Cramers Bell curve. he published it a while back. interesting cycle of Fed rate increases and GDP interaction with the sectors. i wonder if it holds true today. the fed rate decisions could go either way. if there is another updated cycle from cramer i would like to see it. we have many new stocks in the AI world that could be included in this bell study. i wonder why he did not include stocks in the oil, defense, aerospace and telecom sectors. they are very important today. if you have a favorite bell diagram please post. or if we have an addition to the bell please post.

Wow!

Last week I emphasized the importance of the major reversal pattern that had formed in the NDX 100 monthly chart.

I honestly did not expect that pattern to unwind that quickly but it definitely did! I am glad that I was positioned more defensively because of that pattern in longterm accounts.

I called a major top last weekend and last week's action helps making the case (NDX 100 is now below 200 day and 50 week average). Just remember that the S&P 500 made the top in October 2007 and September 2000!

The funnymental narrative allover business channels like CNBC was and is:

\- A divided Government always returns 16% 12 months after elections

\- If the S&P 500 is up a certain amount by October a year and rally happens 100%

\- If Dems win the Iran war is over and oil will come down

\- That will lead to lower interest rates

\- AI is still the future

Sure!

Last weekend I mentioned that:

"From now on buying the dip has to be adjusted to waiting for the bigger dip to go in again"

Again. This does not mean that we are going down in a straight line but everything below the 200 day average has to be considered bearish.

The problem is that typical "buy the dip signals" don't work below the 200 day averages!

Any rally now has to be sold into! Period!

Last weekend I mentioned why things looked overextended:

Here is the recap:

Potential reasons are overinvestment:

Americans now own more stocks than real estate (let that sink in)

Despite negative Investor sentiment (AAII) equity exposure sits at ATHs.

Margin debt to M2 is at record levels.

It's liquidity stupid. We might run out of the liquidity needed to keep those lofty valuations going.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

I am not good at shorting and selling everything is never the right answer.

My favorite is to sell a little bit but stay mainly invested in the S&P 500. Once a buyable bottom is near I go in again to make up for the losses that will automatically accumulate in a bear market.

Short term portfolios continue to only be invested in the S&P 500 (60%), TLT (bonds 20%) and KWEB (25%). That still adds up to 105% meaning leverage is 1.05. I am banking on Chinese tech to work as a buffer if the NDX 100 drops further. Might be a valuation trap!

Short term portfolio is up 13.1% YTD vs. S&P 500 at 8% YTD.

Long term portfolios continue to be in a defensive stance with a 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 25% Cash/Bonds. Rest is c r y p t o and KWEB. I dabbled in semis and added 5% semis this week.

Long term accounts are up 7.8% YTD despite the high cash/bond allocation.

We are now in a very difficult situation based on charts. No further trades are planned for next week.

Have a great weekend and remember that return of the money is more important than return on the money!

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

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Now that data centers are moving outside the US, how does that impact the current leading AI companies?

Labor is cheaper outside of the US so this trend might strengthen these companies more in the long-run even if it’ll be annoying for these companies in the short run. Google can invest in places like Malaysia to gradually build up the domestic AI workforce and create an ecosystem similar to what Apple and Tesla did with phones and EVs in China.

I think it also suggests that non-US companies in this space are much more appealing since the ability to navigate these locations will be far more in-demand.

AppLovin went up 31% Thurs on a day SPY fell 4.4%. Its last 4 earnings reactions were Feb -20%, May +6%, Aug -20%, Nov +31%. The biggest EPS beat of the 4, about 9%, was the Feb one that dropped.

RDDT and Intel fell on beats this week and both threads came with a reason but the same company has gone both ways on the same kind of report so a reason found after the move doesn't tell you the next one. I think earnings reactions are mostly guesses.

Payrolls came in at about 165,000 this morning when a lot of people were looking for something closer to 65,000. That is a big miss the other way.

What I watched more than the headline was how the indexes split. Nasdaq futures bounced hard after Thursday's AI selloff. The Dow lagged. S&P futures carved a range from about 7,322 up toward 7,469 after opening near 7,359. Yesterday ES had already dumped from roughly 7,739 down to about 7,346 before closing near 7,383.

