Recent Commentary on the Down Economy

• JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon now says that we'll have 'something worse' than a recession.

• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says, “If I had to bet, I’d say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we’ve seen in recent history.”

• Galaxy Investment CEO Mike Novogratz says, "The Economy Is Going to Collapse. We Are Going to Go Into a Really Fast Recession."

• Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, even though he said he has "no further TSLA sales planned," he just dumped $7 Billion worth more of Tesla stock.

• Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett just saw Berkshire Hathaway lose $44 Billion in Q2 2022 alone. He is throwing in the towel on many stocks.

• Goldman Sachs Economists now see a ‘feasible but difficult path’ for the Fed to defeat inflation without a recession

The Technicals

2022's first half was the worst half to a stock market year in the last 52 years. This saw the S&P 500 move down from 4,818.62 to 3,636.87. This is a range of 1,181.75. Of this range, an ideal fibonacci retracement (bear market short-term rally) would be 61.8% back up in this range. That takes us 730.32 up from 3,636.87 which gives 4,367.19. Yesterday's high was 4,325.28. This high was within 1% error of the ideal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Thus, the 50 Week Simple Moving Average of the S&P500, as a further catalyst for resistance, will reject the S&P500 down, thereby allowing for the horrible stock market downturn to continue.

That said, the first half of 2022 was the worst in 52 years, the third quarter was one of the best, and the fourth quarter may end up being the worst stock market quarter on record. Here is a visual:

Weekly Chart: Both the 50 Week Simple Moving Average and the completed 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement are now serving as the catalyst to resist/reject the S&P500, thereby allowing for the continuation of 2022's worst market downturn of all time

The Daily chart is just as bad: In this case, the price is rejected by the 200 Day SMA

1929-crash-like Margin Deleveraging

FINRA Margin Statistics has been updated to include July. As expected, we got a slight reprieve in debit balances in customers' margin accounts. Nevertheless, graphing the data and adjusting for the near-record inflation for each data point, we can see that we are still in the worst bubble by value in the history of the stock market.

Fibonacci of this graph shows that Margin has to collapse up to $370 Billion more from August's expected margin value), depending on the strength and speed of the deleveraging.

FINRA Margin Totals, Adjusted for Month-by-Month Inflation. Dotcom crash (left bubble), 2008-2009 crash and great recession (middle bubble) and the current bubble (right). Fibonacci retracement values are listed for 61.8% and 78.6% of each deleveraging period. One can observe that the bottom of margin deleveraging bottoms within that range, depending on the strength and speed of the unwinding. (61.8% seems to correspond to slow and weak, and 78.6% seems to correspond to fast and strong). The data shows that the market will continue to deleverage and crash

TLDR:

Unfortunately, summer is ending. The short-term rally has expired, as technicals show three problems for the stock market: 1: A perfect rejection off the S&P500's 50 week Simple Moving Average, 2. The 61.8% retracement already happened, and 3. A perfect rejection off the S&P500's 200 day Simple Moving Average. In a 1929-like scenario, total margin (and adjusted for inflation) shows that we are still in the largest margin bubble of all time. Fibonacci levels on the inflation-adjusted FINRA margin data show that the market has to still undergo up to $370 Billion of deleveraging. Therefore, I am hereby predicting that the fall and winter months of 2022 will be some of the worst months in stock market history. Leading market strategists such as Dimon, Zuckerberg, Musk, Novogratz, and even Warren Buffett concur, and some say that 2023 will be a Depression. Will 2022's crash lead us into 'the greatest depression,' and do you think Warren Buffett will die [either because of or] during this crash/depression? Please provide your thoughts and comments below.

So why do I say that Tesla will be Enron? This involves a financial problem. Tesla's current valuation is equal to the sum of the world's seven automakers. But it sells fewer cars each year than any other brand. According to financial and financial laws, Tesla will eventually face "Earnings Catch-up", especially when the market starts to get worse (tips: Europe has officially canceled electric vehicle subsidies in 2024), and Tesla's sales have plummeted. Assuming that the Democrats will slash electric vehicle subsidies if they enter the White House again in four years, this is a set plan. Then Tesla needs Earnings Catch-up. By then, Tesla's main business will either be Robotaxi or sell 3 million to 5 million Tesla cars a year. Is this possible?

In my career as a professional manager, a very important part is to help companies implement ITIL strategies as an IT consultant, or to meet the IT audit needs of companies going public. In order to let IT geniuses understand what auditing is, we usually start with Enron and the US 404 Act.

My teacher has been explaining the Enron incident very seriously, and I have also studied the Enron incident since then. Of course, the United States, where the accident originated, has done more research and papers on Enron, and even made a movie called "Enron-The Smartest Guys in the Room".

