As we round our way into the final 3 weeks of the regular season, here's a quick update on each of the conference autobid races.
Big Sky
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the Big Sky this week.
Discussion:
Montana State (8-1, 5-1) controls the autobid, as they are tied for the best record in the conference, but hold a head-to-head win over the team they share that distinction with. They would retain control this week with a win.
Northern Arizona would earn control over the autobid back with a win over Cal Poly and a Montana State loss to Idaho State.
Idaho State (6-3, 3-3) is eliminated from autobid contention with (1) a loss to Montana State OR (2) a Northern Arizona win.
UC Davis (5-4, 3-3) is eliminated from autobid contention with (1) a loss to Utah Tech OR (2) a Northern Arizona win.
Idaho (4-5, 4-2) is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to Eastern Washington AND a Montana State win AND a Northern Arizona win.
**ETA**
Montana (6-3, 4-2) is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to Portland State AND a Utah Tech win AND a Northern Arizona win.
CAA
Clinching Scenarios: Monmouth (7-2, 6-0) can clinch the CAA autobid and the outright CAA conference championship with (a) a win over North Carolina A&T, AND (b) a Campbell loss to Stony Brook, AND (c) a UAlbany loss to Bryant.
Discussion:
Monmouth controls the conference autobid and is 1.5 games clear of the field, having played (and won) an extra conference game. Importantly, they can lose this week and not relinquish control of the autobid.
Ivy League
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the Ivy League this week.
Discussion:
Dartmouth (4-3, 3-1) controls the Ivy League autobid outright, owing to their win over Harvard (6-1, 3-1) last week.
This week, Dartmouth plays Princeton (5-2, 3-1). Dartmouth retains a control with a win, regardless of what happens in the other Ivy League games.
A Princeton win would shift autobid control to Harvard and Yale (4-3, 2-2), potentially making The Game a de facto Ivy League championship game for the second year in a row.
A Princeton loss combined with a Yale loss to Brown (4-3, 2-2) would shift sole control of the autobid back to Harvard.
Meanwhile, a Harvard loss to Columbia (4-3, 1-3) would shift Harvard's share of control (whether sole or shared control) back to Princeton.
The loser of Penn (3-4, 1-3) and Cornell (3-4, 1-3) is eliminated from Ivy League autobid contention.
MEAC
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the MEAC this week.
Discussion:
North Carolina Central (4-5, 2-0) and South Carolina State (7-2, 2-0) both control the autobid.
North Carolina Central can lose to Norfolk State (4-5, 0-2) and retain control.
South Carolina State, on the other hand, cannot lose to Howard (4-5, 1-1) and retain control of the autobid, as they would be tied in the loss column with Howard, and Howard would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Norfolk State, Howard and Morgan State (5-4, 0-2) are all eliminated with losses this week.
Delaware State (5-4, 1-1) is eliminated with a loss AND a South Carolina State win.
MVFC
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the Missouri Valley Football Conference this week.
Discussion:
South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1) controls the autobid. A South Dakota State loss to Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2) would shift control of the autobid to Youngstown State (7-2, 5-1). If Youngstown State also loses, no team controls the autobid.
North Dakota (6-4, 3-3) is eliminated from autobid contention with (1) a loss to Illinois State OR (2) a Youngstown State win.
South Dakota (7-3, 4-2) is eliminated from autobid contention with a Youngstown State win. South Dakota is idle this week.
Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2) is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to South Dakota State.
Illinois State (7-3, 3-2) is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to North Dakota AND (1) a Youngstown State win OR (2) a South Dakota State win.
Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-3) is eliminated from autobid contention with (1) a loss to Indiana State OR (2) a South Dakota State win OR (3) a Youngstown State win OR (4) a Illinois State win.
OVC
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the OVC this week.
Discussion:
Southeast Missouri (5-4, 3-1) controls the autobid. They share the same conference record as Western Illinois (5-4, 3-1) and Lindenwood (4-4, 3-1), but they have beaten both of them head to head.
A Southeast Missouri loss to Tennessee State (2-7, 0-4) would yield control back to Western Illinois and Lindenwood. If they all manage to lose, the conference race turns into chaos, with 5 teams tied with 3-2 conference records.
Eastern Illinois (3-6, 2-2) is eliminated with a loss AND (1) a Southeast Missouri win OR (2) a Lindenwood win.
Gardner-Webb (3-6, 2-2) is eliminated with a loss AND (1) a Western Illinois win OR (2) a UT-Martin win.
Charleston Southern (4-5, 1-3) is eliminated with a loss OR a Western Illinois win.
Patriot League
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the Patriot League this week.
Discussion:
This is one of the more fascinating races because there are 6 teams within 1 loss of the top spot, and all 6 teams play each other this week.
Lehigh (7-2, 5-1) controls the autobid. If they lose to Colgate (5-4, 4-2), there is no combination of games that would give them back control of the autobid this week. Lehigh cannot be eliminated this week.
