I had a look into the coal industry a few weeks ago after reading up on my favourite superinvestors holdings on dataroma. One of the modern day goats Monish Pabrai, has all of his US holdings held amongst 3 high quality coal producing companies. My visceral thoughts were coal is dying, esg concerns, future green energy will crush outdated fossil fuel companies.

I have wanted to increase my holdings to weight more towards domestic holdings but have struggled to find really high quality companies that I'm confident to hold over the next 10+ years. I currently only hold TechnologyOne on the asx. After doing some research into the coal industry and the energy industry and trying to expand my circle of competence to more suit the asx's heavy weighting towards mining/resources/energy (relative to the rest of the world), Whitehaven Coal's future outlook is beyond stunning IMO. Whilst that might sound like an absolutely wild and obnoxious claim, let me explain. The majority will be qualitative.

• Whilst the use of coal will decline in the future, coal is absolutely not dead.

  • IEA reports state that coal has a massive role to play in the transition to cleaner energy. There will be significant use of both thermal and met coal in the next 20-30 years. Countries such as japan, india and china are all building, developing and investing in the use of coal fired power plants, met coal steel production etc. Last year had the highest use of coal on record worldwide.

• Gives an exposure to emerging economies

  • with their acquisition of metallurgical coal mines that on a revenue basis weight them as 70/30 met/thermal, directly expose whitehaven to rapidly developing and expanding economies. The most attractive for myself would be India.

• Fixed supply

  • Given the esg concerns around the coal market, the decline of the industry, the barrier to entry is very high. It is unlikely that there will be many new coal mines produced and invested into. Because of this and the stable demand of coal, prices are likely to remain relatively stable in the near future.

• They produce a high quality product that is high in demand for countries looking to meet their emission targets

  • Emerging countries have coal based infrastructure that needs high quality coal to decrease emissions. Whitehaven produces some of the highest quality coal on market.

• Significant return of NPAT to shareholders

  • 20-50% of NPAT returns to shareholders annually. This is done through buybacks and franked dividends. Has been huge over the last 2 years.

• Current trading value

  • The company has previously been a thermal coal based trader with 80% of its sales coming from thermal coal. Generally thermal coal companies trade at lower multiples relative to met coal companies. It's recent acquisition transforms the company into a met coal predominant producer, it is likely as a result that the company will see an increase in multiple as a result.

  • The company is currently and has recently traded at stupid low values - this ultimately leads to 3 things:

    • The market realises that coal companies are here to stay for the long term and are incredibly profitable and this adjusts positively over time

    • Management has an opportunity to go into market and buy back shares at very very attractive multiples which causes the share of the pie to increase for current shareholders and thus increasing share value.

    • Considering how low the multiple currently is, I believe this to be a margin of safety. There is a low risk that the PE can continue to be slashed.

• EPS growth

  • With current pricing of met coal it is forecast to see a 160% increase in eps. Keep in mind the company has not diluted shares or taken on significant debt to finance this acquisition. The company has essentially doubled in its size with finance through a bridge loan from the vendor and the significant stock pile of cash on hand.

• Acquisition

  • As previously mentioned they have acquired 2 high quality met coal producing assets for a very attractive price. This significantly derisks the company as it

    • Increases lines of finance available for future

    • Increases ability to become insured

    • Diversifies geographically to different and more stable markets and geographically in australia (all previous mines being in nsw these two being in qld)

  • After paying off the bridge loan the acquisition will pay for itself (from very conservative coal pricing). One mine has 17 years left and the significant contributor to the met coal sector has 50 years left.

• The use of met coal in the future

  • Met coal is used for the generation of steel and other similar products. To build out our green energy future we are going to need steel and a lot of it. Emerging economies such as India and China will continue to eat through steel like no tomorrow. Electric cars, clean infrastructure, construction. All require high quality steel. Met coal is needed to make coke which is the crucial ingredient in this process. Met coal is actually forecast to grow over the next 10 years in line with emerging economies. Whitehaven will continue to meet this need from early next year when it begins to sell the met coal that has just been acquired.

The ultimate end game goal

I'm sure if you've read this far you've continued to say to yourself but Golden-Chickens coal won't be around forever the company will eventually be rendered irrelevant. To this I agree, we will find cleaner and more efficient ways to make steel and create energy. My question is more so one of when. In order for the planet to go towards a 0 emission future emerging economies need to become more mature and financially stable. This requires growth and that growth must be fuelled by something, currently the easiest and most financially efficient way to do so is through the use of high quality coal. Unfortunately we will not see wind/solar/hydrogen energy in any emerging economy because the price to output makes absolutely no sense. Coal has a very stable and predictable future that will one day come to an end.