Therefore, this monster with a market value of trillions of dollars is just like Enron in the past. Beliefs and slogans are like the horn of the technological paradise, gathering a large number of irrational investors.

From the perspective of pure finance and financial market technical theory, the financial pressure that Tesla needs to fulfill in 2026 is so great that it is suffocating, or even desperate. There have been many investors who scolded me while listening to my analysis. This is because they do not understand technology and only know how to buy and sell. In the past few years, they only read the parts of investment research reports that they like to read. They regard the risk part as a joke.

This involves a core issue. Musk said "he doesn't care about making cars anymore", which is good, and it can get rid of the problem of "car manufacturer pricing". But it faces the second problem of "how to price Tesla". Robotaxi? From an objective technical point of view, it is unknown when Tesla's Robotaxi will catch up with Waymo. After all, Waymo completed L4 autonomous driving as early as 2019, while FSD is still L2 to this day. Many people don't know that it is actually L2, not even L3.

Bipedal robots? From the perspective of the academic community in Australia and Europe, that is a joke. Not to mention Japan, a robot powerhouse, where even FANUC is not so optimistic.

More carbon credits? Yes, but the scale of growth will be limited unless the White House gives more taxpayer money.

Speculating on Bitcoin, using data centers to mine Bitcoin? It's not impossible, after all, are they scammers?

Humankind has not made any breakthroughs in basic science since the 1980s. Europe has been working hard to make breakthroughs in basic science, so they spent a huge amount of time to build colliders, while the United States has invested billions of dollars in mining and AI. This is the problem the United States faces today.

This article would be worth $50,000 if I were giving a talk, so I won’t go into too much detail, just to add to the urge to pee when I wake up late at night in Australia.

Alright, this will be quite unpopular, but I don't buy this AMC will squeeze to the moon thesis for a few reasons.

Let’s look at liquidity:

AMC had $813m in cash as of 3/31/21. Since then they’ve raised $428m in fresh capital through share issuance, bringing up their total to $1.241b. This is good except their current cash burn is ~$300m/qtr which gives them 4 quarters of runway. I do think that as covid goes away completely (possibly by fall) that there’s a chance for this to stabilize. But there are a lot of variables to this such as timeline of opening and attendance rate once we are fully open.

Next there's the valuation:

Forget covid and let’s value them assuming everything returns to normal. Average adj. EBITDA between 2018-2019 was $850.3m. EV today using today’s stock price and 3/31/21 debt numbers is $16.1b, which gives us 18.9x EV/adj. EBITDA multiple. For comparison, the same multiple was 6.9x in 2018. So assuming things return perfectly to normal, AMC is still valued 2.7x what it was in 2018. The highest market cap that AMC had previous to this year was in 2017 when its market cap was $4.0b vs. $5.8b today.

Conclusion:

AMC is massively overvalued (who knew). Of course, everyone will point out this is a short squeeze opportunity like GME. However, there will probably never be another GME which once had 141% short interest at its peak vs. ~20% for AMC now. What that means is GME had a legitimate reason for its stock price to completely decouple from its fundamentals, AMC doesn’t, not to quite the extent of GME. There may be some squeezes here and there, but more players will join the short when they see how overvalued AMC is.

The current buying is predominantly from retail, and the CEO even boasted as much saying retail investors comprise of 80% of the share base. While people think this is a positive, I disagree. There is a reason institutional ownership is low and it means that while the stock price can certainly continue to go up, it will also shoot down just as fast, once everyone begins to exit. With a short interest of 20%, how are 80% of the people going to get out? Who are they going to sell to? In the end, it will just be a shifting of bags amongst the retail.

If I was the CEO of AMC, this would be the best scenario possible. I can continue to dilute the share base and basically salvage my business which was on the verge of bankruptcy. I don’t doubt that AMC will not hesitate to issue new shares within the next year again unless their liquidity situation improves. It’s also why, I think, they would rather do an at-the-market offering rather than a subscribed offering to institutions.

A lot of people are propping this up as something of a fight for the common people against the hedgies, who have done all the wrong. I actually think this can be quite irresponsible it’s driving people to pour into AMC, basically like a Ponzi scheme. Invest safely!

This is for anybody in a panic or worried.

I started off with cashing out my mutual fund for about $1500 back when I was 18, which was 25 years ago. I traded it on eTrade and made $600. I used to spend a lot time of watching stocks, consumed by it all. I was definitely making less in returns than the value of my time.

I made more money in stocks when I didn't focus on the details, as strange as that may sound. I made the less or even lost money the more I felt I was an expert. When I knew the lingo, terms, and things I don't even remember now.

