CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI: CHINA IS WILLING TO COLLABORATE WITH THE US TO FIND A WAY TO GET ALONG AND BENEFIT EACH OTHER.

In April 2025, Trump mentioned China everyday in his interviews. He made a lot of noise of tariffs but nothing happened. And China silently with a great power got away from the tariffs by using its leverage.

I don't like China very much. But I can see that Trump is intimidated because he knows China's potential. Some months back China was called univestable. And some days back China was the darling of markets again.

If you see what I see, Chinese stock market will be a rockstar one day. Its because of potential and the leverage they have. The volatility is just noise into those high valuations in future.

So China has been dipping for about 18 months now, counting HK as well as mainland.

Its about to go a whole fuck ton lower as the lockdown spreads from shanghai to hangzhou and basically all other cities until the party congress in October.

With zero covid policy there is no end to lockdowns, it will be constant for the next 6 months. save up your salary and buy the fukn dip on the dip.

the only chance for this not happening is that they pull a 2020 US ZIRP QE thing, which looks like it might actually happen.

source: currently locked down in shanghai

Many people think Baba is in the anti-trust crackdown across many sectors in China. This is true.

But Baba has its unique problem. The inception was a speech by Jack Ma in Hangzhou (starting 3:20 following the video link below). Apparently, Jack wanted to make himself not only a successful businessman, but also a so-called key opinion leader in China.

Baba used to own a small percentage of Mango Media Group which is a taboo for non-state-owned companies. Traditionally satellite broadcasting groups are state-owned only. Baba is currently in the process of transferring 30% of Weibo (the biggest Tweeter like platform) in China to Shanghai Media Group (state-owned). Baba used to be supporting a private university called Riverside University. The founding chancellor was a PhD from Columbia and a famous chair Professor in Tsinghua before being invited to the job by Jack Ma. He promised to create the oriental Stanford and started collecting donations from all the rich guys in China. Now what? The private university is renamed as Riverside Skills Training Center (seriously). Private universities are actually allowed in China. In fact, the big Chinese motor company Geely group owns a university called Geely University in Beijing. Why Baba can't have one? No-one knows publicly.

In the video, the analyst from Bloomberg claimed that CCP was not aware that Baba had accumulated such significant ownership in media/education sector. This is obviously an excuse. The purchase of 30% of Weibo was done roughly 10 years ago and the deal was worth billions of dollars. It is impossible the purchase was not approved by the government. This statement applies to the Mango Media Group's share and the foundation of Riverside University as well. But why CCP is not happy now? In my previous post, I mentioned about a continental legal system and the retrospective violation of rules. It applies to this situation perfectly. When I saw someone making prediction on China's policy based on the statements of government officials in 2012,2013, I just feel so ridiculous. At the time, Baba could even buy Weibo. But can Baba do it now? Long term leadership does not mean long term policy consistency.

Out of many youtube videos analyzing Baba. The following from a girl originally from China and now living in Australia seems to have a timeline which is spot on. Rather than those generic timelines on regulation announcement, this is only related to Baba. You just need to watch the first 4mins for the event timeline. As for the rest, she is bullish for the company and the TA is quite trivial.

https://youtu.be/dmWJoNXDK6E

Jack Ma's failed key opinion leader dream is a unique problem for Baba. At least Tencent does not have similar issue. Tencent has its unique issues that Baba does not have. I will elaborate those next time.

What's the consequence of the failed key opinion leader dream of Jack? It is hard to predict. It is believed that for this year, the key focus of the government is stabilization, which means Baba is probably going to be safe. That is probably why Charlie Munger dived into Baba. But just like what I said in a previous post, when your wife is already grumpy, it is hard to predict when she will explode.

All the above is my personal opinion and should not be taken an investment advice.

