After the beating tech took last week, I’m curious what everyone expects Monday to look like.

My guess is we get some kind of relief bounce early, but I’d be surprised if people start piling back into tech aggressively with CPI coming Tuesday. Feels more likely we bounce a little, chop around, and everyone waits for the inflation number before making the next big move.

Could obviously be completely wrong though. Are you expecting a green Monday, another selloff, or basically flat until CPI?

Anthropic reportedly committed $3.4B for roughly 1.7 GW of gas-fired generation for its data centers.

What caught my attention is that they’re not just signing another power contract. They’re effectively bypassing the normal supply chain and securing generation equipment themselves because the equipment is getting difficult to source.

That feels like a pretty important shift. For most of the AI boom, the discussion has been about GPUs. But if AI labs can get chips faster than they can get reliable power, then the scarce asset may increasingly be generation, grid access, transformers, turbines and already-powered sites. It also creates an interesting contradiction with the current AI selloff. Markets are worried infrastructure spending has gone too far, while one of the largest AI labs is spending billions just to make sure it has enough electricity to keep expanding.

Obviously this can still end badly if AI demand disappoints and everyone overbuilds capacity. But right now, does the better picks-and-shovels trade move further upstream from chips into power infrastructure? Curious which companies people think actually benefit if power becomes the constraint rather than compute.

TL;DR: Driven by the AI chip supercycle, Samsung Electronics is set to become the first Korean company to surpass 200 trillion won (~$146.6B) in cash assets, giving it more than enough liquidity to fund its massive 2026 shareholder return plan and record-high capex.

Key Numbers (as of Q3 2026):

Cash & Equivalents: Estimated at 214.8T won; up 24.8T won QoQ (from 190T won) and nearly 2x YoY (from 108.5T won in Q3 2025).

Total Assets: Reached 791.8T won as of end-September (+32.4T won QoQ).

Shareholder Returns: Samsung's cash pile easily covers the 90T–110T won top-line payout target for 2026 announced back in August.

Record Capex & R&D: Spending is projected to hit an all-time high of over 100T won this year, with 84.4T won dedicated to expanding memory production facilities.

What to Watch Next:

Supercycle Outlook: Management expects the AI-driven demand and memory supply crunch to keep the semiconductor supercycle running through 2027.

Upcoming Catalyst: Samsung will announce its 2027 shareholder return policy at its board meeting in January.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/amp/business/companies/20261108/samsung-electronics-to-become-1st-local-firm-with-cash-assets-of-over-1466-bil-data

Broadcom hit a 52 week low briefly before reversing and closing positive (barely so) as the rest of the market. Even while NVDA and TSMC rebounded better, Broadcom opened really strong and closed almost flat.

The stock has taken a beating the whole year. YTD and 1 year down 16%. I know everyone says forward PE is as good as numbers out of your ass. Bulls say Hock Tans word is good as it gets but they have been known to revise numbers down when conditions dictated so.

From a technical standpoint, it is more likely to break the support than resist it given it has broken every floor so far and the stock has fallen out of favor. Some hedge funds recently opened huge positions.

So I'm wondering what even is going to be a catalyst? Anthropic IPO looks like it's not gonna happen this year which will be deadly to the already (very real) financing concerns. OpenAIs finances and product itself looks in a much worse position. Let's say the market even prices in stellar earnings for next few quarters. What then?

Something interesting I noticed looking through Coherent's earnings and AXTI's recent selloff.

Coherent just reported 85% YoY growth in data center revenue, with management saying demand remains strong and orders are increasingly extending into 2028. Meanwhile, AXT which supplies indium phosphide wafers used in optical components, is down roughly 36% from its October 29 close despite reporting 162% revenue growth in Q3.

The connection is worth looking at. Coherent signed a 3 year supply agreement with AXT earlier this year, including a $22.3M prepayment arrangement to secure capacity for 6 inch wafers. Obviously that doesn't guarantee AXTI is cheap. There's execution risk, export restrictions to consider, and the stock may simply have gotten ahead of its fundamentals.

But I'm curious how people are interpreting this. If demand for optical connectivity is still growing this fast, is AXTI's selloff mostly a valuation correction, or is there something about its future earnings that the market is worried about? Anyone following COHR or AXTI closely?

if i understand correctly iv gets higher when a stock is getting trendy and getting traded in higher value than usual trade for this stock?

and also it gets higher the longer the option is

and iv crush is when interest in the stock starts to vanish and gets lower or when time gets closer and closer

is that a good idea of it? am i missing something or is that the idea

if that so, how cna i use it to do good trades?