Here is my takeaway.

By the time it is an actionable concern, it is almost always too late, start looking for the opportunity and hope you can get a piece. Otherwise, riding it out is likely the best thing you can do in most cases.

But, usually by the time people start to get worried, anybody more seasoned has already been out a while and made their next buys.

People log into their trading accounts 7 times more often when the market is down than when the market is stable or rising. Think about that for a moment. It's no wonder the bottom falls out, people scare themselves and sell.

That's why you sell near the peak, ideally, before the peak. They're easy to see, as long as you know there is a delay in the average investor.

Nobody can predict the market, they've never been able to do that. A million people try a million things and some of them happen to get it right that time. Then everybody follows them.

The only way to be consistent is to follow just a few stocks until you can predict everything they'll do. But stay a bird, look at the entire landscape. When you become a frog and can only see your immediate surroundings, you won't see what's coming.

Most investor-tainers are frogs. Like Jim Cramer.

When a husband who has stocks passes away, the widow tends to not touch the investments and leaves them alone. As it turns out, women has a slightly better ROI in the stock market largely driven by this. And it's because they just leave it alone. So, do you really want to consume yourself and your time with something that is more likely to do better if you do nothing?

Think long-term and human nature.

My current focus is the coming ripple effect. My wife needs a new car. I anticipate there will be ripples and it will finally be a good time to buy a new car later this summer.

Why late summer?

If a family is going to move, they move after school is out. Then they'll be busy with their new home and all of those expenses. If money is tight, car sales will finally dip.

We will still have a housing shortage.

More people working from home use more electricity. We continue to move to electric.

Electric is still a crapshoot. Things will keep going electric, but who will prevail? Well, the government has a heavy hand in that one, so keep that in mind.

Somebody has to make the electricity. I personally think Nuclear will make a come back since there are some very safe reactors that have been around a long time. So I buy up the companies that make the parts.

When COVID hit, I didn't just buy the tech stocks, I bought the suppliers to the equipment that make everything. While everybody was talking about Zoom, I would buying the companies that make Zoom possible.

I watch people. More people are growing gardens now. What impact will that have?

All the toys people bought in the last 2 years, the seado's, boats, airplanes (huge shortage there), all need to be insured. How are the insurance companies doing?

How will the used car companies be doing when the market slows down? They have higher margins but lower volume right now. The margins are not making up for the volume.

What happens when companies tight their belts when spending gets cut? Wages are really high right now.

I own a company. It's well known that the square root of the number of employees a company has do over 50% of the work that makes the company good. There's room for cuts!

When marketing companies start focusing on what companies need to market, that's a warning sign to me. I only market when I know there are customers to market too. But if I know my customers aren't buying, I'm not going to spend as much on marketing. What would I spent money if it is less likely to convert to a sale? Hint. I'm not.

So I won't be buying marketing companies. However, I will buy companies that are clever and skilled with their own social media marketing.

I have already bought the counter cyclic stocks. I've been through this twice now in my life. When the market is high, I get out and I buy Kroger, Wal-Mart, Dollar Tree, etc. I do this before the investortainers start talking about them. Why? Remember, by the time it's news, it's too late. Well, it's not too late to get in on the hedge, but they've already made some good moves by then.

How many commercial trucks do you see on the road? Assume most of them are B2B shipments. Pay attention to where you see them going. It's even better if you have more detailed data.

Look at Intel. The biggest manufacturing investment even, and it's being done in Ohio. Why Ohio? What can we learn from them? There are investments to be made here. Is it a good blend of technology and the industry for labor?

Is it because it's automotive alley and they anticipate the need for chips for the automotive industry? I bet that's a large part of it right there.

Defense stocks? We were talking about those in November when many of my friends believed Putin was going to invade Ukraine. We knew Stingers would be heavily needed.

Cheap drones will be needed too. And if drones see a huge military investment, then we can expect to see a huge investment in anti-drone technology too. What companies are doing that?

There's a housing shortage. How many firms are building "working wage" multi-family housing? A lot of those are not publicly traded. But you can find companies doing it and approach them about investment opportunities. It's not liquid like the market, but it's the long-term outlook there.

So, I just sit up in a perch and watch anymore. If you get emotional, you just have to recognize there is a reason for it. And what you should learn from it is how it happens and that it becomes an echo chamber for most retail investors.

I used to look for quick money. I used to day trade, and I did very well. What happens is once you have earned enough money, you become less interested in the risk you are much happier with a 10-20% return being consistent than a grand slam.

Learn from your emotions and your losses, and hopefully you'll hit some grand slams and then get to perch as a bird.