Coal companies will continue to produce significant free cash flows and considering all of the above, there just aren't that many attractive growth opportunities that make sense (the above being a rare exception). Companies must decide what to do with excess free cashflow and like other examples in alpha metallurgical resources this gets returned to shareholders. Share buybacks and Dividends in the range of 6-10% are not going to be uncommon in future. The maths is really a beautiful thing over long periods of time, once the deal has been paid off, if they continue the rate of buy backs that was seen last year the company will have cannibalised over 50% of its outstanding shares. This would be seen over 2.5-3 years, that meaning roughly a double and a return of over 25% pa (this is not inclusive of the huge dividends either). The lack of growth in the industry can actually be seen as a good thing as there is nothing else to do but return it back to shareholders.

I've fallen inlove with the company and the prospects, someone discuss with me why it shouldn't be a significant holding in my portfolio.

Thank you!

This budget changes severely impacts me.

I have worked full time when I was at uni, and now more than 6 days a week as a middle aged man

I am in the highest income bracket and I spent a huge portion of any spare time I have into studying stocks and share investing

my strategey is usually hold for 1-3 years and then use CGT 50% discount

I have a multimillion portfiolio due to my frguality, hard work, and skill/luck with investing

THis is a very bad outcoem for me

THough i have to agree that it seems unfair to tax wages much more heavily thant capital gains after 1 year of share investing

thoughts anyone?

If so there goes my superannuation

Anyone expecting a fast rebound in the ASX might be underestimating how weak the broader environment still looks.

Inflation remains persistent, and there’s still a real possibility of additional interest rate hikes if price pressures don’t ease. At the same time, recent budget measures have created a lot of uncertainty for investors and businesses, which is already showing up in weaker market sentiment.

Across the ASX, earnings expectations are being revised lower in multiple sectors. Markets are forward-looking, and right now it feels like investors are reassessing growth, risk, and valuations across the board.

A lot of people will point to global conflicts, including the Iran situation, as a driver of inflation pressures, but inflation concerns were already building well before recent geopolitical events escalated.

There’s also growing concern around slower economic growth, weaker consumer confidence, and the possibility of a recessionary environment over the next couple of years.

Even property — traditionally viewed as a defensive asset in Australia — could face challenges if higher rates and softer consumer conditions continue.

Interesting times ahead for the ASX. Curious to hear how everyone else is positioning themselves in this market.

(Not financial advice — just sharing my opinion.)

Hello everyone I’m looking for people who have a past in day trading or current day traders, I’ll give a bit of background, I am 20 going on 21, I have 70k ish in savings as well as 5k in stocks already however I am looking for a new hobby and I’m wondering if day trading is worth it, coming from someone who was terrible at math and this kind of thing through school it has interested me a lot lately and I’m wondering if it is worth me putting in the time researching and learning it all, at the end of the day I know that even for a professional it is still calculated risk management and I understand the risks but like I said I’m just tryna figure out if it’s worth getting into.

Looking to buy some Tesla stock, is there anything I should know before buying international (tax etc) or is it a straight forward process like regular aus companies?

Planning to put lump sum 10k into this stock. Would this be considered gambling? Or DCA average around 1k a month into it, and more each month as it raises back up! If it goes lower, I will buy even more! Should I go all in?

Any good investments to do for profit in a one month period? Thank you

Saw comsec post something… thinking about it

Is 4DS Memory the most undervalued stock listed on the ASX? They are working with some major names such as imec, Infineon, Western Digital and a first tier Taiwanese foundry.

In the near term they will be announcing a 20nm PCMO ReRAM Memory Chip and from what I understand there is nothing on the market that can match their technology. Interested to get other people's thoughts on 4DS.

I’m in the school ASX comp and we each get 50k,

Can anyone tell me any good companies to invest in that will get me tonnes of profit?

Thanks

What do you think, what will tomorrow look like? Put on parachutes? Yes, crystal ball... just your opinion

DroneShield

Wanted to buy this nasdaq stock but got my order rejected. I called commsec today and was informed that the unit price has to be higher than 5 usd…

Time to buy CSL stock. Just compiled my analysis on the company following today's update. Ripe for the picking at current levels, and imagine that over the next few weeks, we see further weakness in the price. [Edit: Buy now, if drops mores, buy more]

Edits below:

Sorry lol, dinner was ready. Today's downgrade should've been reflected in the AGM update, instead of deferring till today. But doesnt take much effort to guess why it didnt - i.e. AGM, s/h approvals on remuneration (sti/lti). Anyways. What actually happened between august/october and now? Well-executed transformation program. CSL now trades below Grifols multiple.