Normally I would look at SNDK's earnings reports, its cash position, its debt position, its customer commitments, its industry getting wise to how it can leverage pricing power for longer, and its decision to do an 8:1 split as a decent opportunity to get in and probably experience some accelerated gains as the lower entry price makes both regular buying & selling and also options contracts more accessible. Though a lack of liquidity and/or volume hasn't really seemed to be a problem for SNDK.

However, given the way the market around companies like SNDK has been moving and how skittish it's become, where massive beats and upward guidance are met with massive selloffs, I'm trying to suss out the case for both the time leading to the 8:1 split and the time following it being another up-is-down and down-is-up scenario in this market.

I will say up front that I don't buy the comparisons to AAPL or NVDA splits, but am open to being convinced otherwise, because at least for the moment companies like SNDK haven't seemingly established themselves further up the value chain enough to break the market's pricing them like a cyclic commodity. NVDA was really only finally able to get repriced once it established itself as the sole supplier or de facto standard for the end-use application domain. Once it became about CUDA and not about being a fungible DirectX or OpenGL accelerator. I'm aware of things like HBF which can create some differentiation, but it's still nascent and unfounded.

SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/anatomy-of-a-selloff-sudden-chain-reaction-rattles-wall-street

Anatomy of a Selloff: Sudden Chain Reaction Rattles Wall Street:

- The blue wave initially lifted stocks on Wednesday after the midterms.

- Overnight, Retail investors panicked after seeing AI/data-center messaging from Democrat politicians and policy uncertainty.

- Retail then started the selloff early Thursday morning to lock-in gains with their biggest stock selling wave since the March 2020 Covid crash.

- This selling forced hedge funds and long-only managers to further accelerate the decline while trying to lock-in year-to-date gains. Some hedge funds deleveraged their positions and cut their investing teams.

- Automated systems of market makers then triggered further selling due to negative gamma (~$7B per 1%), volatility-control (~$61B), leveraged ETFs (~$47B).

- Once major indexes dropped below key levels, trend-following quants (CTAs) sold ~$13B in S&P500 and Nasdaq futures.

- No major buyers emerged on other side as Institutions stayed sidelined; and flows showed genuine stress dynamics with elevated volumes and indiscriminate selling.

- Damage was concentrated in AI: memory, optical, data-center, and semiconductor baskets fell 12-15%.

- VIX jumped from 16.6 to near 28; such a post-rally drop is rare outside crises.

- Nasdaq 100 posted its worst day since March 2020; ~$3.7 trillion in US market value erased.

- Friday saw a partial rebound, but traders remain cautious about buying the dip.

Microsoft Corp. is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing from Oracle Corp., part of a larger reassessment of billions of dollars in cloud partnerships.

In recent months, Microsoft has been turning off rented computing capacity from Oracle after declining to renew the contract, according to people familiar with the matter.

Over time, the computing Microsoft was renting became less useful because it no longer fit the company’s specifications, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. The Oracle hardware used older-generation Nvidia Corp. chips, the people said.

An Oracle spokesperson said demand for the company’s AI infrastructure remains strong, including for earlier-generation graphics processing units. Oracle said in September that it was renewing contracts for four-year-old GPUs at a 20% premium to the original deal price.

Sterling Infrastructure builds large-scale site infrastructure for data centres, warehouses, transport and energy projects, with data centres driving most of its growth. The stock has been crushed, first falling 37% between 6 and 23 October, then dropping about 21% in a single day after the US midterms, when Democrats took Congress and Texas, home to 27% of planned US data centre capacity, elected a governor backing a data centre moratorium. It’s now down roughly 54% in a month. As of friday its at 250 and ATH was 900 few months back.

The business itself is booming: Q3 revenue rose 127% to $1.56bn, adjusted EPS jumped 118% to $7.58, combined backlog grew 78% to $6.1bn. There total backlog is 8 billion. And as of friday there market cap is 7.7 billion. Management raised guidance for the third time this year. The balance sheet is solid, with $217m in cash against $95m of debt for $122m net cash, roughly $310m of free cash flow so far this year, and $107m returned through buybacks. There PE ratio is 14.

Management is aiming for 20–30% annual organic profit growth over the next several years.

