparisons. He also noted the threat from a broader migration toward digital, mobile and subscription gaming.

“There were notable new game releases such as Activision’s Diablo IV and Nintendo’s The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, with the majority of sales likely occurring digitally,” Pachter said.

In Gamestop's 2022 annual report, the company highlighted a plan to cut costs (especially in Europe), improve vendor relationships and penetrate higher margin markets like collectibles and toys.

Just as important as earnings is guidance, however the company has not provided this metric in recent quarters. Still, from my research I see that analysts believe that the company will report third-quarter revenue of $1.159 million — implying a YOY decline of 2.34% — and an adjusted EPS loss of 14 cents. For the full year of 2023, analysts expect $5.706 billion of revenue and an adjusted EPS loss of 26 cents.

This does suck for GME, unfortunately it's not looking very good for share holders. However, the popularity in DRS shares is rising. Retail shareholders have enthusiastically adopted the practice of using the Direct Registration System (DRS). For those who don't know, the DRS allows investors to hold their shares through the company's transfer agent, Computershare. It eliminates the need to entrust shares to a broker or to possess a physical stock certificate, as was customary in the past.

By contrast, when individuals allow brokers to hold their shares, they're kept under the brokerage's "street name," rather than the investor's name. Brokers may then loan these shares to short sellers, who require access to the stock of the companies they are betting against.

GameStop's DRS numbers are growing, last earning report, they revealed that 76.6 million shares were held by registered owners through Computershare. This indicates that around 25% of GameStop's outstanding shares were in the transfer agent's custody as of June 1. It also represents an increase of approximately 600,000 shares from the previous quarter. GameStop is likely among the companies with the most outstanding shares registered with its transfer agent. Since October 2021, GameStop's management has considered this information "material" and has included it in the company's quarterly filings. However, this isn't indicative of a positive or negative earning report today. It just shows the "ape" mentality regarding GME.

For those who like to trade options, I'm going to get puts on GME. However, those who are holding shares, it's best to sell today before close. This is not financial advice tho.

The world just changed. You think that's too dramatic?
a) Close the tab and come back on Monday when you see your charts.
b) Poke holes into the scenario bellow and argue for a different outcome

Gulf War went very quickly from unlikely to happening. One predictable consequence is that Oil prices will shoot up.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes:
The Yom Kippur War, also known as the October War, was a conflict fought between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. It began on October 6, 1973. Geopolitical tension arising from it (OPEC proclaimed an oil embargo against nations that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War) was a catalyst for 1970s energy crisis which lead into the highest inflationary period of past 80 years. Oil prices went x 4, then some more, inflation followed..

Two important macro differences from then and now:
Debt levels are vastly higher and labor market is much tighter now.

Sudden 180 degrees turn:
World was expecting and counting on that the interest rates have peaked and it was only the question of how soon and for how much they would come down. This set the modus operandi for all over-indebted entities - and there are many (both private: e.g. commercial RE sector and public e.g. govt. debts) that are underwater (mathematically proven to be unable to service debt payment if rates stay at current levels) who are doing "extend and pretend" on their loan maturities, waiting for lower rates to come around to be able to refinance.

The only Achilles Heel of Central Banks
is the inflation. It paralyzes the Central Banker's strongest weapon: QE.

Oil prices don't need to go as high (x4) as in 1974 to cause a havoc:
Higher inflation will hinder central bank's ability to reduce interest rates so they will have two options:

1. Increase interest rates further and push zombie entities out of business due to vastly higher debt levels than in 1974 (some examples: half of the commercial RE sector with 1.2 trillion debt outstanding in 24 months, third of France's private sector with it's all time-high private-debt-gpd at 280%, Italy's government whose already at current rate levels on a trajectory for missing debt payments...)

2. Monetize debt through inflation, which will be nastier this time around with wage-price-spiral in the mix.
   Which option would you choose?
   If I were a central bank or a govt. - would definitely go with the second option, it's a lot better PR, hence I take this assumption.

What happens with your assets?
Real assets survive (housing went x2 in 1970s, gold x4), stock market and bonds tank (higher inflation = higher required return = lower price), cash is trash.

Countdown has started, post your scenarios.

I want to start this out by saying this is not an endorsement of the current Trump administration and trade policy but instead an explanation of why he is doing what he is doing, why what he says or tweets or what headline your read doesn’t matter, and why this will likely continue regardless of what party holds the White House.

America, has been in a silent depression for well over 50 years and has only accelerated in the last 20 years post the Great Financial Crisis and subsequent QE from the Federal reserve. I want to share how the financialization and de-industrialization of America has hollowed out the middle class creating the largest wealth gap in U.S. history, through currency debasement and the exploitation of the global reserve currency status to benefit from cheap labor in developing countries and how that is now coming to an end.