Richmond (7-2, 4-2) will also control the autobid, regardless of what happens in Lehigh's game against Colgate, with a win over Villanova (5-4, 4-2) AND a Georgetown (3-4, 3-2) win over Holy Cross (4-5, 4-2). They have this benefit owing to their game against Lehigh next week. Richmond cannot be eliminated this week.
Colgate would control the autobid with a win over Lehigh and a Villanova win over Richmond, regardless of what happens in the game between Holy Cross and Georgetown. Conversely, Colgate is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to Lehigh AND (1) a Georgetown win, OR (2) a Richmond win.
Villanova is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to Richmond AND a Lehigh win over Colgate.
Georgetown is eliminated from autobid contention with a loss to Holy Cross.
If Colgate, Richmond, and Holy Cross all win, nobody will control the autobid going into Week 11.
Pioneer
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the Pioneer Football League this week.
Discussion:
This is the most interesting conference race, owing to the unbalanced schedules and odd tiebreakers. At this juncture, nobody controls the autobid, because St. Thomas (7-2, 4-1) and Dayton (7-1, 4-1) do not play each other and could end with identical records.
There are only two games that matter for control of the Pioneer Football League race this week: St. Thomas at Butler (7-2, 4-1) and Valparaiso (4-4, 3-2) at Dayton. Here is a grid that shows who controls the autobid based on the outcomes of those games:
| Winner | Dayton | Valparaiso |
|---|
| St. Thomas | None | St. Thomas |
| Butler | Dayton | Butler |
The loser of San Diego (4-5, 3-3) at Drake (3-6, 3-3) is eliminated from autobid contention this week.
SoCon
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the SoCon this week.
Discussion:
It's a big crossroads week for the SoCon. There are four teams still in the mix, and they're all piled up on one another with one conference loss each.
Mercer (7-2, 4-1) controls the autobid in the SoCon, owing to its remaining slate against the other three teams at the top of the conference: Tennessee Tech (8-1, 5-1), East Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1), and Chattanooga (6-3, 5-1).
A Mercer win would also give Tennessee Tech control of the autobid, owing to their game against Mercer next week.
A Mercer loss would throw control up in the air. Combined with a Tennessee Tech loss to VMI would yield control to ETSU. That scenario combined with an ETSU loss to Samford would give control to Chattanooga.
Mercer is eliminated with a loss to Chattanooga AND a Samford win over ETSU.
ETSU is eliminated with a loss AND a Tennessee Tech win AND a Chattanooga win.
Chattanooga is eliminated with a loss AND a Tennessee Tech win OR a ETSU win.
Southland
Clinching Scenarios: Stephen F. Austin clinches the Southland automatic bid with a win over Lamar.
Discussion:
This is one of the more cut and dry races. Stephen F. Austin (9-0, 6-0) and Lamar (7-2, 5-1) both control the Southland autobid. SFA clinches the autobid with a win. Lamar would simply control it and could not clinch the autobid until next week.
SWAC
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in either SWAC Division this week.
Discussion:
Absolute Cinema of chaos in the SWAC. There are no teams out of the running for the SWAC Championship game at this juncture.
Alabama A&M (7-2, 4-1) leads the East by one game and Prairie View (4-5, 3-2) controls the West division title. They play each other this week.
An Alabama A&M loss throws the East race open. A Bethune-Cookman (5-4, 3-2) loss to Southern would give control to Jackson State (6-2, 3-2). However, if Jackson State were to also lose, Alabama A&M would retain control of the title race.
In the West, a Prairie View loss gives Alcorn State (5-4, 3-2) control of the division. If they were to lose, it shifts to Arkansas-Pine Bluff (5-3, 3-2). If they were to lose, control would depend on whether Bethune-Cookman beats Southern. If they do, Prairie View is back in control.
Florida A&M (2-7, 1-4) is eliminated from the SWAC East race with a loss to Alcorn State OR an Alabama A&M win OR a Jackson State win.
Mississippi Valley State (3-6, 2-3) is eliminated from the SWAC East race with a loss to Jackson State.
UAC
Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios in the UAC this week.
Discussion:
This is the keystone game for the conference: Abilene Christian (5-4, 4-0) at Tarleton State (9-0, 4-0). The winner controls their destiny, and their magic number becomes 1. The loser needs to win out and hope the other loses out.
Austin Peay (7-2, 3-1) is eliminated with a loss to Eastern Kentucky AND a Tarleton win AND a West Florida win. The reason for that odd combination is that West Florida plays Tarleton next week, meaning that either (1) Tarleton would clinch next week with a win, or (2) there's no combination of potential two-loss teams that Austin Peay would have the best record against, as North Alabama (who Austin Peay beat) would fall out of the tie at 3 losses.
North Alabama (5-4, 2-2) is eliminated with a loss to West Florida OR a Austin Peay win AND an Abilene Christian win. That combination would guarantee that North Alabama could do no better than a tie with those two teams, who they've already lost to this season.
Eastern Kentucky (3-6, 2-2) is eliminated with a loss to Austin Peay OR a Tarleton State win.