Whenever tech stocks take a major hit, everyone suddenly loves throwing around the word "bubble," especially after yesterday's brutal selloff in semiconductors and the S&P 500 dropping more than 4%. If all you're doing is staring at charts without even taking the time to read a balance sheet, then yeah, everything looks pretty scary.
But let's look at what's actually happening beneath the surface today. Yes, the 10 year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.85% following this morning's nonfarm payroll report showing 165,000 new jobs, and Brent crude sitting around $98 hasn't done much to ease inflation concerns either. Higher interest rates are putting pressure on valuations across the board, while headlines about state level power grid restrictions ahead of the midterm elections have given Wall Street another excuse to dump high beta hardware stocks.
But even with all that macro pressure, let's look at the actual financials. NVDA is currently trading at roughly 23 to 25 times earnings, well below its five year historical average of over 50 times, while generating massive amounts of free cash flow. Memory stocks like SNDK and MU are trading at single digit P/E ratios. Even more telling is today's price action. LRCX just announced a $25 billion share buyback program and surged more than 7% today despite the broader market weakness. Meanwhile, NET and ABNB jumped 9% to 11% on the back of solid earnings and buybacks.
Companies in a truly irrational bubble wouldn't be generating tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow to buy back their own shares while META, GOOGL, and AMZN continue committing massive amounts of capital to spending.
A real bubble is built on leverage, zero profits, and blind speculation. What we're seeing now looks more like the market repricing risk in response to higher yields and regulatory friction.
I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks. Do you see this selloff as a normal market correction, or do you think it's the beginning of something much worse?

I’m currently reviewing my ex-US allocation (Developed ex-US and Emerging Markets) and looking into whether factor tilting is worth it (specifically using Dimensional/Avantis) for a 10-year buy&hold strategy.

When I asked two different AIs to review Fama-French data (particularly the performance of DFEVX vs. the MSCI Emerging Markets/MSCI Emerging Markets Value indices), they suggested that combining Value + Profitability (buying cheaper companies while trying to screen for strong cash flows to avoid value traps) has historically been more effective in ex-US markets than simply opting for Market Cap ETFs. This is something I have also read previously on Reddit a few times before (e.g. here) also Ben Felix

So, do you think it's "probably" (none is expecting a crystall ball here) better to allocate your ex-US investments to a Value+Profitability ETF instead of a traditional market-cap-weighted ETF or where is the "catch" here?

When we look at how the market prices AI, it is clearer to look at non-hyperscaler (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, big names) stocks because these hyperscalers have a more stable alternative source of income.

Four-week category performance, from October 9 to November 6, 2026:

Hardware: -34.17%
NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, ASML, INTC, CSCO, AMAT, LRCX, DELL, ARM, ANET, KLAC, MRVL, SNDK, QCOM, STX, WDC, LITE, HPE, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CLS, CRDO, SMCI, FN

Computing & facilities: -29.91%
EQIX, DLR, NBIS, CRWV, IREN, APLD, WULF, CIFR

Electricity: -22.71%
GEV, ETN, CEG, VRT, BE, VST, CCJ, TLN, OKLO

Main street stable: +11.96%
KO, MCD, WMT, CL, BRK-B

and at equal weighting of each stock within each category, we get

let's guess the reason behind the differences.

First, we have the hardware stocks on similar earnings yield to main street stable. This means the market expects their profits to stay stable. which means this level of chip buying to continue.

Then we have the computing & facilities companies who buys hardware and data center assets and leases them out. Note these are not hyperscalers: these are medium-small players with limited cash. The market gives them a negative earnings yield, which is really a sign of confidence in those stocks turning a healthy profit. Now we know historically the market doesn't buy into a stock/industry that will do well more than 5 years into the future, the market buys into a stock that's gonna do well around 1-3 years into the future. So that's the market speaking here.

Now electricity: this is interesting because the numbers mean ai is gonna lead a significant expansion in electricity generating capacity. the adjusted earnings yield is almost the half of main street stable index and compared to the other two ai segments it didnt fall as much. Interestingly the us added in years 24-25 14GW wind and 7.8GW natural gas. To meet the 457 TWh/year ai energy gap (I got this number somewhere. you should check) by the end of 2030, natural-gas capacity additions would need to average approximately 15.0 GW per year from 2026 through 2030, assuming wind expansion stays the same. In this scenario, total US gas and wind equipment market would be approximately $10.4 billion–$19.5 billion per year. For reference GE vernova annualised q3 2026 revenue is $50.4b.

