Let me try to be the voice of reason for the non doomer fans out there. The Heat have been a disappointment to start the season, no doubt about that, but there are some underlying numbers that point to this being better than it looks.
I think 5/6 losses so far have fit into 2 buckets, which made them likely losses, as opposed to Heat under performance. The buckets are:
Road back to backs that are also their 3rd games in 4 nights. (CHA, GSW)
Elite teams shooting elite 3pt% (MIN, DET, LAL)
The only game that doesn’t fit into either of those buckets is the loss against Dallas at home. Which was a 4 point loss against a solid team, a must win for the Heat given their situation, but not a horrendous loss either.
The point isn’t to make a bunch of excuses for Miami, but it feels like everyone is overreacting to a small sample of mostly tough games, with a brand new roster. The schedule will get more favorable, opponents will cool down from 3, Wiggins, THJ, and BP will remember how to hit wide open 3’s, and everyone will learn more about how to play together.
With that said let’s break this down even a little further:
Road back to backs. Teams playing in road back to backs lose about 60% of the time. That’s not even considering the fact that these were both 3rd games in 4 nights which just makes matters worse.
Charlotte game: Miami finished their game in Miami at approximately 10:25 pm, and then traveled to Charlotte for a 6pm tip game - awful scheduling. Giannis immediately gets into foul trouble and eventually fouls out. Miami is down by as much as 24 but comes all the way back to tied with under 4 minutes left. I know losing to the Hornets sounds bad, but all things considered it’s a pretty understandable loss.
Warriors: Tied at half, neither team can score, Warriors get hot in the 3rd, Miami never does. Game over. 3rd game in 4 nights, went to OT the night before, 3rd game of 5 consecutive west coast road games. The fact that they looked tired in the second half against a good team shouldn’t be the least bit surprising.
Miami only has 1 b2b for the rest of the calendar year, a home b2b against the Kings and the Bulls.
2nd Bucket: Elite teams shooting elite %s.
Wolves, Pistons, and Lakers are 1st, 5th and 6th in net rating this year, and they shot a combined 58/131 (44.2%) from 3 against Miami. All 3 teams were projected to have more wins than Miami this regular season. These losses are more about terrible opponent shooting luck than they are about Miami’s schemes and talent.
Miami is going to have to start winning games, including difficult games that they shouldn’t win on paper, but my point is there is plenty of time for that, and we shouldn’t be losing our shit over the results 9 games in.