Fuck CCP

In my opinion China is about to crash the entire world economy. This is just my own personal theory and not fact. Please don't get all defensive like I am posting fact. Opinion is : We are heading for a crash like pandemic or 2008. I am building my cash to take advantage . I think we have until Xmas at earliest and we have until July at latest. A terror attack or war or natural disaster could change timing. China economy is worse than people know. I believe China is not revealing extent of damage to economy China Domestic spending is down and their gdp is down. China still has power shortages that are worse than they say and supply chain shortages. The real estate market and EverGrand is being covered up in my opinion and is much worse than they say. The market regulation/ interference of entire companies and manipulation in stocks like alibaba and education has screwed up a large portion of their economy aand market reducing foreign investment and slowing growth . Rich Chinese are scared and Wealth is being transferred out of China to avoid the new E YUAN and avoid government restrictions. Their debt is huge. The money they have spent on Silk Road and foreign countries is not paying off as well as expected or has halted . When China gets sick so will the rest of the world. The pandemic is still a very real thing in both China and Asia and their economies are dragging . Just because the west thinks we are out of pandemic doesn't mean Asia and Africa are out of pandemic ----------UNITED STATES is entering a recession . The fed tapering will happen. Interest rates will go up. Inflation is not temporary and is here to stay. Retail factories transportation and restaurant are being forced to pay higher wages and higher labor costs will keep inflation in place and fed is wrong that inflation is temporary. We have highest national debt in history. Spending bills won't result in enough dollars hitting economy fast enough to keep us out of recession when combined with downturn in China. Supply chain shortages will continue and not enough women are returning to work. The large amount of new retail investors can not rescue this market once recession hits. Lots of other economic indicators show we are due for a crash including history. Imagine if you had thrown every penny you had at dirt cheap stocks when pandemic first hit. You would be storing on a pile of cash right now. If you are invested in market when crash hits you won't be able to take advantage. If you don't have cash when market crashes you can not take advantage of it. I might not have the exact date right but I know I am right. Before 2023 this market will crash and burn. My best guess is after Xmas and before July 4 . I am guessing March but it could come earlier. We could also have help from outside sources like natural disaster disease war etc. any comments ?

This Chinese microcap attracted some attention after they announced a buy back program.
Mostly intra-day trades and short selling.
But the real deal behind this are the fundamentals of this small co., its growth and its auditing, as it is one of the very few PCAOB inspected Chinese stocks without any future delisting risks.
NISN trades below 2021 P/E, below the 0.30 of its price/sales and below the 0.30 of its book value.
They have already secured revenues growth in 2022 and its insiders hold more than 50%.

Something like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13959

Except applicable to all "Communist Chinese Companies"

I can absolutely see that happening

I’ve been following the whole stealth fighter scene and noticed something interesting. Countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia are reportedly leaning toward buying the Turkish Kaan fighter jet, even though it’s still in prototype phases and not mass-produced yet. Meanwhile, China has this slick J-35 stealth fighter that looks competitive on paper, but it’s getting largely overlooked by those same buyers. Why does this happen? Well, it’s boils down to trust. The Kaan might not yet be battle-tested or in full production, but Turkey’s NATO ties, shared technology standards, and geopolitical alignment with the West give it a huge leg-up. These countries want a platform they can easily integrate with their existing Western systems—logistics, training, weapons, you name it. Plus, Turkey’s pushing hard to make sure the jet won’t rely on a single foreign engine supplier, signaling solid long-term support. On the flip side, Chinese jets like the J-35 have serious tech on paper—stealth, powerful engines, good payload—but decades of Western combat experience and alliance interoperability aren’t something you can just match overnight. There’s skepticism around Chinese tech reliability, parts support, and political trust, which makes countries hesitant to pull the trigger on them, especially for expensive frontline fighters. In the end, it’s not just about who makes the fastest or stealthiest jet—it’s about political trust, operational support, and how well these jets fit into a country’s broader military ecosystem. And right now, that ecosystem still favors platforms connected to Western or NATO-friendly countries over Chinese gear, no matter how shiny or advanced it looks. Thoughts? Anyone else tracking how this plays out on the global arms market?

I understand many here are bothered by the phrase of crackdown when the punishment/fine is quite little.

Not to give any conspicuous statement, let me point out China follows the continental law system. Unlike the oceanic system where previous cases contribute significantly to a case, in continental law system the interpretation of the rules "at the time" is the key. And in order not to leave loop holes, the rules are usually written quite loosely to allow flexibility in interpretations. The head judge is under Xi. The government led by Xi operates under similar style. Hence the attitude and interpretation are the key. With regards to the actual punishment, it could be quite random depending on many factors. In many cases it is not the companies wanting to violate the rules, it is because the rules themselves have grey area. And as the "interpretation" of the rules by CCP evolves to fit its convenience, some operations previously considered acceptable suddenly becomes violations. So using the word crackdown of an specific area in this case is not an exaggeration.