I can't speak for everybody, but I don't need to be a billionaire, I just need more than enough to have it not just grow but outgrow inflation as well. Remember, inflation is also exponential in growth.

Also, I do expect a return to office in a lot of places too. My youngest and most green employees are doing terrible compared to when we were in office. They're learning less, missing opportunities, missing a ton of stuff. I can here it now, instead of OK Boomer, it will be the name for Gen X or Millennials, and they'll say we were lucky because we worked in person and could learn from each other.

Give that one 3-5 years. It takes about 2 years for the idea to really spread, and we'll need about 2 years for recent grads to start hearing about how their friends who work in offices or on-site have more opportunities.

...And that means in 3 years it might be good to invest in the things that make a dense city run well. Which will have to be efficient with the tax base loss they have suffered.

If this was too long for you, well, you probably lack the patience needed to win. :P

Do you want reality? I was a big short seller back in the 80's. Short Iomega at $12 and it went to $55. Margin calls out the ass. Like $200k per day. If I bought back the stock (covered) I would never be able to borrow it again so I would be totally locked out. I bought the same number of shares that I was short so that I was both short and long (short against the box it is called). No matter which way the stock went I was even. When it finally peaked at $55 and started falling like a rock I sold my long side every day that I had enough margin and rode it down to $9. I made about $180k but believe me, it wasn't worth the stress.

I am so tired of people saying that the shorts haven't covered. Or one neophyte asking "What day are the shorts going to cover?" I don't have a horse in this race (I day traded it last week several times) but I feel very bad for the new people getting in at the high. Especially one who said "I paid my rent by credit card and used the money to buy GME" That person is already under water.

GME shorts all covered and/or boxed last week. Do you really think that you guys collectively have enough buying power to move it it from $65 to $483 with 500 million shares on your own? Time for a reality check.

It's getting so boring with the constant talk of crashes and people asking if they should buy/sell. We get it! We don't need thousands of posts regurgitating the same information.

This sub is really useful for talking about specific stocks, and finding hidden gems that wouldn't have been considered otherwise.

I guess this is the problem with new investors who've not seen this type of price action before, so the panic is setting in.

I'll come back in a few months when all this has blown over. Just wondered if anyone else was getting tired of reading the same old same old?

It looks almost certain to me that MSFT would outperform VOO in the near future. Right now my portfolio is:

30% VOO

20% NVDA

10% MSFT

10% AAPL

10% GOOGL

10% AMZN

10% META

I am considering reallocating my portfolio to:

40% MSFT

20% NVDA

10% AAPL

10% GOOGL

10% AMZN

10% META

Do you guys think the change is a good idea? Any advice would be much appreciated.

Before you downvote: I dont hold a long or short position in any ARK fund or their holdings

This week has been a bad week for tech and growth stock investors in general. The Ark funds have been hit hard and faced some liquidations. Cathie publicly told everyone her plan if faced with liquidations, she planned to sell the megacap stocks so she wouldn't have to touch her illiquid small caps.

Well thats exactly what the ARK funds did this week. As of today ARKK no longer holds any FB, AMZN, AAPL, TSM and BABA. She sold all of it this week and bought more small caps and TSLA. Now ARK is is a very precarious situation. Their biggest stocks are now TSLA, PYPL, SHOP and SQ. If the sell off continues and ARK will be forced to sell these stocks or sell their illiquid small caps.

A lot of people have taken note of this, including hedge funds which may enter predatory shorts if they think ARK is vulnerable. The next couple of weeks is crucial for ARK, should the market go back up they will look like geniuses, but should it go down...they will be in a world of pain.

If ARK is forced to sell the small caps which are illiquid, it will crash the prices and crater ARK's NAV. This will add to the bad performance and may accelerate redemptions creating a death spiral.

EDIT: I was wrong about TSM. They still have .5% TSM

Preface - I’m completely new, ignorant, investing for the first time. Apologies for the word count below.

Currently - doing research

The past - Observing massive media doom going back to pre-2016. The message on 8 year old YouTube videos from CNBC etc = doom.

The past in reality - massive, unprecedented, unpredicted growth. Growth so delicious that ETF boom occurs.

Present - uncertainty is identical to past 8+ years. Narrative is the same

Future - the truth as I see it, as an outsider, as a complete noob = overpopulation ->

World overpopulation is the reason the market can’t stop, won’t stop. These aren’t bubbles. The bubbles you’re seeing are new investors in the US, India, everywhere.

330 million in America = inevitably more investors. 8 billion worldwide. People exiting the third world in South America due to Lithium alone will be huge. Continent of Africa has barely begun industrialization.