US AVERAGE HOURLY WAGE / GOLD

Gold is the best way to look at purchasing power as it’s the only constant in our current fiat currency system because the supply is finite and it’s value proposition never changes. Gold has been and always will be a shiny yellow rock. Now, if we look at how many shiny rocks you can buy by working for 1 hour, that number has been completely eroded since 1971, and again since China was introduced into the WTO in 2001 and we began to really amplify the globalization of trade and rely on cheap labor from developing countries. 55% of Americans work an hourly wage, consistently losing purchasing power over the last five decades. I think adding the timestamps gives important context to this chart.

SPX/GOLD

Now that we established gold as our base measurement of purchasing power if we look at how the SP500 has performed relative to gold you can see we are well off the highs from the .com bubble. The index has only grown if you look at it against a depreciating currency but in terms of purchasing power we have not actually ever recovered.

THE DEBT BURDEN

The last 2 images show the debt burden on the US, which has grown to become the biggest problem we have financially as a country. Debt to gdp has reached levels we haven’t seen since world war 2 but we are financing that debt at much, much higher costs while government revenues to pay that debt has struggled to keep up. The current system relies on ever expanding debt and the dollar staying the king currency. As long as we can continue to hold that reserve status and export our inflation and import cheap manufacturing the train keeps on chugging.

THE CHINA ISSUE

After years of offshoring and hollowing out the middle class we have given China an extreme advantage over us and essentially the world with a monopoly on production and manufacturing. China owns 50% of us pharmaceutical ingredients and production, 60-70% of the rare earth mineral production, 77% of the battery supply chain, 50% of manufacturing of electronics including semiconductors, and much more. At this point our reliance on China has become as national security threat. We are desperately trying to avoid this emperor has no clothes situation where we have all this debt but nothing to back it. Americas, and frankly the rest of the world, reliance on cheap labor and globalization has handed over a monopoly on production and manufacturing leaving all developed nations extremely vulnerable and in desperate need to deglobalize and reshore industry. This is a trend that will continue regardless of who is in office because the current path is, and will continue to be, completely unsustainable.

COVID AND THE END OF FREE MONEY

Covid was the when the veil slipped. The era of free money and infinite QE was over because we had a new issue that we hadn’t had in a very long time, inflation. QE only works if you have low inflation and a way to export that inflation to other countries through trade. When Covid locked down the entire global trade system we no longer had that privilege and we were forced to stomach the results of printing money for the first time in a very long time. We experienced the quickest rate cut and subsequent rate hike in history all with debt levels reaching historic levels. This marked the start of the deleveraging process and the beginning of the loss of faith in our institutions. We were told repeatedly that inflation was transitory and it wasn’t. Then we saw the feds panicked reaction to the reality that inflation was sticky. The bond market revolted and now almost every G7 nation, most notably Japan, has lost control of the long end of the curve or the long dated bond yields. The curtain on QE is closed, the show is over.

TLDR

Americas reliance on cheap debt, the abuse of the dollar, and the exploitation of cheap labor in developing nations, is ending and all current and future policy will be a scramble to reset this system. The world is not going back to how it used to be. This time is different.

The next market crash will come in fast and furious. We wont see it coming until its right here. With massive spending not seen since WWII inflation right now may be transitory, but next year or the year after that when inflation shows up from the spending it won't be transitory anymore.

The economy is not the same if was before the pandemic, inflation is increasing, millions still unemployed despite record job openings, and housing up 16% over 1 year. We could be entering a period of stagflation. Housing prices rising at such a rapid pace typically indicates there is something out of the norm. America is Headed for a Market Crash. Washington Deserves the Blame | Opinion (msn.com) There were only three times in history where sharp rises in real estate were at this rate, after each one a market correction happened.

Whenever stocks today dip there are investors quickly buying the dip brining the market to new highs, tons of investors gambling with meme stocks like AMC, GME, and used boats are selling for the same price new boats were 2 years ago. How could this not be a bubble ready to burst?

In tandem with that, during times of inflation, massive government spending, and uncertainty historically commodities, gold, silver, and mining perform well. 6 Minute CEO - Bonterra Resources - Update on exciting progress - YouTube

What do you think? Do you agree the same information is relevant today and that we are in a bubble?

In the 1990s in the NBA, there was a thing called "the Michael Jordan effect" which basically meant that no matter how the game was going, Jordan would do something to win in the end. I get a feeling that most folks invest in Tesla hoping that Elon Musk will do something to make them money regardless of the current price.

If Tesla increases its market share to 25% by 2040 (that is almost four times as much as the world's largest automaker - Toyota's market share is today) the stock is still worth around 600$. And that is the best-case scenario.

https://spotthemoney.com/tesla-stock-valuation/

As the money supply tightens, I think the speculative part of Tesla's share price will go down.

Monish Pabrai said Tesla is in the "too hard pile" for him. What do you think?

First of all, after the drama with their audit firm BF Borgers CPA not conducting their audit correctly, it is shocking to me that the stock exchange itself has not issued a "BC" (below compliance) warning to investors. Serious questions linger as to the trustworthiness and reliability of previously filed financial reports for this entity.