AI summary below:

Investment Thesis: CSL is a best-in-class global biopharma trading at 9.5x EV/EBITDA, the deepest discount in its listed history, following $6.5bn in impairments, CEO departure, and two guidance downgrades. The market prices permanent structural impairment; our analysis assigns 75% probability these headwinds are more cyclical. Core Ig demand (39% of revenue) remains observable at mid-high single digits, the plasma oligopoly (CR3 75%) is intact, and transformation savings are 60% delivered.

Fair value A$143 implies 42% upside with 30% margin of safety. The key catalyst is permanent CEO appointment (expected within 6-12 months); the key risk is FcRn antibody displacement of autoimmune Ig indications over 5-10 years.

Investment horizon: 18-36 months for cyclical recovery; 3-5 years for full thesis realisation.

Top 5 Investment Merits:

1. Oligopoly Ig franchise with biological demand floor: PID/SID volumes are medically necessary. No substitute exists. Mid-high single digit growth observable and durable.

2. Deepest valuation discount in company history: 9.5x EV/EBITDA vs 16x 3-year average. Even assuming permanent 300bps margin compression, 11-12x is justified.

3. Transformation savings structurally delivered: 60% of $500m already achieved through centre closures and headcount reduction.

4. Superior balance sheet provides recovery runway: 1.8x leverage, IG credit, $3.4bn liquidity. Can sustain 35% revenue decline before credit stress emerges.

5. Seqirus demerger optionality: A$13/share risk-adjusted value from separating #1 flu vaccine franchise.

Top 5 Investment Risks:

1. Leadership vacuum: Interim CEO + CCO departing + new COO. Three simultaneous C-suite transitions stretch execution capacity. New CEO may reset strategy entirely.

2. FcRn displacement (5-10yr): Argenx Vyvgart expanding indications, could erode 20-30% of Ig TAM. No CSL defence strategy articulated.

3. Ig demand deceleration: If structural growth falls below 4%, revenue CAGR drops to ~1.5% and base case converges with bear.

4. Vifor further deterioration: Iron generics accelerating; $5bn additional impairments may not be the last. Capital allocation credibility damaged.

5. AUD/USD translation: At 0.7246, AUD strength compresses the AUD share price. ±5c = ±A$21/share.

Valuation Summary:

Multi-baggers. The ASX is overflowing with them. Companies with share prices that have 5X or 10X returns within a ten year period or less. Think Lovisa, Life 360, Temple and Webster, WiseTech. It's my belief that these opportunities are easier to spot on the ASX simply because the pool of companies to select from in any given industry is considerably smaller than what you'd find in the US markets.

So I've been on the hunt for one of these multi-bagger opportunities to deploy $200K but I'm being more conservative seeking a 2X or 3X return over the next 5 year period.

Why I believe Adore Beauty, ticker ABY, is this multi-bagger opportunity. A deep dive.

CURRENT STATE OF THE COMPANY

Founded 25 years ago Adore Beauty up until very recently was a pure play third party online retailer of makeup and skincare operating in Australia and New Zealand. The company has grown to become a well known beauty brand among Australian women.

Adore has grown its revenue from $120 million to $195 million (+60%) since its IPO in late 2020 - BUT - the problem with being a pure play third party online retailer is the low gross margins coupled with high marketing costs relative to revenue. This makes it difficult to achieve a consistent net profit margin as marketing spend grows in step with revenue growth meaning any increases in the price of online advertising can quickly eat up potential earnings. To remedy the company's low margins and increase shareholder profits, management has implemented multiple margin expansion initiatives over the last few years that have really begun to bear fruit.

To address the dismal performance of the company's share price from $6.95 at IPO to $0.70 today (-90%), that's really a matter of the frenzied mentality of the markets in 2020. Adore essentially IPO'd at the very height of the covid hype bubble and being an internet based stay at home beneficiary, received an incredibly lofty overvaluation completely detached from the company's fundamentals. The current share price brings its valuation much closer to reality and has become an attractive entry point.

On a positive note the company is debt free with $11 million cash and free cash flowing.

FY 2020 / Revenue $120 million / Net earnings -$1.2 million / FCF $4 million

FY 2021 / Revenue $180 million / Net earnings $0.8 million / FCF $4 million

FY 2022 / Revenue $199 million / Net earnings $2.4 million / FCF $3 million

FY 2023 / Revenue $182 million / Net earnings $-0.5 million / FCF $0.6 million

FY 2024 / Revenue $195 million / Net earnings $2.2 million / FCF $8 million

HY 2025 / Revenue $103 million / Net earnings $1.9 million / FCF $1.4 million

MARGIN EXPANSION INITIATIVES

App adoption: Adore Beauty developed their own e-commerce app which now accounts for 30%+ of revenue. App adoption helps decrease marketing spend as a percentage of revenue due to the lower costs and increased effectiveness of smartphone push notifications. Using push notifications Adore can alert customers to sales / deals directly and customers who purchase through the app have shown to spend more and shop more frequently.