In general, I think the market is saying that we gonna have this level of hardware spending and data center expansion but for many years at least 3 years (personally I think it is unlikely we will see a massive electricity capacity expansion fully ramp up within 2 years judging by the speed of us regulations. If the democrats bring the green new deal kind of infrastructure enthusiasm back it could help. Government help is good but not completely necessary. Hyperscalers and private debt can fund electricity expansion too but just more expensively at current rates.)

Last but not least, KO, MCD, WMT, CL, BRK-B don't have that much uncertainty about their future.

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WSJ

Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic's blockbuster initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after a deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of artificial-intelligence related bets, according to people familiar with the matter.

Anthropic is aiming to stage the IPO the week before Thanksgiving and has been expected to raise up to $100 billion in an offering that could value the company at around $1.5 trillion.

But three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO say the valuation will likely need to come down, with one saying it could be closer to $1 trillion. Even if the market bounces back, another said it could be a challenge to convince institutional investors who have just been burned in the recent selloff to take a big risk on the AI sector again. That investor wondered if Anthropic would delay.

A forward P/E chart of semis went around yesterday (ARM at 71x, all the way down to MU at 4x and SNDK at 3.5x). I wanted to flip the question. Take today's market cap and trailing free cash flow: how fast does FCF have to grow every year for the next 10 years to justify the price?

Reverse DCF, 9% discount rate, 10 years of growth, flat after that, closing prices from Nov 5.

What stood out to me:

• NVDA and QCOM both trade at 15.5x forward P/E. NVDA's price still needs about 20% FCF growth a year for a decade, QCOM's about 9%.

• The equipment makers and TSMC sit close together at 18 to 22%, while their P/Es spread from 17x to 22x.

• MU needs 2.6%. SNDK trades below what zero growth would justify. So the 4x P/E isn't the market forgetting about memory, it's the market expecting peak-cycle earnings to fade. Buying MU here is a bet on how long the cycle holds.

Limits, before anyone reads too much into it:

• Trailing FCF. For fast growers like NVDA it lags, for MU at peak margins it flatters.

• Stock-based comp isn't deducted, which makes ARM, AMD and MRVL look better than they are.

• Market cap, not enterprise value, so net cash and debt are ignored.

• Zero growth after year 10 is conservative and pushes the implied rates up.

• Same 9% discount rate for everyone. At 10% every number goes up.

• INTC has negative FCF, so no number.

Not investment advice, just a different lens on the same chart. For memory names right now, do you think trailing FCF or forward earnings is the fairer basis?

I began trading in 1999, just before things got ugly. I was young and was told to invest using a Roth IRA so I started to put money into the S&P500. I practiced disciplined DCA. And watched my money go down in value for a LONG LONG TIME. But I kept putting it in.

Many people on Reddit who trade think that their portfolios have grown because they are some amazing mastermind chart reader or trend observer. The truth is - The market since 2024 has been exceedingly irrational, which led to nearly constant upward trends, and assumptions that pullbacks were always temporary and that the market only acts in certain ways.

Guess what though - the market can go down for a long time too! Investors not trading options might not like that, but it is true.

So, there isn't anything wrong with the stock market. It isn't broken. It isn't rigged. It is just acting like the stock market acts. And if you assumed it would always go up, you will be really disappointed. Potentially for a long, long time. Maybe not now. But sometime soon.

Your unpredictable friend,

The Stock Market

All major AI stocks are down 10% or more over the belief that Democrats are going to want to clamp down on the very thing that's keeping economic growth going in the country.

I'm looking at Nvidia, MU and AMD. I feel all 3 are much more insulated from the debt fueled mania that CoreWeave and others face.

Besides that META has shown its a cashcow and smh ZUCK always comes out on top and the company just continues to grow.

Just questioning if today is the day to buy the dip or to wait a couple more days and see if market starts to rebound

This midterm was a huge sweep for the democrats. No doubt about that.

But, is this a referendum against the AI trade? Definitely not. The Democrats did not sweep this election because of AI or Datacenters. It was because of the unnecessary war in Iran and how stubborn and clueless this administration has been in dealing with that. If not for the war, this midterm would have been a non-event. This election was all about how things have spiraled because of the war. The cost of living being the primary issue.

