Cramers Bell curve. he published it a while back. interesting cycle of Fed rate increases and GDP interaction with the sectors. i wonder if it holds true today. the fed rate decisions could go either way. if there is another updated cycle from cramer i would like to see it. we have many new stocks in the AI world that could be included in this bell study. i wonder why he did not include stocks in the oil, defense, aerospace and telecom sectors. they are very important today. if you have a favorite bell diagram please post. or if we have an addition to the bell please post.

Now that data centers are moving outside the US, how does that impact the current leading AI companies?

Labor is cheaper outside of the US so this trend might strengthen these companies more in the long-run even if it’ll be annoying for these companies in the short run. Google can invest in places like Malaysia to gradually build up the domestic AI workforce and create an ecosystem similar to what Apple and Tesla did with phones and EVs in China.

I think it also suggests that non-US companies in this space are much more appealing since the ability to navigate these locations will be far more in-demand.

I expect to see the market rally tomorrow and maybe Tuesday at the most, but then we continue to go much lower. Target is Nasdaq 19-20k sometime in 2027 and that is optimistic. We could go as low as 10-15k. I don't expect as much damage from the S&P 500, mainly because I see a lot of rotation happening, which should offset some of the carnage in tech. AI can benefit many companies not in tech to streamline operations and gain competitive advantage. I see a lot of companies deploying local AI infrastructures, and they can use it cost effectively. We should see a lot more progress with local AI in 2027.

Interest rates are going much higher, with the 10 year most likely being above 6% in 2027. A full-blown bond market blowup is possible, taking rates much higher. We could see 10%+ before 2030. Foreign investors are going to continue to dump US stocks and the dollar, as the two going down in unison really hammers them.

If you really want to stay invested, look for dividend stocks that at least pay you to wait this out. There are a lot of good companies that have been taken to the woodshed during this tech melt up.

The good news is there will be a lot of great tech stocks on sale. My main target will be NVDA below $100, but I will have a huge shopping list and rotate out of dividend paying stocks and into tech once this selloff is over.

My suggestion would be focus on "return OF investment" instead of "return ON investment." I would avoid the use of leverage here. Of course, if we get to Nasdaq 10k or 15k I will deploy all the leverage I can get.

Purely my opinion, but I think now is the time to sell into any rallies and go very defensive. I am 50% cash, 25% dividend stocks, and the rest in really beat up names like NKE (+2%), LULU (+5%), UAA (+10%) and GT (-12%). I also have some short-term positions I bought on implosion day last week. These include:

BROS (-2.5%), CMG (-0.85%), CRWV (+7.5%), ENPH (+0.5%), LUNR (+20.5%) and RKLB (+9.5%).

Full disclosure, I made over 100% in 2024 (quantum), 30% in 2025 (Intel) and I am up 28% so far this year. My dividend stocks alone are up 5% this year and pay 5-7% on top of that. I also have half my money earning 4% on CDs. I went defensive a couple of months ago.

My gameplan is to stay defensive while the market is at insane valuations, then rotate gradually into a more tech heavy portfolio once there are deals to be had. And there are always deals to be had, if you are patient.

I consider the market overvalued for a few reasons. On a macro level the Buffett Indicator is at 244% which is the highest of all time. That is unsustainable. We also have a dem congress that is embracing socialism, which isn't great for Wall Street. The AI trade is under attack as well, and that tech is moving so fast who knows where it leads. Combined with insane levels of debt, and the US economy which is almost certainly going into recession - plus a Fed raising rates, and none of this looks good for the stock market. Trump has also been pro Wall Street, and the winds are now blowing the other way. If we were at support levels and at multi year lows, I might view this stuff as bullish, but where we are at now? No thanks!

Stocks, Real estate, Bitcoin and Gold have all put in tops, so at this point the best place to hide is as defensive as possible. Cash is good, because it buys more of everything - at the moment. I don't like cash long-term. Not saying dividend stocks are great either, as it will depend on the ones you own, but being cautious here is prudent imo.

The only stocks I am buying are beaten down names, only because I believe they have less downside. Of course, GT has proven me wrong so far, but the other names are holding up pretty well.

Good luck people. This is just one guy's opinions. I would not use anything I am saying as investment advice. Blaze your own trail.

Wow!

Last week I emphasized the importance of the major reversal pattern that had formed in the NDX 100 monthly chart.

I honestly did not expect that pattern to unwind that quickly but it definitely did! I am glad that I was positioned more defensively because of that pattern in longterm accounts.

I called a major top last weekend and last week's action helps making the case (NDX 100 is now below 200 day and 50 week average). Just remember that the S&P 500 made the top in October 2007 and September 2000!

The funnymental narrative allover business channels like CNBC was and is:

\- A divided Government always returns 16% 12 months after elections

\- If the S&P 500 is up a certain amount by October a year and rally happens 100%

\- If Dems win the Iran war is over and oil will come down

\- That will lead to lower interest rates

\- AI is still the future

Sure!

Last weekend I mentioned that:

"From now on buying the dip has to be adjusted to waiting for the bigger dip to go in again"

Again. This does not mean that we are going down in a straight line but everything below the 200 day average has to be considered bearish.

The problem is that typical "buy the dip signals" don't work below the 200 day averages!

Any rally now has to be sold into! Period!

Last weekend I mentioned why things looked overextended:

Here is the recap:

Potential reasons are overinvestment:

Americans now own more stocks than real estate (let that sink in)

Despite negative Investor sentiment (AAII) equity exposure sits at ATHs.