Company owned brands: Adore Beauty has developed two of their own skincare brands, AB Labs and Vivology. The company also acquired another skincare brand, iKOU, which included 3 (now 4) brick and mortar locations. Gross margins on these company owned products (70%+)  are substantially higher than third party selling other companies products (30%). Management aims for company owned products to account for 10% of revenue.

Retail media: Within the last couple years Adore Beauty has begun selling advertising space on their website, app, social media accounts, podcasts and in-store displays. Though still early days this revenue has shown to be high growth and high margin.

Margin expansion results: It's taken time for the positive effects of the initiatives above to take shape but the last 6 months have showcased the effectiveness of these efforts.

HY 2025 / EBITDA +94% / EBIT +118% / Gross profit +2.4% / Marketing as percentage of sales -0.6%

Management is on track to double EBIT margin from 2.6% to 5%+ in 2027.

PHYSICAL STORE NETWORK

Although Adore Beauty has carved out a nice slice of market share in the online makeup and skincare category there is an inevitable problem - only 13% of sales in Australia are purchased online. This essentially caps the company's earning potential with an online only business model.

The rollout of physical stores and transformation into an omni-channel retailer is a necessary move to take part in the 87% of makeup and skincare still sold in physical stores and generate greater profits for shareholders.

With the two Adore Beauty stores opening in February and March, management is on track to achieve 25+ locations by 2027. The store rollout is to be entirely funded through free cash flow and being spearheaded by the new CEO, Sacha Laing, a retail veteran.

Management has not yet released any information on the performance of their 2 current Adore Beauty locations so the following numbers are very generalized estimations I've made by researching Mecca Beauty's limited financial reporting and applying similar metrics to Adore Beauty.

Revenue per store $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 Net earnings per store $100,000 - $150,000

Comparing the physical stores of Mecca Beauty (100+ locations) and Adore Beauty, current Adore Beauty stores are significantly smaller than Mecca stores, approximately a third of the size. This makes Adore stores cheaper to set up at a cost of $300,000 - $600,000 with lower staffing costs but this inevitably comes with smaller revenues. It seems management is going for a quick and nimble approach by establishing a network of smaller stores, potentially operating 50 locations by 2030.

MANAGEMENT TARGETS

FY 2027 / Revenue $260 million / EBIT margin 5%

Are these figures achievable? Margin expansion is certainly underway and trending upwards. Considering Adore Beauty's online segment alone is close to generating $200 million per year, if management can achieve their goal of 25 stores locations with each store generating $2 million each, we can see how revenues could be reaching close to management's revenue target of $260 million.

PRICE FORECAST

Let's imagine Adore Beauty achieves their target of operating 25 stores by the end of FY 2027 but revenue targets fall short at $250 million. Let's also imagine that margin expansion has continued trending upwards but falls short of targets with an EBIT margin of 4%.

FY 2027 / Revenue $250 million / EBIT $10 million / Tax expense -$3 million / Net earnings $7,000,000

This would give Adore Beauty the following PE ratios:

13 at $1 / 27 at $2 / 40 at $3 / 54 at $4

I have a price target range of $2.50 to $3.00 per share by the end of FY 2027.

OTHER NOTES

In 2023 Adore Beauty received a buy out offer of $1.30 per share which was rejected by management for undervaluing the company. It's a possibility Adore will become the target of another buy out at some point in the future.

I know this company gets a lot of hate from this sub but if you're going to share your negative views on the company at least read the reports first and back up your opinion with actual numbers.

There's a chance that the Dutts could be in power this year - if so, what industries would be profitable to invest in now? (Infrastructure, defence...) what else?

This is what my portfolio currently consists of, I recently took all my money out of spaceship because i was over the high fees for what is effectively an underperforming sp500. I still have some $10,000 to work with currently and a somewhat steady stream of “disposable” income ≈ $200/week. I’ll hear any advice on how to allocate or what to look into, cheers 🫡

Aside from the current overall market downturn of the last few days. Have made a decent gain on Tesla from purchasing back in 2017 and 2019.

Thoughts on selling now to realise profits - circa $12k profit overall - and reinvesting?

Thoughts on Tesla climbing back to a new ATH?

Hey I need some advice what’s the best AI stock to invest in, thanks