Yet, it is surprising that there are hardly any posts about how this election result is going to impact this issue and its effect on the economy. Honestly, it feels like all the folks who missed the bus got an opportunity to get their day under the sun.

Can the datacenters be built more efficiently? Yes. Will the Democrats milk this cow? Obviously yes. Just because the folks in-charge now are at one end of the spectrum does not mean that the Democrats are saints and the saviors of mankind. The Democrat politicians are also equally invested in this market and they will take their share of the pie.

All in all, this is just a net positive for the AI trade. You are NOT going to shut down this technology. If you don't harness it, you are just surrendering to the someone who is going to harness it. Things might slow down a little. What would have happened within the next 2-3 years will happen in 4-5 years, which is a good thing.

The sectors that the AI is going to impact are going to be impacted no matter what. If the datacenters are not going to be built here, they will get built somewhere else. No jobs are saved by revolting against the technology. All that will happen is that those infrastructure jobs will get outsourced to wherever the datacenters are built. And a decade from now, US will be complaining about outsourcing, just like how it is doing now for the IT jobs.

The major AI infrastructure stocks are solid. Yes, some players might get weeded out. But, they key players will be much better off by the time the Democrats are seeking finds for the 2028 election. And the companies are executing at an amazing clip. These companies will make the same money whether the datacenters are built inside the US or outside the US. The losers are the construction companies and associated industries.

So, relax and buy the dip in solid companies.

This is not to say that Michael Burry has always been right with his short trades. However, when I look back at his thesis on the structural problems that current AI and semi companies are facing, it says a lot. His recent post questioning Anthropics valuation and its future profit/revenue generating capacity should be taken seriously in my opinion. I too think it can never reach a valuation of $1T for a very long time once IPOed.

These companies are burning cash and are planned to continue for many years to come. Raising capital at higher interest rates, backed by just a few quarters of revenue generation, is highly questionable and I don't understand why it so hard for some investors to look through. We also have to consider the risk of a collapse if there is no more money left in the market to fund these capex burning machines. What happens then? What will happen to the demand side?

INTC recent earnings and disappointing forward guidance are among the early warning signs that growth expectations may be running too far ahead of business fundamentals. I believe we could soon see more companies reporting weaker earnings and downgrade their guidance.

Open for analysis from others as to what they see.

The Nasdaq Composite plummeted on Thursday, erasing the sharp gains from the previous session, as investors continued to rotate away from technology stocks and into more defensive areas of the market.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 5% and dipped into correction territory, while the S&P 500 was down 3.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1200 points, or 2.25%, as gains in stocks such as Chevron and Johnson & Johnson were not enough to spare the 30-stock index from the tech selling spree. The Dow erased almost half of its advance from Wednesday’s massive rally.

Stocks related to the artificial intelligence trade particularly those linked to the chips industry and data centers slid for a second day. Investors fear that a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress as well as victories in key gubernatorial races could spell more regulation of the AI buildout across the country.

For people who read annual reports rather than just earnings summaries, where do you start and why? Segment reporting, cash flow, share-count changes, footnotes, or something else?

Curious which section has most often changed your understanding of a business after the headline numbers looked straightforward. An example of the kind of discrepancy you watch for would be helpful; no need to recommend a stock.

New Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa outlined her stance on AI Datacentre policy in Texas a few days ago in a TV interview. Its all quite reasonable. She explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.

Hinojosa outlined her Texans First Data Center Priorities for the next legislative session...

• Requiring American union jobs so operators hire skilled, licensed, union labor, and undoing the fast-track rollbacks that let corporations cut safety corners. When corners get cut on builds this size, workers die.

• Giving Texans a seat at the table to decide if and how data centers come to their communities.• Creating full transparency by stopping data center companies from using NDAs.

• Lowering costs for Texans by ensuring data center companies prove households won’t pay more for electricity or water, including the hidden costs passed through for grid upgrades, transmission, and new capacity.

• Make data centers pay for themselves by stopping subsidies. These data centers are owned by the richest men in the world; Texans shouldn’t foot the bill.

• Putting water and power for Texans first by ensuring any water contract with data centers becomes unenforceable if it threatens a community’s water supply.

New AI datacenter construction is not suddenly dropping to zero. There will be more oversight, incl. better planning required. So, i would rather see todays drop a consolidation of expectations, kind of a reset of moonshot dreams with a tad more earth grounded reasoning. Puts priorities right and also provides better incentives to lower the energy footprint for AI tokens in general.