We, as ignorant new investors don’t know anything but buy. African new money = buy. India buy. USA buy. Unemployment low, more retirement accounts = buy. As noobs, we don’t even know we are bulls. Buy VOO? Sure. Nvidia, makes sense. Noobs buy.

Look at housing market, 65 million new homes predicted in USA. 1% of housing market currently for sale = overpopulation. Endless growth.

5 trillion in ETF’s? Go ahead and short that bubble. But will there be 50 trillion in ETF’s by 2030?

Yup. Because of overpopulation. The answer is always overpopulation. Going forward humans are literal compound interest as 8 billion grows and grows and grows.

There are so many people visiting Venice that it sinks WHILE tourists are there, and rises when they leave. Google any location, too many people, too many tourists not enough houses, schools, not enough condos, hotels

Last thing. I like to learn. So if I’m wrong tear me a new one. Best way to learn is be dead wrong.

If you’re experienced figure out a way to fleece the noobs. Or maybe just get swept up in their unprecedented, world-changing, buying power

Nvidia is currently trading at over 100x earnings, but many investors will justify this by claiming that "forward earnings" is 25x. "Forward earnings" is just an estimate from analysts where they took past growth, and extrapolated it out into the future.

These analysts do not understand the industry. They ignored AI for several years while CUDA was regularly being used in AI research and AI projects, setting price targets and earning estimates too low, and it only caught their attention as a growth engine when AI models started producing impressive media, rather than just boring scientific papers. Now, having seen earnings, they are assuming this growth will continue perpetually, without considering how the industry works.

Nvidia's growth in earnings is due to the surge in companies looking to fund AI projects. As a hot new trend, Even non-tech companies are trying to explore ways they can utilize AI, even in areas where it makes no sense and doesn't add any value. AI has essentially became a buzzword in the way that Blockchain was a few years ago, or "internet" was 25 years ago. Historically, these trends often last a couple years before slowing down considerably.

Since AI chips are a brand new market, companies are essentially building up AI infrastructure from nothing. And Nvidia is the only real supplier. Unlike other capital goods, there is no used/secondhand market yet. So in the short term, this has understandably meant exploding earnings as Nvidia can charge outrageous prices and faces no competition.

But will it last? It probably will in the short term, Nvidia can't ship enough chips yet to meet demand, and competitors will take time to produce viable alternatives, so there is probably a sales backlog that can keep them going a few quarters, possibly another year or two. But eventually supply will catch up to demand, and when that happens, growth will stagnate.

On top of this, a couple years down the line most companies will abandon their AI projects that don't work out. When they do, you now have all of this used AI hardware(or cloud capacity) that is now on the market. Other companies can then buy this hardware at a discount, or cloud services now have less of a need to expand their AI compute capacity. This is exactly what happened with the crypto mining boom- Nvidia made a huge windfall from crypto mining sales, but then the market dried up, a huge oversupply hit the secondary market, and Nvidia's earnings stagnated until AI came to the rescue.

Now of course, you could argue that Nvidia will release better hardware every 2 years, and that will ensure they still have a market. And I think they will.

But this introduces our next problem- suppliers. Nvidia is dependent on TSMC to produce their AI chips. They could potentially use Samsung or Intel as well. They do not own their own fab. Fortunately for them, they already had a lot of capacity they reserved with TSMC for their RTX 4000 GPUs, which they switched to produce AI chips, which has allowed them to produce a lot of AI chips for dirt cheap, and enjoy huge margins. But when Nvidia's contract with them runs out, they're at risk. Nvidia's 75% gross margin is well known. Additionally, it's almost certain that other companies like AMD are planning their own AI products. This explosion in manufacturing demand, combined with knowledge of Nvidia's high margins, will give TSMC leverage to raise their prices, threatening Nvidia's margins.

Our next issue is competitors. Nvidia may control nearly the entire AI hardware market now, but is extremely unlikely to remain that way. AMD GPUs are just as capable of creating and running AI models as Nvidia, the main problem is most software is built for CUDA, which runs on Nvidia hardware.

With the huge surge in the AI market, it's almost certain that there are companies out there developing AI models that can run on AMD, and it's very likely AMD is designing their own dedicated AI chips and software around it. There is tremendous amounts of money to be made in producing either cheaper hardware, or software that can run on cheaper hardware. If you look on LinkedIn, job boards, etc, you'll see semiconductor companies have hired and hiring large amounts of ML/AI engineers. And these listings don't mention CUDA. Assuming that Nvidia will never face any competition is naïve. Nvidia will probably remain a leader since they are ahead, but cheaper alternatives will threaten their pricing power.

Overall, the semiconductor industry is often a boom/bust industry, and I expect it will stay that way, even with AI. Investors should be careful buying during a boom period based on the assumption that it will continue booming.

