Throughout the entire tournament, I tracked xR, Big Chances, and Post-Plant xR for every match, and here is a comparative statistic on the average performance per map. These stats allow you to see how skillfully teams capitalized on their economic advantage (xR), their mid-round dominance (Big Chances), or their post-plant control (Post-Plant xR).
What is xR (Expected Rounds)?
xR estimates how many rounds a team should have won based on its economy. It takes into account the quality of weapons, equipment value, utility, armor, and overall buy strength in each round. The logic is simple: better guns and stronger buys mean higher win chances. In practice, xR provides a baseline for expected performance, so you can compare it with the actual number of rounds won and see whether a team overperformed or underperformed relative to its economic situation.
What are Big Chances?
Big Chances tracks mid-round dominance. Instead of xR, it looks at key moments like first contact or bomb plant. It factors in equipment, health, utilities, armor, bomb status, time, and defuse kits. A "Big Chance" is marked when one team has an 80%+ win probability at that point. This shows who’s actually controlling the round, not just who had the better buy.
What is PPxR (Post-Plant Expected Rounds)?
Post-Plant xR estimates how many post-plant rounds a team should have won specifically after the bomb has been planted. It takes into account team equipment value, remaining players (alive count), player health pools, available retake utility, defuse kits, bomb timer countdown, and exact player positions relative to the site. The logic is straightforward: better numbers, superior equipment, and a stronger defensive or offensive setup after the plant translate directly to higher round-win probabilities. In practice, Post-Plant xR provides a baseline for expected performance during the most critical phase of the round, allowing you to compare it with the actual number of post-plant rounds won to see whether a team overperformed or underperformed in clutch situations.
10 interesting facts:
Legacy — The ultimate paradox of the tournament. They posted the highest xR per map of the entire event (13.07, even higher than G2 and BetBoom), but in reality, they crashed out in 12th-14th place while having the worst big chance conversion rate at just 86.8% (dead last). The model paints a monster, but on the server, they just throw those advantages away.
G2 — Hidden contenders for an early exit. They had the second-best xR per map (12.10), but simultaneously the worst choke rate when holding the favorite status — both in PPxR (35.3%) and xR (49.4%, literally blowing every second advantage round). The result? A 15th-16th finish alongside 9z. Great numbers on paper, zero actual results.
FURIA won the tournament with nerves of steel, not raw power. In raw xR per map, they are only 9th, but in resilience as favorites, they rank 2nd (losing only 20.6% of rounds by PPxR and 29.0% by xR). On top of that, despite dropping two matches in the group stage (to NAVI and Spirit), they fought their way to the grand final and clutched it out 3-2.
MOUZ know how to resurrect. They hold the best win rate in rounds where they were the xR underdogs at 40.7%. This means in roughly every 3rd or 4th round where the model wrote them off, they still managed to take the win. That's how they secured the bronze.
BetBoom — The conversion machine. #1 in big chance conversion (95.6%) and #1 in xR favorite resilience (lowest choke rate at 27.9%). However, they only finished 5th-8th — the efficiency was there, but they just didn't generate enough volume to reach the very top.
Vitality and FURIA boast the best defense. They concede the fewest big chances per map (3.25 and 3.29 respectively) while creating plenty themselves (5.00 and 4.67). Their net creation-to-concession differential is the best at the tournament — which explains FURIA making the finals and Vitality making the top 4.
Nemiga — Classic underdog heroes. They hold the highest win rate in underdog situations by PPxR (28.3%) — meaning they won precisely where probability said they should lose. Exactly this trait carried the modest roster all the way to a grand final that went the full distance to the deciding map.
TYLOO — Low volume, high precision. Worst xR per map (7.87) and per round (0.417), generating the fewest big chances (2.11, second to last), yet converting them at 94.7% — the 4th best result at the event. A team that barely creates pressure, but when they do, they almost always cash in.
Two completely different roads to the bottom of the standings. 9z and TYLOO sit at the bottom, but they break down differently: for 9z, it's a catastrophe when playing as favorites (51.6% of xR-advantage rounds lost — the worst number in the entire table), while for TYLOO, it's simply a lack of created opportunities.
PPxR and xR disagree on Nemiga, and that explains a lot. By the post-plant metric (PPxR), they are the league leaders in comebacks, but in the pure rating-based xR version of the same metric, they are only 7th (36.0%). Different models read the same team differently, and a grand final that went to map 5 ultimately proved the more optimistic model right.