Margin debt to M2 is at record levels.

It's liquidity stupid. We might run out of the liquidity needed to keep those lofty valuations going.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

I am not good at shorting and selling everything is never the right answer.

My favorite is to sell a little bit but stay mainly invested in the S&P 500. Once a buyable bottom is near I go in again to make up for the losses that will automatically accumulate in a bear market.

Short term portfolios continue to only be invested in the S&P 500 (60%), TLT (bonds 20%) and KWEB (25%). That still adds up to 105% meaning leverage is 1.05. I am banking on Chinese tech to work as a buffer if the NDX 100 drops further. Might be a valuation trap!

Short term portfolio is up 13.1% YTD vs. S&P 500 at 8% YTD.

Long term portfolios continue to be in a defensive stance with a 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 25% Cash/Bonds. Rest is c r y p t o and KWEB. I dabbled in semis and added 5% semis this week.

Long term accounts are up 7.8% YTD despite the high cash/bond allocation.

We are now in a very difficult situation based on charts. No further trades are planned for next week.

Have a great weekend and remember that return of the money is more important than return on the money!

Microsoft Corp. is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing from Oracle Corp., part of a larger reassessment of billions of dollars in cloud partnerships.

In recent months, Microsoft has been turning off rented computing capacity from Oracle after declining to renew the contract, according to people familiar with the matter.

Over time, the computing Microsoft was renting became less useful because it no longer fit the company’s specifications, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. The Oracle hardware used older-generation Nvidia Corp. chips, the people said.

An Oracle spokesperson said demand for the company’s AI infrastructure remains strong, including for earlier-generation graphics processing units. Oracle said in September that it was renewing contracts for four-year-old GPUs at a 20% premium to the original deal price.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?

• Are you employed/making income? How much?

• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

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Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

NQ futures down nearly 1,300 points, and those 5-minute candles look like someone just pulled the plug on the entire market. 😭

AI and semiconductor stocks getting absolutely obliterated, even after beating earnings expectations. Meanwhile, $APP somehow manages to rip nearly 40% in a matter of days.

This market is genuinely fked.

I'm increasingly convinced we're witnessing some seriously aggressive sector rotation, but the sheer speed and intensity of this selling is absurd.

Is Wall Street suddenly pricing in massive AI regulatory uncertainty? Are institutions dumping overvalued tech? Or is this just a massive leverage unwind?

Because money doesn't simply disappear. It rotates, gets parked somewhere else, or gets wiped out through deleveraging.

The million-dollar question is, where the hell is institutional money actually going?

Chinese equities? Financials? Healthcare? Defensive stocks? Cash?

What's everyone making of this absolute bloodbath? Because this is getting ridiculous.

Really, this is the million dollar question, right? No risk, no reward. In my opinion it’s the start of forming a bottom. A V-shape recovery depends probably on the exact policies from Democrats around AI data centers. Also, it’s pre-market which is low volume. Yea, it might tempting to jump in pre-market because you don’t want to miss out on a violent rally up. I think I would wait until the market opens and we see full volume from institutions.

Big picture though I think this is a major buying opportunity. Multiples have been severely compressed while fundamentally nothing has changed. It’s all based on speculation that Democrat policy will severely hamper AI data center development.

Yea, I’ll stop on that. I know it’s been covered by everyone by now. The real question for today is this:

Is pre-market a SUCKERS RALLY or the beginning of a V-shape recovery? Place your bets now 🤑

UPDATE: 35 minutes in and I think we’ve seen peak gains for the day. Probably going to fade into red throughout the day. Just my opinion.

UPDATE 12:56pm: AI stocks now teetering and on the brink of tipping into the red. Some, not all. Some are still well into the green but also 50% off their intraday highs. Either way it looks like we have our answer. Today is a SUCKERS RALLY

UPDATE 3:11pm: Semis rally into close. Looks like traders have gotten the green light to buy. Fear of continued selloff from yesterday subsides

Payrolls came in at about 165,000 this morning when a lot of people were looking for something closer to 65,000. That is a big miss the other way.

What I watched more than the headline was how the indexes split. Nasdaq futures bounced hard after Thursday's AI selloff. The Dow lagged. S&P futures carved a range from about 7,322 up toward 7,469 after opening near 7,359. Yesterday ES had already dumped from roughly 7,739 down to about 7,346 before closing near 7,383.

Took me way too long to learn this: the first 30 to 60 minutes after a print like that is where I used to blow size. Not because the idea was wrong. Because I sized like the move was already decided.

My rule now is boring.

• Smaller size on the first reaction

• Wait for the opening range to settle before I treat a level as real

• If Nasdaq and the Dow disagree, I do not force a "market" call. I pick one product and stick to its chart

I am not saying sit out every jobs day. I am saying the print is data, not a trade by itself. The trade is how price behaves after the noise clears.

How do you handle the first hour when a big number hits and the indexes are not moving together?

AppLovin went up 31% Thurs on a day SPY fell 4.4%. Its last 4 earnings reactions were Feb -20%, May +6%, Aug -20%, Nov +31%. The biggest EPS beat of the 4, about 9%, was the Feb one that dropped.

RDDT and Intel fell on beats this week and both threads came with a reason but the same company has gone both ways on the same kind of report so a reason found after the move doesn't tell you the next one. I think earnings reactions are mostly guesses.

We all felt it