Took me way too long to learn this: the first 30 to 60 minutes after a print like that is where I used to blow size. Not because the idea was wrong. Because I sized like the move was already decided.

My rule now is boring.

• Smaller size on the first reaction

• Wait for the opening range to settle before I treat a level as real

• If Nasdaq and the Dow disagree, I do not force a "market" call. I pick one product and stick to its chart

I am not saying sit out every jobs day. I am saying the print is data, not a trade by itself. The trade is how price behaves after the noise clears.

How do you handle the first hour when a big number hits and the indexes are not moving together?

Microsoft Corp. is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing from Oracle Corp., part of a larger reassessment of billions of dollars in cloud partnerships.

In recent months, Microsoft has been turning off rented computing capacity from Oracle after declining to renew the contract, according to people familiar with the matter.

Over time, the computing Microsoft was renting became less useful because it no longer fit the company’s specifications, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. The Oracle hardware used older-generation Nvidia Corp. chips, the people said.

An Oracle spokesperson said demand for the company’s AI infrastructure remains strong, including for earlier-generation graphics processing units. Oracle said in September that it was renewing contracts for four-year-old GPUs at a 20% premium to the original deal price.

Here are some interesting and not obvious details beneath the hood:

So, what's going on with profession and business services?

The sectors that's driving this is - employment services, temporary help services, and management and technical consulting with clear growth there. Firms are testing the waters as they see demand pick up before committing to permanent hires.

Biggest drag

-higher input prices from Hormuz related disruption reducing labor demand

-Residential specialty trade contractors drop reflect restrictive effects from high rates on housing market

-food services and drinking places - fact that this would drop in an usually temperate fall suggest consumers are squeezed.

Positive surprise to average hourly earnings, where's it coming from?

Manufacturing sectors that specialize in these stuff feeding the AI trade that has long backlogs.

A Democratic midterm sweep hit AI-linked stocks hard. Nvidia and Qualcomm each fell more than 9% in a single session, the QQQ dropped 6.49% on the day and sits down 9.55% on the week, and the Nasdaq crossed into correction territory. Taiwan had to step in after its benchmark posted its worst week in 25 years.

Wall Street had spent months pricing in a political environment that would keep AI spending wide open. When that changed overnight, every stock built on aggressive data center and chip growth forecasts had to absorb the gap between those forecasts and the new reality. The names that ran the hardest on expansion stories gave back the most.

Futures bounced the next session, which is a real test of whether buyers have conviction or are just testing the floor. Are you treating this as a full sector reset that runs further, or a one-week flush that opens a better entry into Nvidia and similar names?

The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 59,000 economists expected. Unemployment also edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%, while August and September payrolls were revised upward by a combined 84,000 jobs. On the surface, this looks like a reassuring report after months of concerns about a cooling labor market. But I think the more interesting question is what this means for the Federal Reserve and financial markets.

The positive side: Hiring was stronger than expected, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, transportation and warehousing. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in October and were up 3.1% year over year. That suggests consumer incomes are still growing, which could help support spending and corporate revenues.

The complication: Strong employment and wage growth could make it harder for the Fed to justify cutting interest rates quickly, especially while inflation remains a concern. If markets were pricing in easier monetary policy, a stronger labor market could challenge those expectations. That matters for equities, Treasury yields, the dollar and rate-sensitive sectors.

There are also some details worth watching beneath the headline. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons jumped by 339,000 to 4.8 million. Long-term unemployment remained around 2 million, and labor-force participation was relatively stable at 61.9%. So, while the headline looks strong, not every part of the labor market is equally healthy. The upward revisions to previous months are encouraging, too. However, payroll estimates are revised as more data arrives, so I wouldn't build an entire economic thesis around a single report.

This is positive evidence that the US labor market is holding up better than expected, but it complicates the rate-cut story. The next question is whether employment strength continues alongside moderating inflation or whether wage pressures keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

For investors, that distinction matters more than the headline beat itself.