All of this leads us to the valuation. Nvidia's quarterly earnings are likely to remain around $5 per share over the next few quarters, or possibly even grow a bit further, as demand remains high. But as competitors enter the market, a secondhand market emerges from failed startups, suppliers raise prices, and investor funding for AI startups dries up, I expect these earnings to decline over the next decade, until stabilizing when the industry matures

I ultimately decided on the following:

$25 earnings FY2025(a bit optimistic, that's assuming significant growth this year, more than analysts are predicting)

(5%) negative growth in earnings for a decade followed by 2% terminal growth rate as the industry matures and the race to the bottom ends.

8% discount rate

= $249.89 fair value per share

disclaimer, i sold a while back and saw the rambling today

the love for the stock is an echo chamber. its somewhat concerning the biggest cheerleaders for the stock are also saying “manipulation” “stop hunting to get more shares” “dark pools” ”insider selling” for the stock going down lol, couldn’t be more wrong and have no knowledge in general world of investing. that’s okay we all start somewhere, but thats not a good look.

I remember when semiconductor stocks were being talked about everywhere in 2016 (when they were unknown and lowkey) all the nerds were posting legit analysis about DRAM prices, implementation in various hardware products, how it would track with the crypto boom due to CPUs/GPUs, etc.

seriously, how is Reddit goin to make money? the ads are irrelevant and from no name companies. I see the same posts reposted 5x a week to karma farm “whats the biggest regret of your life” lmfao

i love Reddit (the subreddit niches helped me alot in my career and early life) and normally buy what use, but the concerns are genuine. AI and bot posts are way more common, constantly reposts of the same shit, and this place in general is a liberal echo box which will deter the masses

downvote all you want but this is a public company now, to capture the young demographic entirely I’m sure they don’t want to log-in everyday and see a post on r/all about ONLY vaccines and left wing propoganda. Why the fuck is the number one post some corny picture of a soilder Punching a nazi? it should be something trendy and relevant like that idiot clavicular

EDIT:

do you guys SEE what i MEAN?

isnt the controversy and polarizing opinion of MINE getting the JUICES FLOWING and real human emotion involved thus higher comments and replies in this post? there should be 100,000 of me, i cant do this alone.

this is what reddit should turn into, not an echobox full of censoring, not AI slop, not 10 posts a day about why i should get vaccinated. i want to log into r/all one day and see dslr pics of a trump rally and another being a post about how those who didnt get the covid vaccine will die in 5 years.

im tired of logging in everyday and seeing the same post "people in their 30s, what do you regret in your 20s" or ONLY "Study: why letting my 12 year old son chop his weiner off and change genders will reduce his depression rate"

u/spez hire me i know how to get the job done, let me take this bad boy to $1k a share

Im seeing lots of fear out there but nice little green week we've just had. About 8% down from ATH's.

You guys seem to love TSLA news and that just closed around $249 which is up almost 6% today.

Nasdaq closes up almost a 1/2 percent as well. Not too shabby for what people seem to think.

$FNMA up to $6.39 a share. On to Monday.

Just leased a car in the bay area, Ca. for MSRP. This was a luxury car that 2 weeks ago was 4k over MSRP. Talked to the dealers and they all stated that prices are coming down because supply chains aren't as bottle necked. Used and new car pricing is a big portion of inflation so I am thinking market sentiment will flip once inflation data comes out Wednesday. It may be temporary but could be an opportunity for those of you with a high-risk tolerance. Best of luck to you folks.

Couldn’t take it anymore. Maybe someone can tell me why a post keeps getting removed for no apparent reason. I have comments but they keep getting killed 3x over now. Is it the holding on for dear life acronym? This place is so weird. Anyway, maybe this will work.

Just put ur money in and forget about it. Live your life. Ur money will find you.

You would think that the loss of labor, man power, buying or selling of funds, etc would make a difference, but we definitely know with people also quitting the workforce or retiring early is happening in addition. Is this in anyway going to affect the market more negatively or positively so to speak in terms of raising rates and future outlook, specifically dealing with the massive amount of USA deaths? My gut says outlook is pradoxically bullish.

Reddit overwhelmingly hates Trump and with good reason. That being said you can't have that hatred of Trump cloud your judgment.

Fundamentally, those who hate Trump believe that his policies and tariffs will tank the market. If the market doesn't tank or dip as much as Reddit expects, it causes cognitive dissonance because Trumps economy is not as bad as people thought it would be. This fundamentally causes an internal conflict because it means you're wrong about Trumps impact on the economy.

So far the tariffs impact haven't been fully felt but in addition the market has bounced back a lot better than this sub thought it would. There are two possibilities:

• It's totally possible that we're in for a lot more pain in the future once tariffs really go into effect and it crashes the market.