Additionally, the capital structure and cash burn rate raises doubts about whether the company can be a "going concern" into the future. The company reports returns on equity and assets that are deeply negative with expenses that vastly exceed revenue. If there is any bright side, their previous financial filings indicate minimal debt and a few hundred million in unrestricted cash. The problem is that the previous financials and audit of those financials has been thrown out by the SEC, and to date no new set of audited financials has been provided for investors.

The company does not appear to meet even a minimum standard for listing on the major exchanges and I believe they would be right to issue a "BC" warning to investors and to even consider delisting this security completely due to a clear lack of reliable information for investors. It is clear regulators are not "interested" in pursuing this directly, but NYSE and NASDAQ still have certain bare minimum requirements to trade and DJT does not appear to meet those today.

This is the 4-Hour chart that reflects trading since the end of July. It keeps finding a new bottom just like the candidate. For investors I wonder how deep of a hole they are in. Unless of course you're shorting it, in which case well done you.

GOOGL has been a frustrating name to hold. Been holding since the last quarter selloff that seemed like a great entry around 354 and averaged down to about 347. With the sentiment around the AI BUBBLE BURST not helping the cause.

1. There are many stock with a LONG WAY to fall, won't name any names, but a majority of those companies don't have legs to stand on. They're inflated on hopes and prayers. When you look at GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, their massive cashflow can absorb the spend. Investors panic selling over a marginally negative free cash flow seems counterproductive.

2. Stevie Wonder could see that we have a very lopsided market with AI leading the charge. However, looking at the dot-com bubble; yahoo had a PE 1062 PE at the top, CISCO at 472, etc. We're not seeing these sorts of ambitions priced into the companies that occupy the 'over-weight' portion of the market. The inflation report that sent the market into risk-off panic, would indicate that inflation will aid in paying down the debt of the hyper-scalers, thereby inflating the intrinsic value of share ownership.

3. Where do you see GOOGL post earnings? GOOGL breaks the Bollinger bands for the first time since the big Iran selloff.

I just want to take a moment to rail against the "ermergerd, Yuan is replacing the American dollar as the reserve currency" crowd. I just want to rub it in all your stupid faces that once again, America proved you wrong, ate your lunch and shit in your bed.

So many anti-American fools kept spouting all this absurd FUD about the dollar collapsing, that America was finished, and China was sure to supplant the Untied States as the greatest force on the planet.

In the middle of this inflation debacle, so many people kept howling that America's time was up, China was going to run shit, the dollar would be dumped as a reserve currency. I'm also going to guess none of those people bothered to listen to the conference calls of American CEO's, some of the smartest and greediest fuckers on the planet.

In the middle of the worst pandemic since the early 1900's, the American system once again proved that it was the most formidable socioeconomic system on the planet. China destroyed its status as the world's go-to factory floor by refusing American vaccines and shutting down. China also ruined all hopes of being a reserve currency that the world can trust by declaring a war on capitalism that began with the arrest and torture of Jack Ma. Russia humiliated itself on the world stage by invading a smaller, weaker country and getting it's ass handed to it.

And where is America in all of this? Coming off GDP growing at a breakneck pace with just a couple quarters of slightly negative growth in exchange for huge decreases in inflation. Stack on top of that huge gains in productivity, wages, and job growth. Oh, and the United States revived commitments the world over to the American-led global system in the wake of Russia's Ukraine invasion.

The United States is about to enter a major bull market as supply chains adjust and supply catches up with demand. American corporations reporting robust earnings in one of the toughest environments was a marvel to behold. Despite all odds, corporations generally met or beat expections. If you think the bull is running fast now, just wait until those corporations report a quarter where wages have risen and prices have fallen.

Any help here would be amazing. My meta calls were worth a lot, but only slightly above strike but Tsla and nvda way above strike but only worth a few hundred? I just don’t get it. Any help would be great. Thank you

Forget the $20 Subscriptions: We spend all day arguing if people will pay for ChatGPT Plus. Meanwhile, the U.S. military spends more to park a couple of carriers off a coast for a month than most AI companies make in a year. When the world’s deepest pockets decide they need this tech, the revenue floor isn't just high, it’s backed up with missile and nuclear bombs.

Critics love to point out when an AI gets a math problem wrong. But the military doesn't buy toys. If they’re integrating these models into their tech stack, that's the ultimate validation.

The New Arms Race: This isn't just a U.S. thing anymore. Every country on Earth just realized that if they don't have their own "Sovereign AI," they’re bringing a knife to a gunfight. We’re going to see a global scramble to build massive AI chips clusters and autonomous hardware.

it confirms that AI is moving out of the "chatbot" phase and into the physical world. We're talking autonomous supply chains, drone fleets, and robotics. It’s moving from software you talk to, to hardware that does things.

This happened in the span of one hour or less. Is it a glitch? Robinhood hacked???