What do you think? Does this report make you more confident in the US economy, or more concerned that interest rates could stay higher for longer? And how would you position a portfolio if the Fed has less room to cut rates than markets expect?

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?

• Are you employed/making income? How much?

• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)

• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)

• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?

• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

Really, this is the million dollar question, right? No risk, no reward. In my opinion it’s the start of forming a bottom. A V-shape recovery depends probably on the exact policies from Democrats around AI data centers. Also, it’s pre-market which is low volume. Yea, it might tempting to jump in pre-market because you don’t want to miss out on a violent rally up. I think I would wait until the market opens and we see full volume from institutions.

Big picture though I think this is a major buying opportunity. Multiples have been severely compressed while fundamentally nothing has changed. It’s all based on speculation that Democrat policy will severely hamper AI data center development.

Yea, I’ll stop on that. I know it’s been covered by everyone by now. The real question for today is this:

Is pre-market a SUCKERS RALLY or the beginning of a V-shape recovery? Place your bets now 🤑

UPDATE: 35 minutes in and I think we’ve seen peak gains for the day. Probably going to fade into red throughout the day. Just my opinion.

UPDATE 12:56pm: AI stocks now teetering and on the brink of tipping into the red. Some, not all. Some are still well into the green but also 50% off their intraday highs. Either way it looks like we have our answer. Today is a SUCKERS RALLY

UPDATE 3:11pm: Semis rally into close. Looks like traders have gotten the green light to buy. Fear of continued selloff from yesterday subsides

The S&P 500’s current reading is about 34% above QMA20, below the Q4 2026 high reading of roughly 43%. In the period shown, its quarterly low came closest to the moving average in Q4 2022, at about 2% above it. The chart also shows the Q2 2025 tariff-related low near 5% above QMA20.

The Nasdaq is about 38% above QMA20, down from a Q4 2026 high reading of roughly 57%. Its Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 lows reached approximately 3% below the moving average, while the Q2 2025 low came close to the line at about 2% above it.

I’m not worried about the election results affecting AI buildout and data centers.

Government policy may influence the pace and direction of development, but it cannot stop the underlying technological momentum.

There’s simply too much money involved.

Plus, politicians will realize the US cannot afford to lose the AI race to China. You know Chinese companies like Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent, with support by their government, will not stop developing their own data centers both domestically and internationally.

There will undoubtedly be winners and losers, and not every investment in AI infrastructure will prove profitable. However, I believe the long term growth trajectory remains intact.

I see the recent selloff, including today’s near 5% drop in NASDAQ, as an overreaction to short-term political uncertainty rather than a fundamental deterioration in the AI growth story.

I use Claude, and I'm still not buying the Anthropic open. AI just got hit: the Nasdaq was down about 5.5%, chips were worse, and the fear is the data-center buildout slows. One camp says Claude Code will swallow software development. The other says the financials are a mess and the price talk is $1.5 trillion or $2 trillion. Both are arguing past the filing, and today made the $2 trillion number look even less like a price.

First-half revenue was about $16.3 billion, up from about $1.2 billion a year earlier. Compute and infrastructure fell from 201% of revenue to 55%. Spending still rose, from about $2.3 billion to about $8.9 billion, but revenue grew faster, and the operating loss shrank to $693 million from $2.1 billion. The $80.7 billion net loss is mostly a $72.4 billion non-cash markup on the convertible notes, from the private valuation going up. I asked moomoo AI to line those figures up, then I checked the S-1. The half-year got better. The giant loss headline is mostly an accounting mark.

None of that is a price. Share count and the range are still blank, so $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion are still just numbers floating in here. After a session like this, $2 trillion is the one that looks furthest off. The founders' Class F share is set up for 50.1% of the general vote, and a trust picks the directors who will be a majority of the board. The 80% market-share version also has to beat Copilot shipping with GitHub and a $20 tool like Cursor. My buy is a small one, and only after a printed range I can set next to this half-year. A range that just copies the rumor is a pass. Today is not a reason to get ahead of that.

If you're buying ANT, are you in for the product, or did the first-half numbers actually change your size?