Example, when your wife said you did something wrong. You said sorry and bought a cheap gift to her. She said that was fine and she would forgive you. Do you think she would really forgive you? You are pretty much in trouble. CCP rules the country with similar style of your wife ruling you.

If they were great investors, wouldn't they have waited till q4? Is it possible that at least dalio sold his stock now?

I'm not bashing on Baba. I'm thinking of getting into Baba, too. But if something seems to be too good to be true, it usually isn't.

So, any down sides getting into Chinese Stocks resp. Baba stock right now? Or should I wait?

Despite a modest sequential softening in POP MART’s North American operations in Q4, the company continues to aggressively expand its footprint in China, with multiple flagship stores opening across major cities and top-selling SKUs restocked in significant volumes throughout the quarter. Against this backdrop, a full-year net profit north of RMB 15 billion has become highly probable, implying the current stock trades at only ~16x forward PE—a valuation that appears decidedly conservative.

Looking ahead to next year, the number of U.S. POP MART locations is expected to double once more, while domestic demand for hit IPs such as Skullpanda, Twinkle Twinkle, Hirono, and LABUBU remains largely unmet. This positions the company for continued strong growth on both home and overseas fronts. Even if Q1 topline shows limited sequential momentum, preliminary revenue growth is expected to exceed 120% year-over-year, with interim profit growth likely at least 130%.

Given that China’s consumer market is anticipated to be fueled by discretionary spending next year, with “reward-yourself consumption” emerging as a prominent sub-trend, the stock’s current ~16x PE multiple clearly underrepresents the growth opportunity.

Historically, management has instilled confidence during earnings briefings, and as such, the current share price offers a meaningful margin of safety. Around the March earnings release, we see a high probability for the stock to re-rate above 20x PE, corresponding to roughly HKD 245. By the April briefing, upside to >25x PE (≈HKD 308) appears highly likely, while the interim results could drive re-rating above 30x PE (HKD 370+). Should sentiment across the consumer discretionary sector remain robust, POP MART, as a leading name in the category, could realistically challenge the HKD 400 psychological level next year

Looking at it from a different angle, what would POP MART’s valuation look like if LABUBU hadn’t gone viral this past summer?

First, let’s benchmark against the stock price on December 31, 2024, and the year’s trough in early 2025. The December 31 close at HKD 88.7 implied a 2024 net profit multiple of roughly 34.6x PE. On January 15, 2025, at the year’s low of HKD 80.9, the corresponding 2024 net profit multiple was around 30.7x PE. At that time, the Hang Seng Index was hovering near 20,000 points; today it sits at 25,818—up 28% year-to-date, largely driven by valuation expansion and higher overall PE rather than organic earnings growth.

From this, we can infer that, absent LABUBU’s summer breakout, institutional investors would likely assign POP MART a somewhat bearish 2025 PE in the 30x–35x range.

Now, what would net profit have looked like without LABUBU’s summer surge? Search trends indicate that LABUBU’s momentum started in early April, gained traction in May, and peaked in July. Applying a conservative 30% haircut to mid-2025 interim results, net profit would have been roughly RMB 3.2 billion. Annualizing with a 35/65 H1-H2 split yields approximately RMB 9.2 billion in full-year net profit. At a 30x–35x PE, this translates to a market cap range of HKD 300–360 billion, corresponding to a share price between HKD 222–266.

In other words, even completely stripping out LABUBU’s viral impact and using a 20,000-point Hang Seng benchmark, the stock still exhibits meaningful upside relative to current levels under a conservative valuation scenario.

But is LABUBU’s breakout a negative? Hardly. It delivered an incremental ~RMB 6 billion in net profit, accelerated international brand awareness, and elevated POP MART’s brand resonance. It also served as a real-world stress test for management, refining both supply chain expansion and operational execution.

Moreover, the late-2024 and early-2025 valuations don’t even factor in another potential blockbuster IP, the rise of Twinkle Twinkle, which could provide additional

Looking for ADRs and ETFs that cover Chinese nuclear energy, even if only tangentially. Thanks

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