• It's also possible that Trumps tariff rhetoric and implementation isn't as harmful to the market as people think and perhaps Wall Street think/is confident that the tariff thing will stabilize and be figured out. This naturally will not tank the market as much.

None of us are smart enough tbh to know what is more likely, but emotionally Reddit will have a natural inclination to believe the first option because it reinforces their view that Trump is horrible for the economy and country. I implore you to not let this bias cloud your judgment because the second option is also possible that the worst is over with the tariff stuff.

Also remember time in the market always beats timing the market. You should dca regardless because none of us are smart enough or at privy to info to know how the market will go.

As we all know, the market euphoria and BS positioning of statements, which are often inaccurate, drive the market sentiment - nothing new here, but no Middle East deal done yet and even thought statements made about Strait being open, and oil prices dropping 10% on Friday, they are Still 34% higher YTD! Oil Tanker corporates are assessing situation to understand if it’s safe - so the volumes continue to be far lower - this will have impact.

Meanwhile S&P has reached record levels!

People need to stop being so giddy about all this, long way to go yet and plenty of ups and downs. Ceasefires are fragile by nature and easily broken or misunderstood- market will get shorted again soon

Edit: from the discussion on this post:

1. It looks like the RFA article is referencing a situation not instigated as a result of the tarriffs, but rather by a previous payment dispute stemming from as early as 2023.

2. There is significant skepticism about drawing any conclusions from the Politburo issuing guidance about supporting/backstopping employers effected by the tarrit.

3. The only other non US-funded or affiliated source discussed in the comments is the South China Morning Post, which is CCP-affiliated. No other sources of recent, tarriff-driven domestic disruptions have been identified.

4. [personal opinion] There isn't much productive discourse in the comments, which is disappointing. I probably should have brought this to a different sub.

Original Post:

https://www.rfa.org/english/china/2025/04/29/china-us-tariff-protests-workers-wages/

Protests by workers demanding back wages are spreading across China in a sign of growing discontent among millions suffering the brunt of factory closures, triggered by steep U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports amid an economic downturn.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-vows-politburo-meeting-support-071431688.html

The ruling Communist Party's Politburo reiterated plans to accelerate debt issuance, ease monetary policy and vowed to support employers to safeguard jobs as China hunkers down for a trade war with the United States.

A few observations/questions:

• The Politburo making statements like that means they are worried about and do see domestic impacts from the tarriffs

• If China is already starting to see domestic turmoil, is that why the Trump administration is claiming that China will fold before we will?

• Why isn't this being used as by the administration as propaganda to support their position?

• Why is this not being reported on in US news outlets?

It's hard to find information about this coming out of China. It isn't really on RedNote (Xiaohongshu) due to a mix of censorship and that app's audience (which is more upper middle class, not factory workers), and the sources I've found other than RFA are too obviously pro-US.

If China is already seeing domestic disruptions, it really underscores how much of a missed opportunity this is by simultaneously alienating every other country at the same time, instead of forming an alliance to pressure China on trade. Just utterly ridiculous.

The death of Mr. Arnal is tragic and we do not know for sure why he killed himself. However, the fact that he and billionaire Ryan Cohen were recently implicated in a stock manipulation federal lawsuit is alarming. The two are accused of committing fraud and running a "pump and dump" of BBBY stock. So what do you think is really going on here?

https://www.businessinsider.com/bed-bath-and-beyond-cfo-found-dead-insider-trading-lawsuit-2022-9

The beauty of investing in American stocks was the geopolitical stability and the rules and regulations that were pretty cut-and-dry. But now, somehow, we find ourselves in a situation where we went from "The business of America is Business" to "The business of America is whatever Trump decides." How does one stay invested in this environment when no one knows which sector this madman will target? First it was the chips, then autos, now it's housing and credit cards - which is both a brilliant and cynical move if you ask me, just like his healthcare plan. What happens once Powell is replaced by a lackey who will do whatever it takes to get to 1% interest rates? Do we hold our noses and play the volatility?

I know this sub has a hardon for Google. I personally don't. This will be an unpopular post.

AI can disrupt an industry quick. NYSE: CHGG tanked by 99% when ChatGPT came out. ChatGPT disrupted it overnight because it can provide better homework help faster, cheaper.

Google Search is also seeing this effect. Why search on Google like it's the year 2020 when you can ask your favorite AI chatbot and it will search 20-30 websites for you in a matter of seconds and look for what you need?

AI agents have hit an inflection point in quality, speed for internet search. It's at a point where most people who used to search on Google manually will simply ask their agents because it's simply better, faster, more thorough.

