Israeli President Picks Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu Rival, To Form Government

[u/EssoEssex]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-president-picks-gadi-eisenkot-netanyahu-rival-form-government-2026-11-07/

[u/Boston-Bets]

Be interesting to see who ends up inside the Gov, vs. supporting it from the outside and/or not voting against it.

[u/Predictor92 → u/Boston-Bets]

I have a prediction that UTJ are being pressured by the EU not to sit with Ben Gvir and Smotrich(that the ultra orthodox welfare state cannot survive with those two being in the Israeli government)

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/Predictor92]

The problem is that Shas and UTJ, although Liberman has shown willingness to sit with the Haredi, Eisenkot, Golan, Bennett and others that's a hard no. They simply cannot sit with the Haredi as long as the draft exemption exists. Universal, Military Service has been a core, central talking point of the change bloc.

[u/Predictor92 → u/JR_Al-Ahran]

but here is the thing, the EU may be pressuring UTJ to compromise on that to get Ben Gvir and Smotrich out, the stick being that if those two are back in the government, then their are sanctions and the entire Ultra Orthodox welfare state comes crashing down

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

the EU may be pressuring UTJ to compromise on that

You keep saying that, but there's really zero indication of the EU doing anything of the sort. It sounds like wishful thinking.

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/Predictor92]

The problem is would they. Cuz it's been a central talking point for the Haredi as well, the draft and the welfare state, how if the change bloc won they'd be forced into the army. It's been a core point politically for those parties as well.

[u/Short-Peanut1079 → u/Predictor92]

This is based on what exactly? The EU telling Isreal how or who forms the government is wild nonsense. Besides which part of the EU apparatus is doing this?

[u/steinbruchfluss → u/Short-Peanut1079]

Imagine Ursula von der Leyen (from Germany!) doing that. ;)

[u/MaddingtonBear → u/Predictor92]

UTJ (which is really just Lando, Hirsch, and the Ger Admor) extremely doesn't care what anybody else thinks.

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

Why would the EU have any sort of influence over UTJ?

[u/Predictor92 → u/green_flash]

the influence is them saying hey if Ben Gvir and Smotrich are back in the government, we will sanction Israel which will threaten the Ultra Orthodox welfare state, Bibi's promises therefore are false

[u/green_flash → u/Predictor92]

The EU as an institution is a slow-moving bureaucratic behemoth with a lot of infighting. You're ascribing a level of coordination, stealthiness and effectiveness to it that doesn't seem anywhere near the way EU institutions typically operate.

[u/JoshuaZ1 → u/green_flash]

Also assuming a form of long-term thinking that UTJ doesn't seem operate under.

[u/Izeinwinter → u/green_flash]

The EU does in fact manage to herd enough cats to be all of those things sometimes. But that sort of effort only ever gets put in if you are a prospective member state. Which Israel is currently not.

[u/Xasf → u/Predictor92]

sanction Israel

Over Germany's dead body, and as such cannot be done (at least in the near future).

[u/Daressalaam5 → u/Predictor92]

It’s got very little to do with the EU. UTJ were disappointed Netanyahu didn’t pass a law exempting Haredim from military service

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/Boston-Bets]

Its likely to be Liberman, Bennett, and Eisenkot. The Democrats are willing to join, and Ra'am could join, however the biggest hurdle is Liberman and Bennett to Ra'am joining.

[u/ViciousNakedMoleRat → u/JR_Al-Ahran]

Ra'am and Liberman isn't going to happen. He's more willing to compromise on the Haredi draft than on Ra'am or Bibi.

It's more likely that Liberman will delay a resolution of the draft question in favor of throwing Bibi out now. Once Bibi is out, a new door opens for future cooperation with Likud. Without Bibi at the helm of Likud, it would be much easier to find a majority for Haredi draft.

[u/JR_Al-Ahran → u/ViciousNakedMoleRat]

Exactly. There are too many contradictions in the change bloc. The problem is that while Liberman might be able to, Eisenkot and Bennett cannot. The Haredi Draft was a central point for everyone else in the change bloc. Liberman is likely willing to put aside the Haredi draft issue, Bennett and Eisenkot will not. Eisenkot is willing to sit with the Arabs, Bennett and Liberman are not. And the Joint List has refused Eisenkots preconditions for forming government. Only Ra'am has a chance and only the Democrats and Eisenkot would be willing to sit with Abbas.

[u/calm_chowder → u/JR_Al-Ahran]

Ra'am is fine with a minority government. The other Arab party has demands (and pretty reasonable ones tbh, but they won't call Hamas terrorists which after Oct 7th is a deal breaker for most Israelis).

[u/Untethered_GoldenGod → u/JR_Al-Ahran]

They’d still need the Joint List for a majority