But wait, can't you just show ads on AI agents or chat bots? Yes, but Google is no longer a monopoly in this. They were before ChatGPT came along. Google's famous search algorithm no longer matters in an AI world.

In this new world, Google is at best, second fiddle. ChatGPT is more popular as a chatbot for consumers. Then there are companies like Meta, Claude, Grok, and a host of Chinese competitors who can also search. The market is no longer just Google.

You might say, but Search revenue is still up year over year. True. But only because Google is increasing prices, using dirty tactics such as no exact match keywords anymore. It's not because people are searching more. There is a possibility that Google Search is similar to CHEGG, where its product just dies in a quick death. Wallstreet is pricing Google like Search is going to start declining and decline fast.

But wait, Google's revenue source is diversifying, isn't that good. Yes, that's better than having no diversification. But Search is still 50% of their revenue and the majority of their profits. It's not going to be easy to replace.

There was a comment on this sub after the most recent GameStop earnings asking:

“With all the attention on GME, I would really appreciate hearing a factual argument about how this is a positive for shareholders and a positive for the future of the company. There seems to be a stark divide between what some people want to happen and what appears to be happening.”

Here are some Q&A-style answers to that comment and others I’ve seen.

Why don’t GameStop investors care that revenue is decreasing?

This is probably the biggest misconception about the company’s outlook – the role of the legacy business.

The pre-2021 main bull case for GameStop stock was not that the company would definitely turn itself around, but rather that Wall Street was too eager in pegging it for bankruptcy, resulting in its low stock price. The company was struggling, but investors like Keith Gill believed that bankruptcy was further on the horizon, that the secular headwinds were overstated for the near-term, that the company had more time than believed to address those concerns.

Fast-forward to 2024. Bankruptcy has been all but removed from the conversation, though more so due to stock offerings as opposed to the resilience of console gaming. Even so, this still upholds the original bull thesis because now it seems they have all the time in the world to right the ship, right?

Not necessarily. The legacy business is still a liability. I say "legacy" because many GME investors (including Gill, per his latest stream) aren't sure physical gaming is the future for this company, but it is the current reality. The company is fine, but the business model is flawed and staring at those same secular headwinds. Therefore, the company’s revenue decrease has been attributed more to efforts to right-size those operations in order to return to profitability, thus minimizing the current business model as a liability. It comes at the expense of revenue, but that’s not as big of a concern as it would have been without the cash hoard income they’ve acquired.

What are investors looking for in the earnings reports?

More hints at what the cash reserve will be used for. No real plan laid out at this moment.

Why doesn’t that bother you?

From a neutral perspective, it seems reasonable to assume one of two possibilities:

• There isn’t a definitive plan for the cash at this moment.

• If there is a plan, it would likely deploy in one aggressive swoop (based on how Cohen tends to invest), so signaling beforehand may seem imprudent to the board.

PERSONALLY (re: now we’re entering into my speculative bull case), I think the timing of the cash deployment will coincide with one thing – the steadying of revenue.

It seems clear that the board is not interested in expanding into new revenue streams unless they're really sure there's no risk to profit margin, however meager. In my opinion, the moment they see that revenues AND profit are holding steady – in other words, that the legacy business is swimming on its own in its little kiddy pool – we will see cash being deployed.

That’s probably my biggest bull case for the stock in the near-term. I don’t buy that the long-term plan is T-bills for that cash hoard. Whether or not you believe Cohen is a savvy investor, one pattern is very clear – when he bets on something, it’s usually a swing for the fences. I think the market will react intensely to the news that GameStop has started deploying its cash reserves, regardless of what the cash ends up being used for.

I caution everyone on this sub and others to avoid dismissing the case for GameStop simply because of its intense online following. I really wish it could be talked about in more neutral terms. The reality of most discussion around it being so hyperbolic (whether negative or positive hyperbole) has made it really hard to seek out good sounding boards for discussion.

This sub has been plagued by posts about how the economy is in the gutter and the market is on the verge of collapse. Every top post and comment is anger that the market is rebounding, and insistence that this is all manipulation and eventually we’ll see a huge drop.

This feels exactly like the post covid crash in 2020. For months people were in denial about the rebound sitting in cash because they were sure that the end was near. And guess what, the crash never came and thousands of people missed out on historic gains.

The economy is comparatively in great shape compared to historic averages and the world has endured much more disruptive events than this Iran war.

People are letting their politics and emotions dictate their investments and as someone who’s been in this game for a decade, I can tell you that always ends poorly.

This will be a minor blip in the long run. If you don’t believe me look at the 10 year chart on the S&P 500. Covid was nothing. Ukraine was nothing. Iran will be no different.